Just updated NVDA 估值模型

Based on their guidance, they should be able to hit $185B revenue in 2025., with a growth margin of 73.5% (taking middle of H1 72% and H2 75%). 

Nvidia is starting to control their expense. Their operating expense only grow 9% QoQ this quarter, and guided 10% for next quarter, this is lower than the 12% growth last quarter. This will help their EPS somewhat in 2025.

All together, the EPS is around $4.25 for 2025.

If we apply PE of 30, this translate to a stock price of 128. If we apply PE of 35, this translate to a stock price of 149. With a PE of 40, this would be 170

Dont think NVDA can support PE of 40 at this time as there are still uncertainty on Blackwell ramp up and the final margin. But any price closer to 128 should be a steal, and price over 150 could be a bit overvalued at this time.

 

中位数149 那么没什么油水了？

One key assumption here is that...

NVDA can accelerate their revenue growth after next quarter when Blackwell is in full swing. Keep in mind that NVDA "only" guided 6% QoQ revenue increase from this Q to next Q. If this 7% were the normal growth rate, NVDA stock would be in big trouble, as that implies they can only do $175B in 2025, and with that revenue target, stock valuation would be cut by 15% from the ones I listed above.

So, if you do not believe NVDA can ramp up Blackwell and do $185B revenue in 2025, better wait until dust settles.

For me, I am in full confidence that they can deliver at least $185B

这只是估值，具体的股价还会受情绪影响和大市影响。但我们现在如果看到股价到了155+，可以考虑减仓

反过来如果看到130，应该毫不犹豫加仓

what's causing the supply chain bottleneck?

looks like it's hard to overcome. tsmc cannot increase their capacity fast enough?

Typical when introducing a new/complex product in short time

Judging by afterhour price action, big investors are not worried about this at all.

Their supply could never meet the demand, even for h200. If

this can be fixed, there will be huge upside.

Appreciate a lot for updating the model in such a timely

manner. I just finished listening to the conference.

Once you have the model, you can update it in 5 mins :)

I shared my model before. As soon as I hear CFO giving 2025 gross margin update, the stock price target is updated, lol

TSMC's 2025 production capacity is expected to 2X+ from 2024

Will this translate to 2x Blackwell shipment for NVDA in 2025? Hopefully!

我今天还用他们发布的数据BackTest了我的模型。算出来的.82EPS 比官方数据只差.01:)

蓝色数据是英伟达今天公布的，剩下的是模型计算出来的

Fantastic! I am going to test mine, too. :)

Just tested mine. Got the same as yours!! EPS 0.82 ! Very

happy about my model. :)

Hey! I found out that interest & other on NVDA press release

is 411, not 600. so now I got 0.81, and I think if you update yours you will get 0.81 as well. :)

Just updated mine for FY2026 as well. Got EPS at $4.25 after

updating operating expenses, assuming 10% growth Q over Q sequentially. If assigning 35 P/E, price target $148.85. 

I am assuming revenue sequential growth is 8% for Q12026

and 10% for subsequent quarters, and growth margin of 73.5%.