TSLA - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

w*a2015-04-02 07:04

1 楼

At current price, I know it's down trend, I know people thinking it going
down.
1. New product coming out of end April, could be a game changer.
2. May ER. Could be a game changer.
Sales info could be found online, China weak sales could be true, could be
false, use your brain.
Bot a lot of calls. God bless me.

E*r2015-04-02 07:04

2 楼

Sure! Good luck! Try to be a little more prudent. There was a kind of
Tesla fever last year but now the wave starts to phase out. The main issue
is no meaningful new products are coming out. Model S itself cannot sustain
such a high share price. Investors are still enthusiastic but the passion
may soon turn into frustration if no game changer cars are popping up.
Remember the reality is this price has already factored in all the
optimistic speculation. Therefore, any possible adverse information will
make it extremely fragile. May god bless you but at the same time, be
prepared for the worst!

l*m2015-04-02 07:04

3 楼

Bless you.

【在 w*********a 的大作中提到】

: At current price, I know it's down trend, I know people thinking it going
: down.
: 1. New product coming out of end April, could be a game changer.
: 2. May ER. Could be a game changer.
: Sales info could be found online, China weak sales could be true, could be
: false, use your brain.
: Bot a lot of calls. God bless me.

w*a2015-04-02 07:04

4 楼

Thank you man. This is not about priced in or not, nor about enthusiastic or
passion, this about the capital market. The problem you see, I see,
everyone sees, but it's still trading at $190 level. Even though lower high
and lower lows, down trend, I agree. But don't you think the TSLA team is
some kind of rice bucket? Elon just tweet to maintain the share price? A lot
of people think like that, it's ok, it will tell. I think it comes to a
point where TSLA will make a huge up or down move, I prefer up. Why? Because
I think it will bling us in the next 1 or 2 months.

sustain

【在 E*********r 的大作中提到】

: Sure! Good luck! Try to be a little more prudent. There was a kind of
: Tesla fever last year but now the wave starts to phase out. The main issue
: is no meaningful new products are coming out. Model S itself cannot sustain
: such a high share price. Investors are still enthusiastic but the passion
: may soon turn into frustration if no game changer cars are popping up.
: Remember the reality is this price has already factored in all the
: optimistic speculation. Therefore, any possible adverse information will
: make it extremely fragile. May god bless you but at the same time, be
: prepared for the worst!

T*U2015-04-02 07:04

5 楼

correction，use my brain， god bless me

【在 w*********a 的大作中提到】

: At current price, I know it's down trend, I know people thinking it going
: down.
: 1. New product coming out of end April, could be a game changer.
: 2. May ER. Could be a game changer.
: Sales info could be found online, China weak sales could be true, could be
: false, use your brain.
: Bot a lot of calls. God bless me.

a*o2015-04-02 07:04

6 楼

假如电池可以象轮胎一样可以方便的更换；四处都有充电桩。电车就会变得比汽油车更
普遍。
石油会越来越少，越来越贵。电车是必然的趋势。

sustain

【在 E*********r 的大作中提到】

: Sure! Good luck! Try to be a little more prudent. There was a kind of
: Tesla fever last year but now the wave starts to phase out. The main issue
: is no meaningful new products are coming out. Model S itself cannot sustain
: such a high share price. Investors are still enthusiastic but the passion
: may soon turn into frustration if no game changer cars are popping up.
: Remember the reality is this price has already factored in all the
: optimistic speculation. Therefore, any possible adverse information will
: make it extremely fragile. May god bless you but at the same time, be
: prepared for the worst!

c*r2015-04-02 07:04

7 楼

I agree EV is the future happening. And I used to be a big fan of TSLA,
built my positions from 170, 150 to 122.
I liquidated all my positions on TSLA from 6 months ago. Why? I still
believe in EV but I am losing confidence in Musk and his team. They have
made some terrible execution errors in the past year that will take TSLA go
belly up if the direction is not corrected.
1. The delay in Model X and Model 3. TSLA needs to have at least 1 new model
coming out every 2 years to keep people excited about its brand and company.
2. Gigafactory is over ambitious and they should have taken advantage of
global supply chain just like Apple did so successfully.
3. TSLA flopped in Chinese market, and sees no path forward. Remember China
is the world's biggest car market. That is just inexcusable.
EV is the future. They will be better players for EV, but not TSLA.

【在 a****o 的大作中提到】

: 假如电池可以象轮胎一样可以方便的更换；四处都有充电桩。电车就会变得比汽油车更
: 普遍。
: 石油会越来越少，越来越贵。电车是必然的趋势。
:
: sustain

E*r2015-04-02 07:04

8 楼

这种情况我感觉在我们的有生之年或许看不到了。必然趋势和炒股是两码事情。我曾
经反复强调一点就是不要低估石油巨头在国会的游说能力。石油美元体系甚至于是美
国在世界强权的最重要的武器。发展电动车在技术上可以讲一点问题都没有，没有任
何干预的情况下，凭借现在的科学能力，不出半年充电问题、续航问题都可以迎刃而解
，但是在政治层面上是很难推广的。这也注定在今后很长的一段时间，电动车只能在
很小的规模内有所存在，因为石油巨头不会允许电动车普及的。

【在 a****o 的大作中提到】

: 假如电池可以象轮胎一样可以方便的更换；四处都有充电桩。电车就会变得比汽油车更
: 普遍。
: 石油会越来越少，越来越贵。电车是必然的趋势。
:
: sustain

E*r2015-04-02 07:04

9 楼

你的看法很有道理。所谓的特斯拉独门秘籍的电池技术其实是个笨办法。特斯拉是在
不惜成本的情况下搞出Model S，所谓富人的玩具，据说77%的购买者年收入都超10万美
元。所谓的成功只是在这个有钱人的圈子里，满足了一些人的好奇和新鲜感。 Game
Changer的产品我认为是Model 3, 这个市场是真正考验一个车企实力和能力的舞台。为
何Tesla一拖再拖，主要还是很难，甚至几乎不可能在成本和质量价格方面达成一个平
衡。

go
model
company.

【在 c********r 的大作中提到】

:
: I agree EV is the future happening. And I used to be a big fan of TSLA,
: built my positions from 170, 150 to 122.
: I liquidated all my positions on TSLA from 6 months ago. Why? I still
: believe in EV but I am losing confidence in Musk and his team. They have
: made some terrible execution errors in the past year that will take TSLA go
: belly up if the direction is not corrected.
: 1. The delay in Model X and Model 3. TSLA needs to have at least 1 new model
: coming out every 2 years to keep people excited about its brand and company.
: 2. Gigafactory is over ambitious and they should have taken advantage of

k*l2015-04-02 07:04

10 楼

居然还有23%收入不足十万的买 TSLA
这是真爱？

【在 E*********r 的大作中提到】

: 你的看法很有道理。所谓的特斯拉独门秘籍的电池技术其实是个笨办法。特斯拉是在
: 不惜成本的情况下搞出Model S，所谓富人的玩具，据说77%的购买者年收入都超10万美
: 元。所谓的成功只是在这个有钱人的圈子里，满足了一些人的好奇和新鲜感。 Game
: Changer的产品我认为是Model 3, 这个市场是真正考验一个车企实力和能力的舞台。为
: 何Tesla一拖再拖，主要还是很难，甚至几乎不可能在成本和质量价格方面达成一个平
: 衡。
:
: go
: model
: company.

k*l2015-04-02 07:04

11 楼

1。汽车毕竟不是苹果，两年出一个成功的模型不容易。
2。这个挺有道理，自己弄个这么大的电池厂万一技术更新全废了都有可能。估计他们
也特想找别人，可是实现起来不容易，谁都不想一不小心就被废了。不是出除了松下没
人做得出来这么个质量的电池没么。 tsla 自己做的前提是他们能承受的起万一
gigafactory 废了的代价。
3。对。model 3 暂时出不来，为他做准备的 model S, X 产能越来越高。中国现在的
作用是把 model 3 出来之前大部分产能都消耗掉。所以他们现在在中国的表现很不理
想。你觉得他们应该怎么做，或者开始该怎么做来着？

go
model
company.

【在 c********r 的大作中提到】

:
: I agree EV is the future happening. And I used to be a big fan of TSLA,
: built my positions from 170, 150 to 122.
: I liquidated all my positions on TSLA from 6 months ago. Why? I still
: believe in EV but I am losing confidence in Musk and his team. They have
: made some terrible execution errors in the past year that will take TSLA go
: belly up if the direction is not corrected.
: 1. The delay in Model X and Model 3. TSLA needs to have at least 1 new model
: coming out every 2 years to keep people excited about its brand and company.
: 2. Gigafactory is over ambitious and they should have taken advantage of

T*u2015-04-02 07:04

12 楼

go
model
company.
Why do you think there's no path forward for the China market? It doesn't
mean I don't have confidence in TSLA if I sold my position at 290. The
question is where do we go from here. All the negativities were reflected in
the stock price.

【在 c********r 的大作中提到】

:
: I agree EV is the future happening. And I used to be a big fan of TSLA,
: built my positions from 170, 150 to 122.
: I liquidated all my positions on TSLA from 6 months ago. Why? I still
: believe in EV but I am losing confidence in Musk and his team. They have
: made some terrible execution errors in the past year that will take TSLA go
: belly up if the direction is not corrected.
: 1. The delay in Model X and Model 3. TSLA needs to have at least 1 new model
: coming out every 2 years to keep people excited about its brand and company.
: 2. Gigafactory is over ambitious and they should have taken advantage of

p*e2015-04-02 07:04

13 楼

sales up 55% in 1st quarter

E*r2015-04-02 07:04

14 楼

All the negativities were reflected in the stock price???????
开玩笑吧！我怎么觉得所有好的因素全都被Priced In了。注意TESLA至今还是严重亏损
，没有赚到过钱，这个股价完全是靠炒作上涨的。苹果和Google为啥能够涨那么高，
人家一直在大赚！

in

【在 T******u 的大作中提到】

:
: go
: model
: company.
: Why do you think there's no path forward for the China market? It doesn't
: mean I don't have confidence in TSLA if I sold my position at 290. The
: question is where do we go from here. All the negativities were reflected in
: the stock price.

k*l2015-04-02 07:04

15 楼

为了bash一个股票咒自己活不长？
电灯至今才发明了100多年，家用电普及才不过几十年
小时候还有不少烧煤的火车呢，汽车就更晚了
另外你对技术太有信心（无知？）了，半年。。。

【在 E*********r 的大作中提到】

: 这种情况我感觉在我们的有生之年或许看不到了。必然趋势和炒股是两码事情。我曾
: 经反复强调一点就是不要低估石油巨头在国会的游说能力。石油美元体系甚至于是美
: 国在世界强权的最重要的武器。发展电动车在技术上可以讲一点问题都没有，没有任
: 何干预的情况下，凭借现在的科学能力，不出半年充电问题、续航问题都可以迎刃而解
: ，但是在政治层面上是很难推广的。这也注定在今后很长的一段时间，电动车只能在
: 很小的规模内有所存在，因为石油巨头不会允许电动车普及的。

M*n2015-04-02 07:04

16 楼

cases of apple and googles are good, opposite examples to show the
difference between EPS and growth.
For tech you look for growth potential -isn't that obvious?

【在 E*********r 的大作中提到】

: All the negativities were reflected in the stock price???????
: 开玩笑吧！我怎么觉得所有好的因素全都被Priced In了。注意TESLA至今还是严重亏损
: ，没有赚到过钱，这个股价完全是靠炒作上涨的。苹果和Google为啥能够涨那么高，
: 人家一直在大赚！
:
: in

f*t2015-04-02 07:04

17 楼

瞄了一眼TSLA图，下一站140有可能。

a*o2015-04-02 07:04

18 楼

原油储量远远没有你想象的那么乐观。原油过剩只是一个非常暂时性的情况。很快原油
产量的增长会跟不上需求。电车的发展和普及不会等到原油接近枯竭。另外，石油还是
化工原料。减少对石油燃料的需求，可以保证其化工品方面的需求。

【在 E*********r 的大作中提到】

: 你的看法很有道理。所谓的特斯拉独门秘籍的电池技术其实是个笨办法。特斯拉是在
: 不惜成本的情况下搞出Model S，所谓富人的玩具，据说77%的购买者年收入都超10万美
: 元。所谓的成功只是在这个有钱人的圈子里，满足了一些人的好奇和新鲜感。 Game
: Changer的产品我认为是Model 3, 这个市场是真正考验一个车企实力和能力的舞台。为
: 何Tesla一拖再拖，主要还是很难，甚至几乎不可能在成本和质量价格方面达成一个平
: 衡。
:
: go
: model
: company.

E*r2015-04-02 07:04

19 楼

石油可以用多久不好说，有人说还有200年，有人说才60年。今后的发展趋势很难预测
，一种比较靠谱的格局将会是燃油车占主导，电动车小范围内增长，出现其它能源的车
，出现其它的交通工具，燃油车的市场份额随着时间的推移一点点减少，其它能源的车
一点点增加。。。

w*a2015-04-02 07:04

20 楼

Sigh. If you did not buy at 185ish

E*r2015-04-02 07:04

21 楼

怎么了? 担心牛套？

f*e2015-04-02 07:04

22 楼

：）

【在 w*********a 的大作中提到】

: Sigh. If you did not buy at 185ish