说得很好,现在的形势和当年的64何其相似。在一群愤青学生领袖的带领下,没有周全 的计划,没有应对的方案,对形势判断过于简单,目标不切实际,最后葬送了学生的生 命,葬送了中国的民主进程,然后没有一个人出来承担责任。 我不讨论这件事情的出发点如何,但我同意大家说的我们就是要争取华人利益最大化。 但很遗憾,现在的形式看来,我们不但争取不到利益,反而可能会损失。 任何影响这么重大的决定,我们都需要做非常慎密的计划,有一个良好的出发点,定好 脚踏实地的目标,计算所有可能发生的结局,对所有变化都有一个应对方案,然后根据 形势不断的变化做同样慎密的调整。只有经过仔细的计算我们是有很大胜算,并且有了 一个这样的策略,我们才该行动。 Obviously we don't have one. 我们靠的就是喊口号,发生什么事情发生了再说。如果Jimmy不辞职我们怎么办?十个 有9 个说的是我们就一直斗下去。剩下一个理智的说我们就是要表明我们的态度。那怎么叫 表明了我们的态度?表明态度到什么时候?如果最后Jimmy不下台也不再道歉,我们怎 么办?别给我扯一句什么打官司一类的,打官司有没有详细的计划? 是否有人想到如 果最后不了了之,是否有可能不但没有明显改变外界对我们的印象,还会染上一些黑人 的负面形象?或者是否会影响我们以后类似活动的支持和前景? 当然肯定所有人 都会说我们胜利了,哪怕不了了之。就像64一样,在获得局部胜利的情况下没有见好就 收,导致满盘皆输。现在大家是如何看民运的?同样,民运也没有承认失败了。 It's just like an investment. You have a clear entry plan and a realistic goal, you calculate the odds of all possibility and invest because the overall odds are in your favor, and you have an exit plan and adjustment plan in place for all possibility. That's called a good investment strategy. You don't buy AAPL because you simply think it is going to $1000. That's not investment, that's gamble. You can gamble with your own money, but please don't do that when the interest of entire Chinese people is on the line. I think we are making 5 bucks right now, it's not a lot, but we should take it, because IMO odds are against us for making much more, but we could lose more by holding through. We should come back the next time we have a good opportunity to gain beyond the 5 bucks, but not this time. As you all said, Jimmy Kimmel is a business man. He does thing to his interest. The only reason he did not apologize to the degree we want to, is because according to his calculation, the chances we can hurt him financially, is remote. Otherwise he would do whatever you want. If you want to prove his calculation is wrong, don't just say it, have a plan. We need a fucking strategy, not anymore slogan.