炒股学习笔记（5）
非常感谢所有在这里真诚分享的网友。大家都知道我怎么开始的。更多的不多说了。继续我的学习笔记。我记忆力不好，把它们放在自己博客。慢慢学习方便。
QQQ的风险（10/17/2024；QQQ：491.25) by 三心三意
Actually, the title is a click bait. Big picture wise, QQQ is fine and it is real hard to find a structure risk at this point. I know some of us are worrying because QQQ looked weak today, but as explained earlier, stocks are under pressue today from Bond market. In the past, when bond yield rise 0.1%, it is a big thing and I have seen Nasdaq and SP500 going down 1-2% with this happened. So, the fact we actually closed in green showed market is buying at weakness. Also Nov VIX has been going lower and now under 20, which is another sign that investors do not see big volatility.
But we do need to be mindful about the potential risk. If I have to think of one big risk for QQQ, that would be the upcoming earning season where an unexpected surprise such as the one from ASML coming from any of the big 7 stocks. Investors are in the waiting mode: they do NOT want to miss the boat to ATH and that is why stock has been brought up every time it went lower, but they also do not want to commit for fear of an earning shortfall
What does this have anything to do with tomorrow?
For QQQ, regardless if we open high or low, I think it will range bound with a high not exceeding 495 and a low not below 488. If QQQ opens high tomorrow, it may not be a good idea to chase, and if it opens low tomorrow, please do not panic. For NVDA, as people pointed out earlier, there are some huge call options between 137 to 142 (351K call options open which could worth hundred of millions). It would be a miracle if MM allows those calls to be ITM by the close. At the same time, put contracts are concentrated at 130 and below so MM could try to keep NVDA above 130 as well. Basically, same strategy as QQQ, no need to panic if NVDA is sold off at open, but also try not to chase if it opens highThe real risk level we need to watch for is that QQQ MUST hold 485-486. There are many important TA indicators all concentrating in this area that I am not going to elaborate. If we break below 485, the uptrend structure is damaged and that is when we need to start to be very careful. Until then, I really dont think we need to be worried.
For NVDA, we need to hold 127 level in ideal case, and MUST hold 123 in worst case. As long as we hold these, the uptrend still intact
关于下一个阶段 by 三心三意
QQQ and SPY are going for new ATH. Elliot wave has been playing out very much like what we have estimated in 大千。 The thing I dont know is if QQQ will do a pull back after it reaches 505-510, or do pullback after reaching 540.
My plan now is to ride this uptrend and expect volatility (due to earning season coming). As long as QQQ does not go below 21D EMA (布林中轨），I will continue to hold for this uptrend.
IWM need to see a breakout of 228 to truly confirm.
We have been buying aggressively since 9/11, but dont know if now is a good time to add large positions. Risk/award is not as good as beginning of Sept, meaning, even if QQQ goes to 510, it is only 5-6% gain.
一种简单实用的选股方法 by 低手只会用均线
我在大千曾解释我为什么专注于交易nvda. 我是ibd的学生/信徒. 我曾当面请教ibd创始人O'Neil先生, ibd每周推荐一大堆股票(包括ibd 50和bid big 20), 你投资什么股票? 回答是翻倍股(本质是领涨股). 随后, 他给出了仔细解释. 虽然我订了Ibd, 但是我最常看的是免费网站finviz.com. 如下图所示, 我可以直接看巨型股ytd股价成长的排行骨. 按照O'Neil先生所说, 我会将我的投资专注于排行榜的前两名. 这样, 用相同的投入资金和时间及市场风险, 专注于领涨股, 就是赢在起跑线上. 从2023开始, nvda一直就位于排行榜的榜首, 所以自然就专注于它. 从下图也可以看到, 交易nvda与交易aapl/amzn/googl/meta/msft/tsla的ytd回报的巨大差别. 炒股也要傍大款! 具体交易细节另说.
得到这个排名, 我的交易就集中于头两名. 现在, 第一各比第二名领涨太多, 所以我就专注于第一名.
逃跑信号 by 低手只会用均线
华尔街头号交易大师的忠告
I get very nervous about the retail investor, the average investor, this is really really hard, if this was easy. If there was one formula, one way to do it, we'd all be zillionaires . One principle for sure would be get out of anything that falls below the 200-day moving everage.
股市里买贵的 by 越王剑
投行业龙头股和投指数差不多。因为指数里这些龙头股占的比例都很大。龙头股跌，指数也跌。大千的捣乱经常说”市场屈从于大佬”也是这个道理。买龙头几乎等于买股指还没有管理费。当然在某个时间断，个股风险肯定大于股指。
这些龙头股也是能赚钱的祖宗。龙头股都不赚钱了，其它公司就更别指望。但是从其它大众公司的季报也能看出龙头公司咋样。连大众公司的季报都不错，龙头们能差？
而且龙头股盘子大，不容易被操控。优势明显。股市里只买贵的，便宜没好货。只要不是贵的离谱。
最好的投股办法 by 圭妈
１，定投指数。这个在投坛已经是老生常谈，我就不多说了。
２，在大盘大跌的时候以大资金逐步买入指数基金。我以前写过一篇关于看什么指标可以大资金投入，这里也不多说了。举一个最近的例子，７月底８月初的时候因为日元套利交易引起的回调导致 QQQ 逼近 200日移动平均线，当时大资金买入的话，现在已经有 13% 左右的升值了。一年中总会出现一两次这样的机会，不必每天为了赚一点生活费紧盯着股市出出进进，一年抓住一两次机会就可以了。
３，长期追踪几个基本面很好的公司，在大跌的时候以大资金勇敢买入。这些公司往往是行业龙头，长期投资回报率超过指数基金，如果在下跌的时候买入的话，长期的回报率非常可观。例如，去年年初的时候不知什么原因，大科技股票被杀跌，当时苹果跌到 $120, 微软跌到 $220 附近，如果当时大批买入的话，现在已经接近翻倍了。再举一个最近的例子，７月底８月初的那次回调，英伟达跌到 $100 以下，当时如果加仓的话，现在也已经有 40% 左右的涨幅了。还有很多类似的例子，不多说了。
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炒股学习笔记（5）-QQQ, NVDA, 选股方法, 逃跑信号 再访Corning Glass Museum 既然南方塌了，为什么没有人考虑退休去中西部 度假屋和传承 夏花
