根本不用看内容,这是吹响做空JMEI的号角。
Can Jumei Maintain Its Healthy Glow? -- Barron's Asia
Cosmetics companies love to use before and after shots to showcase the
restorative wonders of their lotions and potions.
In the case of beauty products e-tailer Jumei International Holding ( JMEI
), the contrast between mid-December, or before the makeover of the company
's business model was complete, and now is amazing. Shares of the Beijing -
listed company have surged a stunning 112% after management removed a major
wrinkle in its business model - the sale of fake products on its platform by
third party vendors.
The restructure of the business underpinned a bullish view on Jumei penned
by this column in mid-March, a time when the share price was showing signs
of a nascent recovery after having tumbled from a high of $US38 in August
to a low of around $12 in January. While acknowledging the hit to the
company's earnings from the strategy rejig, retooling the business model in
light of Beijing's crackdown on counterfeit goods seemed like a wise
choice. Investors clearly liked what we saw, but at 45 times projected
earnings, has the new look Jumei become a little too hot to handle?
Jumei's first quarter results, which were unveiled Thursday evening,
showed the changes made to the business are more than skin deep. The top
line has been revitalized, with a 62% year-on-year rise in net revenues to
$250.6 million , exceeding management guidance of between $224.5 million
and $232.3 million . The performance was underpinned by a 14.3% rise in the
number of active customers, which drove a 20.3% increase in gross
merchandise volume (GMV), or the total value of merchandise sold through an
e-commerce site.
The company also impressed with a plumper bottom line. Net income of $15.7
million , or $0.10 a share, exceeded the $ 0.09 a share consensus
forecast. Although the figure is down from $0.12 a share a year ago, it
was a solid rebound from the $0.07 a share Jumei posted in the prior
quarter and snapped a streak of sequential quarterly earnings declines in
the second half of 2014. There could be more good news to come, with the
company teasing investors with a forecast for second quarter revenues to
jump between 75% and 80% from the same time last year.
Management's optimism has been fueled by its Jumei Global business, which
launched last September. The new e-commerce platform is essentially an
online duty free store that sells foreign cosmetics brands directly sourced
overseas, rather than from a supplier in China , to Chinese consumers.
Jumei Global has been clocking strong growth and is expected to account for
half of Jumei's comestics GMV by the end of the year.
The latest batch of numbers could possibly help Jumei to add to the nearly
8% pop in its share price after research firm T.H. Capital initiated
coverage with a buy rating on Thursday ahead of the e-tailer's earnings
announcement. But some analysts are starting to experience vertigo from the
rapid rise in the company's share price over recent months. " Given the
strong share price move since the fourth quarter results, we believe much of
the upside from Jumei Global has already been priced in," writes HSBC
analyst Chi Tsang , who has a hold rating on Jumei with a target price of
$24 a share.
Currently trading at around $28 a share, Jumei is priced at a lofty 45.6
times projected earnings, which bumps against a five-year high of 45.8
times and more than doubles the 19 times the stock was fetching in mid-March
. Sure, Chinese internet stocks don't come cheap, but Jumei has also
levitated well past the valuations of its rivals. E-commerce giant Alibaba
( BABA ) trades at 32 times projected earnings, while fashion and cosmetics
e-tailer Vipshop ( VIPS ) fetches 41.9 times.
While Beijing seeking to boost domestic consumption will help the e-
commerce industry, an impending reduction of tariffs on popular imported
goods such as cosmetics and apparel could hurt Jumei's cross-border e-
commerce business. Because the e-tailer's warehouse is situated in the
Zhengzhou Free Trade Zone, Jumei pays a special import tax that's
estimated to be between 28 and 50 percentage points lower than standard
tariffs. The discount allows Jumei to sell foreign brands at cheaper
prices than rivals, giving it a competitive advantage. However, that
advantage would be eroded come June when import tariffs are expected to be
cut. "We think it would be partly negative to Jumei , as its Jumei Global
price gap with competitors will decline," argues HSBC's Tsang.
Jumei is also looking to a bigger pond for growth. The company recently
expanded Jumei Global's offerings beyond cosmetics to also include baby and
maternity products. While maternity gear has a market that's 10 times larger
than cosmetics, and also yields more repeat purchases, gross margins are
also markedly lower at only break-even or the low single digits, notes HSBC
's Tsang. That could put further pressure on Jumei's already narrowing
gross margins, which declined to 31.4% in the first quarter from 44.1% a
year ago. "We expect upside to GMV growth, but we remain concerned on
margins," opines Tsang.