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关于未来一年油价的想法

关于未来一年油价的想法# Stock

t*t2015-09-11 07:09

1 楼

小蝌蚪一枚，不敢说预测，只是提供一点想法供大家参考。
我觉得油价可能就在45－50之间波动一年左右，根据是墨西哥明年一半的出口产量买了
put option, 价格为49美元，option价格是5美元／桶，卖墨西哥 option 的是几个大
投行：花旗，摩根，高盛等。假如你对这几个大投行的分析预测有信心的话，同时墨西
哥也不傻，所以这应该是个合理的价格，从而可以算算石油的底在哪里，顶又在哪里？
这是链接：
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0QP0X020150820

N*s2015-09-11 07:09

2 楼

信投行,基本上就是一个个坑让你跳,

【在 t*******t 的大作中提到】

: 小蝌蚪一枚，不敢说预测，只是提供一点想法供大家参考。
: 我觉得油价可能就在45－50之间波动一年左右，根据是墨西哥明年一半的出口产量买了
: put option, 价格为49美元，option价格是5美元／桶，卖墨西哥 option 的是几个大
: 投行：花旗，摩根，高盛等。假如你对这几个大投行的分析预测有信心的话，同时墨西
: 哥也不傻，所以这应该是个合理的价格，从而可以算算石油的底在哪里，顶又在哪里？
: 这是链接：
: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0QP0X020150820

t*t2015-09-11 07:09

3 楼

不是信不信的问题，投行也是真金白银砸进去的，假如明年油价真的在20美元晃悠，那
这几个投行不得赔死。

【在 N******s 的大作中提到】

: 信投行,基本上就是一个个坑让你跳,

g*12015-09-11 07:09

4 楼

我想问一下，墨西哥的产量，和整个世界油市场相比占多少？如果只是很小的一部分，
谁在乎呢？

【在 t*******t 的大作中提到】

: 不是信不信的问题，投行也是真金白银砸进去的，假如明年油价真的在20美元晃悠，那
: 这几个投行不得赔死。

g*e2015-09-11 07:09

5 楼

头行说的不一定是它做的
特别是gs年初30
citi 20
之后
它们两说的我就当放屁
或者繁殖
[在 thinkaout (想想) 的大作中提到：]
：不是信不信的问题，投行也是真金白银砸进去的，假如明年油价真的在20美元晃悠，
那这几个投行不得赔死。
：【在 NYKnicks (Knicks) 的大作中提到: 】
：...........

s*h2015-09-11 07:09

6 楼

下面是 schlumberger CEO 关于下一年油价的分析, 刚发出来的，组后两段是结论
http://www.slb.com/news/presentations/2015/2015_0909_pkibsgaard
--------------------
So far this year, global GDP growth has faced a series of headwinds, but in
spite of slower US growth in the first quarter, uncertainty in the Eurozone
linked to Greece and a continuing slowdown in China, the growth is still
expected to end up around 2.6%.
Looking forward to 2016, the global GDP growth forecast is still higher than
2015 at 3.2% driven by stronger growth in the US.
In line with this, the IEA sees continued growth in global oil demand and
has, since March this year, upgraded growth estimates to 1.6 million barrels
per day in 2015 and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2016, even with
continued growth concerns in China.
And, while oil demand is revised upwards, the dramatic reductions in E&P
investments over the past year is starting to have an impact on the various
sources of oil supply.
In North America, 2015 full-year oil production will show growth year-over-
year, however, with E&P investments continuing to drop during the year and
production peaking already in April we expect either flat or lower full-year
production in 2016.
Non-OPEC, non-NAM supply will, in 2015, end up flat year-over-year, but we
expect it to decline in 2016 as the full impact of lower E&P investments is
felt in the aging production base.
Within OPEC, the significant growth in marketed supply is offset by an even
larger drop in spare capacity leaving OPEC’s total production capacity flat
to slightly down today versus 12 months ago, and excluding Iran, this trend
is not expected to change in the near, or even the medium term.
Based on this, the combined 2016 production outlook for the three global
supply sources is flat to down versus 2015, which given the strong demand
outlook, is why we maintain that the physical balance in the oil market
continues to tighten.
The flattening production we are now seeing is just the starting point of
what could come if E&P investments and oilfield activity is not increased
soon.
We believe that the market is currently under-estimating the oil industry’s
annual production replacement challenge, which is defined on one side by
the natural decline of the aging production base, and the demand growth on
the other side.
This supply gap is, each year, filled by investments made in the mature
production base to reduce the natural decline rate to a managed decline rate
, while investments in new reserves brings production back to the baseline
and addresses demand growth.
The magnitude of the annual production replacement challenge is in the range
of 8-10 million barrels per day, which is an order of magnitude higher than
the average growth in demand.
The dramatic reduction in global E&P investments will, with some delay, have
a significant impact on the industry’s ability to meet this significant
replacement challenge.
At this stage, we are still in the delay period with only early signs of a
weakening supply base, but the longer the investment cuts are upheld, the
more severe the impact will be on the replacement capacity.
------------
Based on this, we continue to expect upwards movement in oil prices, either
later this year or in the first part of next year, when the market fully
realizes the tightness of the physical balances and the pending supply
impact from lower investments.
We further believe that OPEC will continue to focus on protecting market
share and will aim to stabilize oil prices above where they are today, but
well below the $100 level, by shifting more of their spare capacity to
marketed production and potentially further helped by additional exports
from Iran.
-------------

【在 t*******t 的大作中提到】

T*R2015-09-11 07:09

7 楼

这个不一定和未来油价有必然联系。石油或是任何大宗商品生产商买看跌期权/期货保
护是非常正常的。至于具体的HEDGE价格，和未来油价有关，应该也和自己的生产成本
还有其他很多因素有关。
类似航空公司理论上都有买看涨期权来HEDGE油价上涨的影响。
举个例子吧，CHK 43%的天然气产量受到HEDGE保护。但是，保护的价格远远高于现在2.
6的天然气价格。
如果你以CHK的HEDGE价格来判断今天的天然气走势，那就吃大亏。

a*o2015-09-11 07:09

8 楼

投行只是中间商吧。到时候油价涨上来，超过50，买的put作废。如果油价低于45，买
put能赚钱。
你要是看去年八月的option交易，恐怕结论是今年的油价不会低于90。

：小蝌蚪一枚，不敢说预测，只是提供一点想法供大家参考。
：我觉得油价可能就在45－50之间波动一年左右，根据是墨西哥明年一半的出口产量买
了 put option, 价格为49美元，option价格是5美元／桶，卖墨西哥 option 的是几个
大投行：花旗，摩根，高盛等。假如你对这几个大投行的分析预测有信心的话，同时墨
西哥也不傻，所以这应该是个合理的价格，从而可以算算石油的底在哪里，顶又在哪里
？这是链接：