TA Guru, please help on short term trend of TAL - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

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TA Guru, please help on short term trend of TAL

TA Guru, please help on short term trend of TAL# Stock

m*12015-10-15 07:10

1 楼

Hi, board:
Find an interesting stock: TAL with exceptional low PE (less than 5)and high
dividend yield (above 15%) and amazing cash flow. Long term for sure will
be good, if not great. It will take many bad luck combined for the stock to
go bad in business operation.
However, the stock had been diving in the last few months (more than 60%
loss in stock price) and reached series 52 weeks low until recent 30%
bounce. We know for sure the stock is oversold and most likely it's in the
hands of brutal market maker.
I already invested heavily in the stock but is debating whether to use
margin and how much margin (2x or 4x). Can any TA guru on the board help to
analysis the chart and provide your comments whether the stock had bottom
out and in the upward channel?
I did tried to look at the chart and done my TA analysis. However, I'm a FA
guy and spend so much time on the fundamental and chart; I could be biased
or even blinded. This is why I'm seeking help from the boards as there are
so many tech guru here.
Greatly appreciate your help.

f*e2015-10-15 07:10

2 楼

By just looking at the numbers, TAL has negative growth in EPS and huge debt
. May not be a good choice for long term either. I didn't spend more time
other than looking at the key statistics so it may be possible that there
are reasons to believe the negative growth is temporary and the company is
fundamentally healthy in the long term. However, the diving in the past
months may indicate something changed fundamentally in the company.

m*12015-10-15 07:10

3 楼

TAL is in commercial leasing company and the debt ratio of course is way
higher than other industries. Yes, the EPS is flat in the past year, but if
you read the financial statements, the company had been recording tax
provision but had half billion NOL to be used (which means the quickest time
the company pay cash tax is about 10 years away), so true PE should be
around 3-3.5, which is way to low.
The company's income coming from two parts: leasing cargo container (95% of
the business) and sold unusable leasing container (5% of the business).
Because the recent collapse in metal price, the unusable container now
selling in loss while in prior years, it was selling in gain. the core
business still growing 3-5% annually.
Also the PE of the stock is the lowest in the industry.
Every stock has its own risk. In my opinion, for a stock with exceptional
low PE to take a bloody bath for being flat, it's an opportunity.
BTW, as I mentioned in the original post, this stock is in the hand of
brutal market maker. Be careful to jump in.

debt

【在 f*******e 的大作中提到】

: By just looking at the numbers, TAL has negative growth in EPS and huge debt
: . May not be a good choice for long term either. I didn't spend more time
: other than looking at the key statistics so it may be possible that there
: are reasons to believe the negative growth is temporary and the company is
: fundamentally healthy in the long term. However, the diving in the past
: months may indicate something changed fundamentally in the company.

f*e2015-10-15 07:10

4 楼

Thanks for explaining all these. So basically TAL is providing services for
commodity. Commodity has been in a big bear market for quite some time
therefore TAL got hit pretty bad. I wouldn't really blame any "market maker"
for the dive. It matches with the big picture pretty well and the sell off
is at least short term justified.
What I think is, we need to see commodity enters a new bull market to see
TAL goes up. When will that happen I do not know. The commodity bear market
is largely attributed to China's slowdown, especially in infrastructure and
industrial expansion. So a signal or a reversal could still tie closely with
China. It may be close, it may be far from now. Therefore I really don't
think you should use margin. Wait for that signal, then perhaps you can use
your leverages.

if
time
of

【在 m******1 的大作中提到】

: TAL is in commercial leasing company and the debt ratio of course is way
: higher than other industries. Yes, the EPS is flat in the past year, but if
: you read the financial statements, the company had been recording tax
: provision but had half billion NOL to be used (which means the quickest time
: the company pay cash tax is about 10 years away), so true PE should be
: around 3-3.5, which is way to low.
: The company's income coming from two parts: leasing cargo container (95% of
: the business) and sold unusable leasing container (5% of the business).
: Because the recent collapse in metal price, the unusable container now
: selling in loss while in prior years, it was selling in gain. the core

m*12015-10-15 07:10

5 楼

the core business is the container leasing (95%), not commodity, the only
part the business is impacted by the commodity market is the unusable
containers to be recycled by the metal companies. Before, it can be sold for
a good price with gain, now it's a loss. That's the extend of impact of
commodity price to the business.

for
maker"
off
market
and
with

【在 f*******e 的大作中提到】

: Thanks for explaining all these. So basically TAL is providing services for
: commodity. Commodity has been in a big bear market for quite some time
: therefore TAL got hit pretty bad. I wouldn't really blame any "market maker"
: for the dive. It matches with the big picture pretty well and the sell off
: is at least short term justified.
: What I think is, we need to see commodity enters a new bull market to see
: TAL goes up. When will that happen I do not know. The commodity bear market
: is largely attributed to China's slowdown, especially in infrastructure and
: industrial expansion. So a signal or a reversal could still tie closely with
: China. It may be close, it may be far from now. Therefore I really don't

g*t2015-10-15 07:10

6 楼

这个票13.5的时候的量很大。说明很多人同意13.5这个价格。
我要是你，不会买。耐心等新低即可。如果是长线投资，等半年择时间进货也是可以的
。或者你现在先少量买。

high
to

【在 m******1 的大作中提到】

: Hi, board:
: Find an interesting stock: TAL with exceptional low PE (less than 5)and high
: dividend yield (above 15%) and amazing cash flow. Long term for sure will
: be good, if not great. It will take many bad luck combined for the stock to
: go bad in business operation.
: However, the stock had been diving in the last few months (more than 60%
: loss in stock price) and reached series 52 weeks low until recent 30%
: bounce. We know for sure the stock is oversold and most likely it's in the
: hands of brutal market maker.
: I already invested heavily in the stock but is debating whether to use

f*e2015-10-15 07:10

7 楼

If commodity is in bear market and less people needs to ship their goods,
who will lease TAL's containers?

for

【在 m******1 的大作中提到】

: the core business is the container leasing (95%), not commodity, the only
: part the business is impacted by the commodity market is the unusable
: containers to be recycled by the metal companies. Before, it can be sold for
: a good price with gain, now it's a loss. That's the extend of impact of
: commodity price to the business.
:
: for
: maker"
: off
: market

f*e2015-10-15 07:10

8 楼

And just another advice, if you're going long term, under no circumstances
use margin. It would be much better if you transfer more cash to your
account and buy the stock.

m*12015-10-15 07:10

9 楼

the company are leasing container for international trade, which is doing
just fine, buddy. As I said, the only part the company is not doing well is
the gain/loss on dispose of unusable containers as the metal price collapse.
Before, there was gain recorded, now turn slight loss in disposal. However,
the business is still doing well, expect more than 0.75 Q3 net income.

【在 f*******e 的大作中提到】

: If commodity is in bear market and less people needs to ship their goods,
: who will lease TAL's containers?
:
: for