History can always be your guide and VRX story is awefully like ELN story 15 years ago. When ELN dropped from $67 to $1, most of the people got burned along the way catching the falling knife. Just when the sentiment could not be worse and bankruptcy rumors were circling around, three things changed the event. When CEO changed, the stock did not bounce, as a matter of fact it kept dropping even though people acknowledged that it was a positive event.They needed a portfolio manager, not a seasoned pharmaceutical executive for drug development. The asset sales really lifted it from the bottom of $1 and people started to realize that the asset was not that difficult to sale and the company was not going to bankrupt. The most decisive event was the positive phase II news of Tysabri and people realized that it will make the company great again. That news kept the company lifted up to $33, History never repeats but rhymes. We have seen the CEO change, and MP being a liability to the company is gone now. We have not seen the asset sale yet, but we have a drug approval and a 18 to 0 endorsement for a major drug. Plus one more drug approval is on the way this week. Just this three drugs will create an enterprise value of $2-3 billions to say the least. For Brodalumab, I don't care what the peak sales is going to be. It can be $ 1B if you are really optimistic, or $200M if you believe the risk mitigation plan and black box warning will keep it low. All I know is that it will be a major turning point for the perception of the company because VRX only paid $100M for the world wide rights (ex-japan) and just recently sold EU rights for undisclosed amount (with guestimate of $40-$50M). That tells me not all the assets they bought are crap and a lot of value creation was done before. Again, the company is not going to bankrupt. But to make it fly, it will take several successful asset sales. But the tide is definitely turning, and when it is fully turned, the shorts will be caught pants down and VRX will ride much higher.
a*1
12 楼
今天收割了一半。
h*9
13 楼
Asset Sale和债务问题总算看到了曙光,今天涨得有点疯狂啊,挤短很严重,可以逢高 烧一下,做个day trade, 26.98烧了500股,day end cover.
Valeant had a $1.35 billion revolving line of credit, a $1.424 billion A-3 tranche A term loan, an $835.6 million A-4 tranche A term loan, a $1.053 billion D-2 tranche B term loan, an $808.9 million C-2 tranche B term loan, a $2.45 billion E-1 tranche B term loan and a $3.88 billion F tranche B term loan as of June 30, according to an earnings release. The company also had $19.26 billion of senior notes.
a*1
25 楼
When VRX was at $200, nobody raised the question of 40B dollar debt. People asked that question at the time are very rich today and that is why it is a 20 dollar stock now. At 20 some dollars today, everybody s still worrying about the debt and nobody wonder why they can not sell off 1700 drugs for 10 billion dollars to pay down debt and move forward with 100 high growth and high profit margin drugs.
, term had
【在 c*******e 的大作中提到】 : Valeant had a $1.35 billion revolving line of credit, a $1.424 billion A-3 : tranche A term loan, an $835.6 million A-4 tranche A term loan, a $1.053 : billion D-2 tranche B term loan, an $808.9 million C-2 tranche B term loan, : a $2.45 billion E-1 tranche B term loan and a $3.88 billion F tranche B term : loan as of June 30, according to an earnings release. The company also had : $19.26 billion of senior notes.
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】 : History can always be your guide and VRX story is awefully like ELN story 15 : years ago. : When ELN dropped from $67 to $1, most of the people got burned along the way : catching the falling knife. Just when the sentiment could not be worse and : bankruptcy rumors were circling around, three things changed the event. : When CEO changed, the stock did not bounce, as a matter of fact it kept : dropping even though people acknowledged that it was a positive event.They : needed a portfolio manager, not a seasoned pharmaceutical executive for drug : development. : The asset sales really lifted it from the bottom of $1 and people started to
y*r
30 楼
左右VRX,右手SPXU,是不是很爽呀? vrx is one of the few stocks can own at this stage.
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】 : 自己再顶一下。 : : 15 : way : and : drug : to
d*1
31 楼
歪脖看vrx能上看到多少?
【在 y***r 的大作中提到】 : 左右VRX,右手SPXU,是不是很爽呀? : vrx is one of the few stocks can own at this stage.