M*n
2 楼
What is it about USL that drove the outperformance? Even though USL and USO
both track WTI light, sweet crude, USL is designed to track the daily
changes in the average prices of the near month futures contract as well as
the contracts for the 11 months that follow the near month contract. When a
futures curve spends a lot of time in contango (months further out on the
curve trade at a higher price), it is generally beneficial to own a product
that tracks the average of 12 months of contracts rather than only the front
month. The outperformance of USL over USO reflects the contango that has
been present in the WTI curve for much of the past six plus years.
On the other hand, if the crude oil futures curve is in backwardation, a
period during which contracts further out in time are trading at lower
prices than near month contracts (downward sloping curve), and prices are
rising, it is generally a favorable environment for owning the front month
contract. This is because the front month contract would consistently be
rolled over at lower prices, only to see the price rise back up to where it
was (and beyond). In that case, USO would be preferable to USL. In a
backwardation environment in which prices are falling, it'd be better to own
USL if the backwardation is flattening quickly (similar to what we've seen
in recent months), and it'd be better to own USO if the backwardation is
stable, steepening, or flattening slowly.
To help investors work through the various scenarios, I've created the
matrix that follows. It outlines the 12 scenarios and states whether USO or
USL is generally preferable to own during those periods of time. The matrix
is designed for investors with intermediate- to long-term time frames.
【在 b*********n 的大作中提到】
: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2558075-uso-versus-usl-the-best
both track WTI light, sweet crude, USL is designed to track the daily
changes in the average prices of the near month futures contract as well as
the contracts for the 11 months that follow the near month contract. When a
futures curve spends a lot of time in contango (months further out on the
curve trade at a higher price), it is generally beneficial to own a product
that tracks the average of 12 months of contracts rather than only the front
month. The outperformance of USL over USO reflects the contango that has
been present in the WTI curve for much of the past six plus years.
On the other hand, if the crude oil futures curve is in backwardation, a
period during which contracts further out in time are trading at lower
prices than near month contracts (downward sloping curve), and prices are
rising, it is generally a favorable environment for owning the front month
contract. This is because the front month contract would consistently be
rolled over at lower prices, only to see the price rise back up to where it
was (and beyond). In that case, USO would be preferable to USL. In a
backwardation environment in which prices are falling, it'd be better to own
USL if the backwardation is flattening quickly (similar to what we've seen
in recent months), and it'd be better to own USO if the backwardation is
stable, steepening, or flattening slowly.
To help investors work through the various scenarios, I've created the
matrix that follows. It outlines the 12 scenarios and states whether USO or
USL is generally preferable to own during those periods of time. The matrix
is designed for investors with intermediate- to long-term time frames.
【在 b*********n 的大作中提到】
: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2558075-uso-versus-usl-the-best
s*7
3 楼
笑而不语
N*d
4 楼
一般散户肯定入USO, 入ugaz的散户也比dgaz多
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