Demand is going up at the rate of 1% a year. Supply/demand will be balanced in 2017 even without OPEC cut. Starting 2018, demand will be more than supply. If oversupply by 2% can cause 60% drop in price, supply shortage by 2% can do the same thing. Oil price at $200 in 2020 is a realistic dream. US shale gas produces only 8M barrels. Even at 15% yoy gain, it will increase by 1.2M barrels a year. (Honestly speaking it is not that easy to maintain 15% YOY). However, conventional oil decay in this world is about 5% without any capex. That is a whooping 5M barrels that need to be replaced! We will see the pain starting in 2019 because there were $1T capex cut in the past two years worldwide. It is not easy to restore production, especially the deep ocean oil. About 30% of oil in this world is from deep ocean and it usually takes 5 years for the deep ocean projects to come online. The only reason we are still seeing the production increase is because of the projects started way back in 2012-2014 when oil was at $100. Not anymore, NADA!