d*r
3 楼
你又为何见不得别人相反的意见?
l*t
8 楼
古板难道不是讨论投资?投资不能想当然吧?大家都是拿事实说话吧。现在的情况是有
些像falling knife. 从投资角度这也没错啊?和64有什么关系?你倒是挺像文革过来
的,先扣个政治不正确的帽子,大家还有什么好说的?其实这个问题还是资金说话,看
看那些聪明钱在干嘛呗?有人算了说中国加比利时,9月份又抛了几百亿国债,外流接
近1200亿。谁不想自己祖国好,在外边能挺起腰?但是大家讨论别扣帽子好不?
【在 C*****5 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 此话并不正确。老将还是以经历过64的人居多。所谓没有无缘无故的恨。
: 8090后经历过的TG比较正面,基本上改革开放经济发展最受益的一群人。所以以小将为
: 主。
: 老将老是希望中国崩溃就是想让小将也受他们受过的罪,然后改变立场站到他们一边。
: 所以老将说他们也是为了中国好小将觉得是扯淡。
: 老将小将这个矛盾是结构性的。无解。不过老将平均年龄53。马上进入退休高峰。等他
: 们退了这个世界就清静了。
l*t
9 楼
确实想讨论下,找不到刚才那个帖子了,说起房地产,找不到三四线城市的分开数据,
我只能挑一些典型的三四线城市,自己去查,这是一个比较典型的中部三线城市,大家
看看,大家要是有啥也请分享下。
【在 l*********t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
:
: 古板难道不是讨论投资?投资不能想当然吧?大家都是拿事实说话吧。现在的情况是有
: 些像falling knife. 从投资角度这也没错啊?和64有什么关系?你倒是挺像文革过来
: 的,先扣个政治不正确的帽子,大家还有什么好说的?其实这个问题还是资金说话,看
: 看那些聪明钱在干嘛呗?有人算了说中国加比利时,9月份又抛了几百亿国债,外流接
: 近1200亿。谁不想自己祖国好,在外边能挺起腰?但是大家讨论别扣帽子好不?
我只能挑一些典型的三四线城市,自己去查,这是一个比较典型的中部三线城市,大家
看看,大家要是有啥也请分享下。
【在 l*********t 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
:
: 古板难道不是讨论投资?投资不能想当然吧?大家都是拿事实说话吧。现在的情况是有
: 些像falling knife. 从投资角度这也没错啊?和64有什么关系?你倒是挺像文革过来
: 的,先扣个政治不正确的帽子,大家还有什么好说的?其实这个问题还是资金说话,看
: 看那些聪明钱在干嘛呗?有人算了说中国加比利时,9月份又抛了几百亿国债,外流接
: 近1200亿。谁不想自己祖国好,在外边能挺起腰?但是大家讨论别扣帽子好不?
l*t
10 楼
所以有人说,如果不能在世界范围内分散投资,只在国内的话,最好还是一线及部分二
线城市的核心区块的商品住房,比如说好学区,离轨道交通近,等...将来也许能跑赢
通胀,只从
现在的数据,滞胀可能性是最大的。即便对写字楼,也不是很建议。不知楼主家在哪一
类城市,能否具体情况具体分析下?
线城市的核心区块的商品住房,比如说好学区,离轨道交通近,等...将来也许能跑赢
通胀,只从
现在的数据,滞胀可能性是最大的。即便对写字楼,也不是很建议。不知楼主家在哪一
类城市,能否具体情况具体分析下?
s*i
13 楼
经济下行压力大,新常态,是党中央说的,你要反党么?
d*1
15 楼
我看好啊,可是我手力没有中国股诶
l*t
16 楼
这无所谓,关键还要考虑其他因素,比如说人口流入流出,年龄结构, 房屋保有量等。
有数据说整个市场上大概是6亿平米在售,60亿左右在建,刚需大概是每年五百万到七
百万套住房,全部消化需要10年,(仅靠记忆的,大概这么多,数量级肯定不会错),考
虑到人口构成,二手房的释放,所以我觉得得分类对待,但对三四线城市来说,迄今的
数据还是说明这是falling knife. 还有一个,房屋流动性比较差,其实不适合现在投
资,尤其是把钱投回去,怕被关门打狗,也许SDR决议之前问题不大?但确实值得考虑。
【在 C*****5 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 我可以说房子便宜了,大家有闲钱消费了吗?
: 我还能说跌不动了,反弹一触即发?
: 无论怎么看就是看不出崩溃的意思咋办?
有数据说整个市场上大概是6亿平米在售,60亿左右在建,刚需大概是每年五百万到七
百万套住房,全部消化需要10年,(仅靠记忆的,大概这么多,数量级肯定不会错),考
虑到人口构成,二手房的释放,所以我觉得得分类对待,但对三四线城市来说,迄今的
数据还是说明这是falling knife. 还有一个,房屋流动性比较差,其实不适合现在投
资,尤其是把钱投回去,怕被关门打狗,也许SDR决议之前问题不大?但确实值得考虑。
【在 C*****5 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 我可以说房子便宜了,大家有闲钱消费了吗?
: 我还能说跌不动了,反弹一触即发?
: 无论怎么看就是看不出崩溃的意思咋办?
M*n
18 楼
刚才的帖子
@ 中国的经济转型大有希望
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Stock/36416479.html
【在 l*********t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 确实想讨论下,找不到刚才那个帖子了,说起房地产,找不到三四线城市的分开数据,
: 我只能挑一些典型的三四线城市,自己去查,这是一个比较典型的中部三线城市,大家
: 看看,大家要是有啥也请分享下。
@ 中国的经济转型大有希望
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Stock/36416479.html
【在 l*********t 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 确实想讨论下,找不到刚才那个帖子了,说起房地产,找不到三四线城市的分开数据,
: 我只能挑一些典型的三四线城市,自己去查,这是一个比较典型的中部三线城市,大家
: 看看,大家要是有啥也请分享下。
B*e
20 楼
我搞不好年龄比你还小,但是我看问题从来不会因为自己得了多少利就幼稚地说谁好。
你得了1块钱的利,但是你本可以得100块钱的,凭什么帮着得了100块钱利的人说话?
我就是早早看透了这一点才来到国外的。
【在 C*****5 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 此话并不正确。老将还是以经历过64的人居多。所谓没有无缘无故的恨。
: 8090后经历过的TG比较正面,基本上改革开放经济发展最受益的一群人。所以以小将为
: 主。
: 老将老是希望中国崩溃就是想让小将也受他们受过的罪,然后改变立场站到他们一边。
: 所以老将说他们也是为了中国好小将觉得是扯淡。
: 老将小将这个矛盾是结构性的。无解。不过老将平均年龄53。马上进入退休高峰。等他
: 们退了这个世界就清静了。
你得了1块钱的利,但是你本可以得100块钱的,凭什么帮着得了100块钱利的人说话?
我就是早早看透了这一点才来到国外的。
【在 C*****5 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 此话并不正确。老将还是以经历过64的人居多。所谓没有无缘无故的恨。
: 8090后经历过的TG比较正面,基本上改革开放经济发展最受益的一群人。所以以小将为
: 主。
: 老将老是希望中国崩溃就是想让小将也受他们受过的罪,然后改变立场站到他们一边。
: 所以老将说他们也是为了中国好小将觉得是扯淡。
: 老将小将这个矛盾是结构性的。无解。不过老将平均年龄53。马上进入退休高峰。等他
: 们退了这个世界就清静了。
l*t
21 楼
谢了,这是我发在刚才帖子的,在这个帖子再发一遍,其实,真的有能力的话,应该跟
着领导走,查下AB的套路,资产外移,负债人民币化才是真牛。
当然希望大家共赴国难,但是对有能力的人来说,为家庭考虑,还是应该有几手准备,
不为挣钱,只是未雨绸缪,狡兔还有三窟呢。这才是该从那个拖拉机压大街吸取到的教
训,永远别高估某团体底线. 至于其他的,能有多少人有切身之痛呢?总共千人?百分
比是很小,毕竟总数十几亿人呢。但也请不要对那些人冷嘲热讽,他们也算是为了民族
做过抗争。
【在 M***n 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 刚才的帖子
: @ 中国的经济转型大有希望
: http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Stock/36416479.html
g*t
22 楼
你显然没参与过去十几年国内的发展。
现在刚投入,所以wishful thinking还能再高潮30年。
现在人民币多的,都是逃顶思维。我没看到一个cash多的不琢磨
换美元移民的。
你是看着过去几十年发财的人多了,脑子发热。
但现在不是好时候。
过去定期利息5%,人民币稳定升值的时候你不懂参与
火热的国内经济。现在就别接飞刀了。
【在 C*****5 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 此话并不正确。老将还是以经历过64的人居多。所谓没有无缘无故的恨。
: 8090后经历过的TG比较正面,基本上改革开放经济发展最受益的一群人。所以以小将为
: 主。
: 老将老是希望中国崩溃就是想让小将也受他们受过的罪,然后改变立场站到他们一边。
: 所以老将说他们也是为了中国好小将觉得是扯淡。
: 老将小将这个矛盾是结构性的。无解。不过老将平均年龄53。马上进入退休高峰。等他
: 们退了这个世界就清静了。
现在刚投入,所以wishful thinking还能再高潮30年。
现在人民币多的,都是逃顶思维。我没看到一个cash多的不琢磨
换美元移民的。
你是看着过去几十年发财的人多了,脑子发热。
但现在不是好时候。
过去定期利息5%,人民币稳定升值的时候你不懂参与
火热的国内经济。现在就别接飞刀了。
【在 C*****5 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 此话并不正确。老将还是以经历过64的人居多。所谓没有无缘无故的恨。
: 8090后经历过的TG比较正面,基本上改革开放经济发展最受益的一群人。所以以小将为
: 主。
: 老将老是希望中国崩溃就是想让小将也受他们受过的罪,然后改变立场站到他们一边。
: 所以老将说他们也是为了中国好小将觉得是扯淡。
: 老将小将这个矛盾是结构性的。无解。不过老将平均年龄53。马上进入退休高峰。等他
: 们退了这个世界就清静了。
t*3
25 楼
顶层的富人们肯定想的是移民或者保护财产。但是大部分中层或者中上层中国人并没有
想那么多,或者说,没有能力想那么多。
大家都是读书工作出来的(考虑到ABC或者很小移民的上这里来的人不多),大家国内
的同学,大学本科/研究生毕业5年的还在起步,毕业10-20年的,大部分人脑袋里面还
是想的是给自己孩子(小学中学大学)规划实施一个不错的发展路线,例如买学区房、
上重点中学,怎么考好的大学或者出国留学。大家的同学在国内确实是吃喝玩乐加上抱
怨,所谓痛并快乐着。
我也看好中国长远的发展,从身为中国人的角度来讲肯定是这个倾向。但是从股票交易
投资来讲,A股上6-7月份大跌前或者刚开始的时候能跑不跑的肯定是傻;现在重回3400
点了,不减仓或者不出来观望观望的还是有点傻;除了一线城市以外还乱买投资房或者
放高利贷的还是傻。长线观点和中短线行为出现矛盾是一个正常现象。
所以,看好还是不看好中国经济,得多拿点东西或者数据来分析才靠谱。这种长线看好
,本身很难用来指导现在的具体投资,哪怕是买房,也不是因为看好中国经济发展就冲
进去买的。
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 他说得是胡润财富报告公布的结果,也和我看到的相符。
想那么多,或者说,没有能力想那么多。
大家都是读书工作出来的(考虑到ABC或者很小移民的上这里来的人不多),大家国内
的同学,大学本科/研究生毕业5年的还在起步,毕业10-20年的,大部分人脑袋里面还
是想的是给自己孩子(小学中学大学)规划实施一个不错的发展路线,例如买学区房、
上重点中学,怎么考好的大学或者出国留学。大家的同学在国内确实是吃喝玩乐加上抱
怨,所谓痛并快乐着。
我也看好中国长远的发展,从身为中国人的角度来讲肯定是这个倾向。但是从股票交易
投资来讲,A股上6-7月份大跌前或者刚开始的时候能跑不跑的肯定是傻;现在重回3400
点了,不减仓或者不出来观望观望的还是有点傻;除了一线城市以外还乱买投资房或者
放高利贷的还是傻。长线观点和中短线行为出现矛盾是一个正常现象。
所以,看好还是不看好中国经济,得多拿点东西或者数据来分析才靠谱。这种长线看好
,本身很难用来指导现在的具体投资,哪怕是买房,也不是因为看好中国经济发展就冲
进去买的。
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 他说得是胡润财富报告公布的结果,也和我看到的相符。
C*5
35 楼
Citadel不是被揪出来做空中国的那个公司吗?难怪Bernanke这么苦大仇深。LOL。
can
China
positions.
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: Working for smart guys like Jeff Bezos and Ken Griffin is my honor. You can
: only learn from smart people. You do not see many such smart people in China
: . You only see stupid government officials seeking rent from their positions.
can
China
positions.
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: Working for smart guys like Jeff Bezos and Ken Griffin is my honor. You can
: only learn from smart people. You do not see many such smart people in China
: . You only see stupid government officials seeking rent from their positions.
T*R
37 楼
想那么多干什么,美国这边能关的工厂差不多都关了,还不是歌舞升平股市连涨7年?
只要土共开动印钞机,来个7万亿10万亿,a股保证重上6千点。
只要土共开动印钞机,来个7万亿10万亿,a股保证重上6千点。
B*e
38 楼
1. Do you know that manufacturing are now slowly moving back to U.S. exactly
because of China's cheap labor is gone?
2. Printing money will not boost the market unless you have the reserve
currency. Just look at Japan.
【在 T*R 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 想那么多干什么,美国这边能关的工厂差不多都关了,还不是歌舞升平股市连涨7年?
: 只要土共开动印钞机,来个7万亿10万亿,a股保证重上6千点。
because of China's cheap labor is gone?
2. Printing money will not boost the market unless you have the reserve
currency. Just look at Japan.
【在 T*R 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 想那么多干什么,美国这边能关的工厂差不多都关了,还不是歌舞升平股市连涨7年?
: 只要土共开动印钞机,来个7万亿10万亿,a股保证重上6千点。
s*i
39 楼
说中国好也好坏也好,要有证据,喊口号或四大牛人是没有说服力的。以下所有的观点
都可以展开讨论。
中国经济很明显到了拐点,无论从四大牛人还是官方媒体都可以看出来,下行压力,新
常态,产业升级,金融风险,人口老龄化等等,这些词频繁出现在中央工作的头条新闻。
“past performance does not guarantee future results”,翻译成中文就是“三十
年河东,三十年河西”。
拐点意味着什么?至少意味着在可见的将来,增长减速,可能意味着增长停滞,甚至下
滑,或崩溃。十三五的计划就是6.56%,而十二五是保八。至于拐点对自己意味着什么
,大家其实都是在盲人摸象。比如,中国经济大发展的时候,下岗职工会骂,发展个屁
,我咋连工作都没有了。
我个人认为,中国发展到今天,经济减速是不可避免的,硬来只能摔得更狠,或者牺牲
掉某一部分人的利益,比如,举个极端的例子,为了缩小贫富差距的问题,明天开始打
土豪分田地,做为地主你就傻叉了。做为个人,要趋利弊害。处理得当,中国的体制基
本上可以避免崩溃。但同样的体制决定了,中国不可能继续高速发展,一个不尊重基本
法制、经济规律、和知识产权的体制,产业升级无从谈起,没有产业升级就没有生产力
(经济)的进一步发展。
最近的消息说,百度停止招人了,前一段阿里巴巴也是。华为传出裁员风。这些都是所
谓的产业升级的目标企业啊。
都可以展开讨论。
中国经济很明显到了拐点,无论从四大牛人还是官方媒体都可以看出来,下行压力,新
常态,产业升级,金融风险,人口老龄化等等,这些词频繁出现在中央工作的头条新闻。
“past performance does not guarantee future results”,翻译成中文就是“三十
年河东,三十年河西”。
拐点意味着什么?至少意味着在可见的将来,增长减速,可能意味着增长停滞,甚至下
滑,或崩溃。十三五的计划就是6.56%,而十二五是保八。至于拐点对自己意味着什么
,大家其实都是在盲人摸象。比如,中国经济大发展的时候,下岗职工会骂,发展个屁
,我咋连工作都没有了。
我个人认为,中国发展到今天,经济减速是不可避免的,硬来只能摔得更狠,或者牺牲
掉某一部分人的利益,比如,举个极端的例子,为了缩小贫富差距的问题,明天开始打
土豪分田地,做为地主你就傻叉了。做为个人,要趋利弊害。处理得当,中国的体制基
本上可以避免崩溃。但同样的体制决定了,中国不可能继续高速发展,一个不尊重基本
法制、经济规律、和知识产权的体制,产业升级无从谈起,没有产业升级就没有生产力
(经济)的进一步发展。
最近的消息说,百度停止招人了,前一段阿里巴巴也是。华为传出裁员风。这些都是所
谓的产业升级的目标企业啊。
y*n
40 楼
Manufacturing will never come back to US. At least not in foreseeable future
. Min wage in U.S. Is increasing like crazy. That is the main reason.
Don't be fooled by rich people in U.S. They say one thing and do something
else. Watch what they do, not what they say. What they say is to the
government and poor people and middle class to make them happy. They are
doing things not matching what they say.
I personally don't think America rich people care about US. U.S. Is a mess,
when the rich people cannot make money here, they will go somewhere else,
won't turn back. U.S. Is a immigrant country, land of opportunity. That is
it. When there is no opportunity, it is nothing.
exactly
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 1. Do you know that manufacturing are now slowly moving back to U.S. exactly
: because of China's cheap labor is gone?
: 2. Printing money will not boost the market unless you have the reserve
: currency. Just look at Japan.
. Min wage in U.S. Is increasing like crazy. That is the main reason.
Don't be fooled by rich people in U.S. They say one thing and do something
else. Watch what they do, not what they say. What they say is to the
government and poor people and middle class to make them happy. They are
doing things not matching what they say.
I personally don't think America rich people care about US. U.S. Is a mess,
when the rich people cannot make money here, they will go somewhere else,
won't turn back. U.S. Is a immigrant country, land of opportunity. That is
it. When there is no opportunity, it is nothing.
exactly
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 1. Do you know that manufacturing are now slowly moving back to U.S. exactly
: because of China's cheap labor is gone?
: 2. Printing money will not boost the market unless you have the reserve
: currency. Just look at Japan.
B*e
41 楼
You never read the news and you never see new factories being set up back in
the U.S., in particular in the red states. When cheap labor are gone, yuan
is expensive, some products that require sophisticated techniques and not
just cheap labor are coming back to the U.S.. You raised a good point: just
observe what the richest persons in China are doing: they are seeking
immigration. Now you can see who is pessimistic about the future. In terms
of patriotism, Americans are much better than Chinese. The situation you
described will happen in China when the economy slows down.
future
something
,
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: Manufacturing will never come back to US. At least not in foreseeable future
: . Min wage in U.S. Is increasing like crazy. That is the main reason.
: Don't be fooled by rich people in U.S. They say one thing and do something
: else. Watch what they do, not what they say. What they say is to the
: government and poor people and middle class to make them happy. They are
: doing things not matching what they say.
: I personally don't think America rich people care about US. U.S. Is a mess,
: when the rich people cannot make money here, they will go somewhere else,
: won't turn back. U.S. Is a immigrant country, land of opportunity. That is
: it. When there is no opportunity, it is nothing.
the U.S., in particular in the red states. When cheap labor are gone, yuan
is expensive, some products that require sophisticated techniques and not
just cheap labor are coming back to the U.S.. You raised a good point: just
observe what the richest persons in China are doing: they are seeking
immigration. Now you can see who is pessimistic about the future. In terms
of patriotism, Americans are much better than Chinese. The situation you
described will happen in China when the economy slows down.
future
something
,
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: Manufacturing will never come back to US. At least not in foreseeable future
: . Min wage in U.S. Is increasing like crazy. That is the main reason.
: Don't be fooled by rich people in U.S. They say one thing and do something
: else. Watch what they do, not what they say. What they say is to the
: government and poor people and middle class to make them happy. They are
: doing things not matching what they say.
: I personally don't think America rich people care about US. U.S. Is a mess,
: when the rich people cannot make money here, they will go somewhere else,
: won't turn back. U.S. Is a immigrant country, land of opportunity. That is
: it. When there is no opportunity, it is nothing.
s*i
42 楼
不要naive了,中国的cheap labor are gone, 不等于世界上的cheap labor都没有了
。只有世界上所有的cheap labor都没有了,才有可能会到美国。个别企业出于某中原
因回到美国不是不可能,但不可能是普遍现象。
in
yuan
just
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: You never read the news and you never see new factories being set up back in
: the U.S., in particular in the red states. When cheap labor are gone, yuan
: is expensive, some products that require sophisticated techniques and not
: just cheap labor are coming back to the U.S.. You raised a good point: just
: observe what the richest persons in China are doing: they are seeking
: immigration. Now you can see who is pessimistic about the future. In terms
: of patriotism, Americans are much better than Chinese. The situation you
: described will happen in China when the economy slows down.
:
: future
。只有世界上所有的cheap labor都没有了,才有可能会到美国。个别企业出于某中原
因回到美国不是不可能,但不可能是普遍现象。
in
yuan
just
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: You never read the news and you never see new factories being set up back in
: the U.S., in particular in the red states. When cheap labor are gone, yuan
: is expensive, some products that require sophisticated techniques and not
: just cheap labor are coming back to the U.S.. You raised a good point: just
: observe what the richest persons in China are doing: they are seeking
: immigration. Now you can see who is pessimistic about the future. In terms
: of patriotism, Americans are much better than Chinese. The situation you
: described will happen in China when the economy slows down.
:
: future
B*e
43 楼
I am not saying manufacturing will be back to the previous level. I am just
responding to THR's post that all manufacturing plants are gone. Of course
there will be other countries who can provide cheap labor, but they do not
have the ability to manufacture sophisticated parts. So all those low-tech,
low margin manufacturing will not come back but high-tech, high-margin will.
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 不要naive了,中国的cheap labor are gone, 不等于世界上的cheap labor都没有了
: 。只有世界上所有的cheap labor都没有了,才有可能会到美国。个别企业出于某中原
: 因回到美国不是不可能,但不可能是普遍现象。
:
: in
: yuan
: just
responding to THR's post that all manufacturing plants are gone. Of course
there will be other countries who can provide cheap labor, but they do not
have the ability to manufacture sophisticated parts. So all those low-tech,
low margin manufacturing will not come back but high-tech, high-margin will.
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 不要naive了,中国的cheap labor are gone, 不等于世界上的cheap labor都没有了
: 。只有世界上所有的cheap labor都没有了,才有可能会到美国。个别企业出于某中原
: 因回到美国不是不可能,但不可能是普遍现象。
:
: in
: yuan
: just
T*R
44 楼
咱不就是炒个股票吗,又不是巴菲做长线。
你看今天ASHR不就涨得不错吗?
土共印钱,只要把A股撑上6千点,我的ASHR翻倍我就知足了。至于过几年经济怎么样我
就不操心了。
美国QE的时候也没见这的人操心啊。
exactly
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 1. Do you know that manufacturing are now slowly moving back to U.S. exactly
: because of China's cheap labor is gone?
: 2. Printing money will not boost the market unless you have the reserve
: currency. Just look at Japan.
你看今天ASHR不就涨得不错吗?
土共印钱,只要把A股撑上6千点,我的ASHR翻倍我就知足了。至于过几年经济怎么样我
就不操心了。
美国QE的时候也没见这的人操心啊。
exactly
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 1. Do you know that manufacturing are now slowly moving back to U.S. exactly
: because of China's cheap labor is gone?
: 2. Printing money will not boost the market unless you have the reserve
: currency. Just look at Japan.
y*n
46 楼
They is no sophisticated manufacturing job. Everything is done by machine
now. Manufacturing jobs are never sophisticated. They are just operators and
doing very simple tasks that doesn't require college degree. They might
need few engineers to maintain the machines, but very few are needed.
just
,
will.
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: I am not saying manufacturing will be back to the previous level. I am just
: responding to THR's post that all manufacturing plants are gone. Of course
: there will be other countries who can provide cheap labor, but they do not
: have the ability to manufacture sophisticated parts. So all those low-tech,
: low margin manufacturing will not come back but high-tech, high-margin will.
now. Manufacturing jobs are never sophisticated. They are just operators and
doing very simple tasks that doesn't require college degree. They might
need few engineers to maintain the machines, but very few are needed.
just
,
will.
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: I am not saying manufacturing will be back to the previous level. I am just
: responding to THR's post that all manufacturing plants are gone. Of course
: there will be other countries who can provide cheap labor, but they do not
: have the ability to manufacture sophisticated parts. So all those low-tech,
: low margin manufacturing will not come back but high-tech, high-margin will.
B*e
47 楼
When machines become more sophisticated, you need more educated operator.
and
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: They is no sophisticated manufacturing job. Everything is done by machine
: now. Manufacturing jobs are never sophisticated. They are just operators and
: doing very simple tasks that doesn't require college degree. They might
: need few engineers to maintain the machines, but very few are needed.
:
: just
: ,
: will.
and
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: They is no sophisticated manufacturing job. Everything is done by machine
: now. Manufacturing jobs are never sophisticated. They are just operators and
: doing very simple tasks that doesn't require college degree. They might
: need few engineers to maintain the machines, but very few are needed.
:
: just
: ,
: will.
B*e
49 楼
A high school dropout who has no knowledge of how to operate a computer will
not get a manufacturing job nowadays. Many of the people I talked to
complained of not finding enough skilled workers and they are willing to pay
more so minimum wage is not an issue.
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 无论machine在怎么more sophisticated,用户界面都是越来越傻瓜。
not get a manufacturing job nowadays. Many of the people I talked to
complained of not finding enough skilled workers and they are willing to pay
more so minimum wage is not an issue.
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 无论machine在怎么more sophisticated,用户界面都是越来越傻瓜。
s*i
51 楼
没有啥previous level。产业升级了,就这么回事儿。美国人以后的前途就是少数人创
造可用来交换的价值,软件,制药,好莱坞啊啥的,用这些IP去换制造业的商品,其他
多数人都给这些人服务,打扫卫生,做饭,洗衣服,带娃,没那么多服务可做,就养着
你吃白饭,别搞事儿。所以TPP至关重要,必需保障美国的IP得到保证,否则大家都得
喝西北风。
just
,
will.
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: I am not saying manufacturing will be back to the previous level. I am just
: responding to THR's post that all manufacturing plants are gone. Of course
: there will be other countries who can provide cheap labor, but they do not
: have the ability to manufacture sophisticated parts. So all those low-tech,
: low margin manufacturing will not come back but high-tech, high-margin will.
造可用来交换的价值,软件,制药,好莱坞啊啥的,用这些IP去换制造业的商品,其他
多数人都给这些人服务,打扫卫生,做饭,洗衣服,带娃,没那么多服务可做,就养着
你吃白饭,别搞事儿。所以TPP至关重要,必需保障美国的IP得到保证,否则大家都得
喝西北风。
just
,
will.
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: I am not saying manufacturing will be back to the previous level. I am just
: responding to THR's post that all manufacturing plants are gone. Of course
: there will be other countries who can provide cheap labor, but they do not
: have the ability to manufacture sophisticated parts. So all those low-tech,
: low margin manufacturing will not come back but high-tech, high-margin will.
s*i
52 楼
民工都会用smart phone了,小孩几岁就会玩ipad/iphone了,不都是computer么?这个
你就不用抬杠了。skilled worker和education或智商没啥关系,大多数工作给时间谁
都会干。比如,摘苹果,你现在去应聘就不是skilled worker,老墨去了就是skilled
worker,农场主愿意20块/小时雇老墨,也不愿意10块/小时雇你去摘苹果。但你找个地
方苦练摘苹果,过一阵也能成为和老墨一样的skilled worker。
will
pay
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: A high school dropout who has no knowledge of how to operate a computer will
: not get a manufacturing job nowadays. Many of the people I talked to
: complained of not finding enough skilled workers and they are willing to pay
: more so minimum wage is not an issue.
你就不用抬杠了。skilled worker和education或智商没啥关系,大多数工作给时间谁
都会干。比如,摘苹果,你现在去应聘就不是skilled worker,老墨去了就是skilled
worker,农场主愿意20块/小时雇老墨,也不愿意10块/小时雇你去摘苹果。但你找个地
方苦练摘苹果,过一阵也能成为和老墨一样的skilled worker。
will
pay
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: A high school dropout who has no knowledge of how to operate a computer will
: not get a manufacturing job nowadays. Many of the people I talked to
: complained of not finding enough skilled workers and they are willing to pay
: more so minimum wage is not an issue.
B*e
53 楼
Previous level means in the 1950s. U.S. manufacturing will not be completely
gone like in THR's thread, which is my point. Outsourcing those low margin,
highly polluting manufacturing jobs is good for the U.S..
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 没有啥previous level。产业升级了,就这么回事儿。美国人以后的前途就是少数人创
: 造可用来交换的价值,软件,制药,好莱坞啊啥的,用这些IP去换制造业的商品,其他
: 多数人都给这些人服务,打扫卫生,做饭,洗衣服,带娃,没那么多服务可做,就养着
: 你吃白饭,别搞事儿。所以TPP至关重要,必需保障美国的IP得到保证,否则大家都得
: 喝西北风。
:
: just
: ,
: will.
gone like in THR's thread, which is my point. Outsourcing those low margin,
highly polluting manufacturing jobs is good for the U.S..
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 没有啥previous level。产业升级了,就这么回事儿。美国人以后的前途就是少数人创
: 造可用来交换的价值,软件,制药,好莱坞啊啥的,用这些IP去换制造业的商品,其他
: 多数人都给这些人服务,打扫卫生,做饭,洗衣服,带娃,没那么多服务可做,就养着
: 你吃白饭,别搞事儿。所以TPP至关重要,必需保障美国的IP得到保证,否则大家都得
: 喝西北风。
:
: just
: ,
: will.
s*i
54 楼
当然不会completely gone,但留下的一定是和国家安全利益相关的,而不会从成本角
度考虑。举个例子,iphone高科技产品,龙头企业,margin高不高?有没有高
pollution?为啥不在美国造?因为在其他国家造,可以提供更高的margin和更小的污
染。
completely
margin,
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: Previous level means in the 1950s. U.S. manufacturing will not be completely
: gone like in THR's thread, which is my point. Outsourcing those low margin,
: highly polluting manufacturing jobs is good for the U.S..
度考虑。举个例子,iphone高科技产品,龙头企业,margin高不高?有没有高
pollution?为啥不在美国造?因为在其他国家造,可以提供更高的margin和更小的污
染。
completely
margin,
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: Previous level means in the 1950s. U.S. manufacturing will not be completely
: gone like in THR's thread, which is my point. Outsourcing those low margin,
: highly polluting manufacturing jobs is good for the U.S..
y*n
55 楼
What year is this? Even kids know how to use computers. Computer UI is
simple to navigate. Do you see cashier work in McDonald's ?that is no
different than a computer with touch screen.
will
pay
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: A high school dropout who has no knowledge of how to operate a computer will
: not get a manufacturing job nowadays. Many of the people I talked to
: complained of not finding enough skilled workers and they are willing to pay
: more so minimum wage is not an issue.
simple to navigate. Do you see cashier work in McDonald's ?that is no
different than a computer with touch screen.
will
pay
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: A high school dropout who has no knowledge of how to operate a computer will
: not get a manufacturing job nowadays. Many of the people I talked to
: complained of not finding enough skilled workers and they are willing to pay
: more so minimum wage is not an issue.
B*e
56 楼
Manufacturing of iPhone parts does not have high margin and has a lot of
pollution. Many high-end manufacturing cannot be done in even China.
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 当然不会completely gone,但留下的一定是和国家安全利益相关的,而不会从成本角
: 度考虑。举个例子,iphone高科技产品,龙头企业,margin高不高?有没有高
: pollution?为啥不在美国造?因为在其他国家造,可以提供更高的margin和更小的污
: 染。
:
: completely
: margin,
pollution. Many high-end manufacturing cannot be done in even China.
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 当然不会completely gone,但留下的一定是和国家安全利益相关的,而不会从成本角
: 度考虑。举个例子,iphone高科技产品,龙头企业,margin高不高?有没有高
: pollution?为啥不在美国造?因为在其他国家造,可以提供更高的margin和更小的污
: 染。
:
: completely
: margin,
B*e
58 楼
If you equate McDonalld casher's computer operating skill to a manufacturing
worker's, then you do not know about manufacturing. Manufacturing jobs
always pay way above minimum wages than a cashier in McDonald, which means
there is more than simply pressing buttons on a touch screen.
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: What year is this? Even kids know how to use computers. Computer UI is
: simple to navigate. Do you see cashier work in McDonald's ?that is no
: different than a computer with touch screen.
:
: will
: pay
worker's, then you do not know about manufacturing. Manufacturing jobs
always pay way above minimum wages than a cashier in McDonald, which means
there is more than simply pressing buttons on a touch screen.
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: What year is this? Even kids know how to use computers. Computer UI is
: simple to navigate. Do you see cashier work in McDonald's ?that is no
: different than a computer with touch screen.
:
: will
: pay
B*e
59 楼
The core parts have intellectual property attached to it. Manufacturing core
parts itself has no issues. However, China is used to stealing intellectual
property from manufacturing it, which is the key reason for not
manufacturing core parts in China.
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 有多少核心部件是中国造的?不在中国造是因为中国不能造还是不让中国造?三星英特
: 尔台积电这些在中国就不能建厂?因为中国没有工人?
parts itself has no issues. However, China is used to stealing intellectual
property from manufacturing it, which is the key reason for not
manufacturing core parts in China.
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 有多少核心部件是中国造的?不在中国造是因为中国不能造还是不让中国造?三星英特
: 尔台积电这些在中国就不能建厂?因为中国没有工人?
C*5
61 楼
只不过说了说自己朋友圈里的观察,引来一群人,那个苦大仇深,一把鼻涕一把眼泪的
控诉。53岁上下的中国人心态不好,见不得有人对中国有信心。
控诉。53岁上下的中国人心态不好,见不得有人对中国有信心。
d*r
63 楼
你又为何见不得别人相反的意见?
l*t
68 楼
古板难道不是讨论投资?投资不能想当然吧?大家都是拿事实说话吧。现在的情况是有
些像falling knife. 从投资角度这也没错啊?和64有什么关系?你倒是挺像文革过来
的,先扣个政治不正确的帽子,大家还有什么好说的?其实这个问题还是资金说话,看
看那些聪明钱在干嘛呗?有人算了说中国加比利时,9月份又抛了几百亿国债,外流接
近1200亿。谁不想自己祖国好,在外边能挺起腰?但是大家讨论别扣帽子好不?
【在 C*****5 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 此话并不正确。老将还是以经历过64的人居多。所谓没有无缘无故的恨。
: 8090后经历过的TG比较正面,基本上改革开放经济发展最受益的一群人。所以以小将为
: 主。
: 老将老是希望中国崩溃就是想让小将也受他们受过的罪,然后改变立场站到他们一边。
: 所以老将说他们也是为了中国好小将觉得是扯淡。
: 老将小将这个矛盾是结构性的。无解。不过老将平均年龄53。马上进入退休高峰。等他
: 们退了这个世界就清静了。
l*t
69 楼
确实想讨论下,找不到刚才那个帖子了,说起房地产,找不到三四线城市的分开数据,
我只能挑一些典型的三四线城市,自己去查,这是一个比较典型的中部三线城市,大家
看看,大家要是有啥也请分享下。
【在 l*********t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
:
: 古板难道不是讨论投资?投资不能想当然吧?大家都是拿事实说话吧。现在的情况是有
: 些像falling knife. 从投资角度这也没错啊?和64有什么关系?你倒是挺像文革过来
: 的,先扣个政治不正确的帽子,大家还有什么好说的?其实这个问题还是资金说话,看
: 看那些聪明钱在干嘛呗?有人算了说中国加比利时,9月份又抛了几百亿国债,外流接
: 近1200亿。谁不想自己祖国好,在外边能挺起腰?但是大家讨论别扣帽子好不?
我只能挑一些典型的三四线城市,自己去查,这是一个比较典型的中部三线城市,大家
看看,大家要是有啥也请分享下。
【在 l*********t 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
:
: 古板难道不是讨论投资?投资不能想当然吧?大家都是拿事实说话吧。现在的情况是有
: 些像falling knife. 从投资角度这也没错啊?和64有什么关系?你倒是挺像文革过来
: 的,先扣个政治不正确的帽子,大家还有什么好说的?其实这个问题还是资金说话,看
: 看那些聪明钱在干嘛呗?有人算了说中国加比利时,9月份又抛了几百亿国债,外流接
: 近1200亿。谁不想自己祖国好,在外边能挺起腰?但是大家讨论别扣帽子好不?
l*t
70 楼
所以有人说,如果不能在世界范围内分散投资,只在国内的话,最好还是一线及部分二
线城市的核心区块的商品住房,比如说好学区,离轨道交通近,等...将来也许能跑赢
通胀,只从
现在的数据,滞胀可能性是最大的。即便对写字楼,也不是很建议。不知楼主家在哪一
类城市,能否具体情况具体分析下?
线城市的核心区块的商品住房,比如说好学区,离轨道交通近,等...将来也许能跑赢
通胀,只从
现在的数据,滞胀可能性是最大的。即便对写字楼,也不是很建议。不知楼主家在哪一
类城市,能否具体情况具体分析下?
s*i
73 楼
经济下行压力大,新常态,是党中央说的,你要反党么?
d*1
75 楼
我看好啊,可是我手力没有中国股诶
l*t
76 楼
这无所谓,关键还要考虑其他因素,比如说人口流入流出,年龄结构, 房屋保有量等。
有数据说整个市场上大概是6亿平米在售,60亿左右在建,刚需大概是每年五百万到七
百万套住房,全部消化需要10年,(仅靠记忆的,大概这么多,数量级肯定不会错),考
虑到人口构成,二手房的释放,所以我觉得得分类对待,但对三四线城市来说,迄今的
数据还是说明这是falling knife. 还有一个,房屋流动性比较差,其实不适合现在投
资,尤其是把钱投回去,怕被关门打狗,也许SDR决议之前问题不大?但确实值得考虑。
【在 C*****5 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 我可以说房子便宜了,大家有闲钱消费了吗?
: 我还能说跌不动了,反弹一触即发?
: 无论怎么看就是看不出崩溃的意思咋办?
有数据说整个市场上大概是6亿平米在售,60亿左右在建,刚需大概是每年五百万到七
百万套住房,全部消化需要10年,(仅靠记忆的,大概这么多,数量级肯定不会错),考
虑到人口构成,二手房的释放,所以我觉得得分类对待,但对三四线城市来说,迄今的
数据还是说明这是falling knife. 还有一个,房屋流动性比较差,其实不适合现在投
资,尤其是把钱投回去,怕被关门打狗,也许SDR决议之前问题不大?但确实值得考虑。
【在 C*****5 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 我可以说房子便宜了,大家有闲钱消费了吗?
: 我还能说跌不动了,反弹一触即发?
: 无论怎么看就是看不出崩溃的意思咋办?
M*n
78 楼
刚才的帖子
@ 中国的经济转型大有希望
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Stock/36416479.html
【在 l*********t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 确实想讨论下,找不到刚才那个帖子了,说起房地产,找不到三四线城市的分开数据,
: 我只能挑一些典型的三四线城市,自己去查,这是一个比较典型的中部三线城市,大家
: 看看,大家要是有啥也请分享下。
@ 中国的经济转型大有希望
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Stock/36416479.html
【在 l*********t 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 确实想讨论下,找不到刚才那个帖子了,说起房地产,找不到三四线城市的分开数据,
: 我只能挑一些典型的三四线城市,自己去查,这是一个比较典型的中部三线城市,大家
: 看看,大家要是有啥也请分享下。
B*e
80 楼
我搞不好年龄比你还小,但是我看问题从来不会因为自己得了多少利就幼稚地说谁好。
你得了1块钱的利,但是你本可以得100块钱的,凭什么帮着得了100块钱利的人说话?
我就是早早看透了这一点才来到国外的。
【在 C*****5 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 此话并不正确。老将还是以经历过64的人居多。所谓没有无缘无故的恨。
: 8090后经历过的TG比较正面,基本上改革开放经济发展最受益的一群人。所以以小将为
: 主。
: 老将老是希望中国崩溃就是想让小将也受他们受过的罪,然后改变立场站到他们一边。
: 所以老将说他们也是为了中国好小将觉得是扯淡。
: 老将小将这个矛盾是结构性的。无解。不过老将平均年龄53。马上进入退休高峰。等他
: 们退了这个世界就清静了。
你得了1块钱的利,但是你本可以得100块钱的,凭什么帮着得了100块钱利的人说话?
我就是早早看透了这一点才来到国外的。
【在 C*****5 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 此话并不正确。老将还是以经历过64的人居多。所谓没有无缘无故的恨。
: 8090后经历过的TG比较正面,基本上改革开放经济发展最受益的一群人。所以以小将为
: 主。
: 老将老是希望中国崩溃就是想让小将也受他们受过的罪,然后改变立场站到他们一边。
: 所以老将说他们也是为了中国好小将觉得是扯淡。
: 老将小将这个矛盾是结构性的。无解。不过老将平均年龄53。马上进入退休高峰。等他
: 们退了这个世界就清静了。
l*t
81 楼
谢了,这是我发在刚才帖子的,在这个帖子再发一遍,其实,真的有能力的话,应该跟
着领导走,查下AB的套路,资产外移,负债人民币化才是真牛。
当然希望大家共赴国难,但是对有能力的人来说,为家庭考虑,还是应该有几手准备,
不为挣钱,只是未雨绸缪,狡兔还有三窟呢。这才是该从那个拖拉机压大街吸取到的教
训,永远别高估某团体底线. 至于其他的,能有多少人有切身之痛呢?总共千人?百分
比是很小,毕竟总数十几亿人呢。但也请不要对那些人冷嘲热讽,他们也算是为了民族
做过抗争。
【在 M***n 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 刚才的帖子
: @ 中国的经济转型大有希望
: http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Stock/36416479.html
g*t
82 楼
你显然没参与过去十几年国内的发展。
现在刚投入,所以wishful thinking还能再高潮30年。
现在人民币多的,都是逃顶思维。我没看到一个cash多的不琢磨
换美元移民的。
你是看着过去几十年发财的人多了,脑子发热。
但现在不是好时候。
过去定期利息5%,人民币稳定升值的时候你不懂参与
火热的国内经济。现在就别接飞刀了。
【在 C*****5 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 此话并不正确。老将还是以经历过64的人居多。所谓没有无缘无故的恨。
: 8090后经历过的TG比较正面,基本上改革开放经济发展最受益的一群人。所以以小将为
: 主。
: 老将老是希望中国崩溃就是想让小将也受他们受过的罪,然后改变立场站到他们一边。
: 所以老将说他们也是为了中国好小将觉得是扯淡。
: 老将小将这个矛盾是结构性的。无解。不过老将平均年龄53。马上进入退休高峰。等他
: 们退了这个世界就清静了。
现在刚投入,所以wishful thinking还能再高潮30年。
现在人民币多的,都是逃顶思维。我没看到一个cash多的不琢磨
换美元移民的。
你是看着过去几十年发财的人多了,脑子发热。
但现在不是好时候。
过去定期利息5%,人民币稳定升值的时候你不懂参与
火热的国内经济。现在就别接飞刀了。
【在 C*****5 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 此话并不正确。老将还是以经历过64的人居多。所谓没有无缘无故的恨。
: 8090后经历过的TG比较正面,基本上改革开放经济发展最受益的一群人。所以以小将为
: 主。
: 老将老是希望中国崩溃就是想让小将也受他们受过的罪,然后改变立场站到他们一边。
: 所以老将说他们也是为了中国好小将觉得是扯淡。
: 老将小将这个矛盾是结构性的。无解。不过老将平均年龄53。马上进入退休高峰。等他
: 们退了这个世界就清静了。
t*3
85 楼
顶层的富人们肯定想的是移民或者保护财产。但是大部分中层或者中上层中国人并没有
想那么多,或者说,没有能力想那么多。
大家都是读书工作出来的(考虑到ABC或者很小移民的上这里来的人不多),大家国内
的同学,大学本科/研究生毕业5年的还在起步,毕业10-20年的,大部分人脑袋里面还
是想的是给自己孩子(小学中学大学)规划实施一个不错的发展路线,例如买学区房、
上重点中学,怎么考好的大学或者出国留学。大家的同学在国内确实是吃喝玩乐加上抱
怨,所谓痛并快乐着。
我也看好中国长远的发展,从身为中国人的角度来讲肯定是这个倾向。但是从股票交易
投资来讲,A股上6-7月份大跌前或者刚开始的时候能跑不跑的肯定是傻;现在重回3400
点了,不减仓或者不出来观望观望的还是有点傻;除了一线城市以外还乱买投资房或者
放高利贷的还是傻。长线观点和中短线行为出现矛盾是一个正常现象。
所以,看好还是不看好中国经济,得多拿点东西或者数据来分析才靠谱。这种长线看好
,本身很难用来指导现在的具体投资,哪怕是买房,也不是因为看好中国经济发展就冲
进去买的。
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 他说得是胡润财富报告公布的结果,也和我看到的相符。
想那么多,或者说,没有能力想那么多。
大家都是读书工作出来的(考虑到ABC或者很小移民的上这里来的人不多),大家国内
的同学,大学本科/研究生毕业5年的还在起步,毕业10-20年的,大部分人脑袋里面还
是想的是给自己孩子(小学中学大学)规划实施一个不错的发展路线,例如买学区房、
上重点中学,怎么考好的大学或者出国留学。大家的同学在国内确实是吃喝玩乐加上抱
怨,所谓痛并快乐着。
我也看好中国长远的发展,从身为中国人的角度来讲肯定是这个倾向。但是从股票交易
投资来讲,A股上6-7月份大跌前或者刚开始的时候能跑不跑的肯定是傻;现在重回3400
点了,不减仓或者不出来观望观望的还是有点傻;除了一线城市以外还乱买投资房或者
放高利贷的还是傻。长线观点和中短线行为出现矛盾是一个正常现象。
所以,看好还是不看好中国经济,得多拿点东西或者数据来分析才靠谱。这种长线看好
,本身很难用来指导现在的具体投资,哪怕是买房,也不是因为看好中国经济发展就冲
进去买的。
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 他说得是胡润财富报告公布的结果,也和我看到的相符。
C*5
94 楼
Citadel不是被揪出来做空中国的那个公司吗?难怪Bernanke这么苦大仇深。LOL。
can
China
positions.
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: Working for smart guys like Jeff Bezos and Ken Griffin is my honor. You can
: only learn from smart people. You do not see many such smart people in China
: . You only see stupid government officials seeking rent from their positions.
can
China
positions.
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: Working for smart guys like Jeff Bezos and Ken Griffin is my honor. You can
: only learn from smart people. You do not see many such smart people in China
: . You only see stupid government officials seeking rent from their positions.
T*R
96 楼
想那么多干什么,美国这边能关的工厂差不多都关了,还不是歌舞升平股市连涨7年?
只要土共开动印钞机,来个7万亿10万亿,a股保证重上6千点。
只要土共开动印钞机,来个7万亿10万亿,a股保证重上6千点。
B*e
97 楼
1. Do you know that manufacturing are now slowly moving back to U.S. exactly
because of China's cheap labor is gone?
2. Printing money will not boost the market unless you have the reserve
currency. Just look at Japan.
【在 T*R 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 想那么多干什么,美国这边能关的工厂差不多都关了,还不是歌舞升平股市连涨7年?
: 只要土共开动印钞机,来个7万亿10万亿,a股保证重上6千点。
because of China's cheap labor is gone?
2. Printing money will not boost the market unless you have the reserve
currency. Just look at Japan.
【在 T*R 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 想那么多干什么,美国这边能关的工厂差不多都关了,还不是歌舞升平股市连涨7年?
: 只要土共开动印钞机,来个7万亿10万亿,a股保证重上6千点。
s*i
98 楼
说中国好也好坏也好,要有证据,喊口号或四大牛人是没有说服力的。以下所有的观点
都可以展开讨论。
中国经济很明显到了拐点,无论从四大牛人还是官方媒体都可以看出来,下行压力,新
常态,产业升级,金融风险,人口老龄化等等,这些词频繁出现在中央工作的头条新闻。
“past performance does not guarantee future results”,翻译成中文就是“三十
年河东,三十年河西”。
拐点意味着什么?至少意味着在可见的将来,增长减速,可能意味着增长停滞,甚至下
滑,或崩溃。十三五的计划就是6.56%,而十二五是保八。至于拐点对自己意味着什么
,大家其实都是在盲人摸象。比如,中国经济大发展的时候,下岗职工会骂,发展个屁
,我咋连工作都没有了。
我个人认为,中国发展到今天,经济减速是不可避免的,硬来只能摔得更狠,或者牺牲
掉某一部分人的利益,比如,举个极端的例子,为了缩小贫富差距的问题,明天开始打
土豪分田地,做为地主你就傻叉了。做为个人,要趋利弊害。处理得当,中国的体制基
本上可以避免崩溃。但同样的体制决定了,中国不可能继续高速发展,一个不尊重基本
法制、经济规律、和知识产权的体制,产业升级无从谈起,没有产业升级就没有生产力
(经济)的进一步发展。
最近的消息说,百度停止招人了,前一段阿里巴巴也是。华为传出裁员风。这些都是所
谓的产业升级的目标企业啊。
都可以展开讨论。
中国经济很明显到了拐点,无论从四大牛人还是官方媒体都可以看出来,下行压力,新
常态,产业升级,金融风险,人口老龄化等等,这些词频繁出现在中央工作的头条新闻。
“past performance does not guarantee future results”,翻译成中文就是“三十
年河东,三十年河西”。
拐点意味着什么?至少意味着在可见的将来,增长减速,可能意味着增长停滞,甚至下
滑,或崩溃。十三五的计划就是6.56%,而十二五是保八。至于拐点对自己意味着什么
,大家其实都是在盲人摸象。比如,中国经济大发展的时候,下岗职工会骂,发展个屁
,我咋连工作都没有了。
我个人认为,中国发展到今天,经济减速是不可避免的,硬来只能摔得更狠,或者牺牲
掉某一部分人的利益,比如,举个极端的例子,为了缩小贫富差距的问题,明天开始打
土豪分田地,做为地主你就傻叉了。做为个人,要趋利弊害。处理得当,中国的体制基
本上可以避免崩溃。但同样的体制决定了,中国不可能继续高速发展,一个不尊重基本
法制、经济规律、和知识产权的体制,产业升级无从谈起,没有产业升级就没有生产力
(经济)的进一步发展。
最近的消息说,百度停止招人了,前一段阿里巴巴也是。华为传出裁员风。这些都是所
谓的产业升级的目标企业啊。
y*n
99 楼
Manufacturing will never come back to US. At least not in foreseeable future
. Min wage in U.S. Is increasing like crazy. That is the main reason.
Don't be fooled by rich people in U.S. They say one thing and do something
else. Watch what they do, not what they say. What they say is to the
government and poor people and middle class to make them happy. They are
doing things not matching what they say.
I personally don't think America rich people care about US. U.S. Is a mess,
when the rich people cannot make money here, they will go somewhere else,
won't turn back. U.S. Is a immigrant country, land of opportunity. That is
it. When there is no opportunity, it is nothing.
exactly
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 1. Do you know that manufacturing are now slowly moving back to U.S. exactly
: because of China's cheap labor is gone?
: 2. Printing money will not boost the market unless you have the reserve
: currency. Just look at Japan.
. Min wage in U.S. Is increasing like crazy. That is the main reason.
Don't be fooled by rich people in U.S. They say one thing and do something
else. Watch what they do, not what they say. What they say is to the
government and poor people and middle class to make them happy. They are
doing things not matching what they say.
I personally don't think America rich people care about US. U.S. Is a mess,
when the rich people cannot make money here, they will go somewhere else,
won't turn back. U.S. Is a immigrant country, land of opportunity. That is
it. When there is no opportunity, it is nothing.
exactly
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 1. Do you know that manufacturing are now slowly moving back to U.S. exactly
: because of China's cheap labor is gone?
: 2. Printing money will not boost the market unless you have the reserve
: currency. Just look at Japan.
B*e
100 楼
You never read the news and you never see new factories being set up back in
the U.S., in particular in the red states. When cheap labor are gone, yuan
is expensive, some products that require sophisticated techniques and not
just cheap labor are coming back to the U.S.. You raised a good point: just
observe what the richest persons in China are doing: they are seeking
immigration. Now you can see who is pessimistic about the future. In terms
of patriotism, Americans are much better than Chinese. The situation you
described will happen in China when the economy slows down.
future
something
,
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: Manufacturing will never come back to US. At least not in foreseeable future
: . Min wage in U.S. Is increasing like crazy. That is the main reason.
: Don't be fooled by rich people in U.S. They say one thing and do something
: else. Watch what they do, not what they say. What they say is to the
: government and poor people and middle class to make them happy. They are
: doing things not matching what they say.
: I personally don't think America rich people care about US. U.S. Is a mess,
: when the rich people cannot make money here, they will go somewhere else,
: won't turn back. U.S. Is a immigrant country, land of opportunity. That is
: it. When there is no opportunity, it is nothing.
the U.S., in particular in the red states. When cheap labor are gone, yuan
is expensive, some products that require sophisticated techniques and not
just cheap labor are coming back to the U.S.. You raised a good point: just
observe what the richest persons in China are doing: they are seeking
immigration. Now you can see who is pessimistic about the future. In terms
of patriotism, Americans are much better than Chinese. The situation you
described will happen in China when the economy slows down.
future
something
,
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: Manufacturing will never come back to US. At least not in foreseeable future
: . Min wage in U.S. Is increasing like crazy. That is the main reason.
: Don't be fooled by rich people in U.S. They say one thing and do something
: else. Watch what they do, not what they say. What they say is to the
: government and poor people and middle class to make them happy. They are
: doing things not matching what they say.
: I personally don't think America rich people care about US. U.S. Is a mess,
: when the rich people cannot make money here, they will go somewhere else,
: won't turn back. U.S. Is a immigrant country, land of opportunity. That is
: it. When there is no opportunity, it is nothing.
s*i
101 楼
不要naive了,中国的cheap labor are gone, 不等于世界上的cheap labor都没有了
。只有世界上所有的cheap labor都没有了,才有可能会到美国。个别企业出于某中原
因回到美国不是不可能,但不可能是普遍现象。
in
yuan
just
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: You never read the news and you never see new factories being set up back in
: the U.S., in particular in the red states. When cheap labor are gone, yuan
: is expensive, some products that require sophisticated techniques and not
: just cheap labor are coming back to the U.S.. You raised a good point: just
: observe what the richest persons in China are doing: they are seeking
: immigration. Now you can see who is pessimistic about the future. In terms
: of patriotism, Americans are much better than Chinese. The situation you
: described will happen in China when the economy slows down.
:
: future
。只有世界上所有的cheap labor都没有了,才有可能会到美国。个别企业出于某中原
因回到美国不是不可能,但不可能是普遍现象。
in
yuan
just
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: You never read the news and you never see new factories being set up back in
: the U.S., in particular in the red states. When cheap labor are gone, yuan
: is expensive, some products that require sophisticated techniques and not
: just cheap labor are coming back to the U.S.. You raised a good point: just
: observe what the richest persons in China are doing: they are seeking
: immigration. Now you can see who is pessimistic about the future. In terms
: of patriotism, Americans are much better than Chinese. The situation you
: described will happen in China when the economy slows down.
:
: future
B*e
102 楼
I am not saying manufacturing will be back to the previous level. I am just
responding to THR's post that all manufacturing plants are gone. Of course
there will be other countries who can provide cheap labor, but they do not
have the ability to manufacture sophisticated parts. So all those low-tech,
low margin manufacturing will not come back but high-tech, high-margin will.
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 不要naive了,中国的cheap labor are gone, 不等于世界上的cheap labor都没有了
: 。只有世界上所有的cheap labor都没有了,才有可能会到美国。个别企业出于某中原
: 因回到美国不是不可能,但不可能是普遍现象。
:
: in
: yuan
: just
responding to THR's post that all manufacturing plants are gone. Of course
there will be other countries who can provide cheap labor, but they do not
have the ability to manufacture sophisticated parts. So all those low-tech,
low margin manufacturing will not come back but high-tech, high-margin will.
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 不要naive了,中国的cheap labor are gone, 不等于世界上的cheap labor都没有了
: 。只有世界上所有的cheap labor都没有了,才有可能会到美国。个别企业出于某中原
: 因回到美国不是不可能,但不可能是普遍现象。
:
: in
: yuan
: just
T*R
103 楼
咱不就是炒个股票吗,又不是巴菲做长线。
你看今天ASHR不就涨得不错吗?
土共印钱,只要把A股撑上6千点,我的ASHR翻倍我就知足了。至于过几年经济怎么样我
就不操心了。
美国QE的时候也没见这的人操心啊。
exactly
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 1. Do you know that manufacturing are now slowly moving back to U.S. exactly
: because of China's cheap labor is gone?
: 2. Printing money will not boost the market unless you have the reserve
: currency. Just look at Japan.
你看今天ASHR不就涨得不错吗?
土共印钱,只要把A股撑上6千点,我的ASHR翻倍我就知足了。至于过几年经济怎么样我
就不操心了。
美国QE的时候也没见这的人操心啊。
exactly
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 1. Do you know that manufacturing are now slowly moving back to U.S. exactly
: because of China's cheap labor is gone?
: 2. Printing money will not boost the market unless you have the reserve
: currency. Just look at Japan.
y*n
105 楼
They is no sophisticated manufacturing job. Everything is done by machine
now. Manufacturing jobs are never sophisticated. They are just operators and
doing very simple tasks that doesn't require college degree. They might
need few engineers to maintain the machines, but very few are needed.
just
,
will.
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: I am not saying manufacturing will be back to the previous level. I am just
: responding to THR's post that all manufacturing plants are gone. Of course
: there will be other countries who can provide cheap labor, but they do not
: have the ability to manufacture sophisticated parts. So all those low-tech,
: low margin manufacturing will not come back but high-tech, high-margin will.
now. Manufacturing jobs are never sophisticated. They are just operators and
doing very simple tasks that doesn't require college degree. They might
need few engineers to maintain the machines, but very few are needed.
just
,
will.
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: I am not saying manufacturing will be back to the previous level. I am just
: responding to THR's post that all manufacturing plants are gone. Of course
: there will be other countries who can provide cheap labor, but they do not
: have the ability to manufacture sophisticated parts. So all those low-tech,
: low margin manufacturing will not come back but high-tech, high-margin will.
B*e
106 楼
When machines become more sophisticated, you need more educated operator.
and
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: They is no sophisticated manufacturing job. Everything is done by machine
: now. Manufacturing jobs are never sophisticated. They are just operators and
: doing very simple tasks that doesn't require college degree. They might
: need few engineers to maintain the machines, but very few are needed.
:
: just
: ,
: will.
and
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: They is no sophisticated manufacturing job. Everything is done by machine
: now. Manufacturing jobs are never sophisticated. They are just operators and
: doing very simple tasks that doesn't require college degree. They might
: need few engineers to maintain the machines, but very few are needed.
:
: just
: ,
: will.
B*e
108 楼
A high school dropout who has no knowledge of how to operate a computer will
not get a manufacturing job nowadays. Many of the people I talked to
complained of not finding enough skilled workers and they are willing to pay
more so minimum wage is not an issue.
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 无论machine在怎么more sophisticated,用户界面都是越来越傻瓜。
not get a manufacturing job nowadays. Many of the people I talked to
complained of not finding enough skilled workers and they are willing to pay
more so minimum wage is not an issue.
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 无论machine在怎么more sophisticated,用户界面都是越来越傻瓜。
s*i
110 楼
没有啥previous level。产业升级了,就这么回事儿。美国人以后的前途就是少数人创
造可用来交换的价值,软件,制药,好莱坞啊啥的,用这些IP去换制造业的商品,其他
多数人都给这些人服务,打扫卫生,做饭,洗衣服,带娃,没那么多服务可做,就养着
你吃白饭,别搞事儿。所以TPP至关重要,必需保障美国的IP得到保证,否则大家都得
喝西北风。
just
,
will.
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: I am not saying manufacturing will be back to the previous level. I am just
: responding to THR's post that all manufacturing plants are gone. Of course
: there will be other countries who can provide cheap labor, but they do not
: have the ability to manufacture sophisticated parts. So all those low-tech,
: low margin manufacturing will not come back but high-tech, high-margin will.
造可用来交换的价值,软件,制药,好莱坞啊啥的,用这些IP去换制造业的商品,其他
多数人都给这些人服务,打扫卫生,做饭,洗衣服,带娃,没那么多服务可做,就养着
你吃白饭,别搞事儿。所以TPP至关重要,必需保障美国的IP得到保证,否则大家都得
喝西北风。
just
,
will.
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: I am not saying manufacturing will be back to the previous level. I am just
: responding to THR's post that all manufacturing plants are gone. Of course
: there will be other countries who can provide cheap labor, but they do not
: have the ability to manufacture sophisticated parts. So all those low-tech,
: low margin manufacturing will not come back but high-tech, high-margin will.
s*i
111 楼
民工都会用smart phone了,小孩几岁就会玩ipad/iphone了,不都是computer么?这个
你就不用抬杠了。skilled worker和education或智商没啥关系,大多数工作给时间谁
都会干。比如,摘苹果,你现在去应聘就不是skilled worker,老墨去了就是skilled
worker,农场主愿意20块/小时雇老墨,也不愿意10块/小时雇你去摘苹果。但你找个地
方苦练摘苹果,过一阵也能成为和老墨一样的skilled worker。
will
pay
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: A high school dropout who has no knowledge of how to operate a computer will
: not get a manufacturing job nowadays. Many of the people I talked to
: complained of not finding enough skilled workers and they are willing to pay
: more so minimum wage is not an issue.
你就不用抬杠了。skilled worker和education或智商没啥关系,大多数工作给时间谁
都会干。比如,摘苹果,你现在去应聘就不是skilled worker,老墨去了就是skilled
worker,农场主愿意20块/小时雇老墨,也不愿意10块/小时雇你去摘苹果。但你找个地
方苦练摘苹果,过一阵也能成为和老墨一样的skilled worker。
will
pay
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: A high school dropout who has no knowledge of how to operate a computer will
: not get a manufacturing job nowadays. Many of the people I talked to
: complained of not finding enough skilled workers and they are willing to pay
: more so minimum wage is not an issue.
B*e
112 楼
Previous level means in the 1950s. U.S. manufacturing will not be completely
gone like in THR's thread, which is my point. Outsourcing those low margin,
highly polluting manufacturing jobs is good for the U.S..
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 没有啥previous level。产业升级了,就这么回事儿。美国人以后的前途就是少数人创
: 造可用来交换的价值,软件,制药,好莱坞啊啥的,用这些IP去换制造业的商品,其他
: 多数人都给这些人服务,打扫卫生,做饭,洗衣服,带娃,没那么多服务可做,就养着
: 你吃白饭,别搞事儿。所以TPP至关重要,必需保障美国的IP得到保证,否则大家都得
: 喝西北风。
:
: just
: ,
: will.
gone like in THR's thread, which is my point. Outsourcing those low margin,
highly polluting manufacturing jobs is good for the U.S..
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 没有啥previous level。产业升级了,就这么回事儿。美国人以后的前途就是少数人创
: 造可用来交换的价值,软件,制药,好莱坞啊啥的,用这些IP去换制造业的商品,其他
: 多数人都给这些人服务,打扫卫生,做饭,洗衣服,带娃,没那么多服务可做,就养着
: 你吃白饭,别搞事儿。所以TPP至关重要,必需保障美国的IP得到保证,否则大家都得
: 喝西北风。
:
: just
: ,
: will.
s*i
113 楼
当然不会completely gone,但留下的一定是和国家安全利益相关的,而不会从成本角
度考虑。举个例子,iphone高科技产品,龙头企业,margin高不高?有没有高
pollution?为啥不在美国造?因为在其他国家造,可以提供更高的margin和更小的污
染。
completely
margin,
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: Previous level means in the 1950s. U.S. manufacturing will not be completely
: gone like in THR's thread, which is my point. Outsourcing those low margin,
: highly polluting manufacturing jobs is good for the U.S..
度考虑。举个例子,iphone高科技产品,龙头企业,margin高不高?有没有高
pollution?为啥不在美国造?因为在其他国家造,可以提供更高的margin和更小的污
染。
completely
margin,
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: Previous level means in the 1950s. U.S. manufacturing will not be completely
: gone like in THR's thread, which is my point. Outsourcing those low margin,
: highly polluting manufacturing jobs is good for the U.S..
y*n
114 楼
What year is this? Even kids know how to use computers. Computer UI is
simple to navigate. Do you see cashier work in McDonald's ?that is no
different than a computer with touch screen.
will
pay
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: A high school dropout who has no knowledge of how to operate a computer will
: not get a manufacturing job nowadays. Many of the people I talked to
: complained of not finding enough skilled workers and they are willing to pay
: more so minimum wage is not an issue.
simple to navigate. Do you see cashier work in McDonald's ?that is no
different than a computer with touch screen.
will
pay
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: A high school dropout who has no knowledge of how to operate a computer will
: not get a manufacturing job nowadays. Many of the people I talked to
: complained of not finding enough skilled workers and they are willing to pay
: more so minimum wage is not an issue.
B*e
115 楼
Manufacturing of iPhone parts does not have high margin and has a lot of
pollution. Many high-end manufacturing cannot be done in even China.
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 当然不会completely gone,但留下的一定是和国家安全利益相关的,而不会从成本角
: 度考虑。举个例子,iphone高科技产品,龙头企业,margin高不高?有没有高
: pollution?为啥不在美国造?因为在其他国家造,可以提供更高的margin和更小的污
: 染。
:
: completely
: margin,
pollution. Many high-end manufacturing cannot be done in even China.
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 当然不会completely gone,但留下的一定是和国家安全利益相关的,而不会从成本角
: 度考虑。举个例子,iphone高科技产品,龙头企业,margin高不高?有没有高
: pollution?为啥不在美国造?因为在其他国家造,可以提供更高的margin和更小的污
: 染。
:
: completely
: margin,
B*e
117 楼
If you equate McDonalld casher's computer operating skill to a manufacturing
worker's, then you do not know about manufacturing. Manufacturing jobs
always pay way above minimum wages than a cashier in McDonald, which means
there is more than simply pressing buttons on a touch screen.
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: What year is this? Even kids know how to use computers. Computer UI is
: simple to navigate. Do you see cashier work in McDonald's ?that is no
: different than a computer with touch screen.
:
: will
: pay
worker's, then you do not know about manufacturing. Manufacturing jobs
always pay way above minimum wages than a cashier in McDonald, which means
there is more than simply pressing buttons on a touch screen.
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: What year is this? Even kids know how to use computers. Computer UI is
: simple to navigate. Do you see cashier work in McDonald's ?that is no
: different than a computer with touch screen.
:
: will
: pay
B*e
118 楼
The core parts have intellectual property attached to it. Manufacturing core
parts itself has no issues. However, China is used to stealing intellectual
property from manufacturing it, which is the key reason for not
manufacturing core parts in China.
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 有多少核心部件是中国造的?不在中国造是因为中国不能造还是不让中国造?三星英特
: 尔台积电这些在中国就不能建厂?因为中国没有工人?
parts itself has no issues. However, China is used to stealing intellectual
property from manufacturing it, which is the key reason for not
manufacturing core parts in China.
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 有多少核心部件是中国造的?不在中国造是因为中国不能造还是不让中国造?三星英特
: 尔台积电这些在中国就不能建厂?因为中国没有工人?
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