w*8
15 楼
别信,这里面没包括房价
[在 guesswsn (guess) 的大作中提到:]
:从12年到现在 inflation rate一直在2%以下
:
:...........
[在 guesswsn (guess) 的大作中提到:]
:从12年到现在 inflation rate一直在2%以下
:
:...........
B*e
22 楼
Market is supported by excess cash. However, unless the Fed shrinks its
balance sheet or raise rate significantly, those cash cannot go anywhere
else. So there will be swings. Some day people panic and the market goes
down. Then people do not have good use of cash and so have to reinvest in
the stock market again and the market goes up. A scenario like 2008 and 2009
is only possible if the money supply gets reduced or if the real economic
fundamentals is much worse than that in 08 or 09.
balance sheet or raise rate significantly, those cash cannot go anywhere
else. So there will be swings. Some day people panic and the market goes
down. Then people do not have good use of cash and so have to reinvest in
the stock market again and the market goes up. A scenario like 2008 and 2009
is only possible if the money supply gets reduced or if the real economic
fundamentals is much worse than that in 08 or 09.
c*e
23 楼
the market has been popped up by excess liquidity, this is not news. the
thing is, this is a bubble, not real recovery, everyone knows that, but
every is betting they can make the killing before the party is over.
2009
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: Market is supported by excess cash. However, unless the Fed shrinks its
: balance sheet or raise rate significantly, those cash cannot go anywhere
: else. So there will be swings. Some day people panic and the market goes
: down. Then people do not have good use of cash and so have to reinvest in
: the stock market again and the market goes up. A scenario like 2008 and 2009
: is only possible if the money supply gets reduced or if the real economic
: fundamentals is much worse than that in 08 or 09.
thing is, this is a bubble, not real recovery, everyone knows that, but
every is betting they can make the killing before the party is over.
2009
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: Market is supported by excess cash. However, unless the Fed shrinks its
: balance sheet or raise rate significantly, those cash cannot go anywhere
: else. So there will be swings. Some day people panic and the market goes
: down. Then people do not have good use of cash and so have to reinvest in
: the stock market again and the market goes up. A scenario like 2008 and 2009
: is only possible if the money supply gets reduced or if the real economic
: fundamentals is much worse than that in 08 or 09.
B*e
24 楼
The question remains: with so many excess money, where else would you put?
There will be downs, but not as dramatic as in 08 or 09 unless 1) Fed
decreased money supply drastically or 2) China is not growing.
【在 c********e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: the market has been popped up by excess liquidity, this is not news. the
: thing is, this is a bubble, not real recovery, everyone knows that, but
: every is betting they can make the killing before the party is over.
:
: 2009
There will be downs, but not as dramatic as in 08 or 09 unless 1) Fed
decreased money supply drastically or 2) China is not growing.
【在 c********e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: the market has been popped up by excess liquidity, this is not news. the
: thing is, this is a bubble, not real recovery, everyone knows that, but
: every is betting they can make the killing before the party is over.
:
: 2009
S*n
25 楼
现在还有国外的钱也来了.
2009
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: Market is supported by excess cash. However, unless the Fed shrinks its
: balance sheet or raise rate significantly, those cash cannot go anywhere
: else. So there will be swings. Some day people panic and the market goes
: down. Then people do not have good use of cash and so have to reinvest in
: the stock market again and the market goes up. A scenario like 2008 and 2009
: is only possible if the money supply gets reduced or if the real economic
: fundamentals is much worse than that in 08 or 09.
2009
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: Market is supported by excess cash. However, unless the Fed shrinks its
: balance sheet or raise rate significantly, those cash cannot go anywhere
: else. So there will be swings. Some day people panic and the market goes
: down. Then people do not have good use of cash and so have to reinvest in
: the stock market again and the market goes up. A scenario like 2008 and 2009
: is only possible if the money supply gets reduced or if the real economic
: fundamentals is much worse than that in 08 or 09.
c*e
26 楼
even in 08, there was still money out there, just people didn't want to put
them into stocks, so they ended up parking their money in money market, I
still remember at times the money market had negative interest rate, meaning
you let others to borrow your money and you even need to pay them for doing
that. That's crazy!
the market is all about animal spirits, nothing more nothing less. with that
, I cannot say for sure that money can solve all the problems.
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: The question remains: with so many excess money, where else would you put?
: There will be downs, but not as dramatic as in 08 or 09 unless 1) Fed
: decreased money supply drastically or 2) China is not growing.
them into stocks, so they ended up parking their money in money market, I
still remember at times the money market had negative interest rate, meaning
you let others to borrow your money and you even need to pay them for doing
that. That's crazy!
the market is all about animal spirits, nothing more nothing less. with that
, I cannot say for sure that money can solve all the problems.
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: The question remains: with so many excess money, where else would you put?
: There will be downs, but not as dramatic as in 08 or 09 unless 1) Fed
: decreased money supply drastically or 2) China is not growing.
B*e
27 楼
But the balance sheet of Fed is much larger than in 08, which is preventing
stock from reaching the level of 08. I have no doubt there may be a 20%
correction, but down 50% like in 08 or 09 is impossible in my opinion.
put
meaning
doing
that
【在 c********e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: even in 08, there was still money out there, just people didn't want to put
: them into stocks, so they ended up parking their money in money market, I
: still remember at times the money market had negative interest rate, meaning
: you let others to borrow your money and you even need to pay them for doing
: that. That's crazy!
: the market is all about animal spirits, nothing more nothing less. with that
: , I cannot say for sure that money can solve all the problems.
stock from reaching the level of 08. I have no doubt there may be a 20%
correction, but down 50% like in 08 or 09 is impossible in my opinion.
put
meaning
doing
that
【在 c********e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: even in 08, there was still money out there, just people didn't want to put
: them into stocks, so they ended up parking their money in money market, I
: still remember at times the money market had negative interest rate, meaning
: you let others to borrow your money and you even need to pay them for doing
: that. That's crazy!
: the market is all about animal spirits, nothing more nothing less. with that
: , I cannot say for sure that money can solve all the problems.
g*n
28 楼
你忘了还有债券市场,现在很多企业用股票做抵押来放债,因为利息低,企业借债已经成
了习惯 如果股票跌20%,这些债券全部要见外婆,这个正反馈起来了 那估计好日子就一
眼望不到头了
preventing
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: But the balance sheet of Fed is much larger than in 08, which is preventing
: stock from reaching the level of 08. I have no doubt there may be a 20%
: correction, but down 50% like in 08 or 09 is impossible in my opinion.
:
: put
: meaning
: doing
: that
了习惯 如果股票跌20%,这些债券全部要见外婆,这个正反馈起来了 那估计好日子就一
眼望不到头了
preventing
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: But the balance sheet of Fed is much larger than in 08, which is preventing
: stock from reaching the level of 08. I have no doubt there may be a 20%
: correction, but down 50% like in 08 or 09 is impossible in my opinion.
:
: put
: meaning
: doing
: that
c*e
29 楼
a few weeks ago, we just saw dow all time high and nasdaq almost caught up
with their highs in 2000 ...
I cannot and will not make any prediction, all I know is that we have a
bumpy road ahead, since this has been a mess that we are all in.
preventing
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: But the balance sheet of Fed is much larger than in 08, which is preventing
: stock from reaching the level of 08. I have no doubt there may be a 20%
: correction, but down 50% like in 08 or 09 is impossible in my opinion.
:
: put
: meaning
: doing
: that
with their highs in 2000 ...
I cannot and will not make any prediction, all I know is that we have a
bumpy road ahead, since this has been a mess that we are all in.
preventing
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: But the balance sheet of Fed is much larger than in 08, which is preventing
: stock from reaching the level of 08. I have no doubt there may be a 20%
: correction, but down 50% like in 08 or 09 is impossible in my opinion.
:
: put
: meaning
: doing
: that
B*e
32 楼
Money flows into bond market because there is no way to go. Fed's easy-money
policies are creating all those bubbles, but unless the easy money is over,
the bust of the bubble is limited. The bond are all long-term so there is
no short-term rollover risk.
【在 g******n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 你忘了还有债券市场,现在很多企业用股票做抵押来放债,因为利息低,企业借债已经成
: 了习惯 如果股票跌20%,这些债券全部要见外婆,这个正反馈起来了 那估计好日子就一
: 眼望不到头了
:
: preventing
policies are creating all those bubbles, but unless the easy money is over,
the bust of the bubble is limited. The bond are all long-term so there is
no short-term rollover risk.
【在 g******n 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 你忘了还有债券市场,现在很多企业用股票做抵押来放债,因为利息低,企业借债已经成
: 了习惯 如果股票跌20%,这些债券全部要见外婆,这个正反馈起来了 那估计好日子就一
: 眼望不到头了
:
: preventing
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