有一个分析是,明年的earning和revenue的增长率会降很多,因为今年的高增长是减税 刺激带来的。如果这个理论成立,明年的问题会很大。 https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/19/the-profits-slowdown-ahead-is-the-biggest- threat-to-the-stock-market.html Forget the Fed and trade war, the biggest threat to the stock market next year is a profit slowdown No matter what you believe is driving the stock market in the short term — the Federal Reserve, a trade war, Trump’s Twitter — the value of stock prices over time ultimately will come down to earnings. And that means the future is only getting bleaker from here. Wall Street analysts are already slashing their earnings estimates for 2019 to just single-digit growth, a big slowdown from the record 21 percent earnings growth expected when 2018 is all said and done, according to FactSet. Economist Ed Yardeni also curbed his enthusiasm for the earnings outlook, projecting profit growth of just 5 percent next year. “The problem...is that comps are going to be tough in the coming year following this year’s earnings,” Yardeni of Yardeni Research said in a note to clients Wednesday. “Earnings growth at best should be in the low single digits next year, not the high single digits as analysts still expect . Investors perceive that the risk is on the downside if the trade war persists next year, if global economic growth slows, and if profit margins get squeezed.”
【在 d***a 的大作中提到】 : 有一个分析是,明年的earning和revenue的增长率会降很多,因为今年的高增长是减税 : 刺激带来的。如果这个理论成立,明年的问题会很大。 : https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/19/the-profits-slowdown-ahead-is-the-biggest- : threat-to-the-stock-market.html : Forget the Fed and trade war, the biggest threat to the stock market next : year is a profit slowdown : No matter what you believe is driving the stock market in the short term — : the Federal Reserve, a trade war, Trump’s Twitter — the value of stock : prices over time ultimately will come down to earnings. : And that means the future is only getting bleaker from here.