a*m
2 楼
给个具体时间吧,方便日后打脸
Y*n
7 楼
先看明年70
c*t
8 楼
先座前排等看打脸
a*1
9 楼
That is exactly what MM was trying to make you think.
The fact is when oil price moves up, the cost will go up too, and it is not
linear correlation. When everybody is drilling, the oil service cost will go
up dramatically and so are the cost of tax and royalty.
Right now at WTI at $50, the all-in cost for US shale companies are averaged
between $40-$65. When WTI at $80, the all-in cost will go up to $65 to $100.
The efficiency gain is only a small part of the equation. When service cost
is depressed, everybody at E&P business looks smart because oil service
companies are squeezed to death.
In XXR we trust!, oil to the moon!!!
【在 h**********h 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 想多了,页岩油现在成本很多在40以下了,原油上55,页岩油开采周期短,就会多快好
: 省的上,
: 原油的常态应该是45-60了。
The fact is when oil price moves up, the cost will go up too, and it is not
linear correlation. When everybody is drilling, the oil service cost will go
up dramatically and so are the cost of tax and royalty.
Right now at WTI at $50, the all-in cost for US shale companies are averaged
between $40-$65. When WTI at $80, the all-in cost will go up to $65 to $100.
The efficiency gain is only a small part of the equation. When service cost
is depressed, everybody at E&P business looks smart because oil service
companies are squeezed to death.
In XXR we trust!, oil to the moon!!!
【在 h**********h 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 想多了,页岩油现在成本很多在40以下了,原油上55,页岩油开采周期短,就会多快好
: 省的上,
: 原油的常态应该是45-60了。
h*h
10 楼
not sure. Probably you are right. But it is not this year or first half part
of next year. I probably will happen late next year or 2018.
not
go
averaged
100.
cost
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: That is exactly what MM was trying to make you think.
: The fact is when oil price moves up, the cost will go up too, and it is not
: linear correlation. When everybody is drilling, the oil service cost will go
: up dramatically and so are the cost of tax and royalty.
: Right now at WTI at $50, the all-in cost for US shale companies are averaged
: between $40-$65. When WTI at $80, the all-in cost will go up to $65 to $100.
: The efficiency gain is only a small part of the equation. When service cost
: is depressed, everybody at E&P business looks smart because oil service
: companies are squeezed to death.
: In XXR we trust!, oil to the moon!!!
of next year. I probably will happen late next year or 2018.
not
go
averaged
100.
cost
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: That is exactly what MM was trying to make you think.
: The fact is when oil price moves up, the cost will go up too, and it is not
: linear correlation. When everybody is drilling, the oil service cost will go
: up dramatically and so are the cost of tax and royalty.
: Right now at WTI at $50, the all-in cost for US shale companies are averaged
: between $40-$65. When WTI at $80, the all-in cost will go up to $65 to $100.
: The efficiency gain is only a small part of the equation. When service cost
: is depressed, everybody at E&P business looks smart because oil service
: companies are squeezed to death.
: In XXR we trust!, oil to the moon!!!
r*e
12 楼
正解!
现在油服都是倒贴钱给干活的,仅仅是为了留住客户和骨干员工。
not
go
averaged
100.
cost
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: That is exactly what MM was trying to make you think.
: The fact is when oil price moves up, the cost will go up too, and it is not
: linear correlation. When everybody is drilling, the oil service cost will go
: up dramatically and so are the cost of tax and royalty.
: Right now at WTI at $50, the all-in cost for US shale companies are averaged
: between $40-$65. When WTI at $80, the all-in cost will go up to $65 to $100.
: The efficiency gain is only a small part of the equation. When service cost
: is depressed, everybody at E&P business looks smart because oil service
: companies are squeezed to death.
: In XXR we trust!, oil to the moon!!!
现在油服都是倒贴钱给干活的,仅仅是为了留住客户和骨干员工。
not
go
averaged
100.
cost
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: That is exactly what MM was trying to make you think.
: The fact is when oil price moves up, the cost will go up too, and it is not
: linear correlation. When everybody is drilling, the oil service cost will go
: up dramatically and so are the cost of tax and royalty.
: Right now at WTI at $50, the all-in cost for US shale companies are averaged
: between $40-$65. When WTI at $80, the all-in cost will go up to $65 to $100.
: The efficiency gain is only a small part of the equation. When service cost
: is depressed, everybody at E&P business looks smart because oil service
: companies are squeezed to death.
: In XXR we trust!, oil to the moon!!!
w*k
13 楼
阿伯尔大牛最后一句说的太不专业了
专业说法是 to da mooooon!
not
go
averaged
100.
cost
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: That is exactly what MM was trying to make you think.
: The fact is when oil price moves up, the cost will go up too, and it is not
: linear correlation. When everybody is drilling, the oil service cost will go
: up dramatically and so are the cost of tax and royalty.
: Right now at WTI at $50, the all-in cost for US shale companies are averaged
: between $40-$65. When WTI at $80, the all-in cost will go up to $65 to $100.
: The efficiency gain is only a small part of the equation. When service cost
: is depressed, everybody at E&P business looks smart because oil service
: companies are squeezed to death.
: In XXR we trust!, oil to the moon!!!
专业说法是 to da mooooon!
not
go
averaged
100.
cost
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: That is exactly what MM was trying to make you think.
: The fact is when oil price moves up, the cost will go up too, and it is not
: linear correlation. When everybody is drilling, the oil service cost will go
: up dramatically and so are the cost of tax and royalty.
: Right now at WTI at $50, the all-in cost for US shale companies are averaged
: between $40-$65. When WTI at $80, the all-in cost will go up to $65 to $100.
: The efficiency gain is only a small part of the equation. When service cost
: is depressed, everybody at E&P business looks smart because oil service
: companies are squeezed to death.
: In XXR we trust!, oil to the moon!!!
a*1
15 楼
You are partially right. A large part of crude is coming from the ocean. The
long term all-in cost for deep ocean actually is cheaper due to low decay.
However, the initial investment is high the cycle usually takes 5-7 years.
It will take WTI at $60 before people make investment.
With dramatic reduction in Capex, literally all the deep ocean project was
canceled in the past two years. The investment before 2014 was still coming
online and that is why we still see the glut as of today. But in 2018, the
effect will be seen and it will be too late for the investment.
That is when we will see the price of oil to DA Moon!
【在 w*******1 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 我搜集到的资料没有显示页岩油能到40以下。还有,页岩油公司的资产负债表让我觉得
: 这些公司真的在玩庞氏骗局。据我了解,世界上有相当一部分石油产量是海洋石油。而
: 海洋石油的成本不低,如果价格维持在45美金,那么这批海洋石油会先垮掉。供给减少
: 然后导致油价还是会上涨。这次OPEC限产,我感觉价格能达到60美金左右。个人观点。
long term all-in cost for deep ocean actually is cheaper due to low decay.
However, the initial investment is high the cycle usually takes 5-7 years.
It will take WTI at $60 before people make investment.
With dramatic reduction in Capex, literally all the deep ocean project was
canceled in the past two years. The investment before 2014 was still coming
online and that is why we still see the glut as of today. But in 2018, the
effect will be seen and it will be too late for the investment.
That is when we will see the price of oil to DA Moon!
【在 w*******1 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 我搜集到的资料没有显示页岩油能到40以下。还有,页岩油公司的资产负债表让我觉得
: 这些公司真的在玩庞氏骗局。据我了解,世界上有相当一部分石油产量是海洋石油。而
: 海洋石油的成本不低,如果价格维持在45美金,那么这批海洋石油会先垮掉。供给减少
: 然后导致油价还是会上涨。这次OPEC限产,我感觉价格能达到60美金左右。个人观点。
m*r
16 楼
not
go
averaged
100.
cost
very well said. thanks.
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: That is exactly what MM was trying to make you think.
: The fact is when oil price moves up, the cost will go up too, and it is not
: linear correlation. When everybody is drilling, the oil service cost will go
: up dramatically and so are the cost of tax and royalty.
: Right now at WTI at $50, the all-in cost for US shale companies are averaged
: between $40-$65. When WTI at $80, the all-in cost will go up to $65 to $100.
: The efficiency gain is only a small part of the equation. When service cost
: is depressed, everybody at E&P business looks smart because oil service
: companies are squeezed to death.
: In XXR we trust!, oil to the moon!!!
m*r
17 楼
The
.
coming
yes! in able we trust, to DA Moon!
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: You are partially right. A large part of crude is coming from the ocean. The
: long term all-in cost for deep ocean actually is cheaper due to low decay.
: However, the initial investment is high the cycle usually takes 5-7 years.
: It will take WTI at $60 before people make investment.
: With dramatic reduction in Capex, literally all the deep ocean project was
: canceled in the past two years. The investment before 2014 was still coming
: online and that is why we still see the glut as of today. But in 2018, the
: effect will be seen and it will be too late for the investment.
: That is when we will see the price of oil to DA Moon!
a*9
18 楼
80没这么快到,不过油价的长期趋势应该是缓慢往上了。9月以来油价在40-50震荡,美
国欧元区天朝和日本都出现了通胀上升的迹象。应该是美帝开始变招了,保持强势美元
的同时缓慢抬升油价,引发其他国家的通胀,迫使其他央行停止大量印钱,然后就看谁
的泡沫先破了。天朝最近期市暴涨,如果传导到CPI上,到时候就被迫加息了...
国欧元区天朝和日本都出现了通胀上升的迹象。应该是美帝开始变招了,保持强势美元
的同时缓慢抬升油价,引发其他国家的通胀,迫使其他央行停止大量印钱,然后就看谁
的泡沫先破了。天朝最近期市暴涨,如果传导到CPI上,到时候就被迫加息了...
x*n
21 楼
很多资产并购已经完成,这个对石油公司其实更有利。
一部分小公司也被清理过了。
接下去就2步。如果继续维持这个价格,会有很多公司抗不过3年,这样一方面油井会少
,一方面会拖垮美国的经济。无论如何会有措施拉油。
如果就此开始涨。美国的石油行业会起来,old money会继续,trump支持的传统行业会
带来经济的好转,也会带动其他行业。
从opec成员国看也不见得是坏事,美国石油的复苏并不会带动他们的市场,因为美国是
石油禁止出口国,他们自己玩。而稍高的油价在政治上给美国面子,在经济上也不见得
有劣势。同时也协调了产油国的利益,对组织利大于弊。
however,石油短期overbought,我今天卖出NOV+RIG。
下一步会考虑加refiner,或者更综合一点的上游。
The
.
coming
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: You are partially right. A large part of crude is coming from the ocean. The
: long term all-in cost for deep ocean actually is cheaper due to low decay.
: However, the initial investment is high the cycle usually takes 5-7 years.
: It will take WTI at $60 before people make investment.
: With dramatic reduction in Capex, literally all the deep ocean project was
: canceled in the past two years. The investment before 2014 was still coming
: online and that is why we still see the glut as of today. But in 2018, the
: effect will be seen and it will be too late for the investment.
: That is when we will see the price of oil to DA Moon!
一部分小公司也被清理过了。
接下去就2步。如果继续维持这个价格,会有很多公司抗不过3年,这样一方面油井会少
,一方面会拖垮美国的经济。无论如何会有措施拉油。
如果就此开始涨。美国的石油行业会起来,old money会继续,trump支持的传统行业会
带来经济的好转,也会带动其他行业。
从opec成员国看也不见得是坏事,美国石油的复苏并不会带动他们的市场,因为美国是
石油禁止出口国,他们自己玩。而稍高的油价在政治上给美国面子,在经济上也不见得
有劣势。同时也协调了产油国的利益,对组织利大于弊。
however,石油短期overbought,我今天卖出NOV+RIG。
下一步会考虑加refiner,或者更综合一点的上游。
The
.
coming
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: You are partially right. A large part of crude is coming from the ocean. The
: long term all-in cost for deep ocean actually is cheaper due to low decay.
: However, the initial investment is high the cycle usually takes 5-7 years.
: It will take WTI at $60 before people make investment.
: With dramatic reduction in Capex, literally all the deep ocean project was
: canceled in the past two years. The investment before 2014 was still coming
: online and that is why we still see the glut as of today. But in 2018, the
: effect will be seen and it will be too late for the investment.
: That is when we will see the price of oil to DA Moon!
r*e
23 楼
xxr说这么肯定,对了又出名了,错了的话希望不要害了青蛙
个人觉得油价上100的日子很难盼到,当年上100是传闻石油要枯竭了。就现在这个新能
源和科技的发展趋势,以及这么多产油国,这个舆论很难造了
我觉得油价很快能到45走一趟
个人觉得油价上100的日子很难盼到,当年上100是传闻石油要枯竭了。就现在这个新能
源和科技的发展趋势,以及这么多产油国,这个舆论很难造了
我觉得油价很快能到45走一趟
x*n
32 楼
而且会很快。
现在先出来调整一下
现在先出来调整一下
a*m
33 楼
给个具体时间吧,方便日后打脸
Y*n
38 楼
先看明年70
c*t
39 楼
先座前排等看打脸
a*1
40 楼
That is exactly what MM was trying to make you think.
The fact is when oil price moves up, the cost will go up too, and it is not
linear correlation. When everybody is drilling, the oil service cost will go
up dramatically and so are the cost of tax and royalty.
Right now at WTI at $50, the all-in cost for US shale companies are averaged
between $40-$65. When WTI at $80, the all-in cost will go up to $65 to $100.
The efficiency gain is only a small part of the equation. When service cost
is depressed, everybody at E&P business looks smart because oil service
companies are squeezed to death.
In XXR we trust!, oil to the moon!!!
【在 h**********h 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 想多了,页岩油现在成本很多在40以下了,原油上55,页岩油开采周期短,就会多快好
: 省的上,
: 原油的常态应该是45-60了。
The fact is when oil price moves up, the cost will go up too, and it is not
linear correlation. When everybody is drilling, the oil service cost will go
up dramatically and so are the cost of tax and royalty.
Right now at WTI at $50, the all-in cost for US shale companies are averaged
between $40-$65. When WTI at $80, the all-in cost will go up to $65 to $100.
The efficiency gain is only a small part of the equation. When service cost
is depressed, everybody at E&P business looks smart because oil service
companies are squeezed to death.
In XXR we trust!, oil to the moon!!!
【在 h**********h 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 想多了,页岩油现在成本很多在40以下了,原油上55,页岩油开采周期短,就会多快好
: 省的上,
: 原油的常态应该是45-60了。
h*h
41 楼
not sure. Probably you are right. But it is not this year or first half part
of next year. I probably will happen late next year or 2018.
not
go
averaged
100.
cost
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: That is exactly what MM was trying to make you think.
: The fact is when oil price moves up, the cost will go up too, and it is not
: linear correlation. When everybody is drilling, the oil service cost will go
: up dramatically and so are the cost of tax and royalty.
: Right now at WTI at $50, the all-in cost for US shale companies are averaged
: between $40-$65. When WTI at $80, the all-in cost will go up to $65 to $100.
: The efficiency gain is only a small part of the equation. When service cost
: is depressed, everybody at E&P business looks smart because oil service
: companies are squeezed to death.
: In XXR we trust!, oil to the moon!!!
of next year. I probably will happen late next year or 2018.
not
go
averaged
100.
cost
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: That is exactly what MM was trying to make you think.
: The fact is when oil price moves up, the cost will go up too, and it is not
: linear correlation. When everybody is drilling, the oil service cost will go
: up dramatically and so are the cost of tax and royalty.
: Right now at WTI at $50, the all-in cost for US shale companies are averaged
: between $40-$65. When WTI at $80, the all-in cost will go up to $65 to $100.
: The efficiency gain is only a small part of the equation. When service cost
: is depressed, everybody at E&P business looks smart because oil service
: companies are squeezed to death.
: In XXR we trust!, oil to the moon!!!
r*e
43 楼
正解!
现在油服都是倒贴钱给干活的,仅仅是为了留住客户和骨干员工。
not
go
averaged
100.
cost
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: That is exactly what MM was trying to make you think.
: The fact is when oil price moves up, the cost will go up too, and it is not
: linear correlation. When everybody is drilling, the oil service cost will go
: up dramatically and so are the cost of tax and royalty.
: Right now at WTI at $50, the all-in cost for US shale companies are averaged
: between $40-$65. When WTI at $80, the all-in cost will go up to $65 to $100.
: The efficiency gain is only a small part of the equation. When service cost
: is depressed, everybody at E&P business looks smart because oil service
: companies are squeezed to death.
: In XXR we trust!, oil to the moon!!!
现在油服都是倒贴钱给干活的,仅仅是为了留住客户和骨干员工。
not
go
averaged
100.
cost
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: That is exactly what MM was trying to make you think.
: The fact is when oil price moves up, the cost will go up too, and it is not
: linear correlation. When everybody is drilling, the oil service cost will go
: up dramatically and so are the cost of tax and royalty.
: Right now at WTI at $50, the all-in cost for US shale companies are averaged
: between $40-$65. When WTI at $80, the all-in cost will go up to $65 to $100.
: The efficiency gain is only a small part of the equation. When service cost
: is depressed, everybody at E&P business looks smart because oil service
: companies are squeezed to death.
: In XXR we trust!, oil to the moon!!!
w*k
44 楼
阿伯尔大牛最后一句说的太不专业了
专业说法是 to da mooooon!
not
go
averaged
100.
cost
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: That is exactly what MM was trying to make you think.
: The fact is when oil price moves up, the cost will go up too, and it is not
: linear correlation. When everybody is drilling, the oil service cost will go
: up dramatically and so are the cost of tax and royalty.
: Right now at WTI at $50, the all-in cost for US shale companies are averaged
: between $40-$65. When WTI at $80, the all-in cost will go up to $65 to $100.
: The efficiency gain is only a small part of the equation. When service cost
: is depressed, everybody at E&P business looks smart because oil service
: companies are squeezed to death.
: In XXR we trust!, oil to the moon!!!
专业说法是 to da mooooon!
not
go
averaged
100.
cost
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: That is exactly what MM was trying to make you think.
: The fact is when oil price moves up, the cost will go up too, and it is not
: linear correlation. When everybody is drilling, the oil service cost will go
: up dramatically and so are the cost of tax and royalty.
: Right now at WTI at $50, the all-in cost for US shale companies are averaged
: between $40-$65. When WTI at $80, the all-in cost will go up to $65 to $100.
: The efficiency gain is only a small part of the equation. When service cost
: is depressed, everybody at E&P business looks smart because oil service
: companies are squeezed to death.
: In XXR we trust!, oil to the moon!!!
a*1
46 楼
You are partially right. A large part of crude is coming from the ocean. The
long term all-in cost for deep ocean actually is cheaper due to low decay.
However, the initial investment is high the cycle usually takes 5-7 years.
It will take WTI at $60 before people make investment.
With dramatic reduction in Capex, literally all the deep ocean project was
canceled in the past two years. The investment before 2014 was still coming
online and that is why we still see the glut as of today. But in 2018, the
effect will be seen and it will be too late for the investment.
That is when we will see the price of oil to DA Moon!
【在 w*******1 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 我搜集到的资料没有显示页岩油能到40以下。还有,页岩油公司的资产负债表让我觉得
: 这些公司真的在玩庞氏骗局。据我了解,世界上有相当一部分石油产量是海洋石油。而
: 海洋石油的成本不低,如果价格维持在45美金,那么这批海洋石油会先垮掉。供给减少
: 然后导致油价还是会上涨。这次OPEC限产,我感觉价格能达到60美金左右。个人观点。
long term all-in cost for deep ocean actually is cheaper due to low decay.
However, the initial investment is high the cycle usually takes 5-7 years.
It will take WTI at $60 before people make investment.
With dramatic reduction in Capex, literally all the deep ocean project was
canceled in the past two years. The investment before 2014 was still coming
online and that is why we still see the glut as of today. But in 2018, the
effect will be seen and it will be too late for the investment.
That is when we will see the price of oil to DA Moon!
【在 w*******1 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 我搜集到的资料没有显示页岩油能到40以下。还有,页岩油公司的资产负债表让我觉得
: 这些公司真的在玩庞氏骗局。据我了解,世界上有相当一部分石油产量是海洋石油。而
: 海洋石油的成本不低,如果价格维持在45美金,那么这批海洋石油会先垮掉。供给减少
: 然后导致油价还是会上涨。这次OPEC限产,我感觉价格能达到60美金左右。个人观点。
m*r
47 楼
not
go
averaged
100.
cost
very well said. thanks.
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: That is exactly what MM was trying to make you think.
: The fact is when oil price moves up, the cost will go up too, and it is not
: linear correlation. When everybody is drilling, the oil service cost will go
: up dramatically and so are the cost of tax and royalty.
: Right now at WTI at $50, the all-in cost for US shale companies are averaged
: between $40-$65. When WTI at $80, the all-in cost will go up to $65 to $100.
: The efficiency gain is only a small part of the equation. When service cost
: is depressed, everybody at E&P business looks smart because oil service
: companies are squeezed to death.
: In XXR we trust!, oil to the moon!!!
m*r
48 楼
The
.
coming
yes! in able we trust, to DA Moon!
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: You are partially right. A large part of crude is coming from the ocean. The
: long term all-in cost for deep ocean actually is cheaper due to low decay.
: However, the initial investment is high the cycle usually takes 5-7 years.
: It will take WTI at $60 before people make investment.
: With dramatic reduction in Capex, literally all the deep ocean project was
: canceled in the past two years. The investment before 2014 was still coming
: online and that is why we still see the glut as of today. But in 2018, the
: effect will be seen and it will be too late for the investment.
: That is when we will see the price of oil to DA Moon!
a*9
49 楼
80没这么快到,不过油价的长期趋势应该是缓慢往上了。9月以来油价在40-50震荡,美
国欧元区天朝和日本都出现了通胀上升的迹象。应该是美帝开始变招了,保持强势美元
的同时缓慢抬升油价,引发其他国家的通胀,迫使其他央行停止大量印钱,然后就看谁
的泡沫先破了。天朝最近期市暴涨,如果传导到CPI上,到时候就被迫加息了...
国欧元区天朝和日本都出现了通胀上升的迹象。应该是美帝开始变招了,保持强势美元
的同时缓慢抬升油价,引发其他国家的通胀,迫使其他央行停止大量印钱,然后就看谁
的泡沫先破了。天朝最近期市暴涨,如果传导到CPI上,到时候就被迫加息了...
x*n
52 楼
很多资产并购已经完成,这个对石油公司其实更有利。
一部分小公司也被清理过了。
接下去就2步。如果继续维持这个价格,会有很多公司抗不过3年,这样一方面油井会少
,一方面会拖垮美国的经济。无论如何会有措施拉油。
如果就此开始涨。美国的石油行业会起来,old money会继续,trump支持的传统行业会
带来经济的好转,也会带动其他行业。
从opec成员国看也不见得是坏事,美国石油的复苏并不会带动他们的市场,因为美国是
石油禁止出口国,他们自己玩。而稍高的油价在政治上给美国面子,在经济上也不见得
有劣势。同时也协调了产油国的利益,对组织利大于弊。
however,石油短期overbought,我今天卖出NOV+RIG。
下一步会考虑加refiner,或者更综合一点的上游。
The
.
coming
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: You are partially right. A large part of crude is coming from the ocean. The
: long term all-in cost for deep ocean actually is cheaper due to low decay.
: However, the initial investment is high the cycle usually takes 5-7 years.
: It will take WTI at $60 before people make investment.
: With dramatic reduction in Capex, literally all the deep ocean project was
: canceled in the past two years. The investment before 2014 was still coming
: online and that is why we still see the glut as of today. But in 2018, the
: effect will be seen and it will be too late for the investment.
: That is when we will see the price of oil to DA Moon!
一部分小公司也被清理过了。
接下去就2步。如果继续维持这个价格,会有很多公司抗不过3年,这样一方面油井会少
,一方面会拖垮美国的经济。无论如何会有措施拉油。
如果就此开始涨。美国的石油行业会起来,old money会继续,trump支持的传统行业会
带来经济的好转,也会带动其他行业。
从opec成员国看也不见得是坏事,美国石油的复苏并不会带动他们的市场,因为美国是
石油禁止出口国,他们自己玩。而稍高的油价在政治上给美国面子,在经济上也不见得
有劣势。同时也协调了产油国的利益,对组织利大于弊。
however,石油短期overbought,我今天卖出NOV+RIG。
下一步会考虑加refiner,或者更综合一点的上游。
The
.
coming
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: You are partially right. A large part of crude is coming from the ocean. The
: long term all-in cost for deep ocean actually is cheaper due to low decay.
: However, the initial investment is high the cycle usually takes 5-7 years.
: It will take WTI at $60 before people make investment.
: With dramatic reduction in Capex, literally all the deep ocean project was
: canceled in the past two years. The investment before 2014 was still coming
: online and that is why we still see the glut as of today. But in 2018, the
: effect will be seen and it will be too late for the investment.
: That is when we will see the price of oil to DA Moon!
r*e
54 楼
xxr说这么肯定,对了又出名了,错了的话希望不要害了青蛙
个人觉得油价上100的日子很难盼到,当年上100是传闻石油要枯竭了。就现在这个新能
源和科技的发展趋势,以及这么多产油国,这个舆论很难造了
我觉得油价很快能到45走一趟
个人觉得油价上100的日子很难盼到,当年上100是传闻石油要枯竭了。就现在这个新能
源和科技的发展趋势,以及这么多产油国,这个舆论很难造了
我觉得油价很快能到45走一趟
z*u
63 楼
XXR 这个预测被打脸了~~
今年下半年石油估计50 都很难突破
今年下半年石油估计50 都很难突破
E*y
68 楼
Dream on. Oil to $30.
N*Z
71 楼
Mark
P*5
72 楼
好久没有来股版了,XXR好像变化不大?
2015年那阵子我盯上过油服和金矿, 当时预测XES大概率最高会反弹回21块然后再继续
跌, XOP也有数字但现在忘了。当时记录下了预测和依据, 现在家里电脑肯定能翻出来
。不过虽然时机和预测正确,但持股不够淡定,最终赚的也不多。金矿也类似。A股同标
的倒是HOLD住了,阴差阳错忘记卖了,过了几个月才发现, 回吐了一部分利润。
行业ETF和大盘这种比较宏观的标的, 不要盯着新闻看, 看历史数据和当前大的图像就
够了。同样不要相信阴谋论,要尽量客观, 也要怀疑自己的结论。
顺便求提点, 现在有啥值得分析的行业或国家?
2015年那阵子我盯上过油服和金矿, 当时预测XES大概率最高会反弹回21块然后再继续
跌, XOP也有数字但现在忘了。当时记录下了预测和依据, 现在家里电脑肯定能翻出来
。不过虽然时机和预测正确,但持股不够淡定,最终赚的也不多。金矿也类似。A股同标
的倒是HOLD住了,阴差阳错忘记卖了,过了几个月才发现, 回吐了一部分利润。
行业ETF和大盘这种比较宏观的标的, 不要盯着新闻看, 看历史数据和当前大的图像就
够了。同样不要相信阴谋论,要尽量客观, 也要怀疑自己的结论。
顺便求提点, 现在有啥值得分析的行业或国家?
x*h
73 楼
印度,indz要不要来点
【在 P***5 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 好久没有来股版了,XXR好像变化不大?
: 2015年那阵子我盯上过油服和金矿, 当时预测XES大概率最高会反弹回21块然后再继续
: 跌, XOP也有数字但现在忘了。当时记录下了预测和依据, 现在家里电脑肯定能翻出来
: 。不过虽然时机和预测正确,但持股不够淡定,最终赚的也不多。金矿也类似。A股同标
: 的倒是HOLD住了,阴差阳错忘记卖了,过了几个月才发现, 回吐了一部分利润。
: 行业ETF和大盘这种比较宏观的标的, 不要盯着新闻看, 看历史数据和当前大的图像就
: 够了。同样不要相信阴谋论,要尽量客观, 也要怀疑自己的结论。
: 顺便求提点, 现在有啥值得分析的行业或国家?
N*Z
74 楼
印度
1. 中产阶级化?
2. 铁公基
1. 中产阶级化?
2. 铁公基
g*m
75 楼
版主v5
N*Z
76 楼
版主v5
z*u
77 楼
版主v5
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