My wishful thinking---叶轮今天是这样做的 - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

My wishful thinking---叶轮今天是这样做的# Stock

a*12015-09-17 07:09

1 楼

Will increase interest rate of 0.25% and promise not to raise until 18-24
month later.
This will ease the market uncertainty, banks will have the breathing room
and Yellen will not lose credibility.
Market will have a broad welcome today and tomorrow. This will include the
emerging market and commodity.

a*u2015-09-17 07:09

2 楼

我也希望如此

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: Will increase interest rate of 0.25% and promise not to raise until 18-24
: month later.
: This will ease the market uncertainty, banks will have the breathing room
: and Yellen will not lose credibility.
: Market will have a broad welcome today and tomorrow. This will include the
: emerging market and commodity.

p*s2015-09-17 07:09

3 楼

你说那个promise我觉得不太可能。虽然加不加息我不知道

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: Will increase interest rate of 0.25% and promise not to raise until 18-24
: month later.
: This will ease the market uncertainty, banks will have the breathing room
: and Yellen will not lose credibility.
: Market will have a broad welcome today and tomorrow. This will include the
: emerging market and commodity.

c*t2015-09-17 07:09

4 楼

"promise"? 你以为叶大妈是说相声那

P*y2015-09-17 07:09

5 楼

民主投票决定的。当然也可以投票PROMISE。

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: Will increase interest rate of 0.25% and promise not to raise until 18-24
: month later.
: This will ease the market uncertainty, banks will have the breathing room
: and Yellen will not lose credibility.
: Market will have a broad welcome today and tomorrow. This will include the
: emerging market and commodity.

L*d2015-09-17 07:09

6 楼

joke of the day

z*32015-09-17 07:09

7 楼

哪有promise
只有16年底的target rate 还是estimate

w*u2015-09-17 07:09

8 楼

椰奶自己都不知道还能坐几年这个位置

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: Will increase interest rate of 0.25% and promise not to raise until 18-24
: month later.
: This will ease the market uncertainty, banks will have the breathing room
: and Yellen will not lose credibility.
: Market will have a broad welcome today and tomorrow. This will include the
: emerging market and commodity.

c*t2015-09-17 07:09

9 楼

叶大妈只要愿意，是有独裁权的

【在 P********y 的大作中提到】

: 民主投票决定的。当然也可以投票PROMISE。

a*12015-09-17 07:09

10 楼

In Sept 2012, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) declared its intent
to hold the federal funds rate – the interest rate that the Fed directly
controls – near zero "at least through mid-2015".
Now that was a strong promise. The similar wording can happen today.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/sep/13/ben-bernan

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: Will increase interest rate of 0.25% and promise not to raise until 18-24
: month later.
: This will ease the market uncertainty, banks will have the breathing room
: and Yellen will not lose credibility.
: Market will have a broad welcome today and tomorrow. This will include the
: emerging market and commodity.

p*s2015-09-17 07:09

11 楼

不是说不可能promise, 但是我觉得你说的这种可能性不太大。加个.25, 然后告诉大
家2年不加？那对市场的破坏力很大。

intent

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: In Sept 2012, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) declared its intent
: to hold the federal funds rate – the interest rate that the Fed directly
: controls – near zero "at least through mid-2015".
: Now that was a strong promise. The similar wording can happen today.
: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/sep/13/ben-bernan

z*32015-09-17 07:09

12 楼

"intent" to hold 是Fed的词
promise是卫报的媒体解读
分析清楚不然容易亏费
Fed 需要忠实履行职责就是盯住就业和CPI 以及一些辅助数据制定rate政策
实际数据变了它也得跟着变
它不是政府对选民对市场承诺的概念

intent

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: In Sept 2012, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) declared its intent
: to hold the federal funds rate – the interest rate that the Fed directly
: controls – near zero "at least through mid-2015".
: Now that was a strong promise. The similar wording can happen today.
: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/sep/13/ben-bernan

p*s2015-09-17 07:09

13 楼

不知道今天会不会改变Reinvestment policy, let's see see

a*12015-09-17 07:09

14 楼

如果叶轮说intend to keep interest rate at 0.25% for 18-24 years, that is as
good a promise as it can be.

【在 z**********3 的大作中提到】

: "intent" to hold 是Fed的词
: promise是卫报的媒体解读
: 分析清楚不然容易亏费
: Fed 需要忠实履行职责就是盯住就业和CPI 以及一些辅助数据制定rate政策
: 实际数据变了它也得跟着变
: 它不是政府对选民对市场承诺的概念
:
: intent

z*32015-09-17 07:09

15 楼

如果决定加息了
再cease reinvestment 下手有点过狠
15年也就加一次息这个可以留着当后手

【在 p*****s 的大作中提到】

: 不知道今天会不会改变Reinvestment policy, let's see see

s*d2015-09-17 07:09

16 楼

★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.8

【在 z**********3 的大作中提到】

: 如果决定加息了
: 再cease reinvestment 下手有点过狠
: 15年也就加一次息这个可以留着当后手

s*d2015-09-17 07:09

17 楼

reinvestment应该不会变这个是个大变化要cease 应该会吹风很久的

★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.8

【在 z**********3 的大作中提到】

: 如果决定加息了
: 再cease reinvestment 下手有点过狠
: 15年也就加一次息这个可以留着当后手

p*s2015-09-17 07:09

18 楼

可不可能倒过来？

【在 z**********3 的大作中提到】

: 如果决定加息了
: 再cease reinvestment 下手有点过狠
: 15年也就加一次息这个可以留着当后手

s*d2015-09-17 07:09

19 楼

耶伦最近一次对于reinvestment 的表态还是7月中表示目前还没有开始考虑。倒过来
的话对市场是一个大大的surprise

★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.8

【在 p*****s 的大作中提到】

: 可不可能倒过来？

z*32015-09-17 07:09

20 楼

也许
不过市场估计不买账不信
就像约炮一见面男的就对女的说我爱你一辈子
一辈子太久 24months， i suppose you mean 对变化的美国经济又何尝不是叶轮没
法控制
万一两年内CPI大涨比如到4% 她就不能keep promise不继续加息
所以男的应该说希望和你渡过难忘的一晚女的就得你靠谱就从了

as

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: 如果叶轮说intend to keep interest rate at 0.25% for 18-24 years, that is as
: good a promise as it can be.

a*12015-09-17 07:09

21 楼

还是你这个靠谱。

【在 z**********3 的大作中提到】

: 也许
: 不过市场估计不买账不信
: 就像约炮一见面男的就对女的说我爱你一辈子
: 一辈子太久 24months， i suppose you mean 对变化的美国经济又何尝不是叶轮没
: 法控制
: 万一两年内CPI大涨比如到4% 她就不能keep promise不继续加息
: 所以男的应该说希望和你渡过难忘的一晚女的就得你靠谱就从了
:
: as