关于今年有机化学的院士的一点想法 - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

关于今年有机化学的院士的一点想法# Chemistry - 化学

d*02009-12-13 08:12

1 楼

第一次听SACD，用DT880耳机听的，乐器更有质感，定位也好很多。
同一曲目，同一remaster的不同layer
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0009U55RE
和那个RCA一套里面的同一张。
不过，偶听音乐大部分时间精神集中在演绎上，音质上提高估计还不至于让偶不听CD，
换买SACD。

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

2 楼

It is ironic that bogleheads brought up such cliche that 80% (or whatever
percentage) MM lose to index and at the same time use market-cap weighted
index.
What about AUM weighted active MM performance? I am sure the index will
still has tiny little edges, but the margin will be significantly smaller.
How about throw out high-fees and closet index funds? Vangaurd's active
funds anyone?
An average Joe trained tennis for a few days can say his tennis skill is
better than 80% or maybe 90% world population, is he a good tennis player?

f*c2009-12-13 08:12

3 楼

妈妈已经退休，20项的工作单位一栏写退休还不填？

b*o2009-12-13 08:12

4 楼

买中国的金条如何？
囤点金条如何？国内的金条纯度如何？有人买过吗？
http://www.tootoo.com/idetail/rough-diamond-and-gold-bars_76753

g*a2009-12-13 08:12

5 楼

打算4/11号早上出发，从新英格兰。我在CT.

s*i2009-12-13 08:12

6 楼

S*p2009-12-13 08:12

7 楼

这语气就像tg啊。

b*o2009-12-13 08:12

8 楼

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以下是我match offer的回信
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f*y2009-12-13 08:12

9 楼

【以下文字转载自 CS 讨论区】
发信人: fishbyby (阿狸), 信区: CS
标题: 顶锅盖问一下UNC-Charlotte CS MS program怎么样
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Aug 27 21:23:06 2013, 美东)
我知道这里都是大牛，但是我是生化烂坑专业的想转CS，背景很弱，只修了一点CS的课
，不敢申牛校，不知道怎么定位。
求指教，求拍醒

p*u2009-12-13 08:12

10 楼

我觉得杨丹，侯雪龙，马大伟，周其林等不相上下
杨国际知名度高，工作也做得好
近几年开展化学生物学，这个领域国内投入度好像不够
侯---1997年获国家自然科学二等奖（第二作者），1999年获国家杰出青年基金，2001
年获上海市科学技术进步一等奖（第二作者）。2002年获日本学术振兴会(JSPS)奖学金
二茂铁配体方面做得多，很多文章有戴先生的名字，是不是有点打折？
马---求是科技基金会杰出青年学者奖（1998），中国青年科技奖（1998），上海市十
大杰出青年（2001），上海市科学进步一等奖（2005），国家自然科学二等奖（2007）
有方法学，全合成或半合成，也有和别人合作测活性研究构效
如果上，是不是能带动一下国内全合成领域
周---国家杰出青年基金（1997），长江学者特聘教授（1999），2005年获中国化学会
有机化学委员会“有机合成创造奖”。黄耀曾金属有机化学奖（2006），天津市“自然
科学一等奖”
分量好像不足，没有国家自然科学奖
主要工作是手性螺环配体，大部分应用于其它手性配体也能催化的反应，可能ee值更高
点？
感觉在手性配体方面还是张绪穆更有说服力，开展

a*s2009-12-13 08:12

11 楼

没试试多声道？这个才是和CD的大差别。

k*n2009-12-13 08:12

12 楼

an average Joe's expectation is to be above average, which index
funds certainly meet
the number of 80% is questionable anyway and I would not use it
in the arguement

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: It is ironic that bogleheads brought up such cliche that 80% (or whatever
: percentage) MM lose to index and at the same time use market-cap weighted
: index.
: What about AUM weighted active MM performance? I am sure the index will
: still has tiny little edges, but the margin will be significantly smaller.
: How about throw out high-fees and closet index funds? Vangaurd's active
: funds anyone?
: An average Joe trained tennis for a few days can say his tennis skill is
: better than 80% or maybe 90% world population, is he a good tennis player?

l*22009-12-13 08:12

13 楼

写退休
请祝福我父母一下，8月4号签，谢谢！

d*o2009-12-13 08:12

14 楼

我看过新闻报道中国金条造假，用另外一种非常相似的金属替代。
有人在银行买出来的金条都是假的。

【在 b*****o 的大作中提到】

: 买中国的金条如何？
: 囤点金条如何？国内的金条纯度如何？有人买过吗？
: http://www.tootoo.com/idetail/rough-diamond-and-gold-bars_76753

f*a2009-12-13 08:12

15 楼

亲爱的你也爆发啦，哈哈

【在 s*****i 的大作中提到】

m*s2009-12-13 08:12

16 楼

没戏，IT已死，好好做生物工程这份很有前途的职业吧。

【以下文字转载自 CS 讨论区】发信人: fishbyby (阿狸), 信区: CS标

【在 f******y 的大作中提到】

: 【以下文字转载自 CS 讨论区】
: 发信人: fishbyby (阿狸), 信区: CS
: 标题: 顶锅盖问一下UNC-Charlotte CS MS program怎么样
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Aug 27 21:23:06 2013, 美东)
: 我知道这里都是大牛，但是我是生化烂坑专业的想转CS，背景很弱，只修了一点CS的课
: ，不敢申牛校，不知道怎么定位。
: 求指教，求拍醒

l*s2009-12-13 08:12

17 楼

完全同意
我一直鼓吹上多声道Hifi系统听SACD

【在 a******s 的大作中提到】

: 没试试多声道？这个才是和CD的大差别。

t*n2009-12-13 08:12

18 楼

如果每个人都必须打tennis的话，能beat 80%的population不错了。
当然80%值得商榷，大于50%是肯定的。

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: It is ironic that bogleheads brought up such cliche that 80% (or whatever
: percentage) MM lose to index and at the same time use market-cap weighted
: index.
: What about AUM weighted active MM performance? I am sure the index will
: still has tiny little edges, but the margin will be significantly smaller.
: How about throw out high-fees and closet index funds? Vangaurd's active
: funds anyone?
: An average Joe trained tennis for a few days can say his tennis skill is
: better than 80% or maybe 90% world population, is he a good tennis player?

c*k2009-12-13 08:12

19 楼

啊,我怎么觉得以前人家告诉我的是20项填退休前的单位,然后21项填"退休"呢?
到底是怎么填啊?

f*a2009-12-13 08:12

20 楼

shaxixi学唱儿童歌曲，为什么我也听出浓浓的越剧味道
尤其是那一句 “飘荡在水中”的“荡”，余音袅袅，真是美得让人心中荡漾

L*k2009-12-13 08:12

21 楼

没听过sacd,刚看到wiki上面写了一个双盲实验
辨别率和扔硬币没差别～
In the audiophile community, the sound from the SACD format is thought to be
significantly better than older format Red Book CD recordings.[40] However,
in September 2007 the Audio Engineering Society published the results of a
year-long trial in which a range of subjects including professional
recording engineers were asked to discern the difference between SACD and
compact disc audio (44.1 kHz/16 bit) under double blind test conditions. Out
of 554 trials, there were 276 correct answers, a 49.8% success rate
corresponding almost exactly to the 50% that would have been expected by
chance guessing alone.

E*w2009-12-13 08:12

22 楼

本青蛙坚决不碰任何active managed mutual fund。涨上天也和我无关。这些mutual
fund别说80%不能beat index，只要你明白了其中的猫腻，说90%我都信。

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: It is ironic that bogleheads brought up such cliche that 80% (or whatever
: percentage) MM lose to index and at the same time use market-cap weighted
: index.
: What about AUM weighted active MM performance? I am sure the index will
: still has tiny little edges, but the margin will be significantly smaller.
: How about throw out high-fees and closet index funds? Vangaurd's active
: funds anyone?
: An average Joe trained tennis for a few days can say his tennis skill is
: better than 80% or maybe 90% world population, is he a good tennis player?

q*o2009-12-13 08:12

23 楼

像你说的这么填

【在 c********k 的大作中提到】

: 啊,我怎么觉得以前人家告诉我的是20项填退休前的单位,然后21项填"退休"呢?
: 到底是怎么填啊?

w*s2009-12-13 08:12

24 楼

ha,男声变女声唱.厉害...

j*r2009-12-13 08:12

25 楼

嘿嘿,这个很...我也觉得多声道才是最大差别,不过我想那定位就和现场不同了吧.

be
However,
a
Out

【在 L*****k 的大作中提到】

: 没听过sacd,刚看到wiki上面写了一个双盲实验
: 辨别率和扔硬币没差别～
: In the audiophile community, the sound from the SACD format is thought to be
: significantly better than older format Red Book CD recordings.[40] However,
: in September 2007 the Audio Engineering Society published the results of a
: year-long trial in which a range of subjects including professional
: recording engineers were asked to discern the difference between SACD and
: compact disc audio (44.1 kHz/16 bit) under double blind test conditions. Out
: of 554 trials, there were 276 correct answers, a 49.8% success rate
: corresponding almost exactly to the 50% that would have been expected by

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

26 楼

The key is what you are compraing with.
Similarly, you can throw out MFs with high-fees and closet-index funds.

【在 t***n 的大作中提到】

: 如果每个人都必须打tennis的话，能beat 80%的population不错了。
: 当然80%值得商榷，大于50%是肯定的。

c*k2009-12-13 08:12

27 楼

谢谢qoqo,我妈妈月底要在成都签证了,所以很怕帮妈妈把表给填错了.赶紧问问.你这么
一说,我就放心啦.

【在 q**o 的大作中提到】

: 像你说的这么填

x*i2009-12-13 08:12

28 楼

是男的[email protected]#$%

L*k2009-12-13 08:12

29 楼

我匆匆看了一下原文。
两声道回放的时候，作者花了精力match playback level
确实是这样，很多时候音量不一样，听感差别很大。

【在 j*********r 的大作中提到】

: 嘿嘿,这个很...我也觉得多声道才是最大差别,不过我想那定位就和现场不同了吧.
:
: be
: However,
: a
: Out

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

30 楼

An average Joe who spend his DD may not act like a monkey throwing dart at a
borad with 5000+ MF names, regardless if they are equal-weighted or AUM-
weighted.

【在 k***n 的大作中提到】

: an average Joe's expectation is to be above average, which index
: funds certainly meet
: the number of 80% is questionable anyway and I would not use it
: in the arguement

f*c2009-12-13 08:12

31 楼

祝所有的父母签证顺利

【在 c********k 的大作中提到】

: 谢谢qoqo,我妈妈月底要在成都签证了,所以很怕帮妈妈把表给填错了.赶紧问问.你这么
: 一说,我就放心啦.

s*i2009-12-13 08:12

32 楼

我怎么变成男的了？真囧

O*h2009-12-13 08:12

33 楼

:) 音响这个事情，不能说的太细:):):)

k*n2009-12-13 08:12

34 楼

S&P 500 index includes it all
every investment has its reasons behind it, after DD or not
some succeed and some fail
one has to respect the long term fact that index funds get the average
and that result is above average considering fees. this is just simple math

a

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: An average Joe who spend his DD may not act like a monkey throwing dart at a
: borad with 5000+ MF names, regardless if they are equal-weighted or AUM-
: weighted.

j*x2009-12-13 08:12

35 楼

你是不是搞错id啦，shaxixi MM啥时候变男的啦

【在 w*********s 的大作中提到】

: ha,男声变女声唱.厉害...

l*s2009-12-13 08:12

36 楼

听多声道SACD和CD的区别还是非常明显的 lol

be
However,
a
Out

【在 L*****k 的大作中提到】

: 没听过sacd,刚看到wiki上面写了一个双盲实验
: 辨别率和扔硬币没差别～
: In the audiophile community, the sound from the SACD format is thought to be
: significantly better than older format Red Book CD recordings.[40] However,
: in September 2007 the Audio Engineering Society published the results of a
: year-long trial in which a range of subjects including professional
: recording engineers were asked to discern the difference between SACD and
: compact disc audio (44.1 kHz/16 bit) under double blind test conditions. Out
: of 554 trials, there were 276 correct answers, a 49.8% success rate
: corresponding almost exactly to the 50% that would have been expected by

s*e2009-12-13 08:12

37 楼

所以，理论上说你自己买index的500 member，track index，连fee也省了。
不是更好？呵呵

math

【在 k***n 的大作中提到】

: S&P 500 index includes it all
: every investment has its reasons behind it, after DD or not
: some succeed and some fail
: one has to respect the long term fact that index funds get the average
: and that result is above average considering fees. this is just simple math
:
: a

L*k2009-12-13 08:12

38 楼

介绍一下你多声道解码的配置？

【在 l*******s 的大作中提到】

: 听多声道SACD和CD的区别还是非常明显的 lol
:
: be
: However,
: a
: Out

k*n2009-12-13 08:12

39 楼

DCA
it means you need to buy 500 stocks every month
and you need to rebalance when the list changes

【在 s*****e 的大作中提到】

: 所以，理论上说你自己买index的500 member，track index，连fee也省了。
: 不是更好？呵呵
:
: math

l*s2009-12-13 08:12

40 楼

sony的SACD机
金嗓子两声道前放三只
Pass Labs的两声道功放三只
B&W Matrix 801五只

【在 L*****k 的大作中提到】

: 介绍一下你多声道解码的配置？

s*e2009-12-13 08:12

41 楼

it is a pretty trivial service isn't it ?
呵呵。。

【在 k***n 的大作中提到】

: DCA
: it means you need to buy 500 stocks every month
: and you need to rebalance when the list changes

j*r2009-12-13 08:12

42 楼

这个要景仰一下.口水ing...另外请教SACD会全面取代CD吗?

【在 l*******s 的大作中提到】

: sony的SACD机
: 金嗓子两声道前放三只
: Pass Labs的两声道功放三只
: B&W Matrix 801五只

t*n2009-12-13 08:12

43 楼

人收费也低啊。比如Vanguard，VFIAX， 10K起，收费0.05%。
算你有钱人，投1M，人家也只收你500一年。
你试试自己搞500支股票每天rebalance？不谈人力，交易费都天上去了。还是500一年
省心吧。

【在 s*****e 的大作中提到】

: it is a pretty trivial service isn't it ?
: 呵呵。。

a*y2009-12-13 08:12

44 楼

physical media is dying

【在 j*********r 的大作中提到】

: 这个要景仰一下.口水ing...另外请教SACD会全面取代CD吗?

g*o2009-12-13 08:12

45 楼

那哥们在说反话？

【在 t***n 的大作中提到】

: 人收费也低啊。比如Vanguard，VFIAX， 10K起，收费0.05%。
: 算你有钱人，投1M，人家也只收你500一年。
: 你试试自己搞500支股票每天rebalance？不谈人力，交易费都天上去了。还是500一年
: 省心吧。

D*s2009-12-13 08:12

46 楼

https://secure.aes.org/forum/pubs/journal/?ID=2
http://drewdaniels.com/audible.pdf
这篇文章是比较有名的吸引眼球之作了，首先这个ADDA装置不是CDDA，转盘系统的伺服
电路和FIFO不一样，其次用的SACD碟片录音和制作也是非常大的问题，再次女性受访者
判断37.5%，有一个小白鼠答对了70%，而且这个小白鼠很了不起，因为瓶颈大家公认都
在于他们的回放系统，起码用耳机更准确一些。wiki上也写了一些对这篇文章的质疑，
另外我觉得双盲实验看似科学的表面下其实不太公平，人类的第一次听音，和对一段音
乐很熟悉之后再来辨别，差别是很大的。这台系统如果是为了检测音乐回放，就应该让
熟悉某段音乐的样本白鼠来听音，而不是找些街上的大妈来当打雷下雨听。
总之这篇paper作为单一幅面样本，远远不能对高码率音质更优秀这个结论产生影响。

be
However,
a
Out

【在 L*****k 的大作中提到】

: 没听过sacd,刚看到wiki上面写了一个双盲实验
: 辨别率和扔硬币没差别～
: In the audiophile community, the sound from the SACD format is thought to be
: significantly better than older format Red Book CD recordings.[40] However,
: in September 2007 the Audio Engineering Society published the results of a
: year-long trial in which a range of subjects including professional
: recording engineers were asked to discern the difference between SACD and
: compact disc audio (44.1 kHz/16 bit) under double blind test conditions. Out
: of 554 trials, there were 276 correct answers, a 49.8% success rate
: corresponding almost exactly to the 50% that would have been expected by

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

47 楼

Again, above average, what average? equal-weight average of the mutual fund
universe, or the selected subset after throwing out high-fees and closet
index funds?

math

【在 k***n 的大作中提到】

: S&P 500 index includes it all
: every investment has its reasons behind it, after DD or not
: some succeed and some fail
: one has to respect the long term fact that index funds get the average
: and that result is above average considering fees. this is just simple math
:
: a

j*k2009-12-13 08:12

48 楼

LP is replacing CD.. its kinda funny.. as CD was introduced to replace LP..
but the sales of LP went up 300% last year..
i beleive sacd and CD (and dvd, blueray) will go away completely in the next
5 years..
harddrive and streaming will replace everything..

【在 j*********r 的大作中提到】

: 这个要景仰一下.口水ing...另外请教SACD会全面取代CD吗?

k*n2009-12-13 08:12

49 楼

the average of the market this particular index represents

fund

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: Again, above average, what average? equal-weight average of the mutual fund
: universe, or the selected subset after throwing out high-fees and closet
: index funds?
:
: math

l*s2009-12-13 08:12

50 楼

我本来以为会，现在看来不会了。
下面的方向应该是直接用数字文件播放。
所以其实不该买CD了。但是我还是忍不住啊忍不住 lol

【在 j*********r 的大作中提到】

: 这个要景仰一下.口水ing...另外请教SACD会全面取代CD吗?

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

51 楼

Retail investors do not directly invest in market, they invested in (mostly)
MFs.

【在 k***n 的大作中提到】

: the average of the market this particular index represents
:
: fund

j*r2009-12-13 08:12

52 楼

我虽然也这样认为,但想想现在硬盘的质量,呵呵.或许SSD还有希望,不过也会毫无征兆地dead.搞得大家都要搞2-3个备份.CD就没这个问题啊

【在 l*******s 的大作中提到】

: 我本来以为会，现在看来不会了。
: 下面的方向应该是直接用数字文件播放。
: 所以其实不该买CD了。但是我还是忍不住啊忍不住 lol

g*o2009-12-13 08:12

53 楼

那么大盘指数和覆盖其他类型股票的指数怎么比？
市场平均，这是个虚无的概念，什么市场？市场很大，甚至不光是股票市场

【在 k***n 的大作中提到】

: the average of the market this particular index represents
:
: fund

l*s2009-12-13 08:12

54 楼

硬盘的质量总比CD好啊
我的老CD很多都不行了

【在 j*********r 的大作中提到】

: 我虽然也这样认为,但想想现在硬盘的质量,呵呵.或许SSD还有希望,不过也会毫无征兆地dead.搞得大家都要搞2-3个备份.CD就没这个问题啊

k*n2009-12-13 08:12

55 楼

you should have included other indices, such as bond, commodities and
so on, in the question. this is a question of asset allocation.
I have never said that investing in S&P 500 index by DCA can beat 50%
of all the investors out there.
I have repeatly said you should compare apple to apple
I have said "the market that particular index represents", not the entire
investment market. Again, you can call it whatever you want if you don't
like the term "average".

【在 g******o 的大作中提到】

: 那么大盘指数和覆盖其他类型股票的指数怎么比？
: 市场平均，这是个虚无的概念，什么市场？市场很大，甚至不光是股票市场

l*42009-12-13 08:12

56 楼

CD容易一屁股坐碎，我就坐碎过3张盘了

兆地dead.搞得大家都要搞2-3个备份.CD就没这个问题啊

【在 j*********r 的大作中提到】

: 我虽然也这样认为,但想想现在硬盘的质量,呵呵.或许SSD还有希望,不过也会毫无征兆地dead.搞得大家都要搞2-3个备份.CD就没这个问题啊

s*n2009-12-13 08:12

57 楼

这就是抬杠了。这个统计数字定义是非常清楚地：
80% actively managed fund cannot beat SP500 over long run.
我们只在说股票市场，别的市场另当别论。

【在 g******o 的大作中提到】

: 那么大盘指数和覆盖其他类型股票的指数怎么比？
: 市场平均，这是个虚无的概念，什么市场？市场很大，甚至不光是股票市场

p*e2009-12-13 08:12

58 楼

sacd抓轨以后用电脑输出两声道系统是不是和普通CD一样了？

【在 d******0 的大作中提到】

: 第一次听SACD，用DT880耳机听的，乐器更有质感，定位也好很多。
: 同一曲目，同一remaster的不同layer
: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0009U55RE
: 和那个RCA一套里面的同一张。
: 不过，偶听音乐大部分时间精神集中在演绎上，音质上提高估计还不至于让偶不听CD，
: 换买SACD。

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

59 楼

So what? 80% world population cannot beat a 50-yr old average joe who only
trained tennis for a week.

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】

: 这就是抬杠了。这个统计数字定义是非常清楚地：
: 80% actively managed fund cannot beat SP500 over long run.
: 我们只在说股票市场，别的市场另当别论。

p*e2009-12-13 08:12

60 楼

唉。。。
设备跟不上。。。需要两个DAC/前级/功放。。。
一个已经累死我了

【在 l*******s 的大作中提到】

: 完全同意
: 我一直鼓吹上多声道Hifi系统听SACD

b*n2009-12-13 08:12

61 楼

“80% actively managed fund cannot beat SP500 over long run”
这个论述里面，“80%”代表的是一些经过高度训练的基金经理们，根本不是你例子里
面80%的没有经过训练的普通人。这个例子你已经用了好几次，我一直没有明白其中的
逻辑何在。
如果有个方法，让人不用什么训练就能够在打网球上击败80%的普通人，另外一种方法
就是通过哪怕是几个星期的训练而打败80%的普通人，那应该选哪个呢？再进一步，如
果一个方法让人不用怎么训练就能击败80%的职业选手，那还有什么必要去刻苦训练呢？
投资领域最ironic的事情就是，这样一种看似不合常理的现象（不用怎么训练还能打败
大多数专业选手）还真存在。大多数不懂投资的人是很难相信这个事实的，而这也正是
很多人还能在金融服务业混口饭吃的原因。

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: So what? 80% world population cannot beat a 50-yr old average joe who only
: trained tennis for a week.

d*02009-12-13 08:12

62 楼

想试试，但是偶听的cd player 不支持多声道的。

【在 a******s 的大作中提到】

: 没试试多声道？这个才是和CD的大差别。

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

63 楼

The logic behind it is it is as absurd to use the whole MF universe as
comparison.

呢？

【在 b****n 的大作中提到】

: “80% actively managed fund cannot beat SP500 over long run”
: 这个论述里面，“80%”代表的是一些经过高度训练的基金经理们，根本不是你例子里
: 面80%的没有经过训练的普通人。这个例子你已经用了好几次，我一直没有明白其中的
: 逻辑何在。
: 如果有个方法，让人不用什么训练就能够在打网球上击败80%的普通人，另外一种方法
: 就是通过哪怕是几个星期的训练而打败80%的普通人，那应该选哪个呢？再进一步，如
: 果一个方法让人不用怎么训练就能击败80%的职业选手，那还有什么必要去刻苦训练呢？
: 投资领域最ironic的事情就是，这样一种看似不合常理的现象（不用怎么训练还能打败
: 大多数专业选手）还真存在。大多数不懂投资的人是很难相信这个事实的，而这也正是
: 很多人还能在金融服务业混口饭吃的原因。

w*72009-12-13 08:12

64 楼

借道问一下哈，没听过这种Hybrid SACD， WIKI了一下，发现它是有DSD layer和PCM
layer（非HD），如果放进普通CD机去读，只能读取PCM layer，因为普通CD机的光头和
SACD光头的焦距不一样无法读取DSD layer的音频。
那么用普通CD机去听Hybrid SACD的PCM Layer，效果也会比听同曲目普通CD版的效果
要好么？

b*n2009-12-13 08:12

65 楼

首先，就算以整个基金宇宙作为比较背景，这个宇宙里面的经理们也还是经过高度训练
的，而不是你例子里面80%的没有任何训练的普通人。所以你的打网球的例子不适合用
来做这样的类比。
第二，如果不以整个基金宇宙作为背景，那就要求投资者要具备选择优秀基金经理的能
力，而这一点也已经被证明基本不可能。
没有人说真正理解并且能够击败市场的经理不存在。问题时，作为一个普通人，甚至是
很懂投资的人，你能事前选出他们吗？事实上，如果你能选出来的话，你自己就已经具
备理解并击败市场的能力。

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: The logic behind it is it is as absurd to use the whole MF universe as
: comparison.
:
: 呢？

l*s2009-12-13 08:12

66 楼

不会

【在 w********7 的大作中提到】

: 借道问一下哈，没听过这种Hybrid SACD， WIKI了一下，发现它是有DSD layer和PCM
: layer（非HD），如果放进普通CD机去读，只能读取PCM layer，因为普通CD机的光头和
: SACD光头的焦距不一样无法读取DSD layer的音频。
: 那么用普通CD机去听Hybrid SACD的PCM Layer，效果也会比听同曲目普通CD版的效果
: 要好么？

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

67 楼

No need to be that difficult, I have said many times, throw out high-fees (e
.g., 20% more than categary average), and closet-index fund (no point to
invest in a high fee index fund), then you have a much smaller subset.
Vanguard actively managed funds demonstrated what they can do, as a good
example. They do not have many star managers (PRIMECAP may be the exception)
, low-fees carried them.

【在 b****n 的大作中提到】

: 首先，就算以整个基金宇宙作为比较背景，这个宇宙里面的经理们也还是经过高度训练
: 的，而不是你例子里面80%的没有任何训练的普通人。所以你的打网球的例子不适合用
: 来做这样的类比。
: 第二，如果不以整个基金宇宙作为背景，那就要求投资者要具备选择优秀基金经理的能
: 力，而这一点也已经被证明基本不可能。
: 没有人说真正理解并且能够击败市场的经理不存在。问题时，作为一个普通人，甚至是
: 很懂投资的人，你能事前选出他们吗？事实上，如果你能选出来的话，你自己就已经具
: 备理解并击败市场的能力。

D*s2009-12-13 08:12

68 楼

不是焦距不一样，是激光波长和能量不一样。
会稍微好一些，因为sacd的cd数据层有的是dxd转pcm，但是普通的cd有的是DAT PCM，
源头的文件素质不一样，也会有一些影响。

【在 w********7 的大作中提到】

: 借道问一下哈，没听过这种Hybrid SACD， WIKI了一下，发现它是有DSD layer和PCM
: layer（非HD），如果放进普通CD机去读，只能读取PCM layer，因为普通CD机的光头和
: SACD光头的焦距不一样无法读取DSD layer的音频。
: 那么用普通CD机去听Hybrid SACD的PCM Layer，效果也会比听同曲目普通CD版的效果
: 要好么？

b*n2009-12-13 08:12

69 楼

嗯，多谢你提醒这个。我一直在想着有时间看看vanguard那些active funds。

(e
exception)

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: No need to be that difficult, I have said many times, throw out high-fees (e
: .g., 20% more than categary average), and closet-index fund (no point to
: invest in a high fee index fund), then you have a much smaller subset.
: Vanguard actively managed funds demonstrated what they can do, as a good
: example. They do not have many star managers (PRIMECAP may be the exception)
: , low-fees carried them.

j*k2009-12-13 08:12

70 楼

it is not easy to extract DSD from SACD.
without special equipment, the only way yo do it is thru Playstation 3.
Someone had posted a hack program that runs on Playstaion 3 to read the DSD
directly off SACD and save locally to the playstation, you can then copy it
to your PC..
but still have 2 problems...
1) Major consumer applications, such as J River Media Center don't support
DSD, hence you have to manage these files separately using some other
application.
2) Very few DACs supports native DSD. You would need to get a DSD capable
DAC, like KORG MR-200S http://korg.com/Product.aspx?pd=417.

【在 p********e 的大作中提到】

: sacd抓轨以后用电脑输出两声道系统是不是和普通CD一样了？

k*n2009-12-13 08:12

71 楼

I dont know how accurate the number of 80% is
even it is, people are left with 20% chance to beat the market
it is indeed not that difficult, lol
as an active investor myself, all I want to say is I understant that
there is a good chance that I will be outperformed by those passive
investors who do not do as much DD as me, but I will try my best to
beat them.
A good financial advisor should disclose this to his clients that there
exists such a passive investment strategy with very low cost and it can
beat most of the actively managed funds. It is upto the clients themselves
which way they want to go. Simply throwing the high fee active
funds to the clients, IMO, is not what I expect to see from a good financial
advisor.

(e
exception)

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: No need to be that difficult, I have said many times, throw out high-fees (e
: .g., 20% more than categary average), and closet-index fund (no point to
: invest in a high fee index fund), then you have a much smaller subset.
: Vanguard actively managed funds demonstrated what they can do, as a good
: example. They do not have many star managers (PRIMECAP may be the exception)
: , low-fees carried them.

D*s2009-12-13 08:12

72 楼

主要是脱离了高质量，大数目的sacd碟片，dsd相比于PCM完全无优势，而且192/24的高
质量PCM已经开始传播，sacd抓轨很快就明日黄花了。非要听的话，软件PDM转PCM可以
作为很好的过度。

DSD
it

【在 j***k 的大作中提到】

: it is not easy to extract DSD from SACD.
: without special equipment, the only way yo do it is thru Playstation 3.
: Someone had posted a hack program that runs on Playstaion 3 to read the DSD
: directly off SACD and save locally to the playstation, you can then copy it
: to your PC..
: but still have 2 problems...
: 1) Major consumer applications, such as J River Media Center don't support
: DSD, hence you have to manage these files separately using some other
: application.
: 2) Very few DACs supports native DSD. You would need to get a DSD capable

s*e2009-12-13 08:12

73 楼

主要原因是active managed fund有fee，比passive要高不少。
所有active managed fund collectively，他们的alpha是一个零和游戏，考虑到fee，
就是一个负和游戏。
所以after fees, 80% lose to index并不奇怪。
我猜测，如果没有fee，可能50% win against index, 50% lose to index。

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: It is ironic that bogleheads brought up such cliche that 80% (or whatever
: percentage) MM lose to index and at the same time use market-cap weighted
: index.
: What about AUM weighted active MM performance? I am sure the index will
: still has tiny little edges, but the margin will be significantly smaller.
: How about throw out high-fees and closet index funds? Vangaurd's active
: funds anyone?
: An average Joe trained tennis for a few days can say his tennis skill is
: better than 80% or maybe 90% world population, is he a good tennis player?

l*l2009-12-13 08:12

74 楼

DSD
it
why u need rip it yourself? u can find pretty much all dsd iso online, just
download them. (welcome to my usenet club:))
I use hqplayer on pc to read dsd iso and then output to Mytek Digital
Stereo192-DSD. more and more DAC will have this feature built-in.
there is no reason to buy cd/sacd disc now.....

【在 j***k 的大作中提到】

: it is not easy to extract DSD from SACD.
: without special equipment, the only way yo do it is thru Playstation 3.
: Someone had posted a hack program that runs on Playstaion 3 to read the DSD
: directly off SACD and save locally to the playstation, you can then copy it
: to your PC..
: but still have 2 problems...
: 1) Major consumer applications, such as J River Media Center don't support
: DSD, hence you have to manage these files separately using some other
: application.
: 2) Very few DACs supports native DSD. You would need to get a DSD capable

D*a2009-12-13 08:12

75 楼

nice insight.

【在 s*****e 的大作中提到】

: 主要原因是active managed fund有fee，比passive要高不少。
: 所有active managed fund collectively，他们的alpha是一个零和游戏，考虑到fee，
: 就是一个负和游戏。
: 所以after fees, 80% lose to index并不奇怪。
: 我猜测，如果没有fee，可能50% win against index, 50% lose to index。

j*k2009-12-13 08:12

76 楼

i heard about mytek but never had the opportunity to audition it. How is it?
On PC, I like J River for it nice UI.
agree with you on your last point.. streaming is the way to go.. CD/SACD/DVD
/BLUERAY will all go away in 5 years.. we will end up with either streaming
or... LP.

just

【在 l********l 的大作中提到】

:
: DSD
: it
: why u need rip it yourself? u can find pretty much all dsd iso online, just
: download them. (welcome to my usenet club:))
: I use hqplayer on pc to read dsd iso and then output to Mytek Digital
: Stereo192-DSD. more and more DAC will have this feature built-in.
: there is no reason to buy cd/sacd disc now.....

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

77 楼

i am not sure if the tennis player analogy is accurate here.

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: It is ironic that bogleheads brought up such cliche that 80% (or whatever
: percentage) MM lose to index and at the same time use market-cap weighted
: index.
: What about AUM weighted active MM performance? I am sure the index will
: still has tiny little edges, but the margin will be significantly smaller.
: How about throw out high-fees and closet index funds? Vangaurd's active
: funds anyone?
: An average Joe trained tennis for a few days can say his tennis skill is
: better than 80% or maybe 90% world population, is he a good tennis player?

d*02009-12-13 08:12

78 楼

不会，但是大部分时候厂家做SACD的时候，都从新remaster，比如这次的RCA live，
hybrid SACD里的PCM layer 已经就比原来版本要好了。所以要买同一次remaster后的
PCM layer和DSD layer来做公平的比较。

【在 w********7 的大作中提到】

: 借道问一下哈，没听过这种Hybrid SACD， WIKI了一下，发现它是有DSD layer和PCM
: layer（非HD），如果放进普通CD机去读，只能读取PCM layer，因为普通CD机的光头和
: SACD光头的焦距不一样无法读取DSD layer的音频。
: 那么用普通CD机去听Hybrid SACD的PCM Layer，效果也会比听同曲目普通CD版的效果
: 要好么？

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

79 楼

Well not necessarily. For example, in a prolonged bear market, actvie
managed funds could collectively raise cash and sell equities to ...whom,
yes index funds investors, assuming indexer are all B&H, DCA type of guys.

【在 s*****e 的大作中提到】

: 主要原因是active managed fund有fee，比passive要高不少。
: 所有active managed fund collectively，他们的alpha是一个零和游戏，考虑到fee，
: 就是一个负和游戏。
: 所以after fees, 80% lose to index并不奇怪。
: 我猜测，如果没有fee，可能50% win against index, 50% lose to index。

L*k2009-12-13 08:12

80 楼

1.你怎么知道辨别是听一遍以后的结果？
2.文中报告，发烧友/专业工程师是 246 correct answers in 467 trials, （52.7%
）.这个样本比起女性那个18 in 48（37.5%）大多了
3.双盲实验作为统计学方法本身没有错，是否说明问题还是要看实验设计本身。
你的评论逻辑上不太一致啊。

【在 D**********s 的大作中提到】

: https://secure.aes.org/forum/pubs/journal/?ID=2
: http://drewdaniels.com/audible.pdf
: 这篇文章是比较有名的吸引眼球之作了，首先这个ADDA装置不是CDDA，转盘系统的伺服
: 电路和FIFO不一样，其次用的SACD碟片录音和制作也是非常大的问题，再次女性受访者
: 判断37.5%，有一个小白鼠答对了70%，而且这个小白鼠很了不起，因为瓶颈大家公认都
: 在于他们的回放系统，起码用耳机更准确一些。wiki上也写了一些对这篇文章的质疑，
: 另外我觉得双盲实验看似科学的表面下其实不太公平，人类的第一次听音，和对一段音
: 乐很熟悉之后再来辨别，差别是很大的。这台系统如果是为了检测音乐回放，就应该让
: 熟悉某段音乐的样本白鼠来听音，而不是找些街上的大妈来当打雷下雨听。
: 总之这篇paper作为单一幅面样本，远远不能对高码率音质更优秀这个结论产生影响。

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

81 楼

How and why?

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: i am not sure if the tennis player analogy is accurate here.

L*k2009-12-13 08:12

82 楼

你说一下除了黑胶转录的24192PCM，还有啥其他正规纯音乐来源？
电影不算。

【在 D**********s 的大作中提到】

: 主要是脱离了高质量，大数目的sacd碟片，dsd相比于PCM完全无优势，而且192/24的高
: 质量PCM已经开始传播，sacd抓轨很快就明日黄花了。非要听的话，软件PDM转PCM可以
: 作为很好的过度。
:
: DSD
: it

s*e2009-12-13 08:12

83 楼

assuming you buy and hold active funds as well, your argument has no effect

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: Well not necessarily. For example, in a prolonged bear market, actvie
: managed funds could collectively raise cash and sell equities to ...whom,
: yes index funds investors, assuming indexer are all B&H, DCA type of guys.

D*s2009-12-13 08:12

84 楼

黑胶有黑胶的瓶颈，录音的方式多种多样，既然是数字格式嘛未来数字录音还是主导。
上次有朋友发过这个了，一些免费的
http://www.2l.no/hires/index.html

【在 L*****k 的大作中提到】

: 你说一下除了黑胶转录的24192PCM，还有啥其他正规纯音乐来源？
: 电影不算。

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

85 楼

Your fund lose less than index because of cash position and rising cash
position.

effect

【在 s*****e 的大作中提到】

: assuming you buy and hold active funds as well, your argument has no effect

L*k2009-12-13 08:12

86 楼

除了LP以外，那个链接里面的东西来源不是SACD就是SABD啊。
没有看到content provider提供任何第一手的数码高清纯音乐。

【在 D**********s 的大作中提到】

: 黑胶有黑胶的瓶颈，录音的方式多种多样，既然是数字格式嘛未来数字录音还是主导。
: 上次有朋友发过这个了，一些免费的
: http://www.2l.no/hires/index.html

t*n2009-12-13 08:12

87 楼

这个谁知道了？没准人indexer抄了底，你还hold cash在看着呢。
跌的时候该割肉还是加仓谁也说不准。

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: Your fund lose less than index because of cash position and rising cash
: position.
:
: effect

D*s2009-12-13 08:12

88 楼

因为文章没有说是反复3次还是反复5次，文章又没有supplement article，实验方法只
能最简。
？不知道你要说什么，实验对象和实验方法都非常weak，样本差异只是上层建筑
逻辑有什么不一致呢？就是这个实验没有说明CD听感可以匹敌SACD，仅此而已。

【在 L*****k 的大作中提到】

: 1.你怎么知道辨别是听一遍以后的结果？
: 2.文中报告，发烧友/专业工程师是 246 correct answers in 467 trials, （52.7%
: ）.这个样本比起女性那个18 in 48（37.5%）大多了
: 3.双盲实验作为统计学方法本身没有错，是否说明问题还是要看实验设计本身。
: 你的评论逻辑上不太一致啊。

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

89 楼

I am refuting the concept that active-managed funds collectively cannot have
positive alpha even before fees mathematically. It is simple math, and
they could.

【在 t***n 的大作中提到】

: 这个谁知道了？没准人indexer抄了底，你还hold cash在看着呢。
: 跌的时候该割肉还是加仓谁也说不准。

D*s2009-12-13 08:12

90 楼

你知道DXD是什么吗？

【在 L*****k 的大作中提到】

: 除了LP以外，那个链接里面的东西来源不是SACD就是SABD啊。
: 没有看到content provider提供任何第一手的数码高清纯音乐。

s*n2009-12-13 08:12

91 楼

You are assuming you know when it's a bear market and when it's
a bull market in advance, while indexers assume you can never know.
Look, don't assume others are stupid. Do you really think if an
indexer knows for sure the market will drop, he/she will still
buy into any index?

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: Well not necessarily. For example, in a prolonged bear market, actvie
: managed funds could collectively raise cash and sell equities to ...whom,
: yes index funds investors, assuming indexer are all B&H, DCA type of guys.

D*s2009-12-13 08:12

92 楼

看见人家的original source file一栏下的DXD了么。

【在 L*****k 的大作中提到】

: 除了LP以外，那个链接里面的东西来源不是SACD就是SABD啊。
: 没有看到content provider提供任何第一手的数码高清纯音乐。

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

93 楼

I suggest you re-read my post before jump to conclusions, and stop making
assumption on me as you know absolutely nothing about me.
I am addressing the claim that skydive and others made that (mathematically)
active managed funds collectivety cannot have positive alpha because zoro-
sum game. My view is they collectively can, and yes mathematically, even
they compete against one another and I explained why and give an example,
whether they can achieve that goal on a AUM-weighted basis in realy life is
another matter. It has nothing to do with if I or whoever know or do not
know when bear market or bull market begin.
My personal opinion is they could have positive alpha collectively, just not
after fees. Unfortunately there is no such AUM-weighted comparison studies
as I know of. Academia in the index camp are either intellectually lazy,
imcompetent, or dishonest so nobody bother to do a reasonably fair
comparison.

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】

: You are assuming you know when it's a bear market and when it's
: a bull market in advance, while indexers assume you can never know.
: Look, don't assume others are stupid. Do you really think if an
: indexer knows for sure the market will drop, he/she will still
: buy into any index?

L*k2009-12-13 08:12

94 楼

第一个回答，我不想再争执
第二个回答，是你自己在原回帖单独把女性的实验结果提出来。你还不如直接说你认为
实验对象和实验方法都很弱然后给出你的证据。
第三个回答，你还是仔细看看你的原回帖吧。

【在 D**********s 的大作中提到】

: 看见人家的original source file一栏下的DXD了么。

k*n2009-12-13 08:12

95 楼

not
this is the end of the story. the higher fees over long run kill all the
noises that the actively managed funds might outperform or underperform
against index funds in a certain short/long period of time.

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: I suggest you re-read my post before jump to conclusions, and stop making
: assumption on me as you know absolutely nothing about me.
: I am addressing the claim that skydive and others made that (mathematically)
: active managed funds collectivety cannot have positive alpha because zoro-
: sum game. My view is they collectively can, and yes mathematically, even
: they compete against one another and I explained why and give an example,
: whether they can achieve that goal on a AUM-weighted basis in realy life is
: another matter. It has nothing to do with if I or whoever know or do not
: know when bear market or bull market begin.
: My personal opinion is they could have positive alpha collectively, just not

a*s2009-12-13 08:12

96 楼

欣赏音乐听的是演奏，是录音。
老艺术家们都死光了，老录音师也都死光了。
以后很长时间，注定是那些老录音们翻来覆去。

【在 L*****k 的大作中提到】

: 除了LP以外，那个链接里面的东西来源不是SACD就是SABD啊。
: 没有看到content provider提供任何第一手的数码高清纯音乐。

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

97 楼

Go with low fees, better yet, low fees, low AUM, low turnover and
concentrated portfolio where most likely you can get excessive alpha.
Not a call for actively managed funds, but if one wants to go that path with
strong reasons, it is that best shot for that path.

【在 k***n 的大作中提到】

:
: not
: this is the end of the story. the higher fees over long run kill all the
: noises that the actively managed funds might outperform or underperform
: against index funds in a certain short/long period of time.

D*s2009-12-13 08:12

98 楼

好啦，呵呵，我怎么觉得这几天和别人沟通都这么难呢，就算我错了好不，回俱乐部YY
去了。。。

【在 L*****k 的大作中提到】

: 第一个回答，我不想再争执
: 第二个回答，是你自己在原回帖单独把女性的实验结果提出来。你还不如直接说你认为
: 实验对象和实验方法都很弱然后给出你的证据。
: 第三个回答，你还是仔细看看你的原回帖吧。

s*n2009-12-13 08:12

99 楼

hehe, I don't know who you are and I don't know what you are
trying to say. But I do see the following words from you
"in a prolonged bear market, active managed funds could collectively raise
cash and sell equities to ...whom, yes index funds investors, assuming
indexer are all B&H, DCA type of guys"
And apparently you assumed you or the active fund manager know
when it's a bear market in advance.

mathematically)
is
not

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: I suggest you re-read my post before jump to conclusions, and stop making
: assumption on me as you know absolutely nothing about me.
: I am addressing the claim that skydive and others made that (mathematically)
: active managed funds collectivety cannot have positive alpha because zoro-
: sum game. My view is they collectively can, and yes mathematically, even
: they compete against one another and I explained why and give an example,
: whether they can achieve that goal on a AUM-weighted basis in realy life is
: another matter. It has nothing to do with if I or whoever know or do not
: know when bear market or bull market begin.
: My personal opinion is they could have positive alpha collectively, just not

L*k2009-12-13 08:12

100 楼

我看到了，
这些内容都是几个小厂在那里搞吧？说取代cd我怎么觉得还早。

【在 D**********s 的大作中提到】

: 看见人家的original source file一栏下的DXD了么。

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

101 楼

Way to build a strawman and then knock it down, great job.
Why knowing a bear market in advance for the actively managed fund
collectively is necessary for my example to be true? Or you just try to
distract the discussion and hijack my thread.

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】

: hehe, I don't know who you are and I don't know what you are
: trying to say. But I do see the following words from you
: "in a prolonged bear market, active managed funds could collectively raise
: cash and sell equities to ...whom, yes index funds investors, assuming
: indexer are all B&H, DCA type of guys"
: And apparently you assumed you or the active fund manager know
: when it's a bear market in advance.
:
: mathematically)
: is

L*k2009-12-13 08:12

102 楼

呵呵，我只是觉得要说服别人接受自己的观点，自己的论据最好要
严谨。否则即使你是对的，别人还是不服。重语气没用，有时适得
其反。

YY

【在 D**********s 的大作中提到】

: 好啦，呵呵，我怎么觉得这几天和别人沟通都这么难呢，就算我错了好不，回俱乐部YY
: 去了。。。

k*n2009-12-13 08:12

103 楼

everyone can have a judgement regarding
"where most likely you can get excessive alpha"
summing up them all, it is still a zero-sum game.
as much as I am bullish on gold/silver sector, you have JP Morgan shorting
them massively. Someone has to lose.

with

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: Go with low fees, better yet, low fees, low AUM, low turnover and
: concentrated portfolio where most likely you can get excessive alpha.
: Not a call for actively managed funds, but if one wants to go that path with
: strong reasons, it is that best shot for that path.

a*a2009-12-13 08:12

104 楼

content provider的现在很多阿。HDtracks这个公司是现在最知名的一个，另外还有很
多发烧唱片公司都开始提供自己出版的唱片的hi res下载。不仅是古典爵士，就连流行
摇滚界也已经开始了，paul mccartney, beatles, paul simon, tom petty, smashing
pumpkins, nine inch nails。。。。太多了

【在 L*****k 的大作中提到】

: 你说一下除了黑胶转录的24192PCM，还有啥其他正规纯音乐来源？
: 电影不算。

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

105 楼

Who are them? The funds with low fees, low turn-overs, not index huggers,
and low AUMs collectively?

【在 k***n 的大作中提到】

: everyone can have a judgement regarding
: "where most likely you can get excessive alpha"
: summing up them all, it is still a zero-sum game.
: as much as I am bullish on gold/silver sector, you have JP Morgan shorting
: them massively. Someone has to lose.
:
: with

i*d2009-12-13 08:12

106 楼

烧钱的玩意。
不过感觉很奇妙啊。

【在 a******s 的大作中提到】

: 没试试多声道？这个才是和CD的大差别。

k*n2009-12-13 08:12

107 楼

"them" refers to everyone playing "concentrated portfolio where most likely
you can get excessive alpha"

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: Who are them? The funds with low fees, low turn-overs, not index huggers,
: and low AUMs collectively?

m*m2009-12-13 08:12

108 楼

偶最悲剧的意识到新买的房子没有地方能当听音室的

【在 i*d 的大作中提到】

: 烧钱的玩意。
: 不过感觉很奇妙啊。

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

109 楼

There are actually some acdemic studies on that "active share" topic, but I
will put my emphasize on low cost, low turn-over, and low AUM, about in that
order.

likely

【在 k***n 的大作中提到】

: "them" refers to everyone playing "concentrated portfolio where most likely
: you can get excessive alpha"

g*n2009-12-13 08:12

110 楼

耳机

【在 m****m 的大作中提到】

: 偶最悲剧的意识到新买的房子没有地方能当听音室的

s*d2009-12-13 08:12

111 楼

"but I will try my best to beat them."
I am not going to comment on how difficult it is to do what you want to do.
Let's just think about how an impossible thing it is just to *figure* out,
number-wise, what it is that you want to beat.
Without creating a clear picture on what "them" looks like, the phrase "beat
them" makes no sense.
It is a daunting task, and here are some (and possibly more) things that you
must do in order to create such a bench for comparison.
* For every new dollar you invest in your own way, you figure out
hypothetically what the corresponding index funds amount it purchases;
(fortunately, you won't have to figure out the would-be impact on the
hypothetical bench investment when you sell stocks, since passive investors
don't buy and sell).
* keep track of the growth curve of the cumulative purchases;
* figure out what are the quarterly dividends or EOY distributions and the
corresponding impact they have on the total investment shares.
* figure out what happens when the would-be rebalance happens (something a
passive invest would do every so often, say, six months).
* figure out, what are short term, long term capital gains, trading losses (
if any), at the end of the year, in order to calculate the federal/state
taxes implications on your bottom line (1040). This by itself is pretty hard
to do since you have to take out your real investment gains/losses on your
tax returns and then supplement the would-be numbers.
And of course, you need to do the same thing to your own way of investing,
to closely track your own returns, buying and selling, fees, taxes,
cumulative sums that dynamically change over time.
Then you compare, after many, many, many years.
My bet is that you won't beat passively index-funds based investment.

【在 k***n 的大作中提到】

: I dont know how accurate the number of 80% is
: even it is, people are left with 20% chance to beat the market
: it is indeed not that difficult, lol
: as an active investor myself, all I want to say is I understant that
: there is a good chance that I will be outperformed by those passive
: investors who do not do as much DD as me, but I will try my best to
: beat them.
: A good financial advisor should disclose this to his clients that there
: exists such a passive investment strategy with very low cost and it can
: beat most of the actively managed funds. It is upto the clients themselves

i*d2009-12-13 08:12

112 楼

真希望啥时候去蹭听。
成倍的资金投入。到处是线。调试很费时间。
只有蹭听一条路。

【在 l*******s 的大作中提到】

: sony的SACD机
: 金嗓子两声道前放三只
: Pass Labs的两声道功放三只
: B&W Matrix 801五只

k*n2009-12-13 08:12

113 楼

your bet does not matter to me
yes I have to wait till the end to see what the return is and compare
but so far I have been beating index to a mile
and my calls are on this board and stock board to back it up
passive investment gets average return. that's it. Saying nobody can
beat it over long term is nonsense.

.
beat
you

【在 s*******d 的大作中提到】

: "but I will try my best to beat them."
: I am not going to comment on how difficult it is to do what you want to do.
: Let's just think about how an impossible thing it is just to *figure* out,
: number-wise, what it is that you want to beat.
: Without creating a clear picture on what "them" looks like, the phrase "beat
: them" makes no sense.
: It is a daunting task, and here are some (and possibly more) things that you
: must do in order to create such a bench for comparison.
: * For every new dollar you invest in your own way, you figure out
: hypothetically what the corresponding index funds amount it purchases;

d*02009-12-13 08:12

114 楼

为啥啊，没有多余的房间，还是琢磨着留给老三呢？

【在 m****m 的大作中提到】

: 偶最悲剧的意识到新买的房子没有地方能当听音室的

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

115 楼

.
It cuts both ways.

【在 s*******d 的大作中提到】

: "but I will try my best to beat them."
: I am not going to comment on how difficult it is to do what you want to do.
: Let's just think about how an impossible thing it is just to *figure* out,
: number-wise, what it is that you want to beat.
: Without creating a clear picture on what "them" looks like, the phrase "beat
: them" makes no sense.
: It is a daunting task, and here are some (and possibly more) things that you
: must do in order to create such a bench for comparison.
: * For every new dollar you invest in your own way, you figure out
: hypothetically what the corresponding index funds amount it purchases;

b*o2009-12-13 08:12

116 楼

just
几个问题请教liu兄一下
1. usenet有kleiber的orfeo贝4 SACD，gets/gilberto SHM-SACD，Esoteric remaster
系列没有？有的话俺也掏钱入个member。
2. HQplayer现在可以读SACD-R ISO了么？印象中老版是只能读DSDIFF/DSF file
3. 有没有试过foobar+SACD input设置成DSD驱动ASIO到mytek，和HQplayer比音质差多
少？
4. foobar+SACD input设置成 double precision PCM驱动ASIO到mytek，音质和DSD直
入又差多少？
谢啦。

【在 l********l 的大作中提到】

:
: DSD
: it
: why u need rip it yourself? u can find pretty much all dsd iso online, just
: download them. (welcome to my usenet club:))
: I use hqplayer on pc to read dsd iso and then output to Mytek Digital
: Stereo192-DSD. more and more DAC will have this feature built-in.
: there is no reason to buy cd/sacd disc now.....

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

117 楼

why not recommend some low fee/turn-over & high perf funds to us? if they
are good, i will sell my index fund tomorrow.

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: Who are them? The funds with low fees, low turn-overs, not index huggers,
: and low AUMs collectively?

m*m2009-12-13 08:12

118 楼

4BR都在2楼
孩子都睡了就没法放了
这里都没有地下室的

【在 d******0 的大作中提到】

: 为啥啊，没有多余的房间，还是琢磨着留给老三呢？

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

119 楼

As a general rule, I do not recommend actively managed funds that I hold,
simply because I have no reason to help them to grow AUM.
I guess Vanguard actively managed funds are good place to start with.

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: why not recommend some low fee/turn-over & high perf funds to us? if they
: are good, i will sell my index fund tomorrow.

a*s2009-12-13 08:12

120 楼

听不熟悉的音乐的确不容易辨别,稍微熟悉点的我都能听出差别来.如果一定要大妈参加
双盲,先得培训以两个礼拜,看看听不听得出MP3和CD的区别.如果那都搞不定,还指望大
妈甄别CD和SACD?

【在 D**********s 的大作中提到】

: https://secure.aes.org/forum/pubs/journal/?ID=2
: http://drewdaniels.com/audible.pdf
: 这篇文章是比较有名的吸引眼球之作了，首先这个ADDA装置不是CDDA，转盘系统的伺服
: 电路和FIFO不一样，其次用的SACD碟片录音和制作也是非常大的问题，再次女性受访者
: 判断37.5%，有一个小白鼠答对了70%，而且这个小白鼠很了不起，因为瓶颈大家公认都
: 在于他们的回放系统，起码用耳机更准确一些。wiki上也写了一些对这篇文章的质疑，
: 另外我觉得双盲实验看似科学的表面下其实不太公平，人类的第一次听音，和对一段音
: 乐很熟悉之后再来辨别，差别是很大的。这台系统如果是为了检测音乐回放，就应该让
: 熟悉某段音乐的样本白鼠来听音，而不是找些街上的大妈来当打雷下雨听。
: 总之这篇paper作为单一幅面样本，远远不能对高码率音质更优秀这个结论产生影响。

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

121 楼

suddenly mute about concrete fund selection after such a windy argument?
i guess case closed then.

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: As a general rule, I do not recommend actively managed funds that I hold,
: simply because I have no reason to help them to grow AUM.
: I guess Vanguard actively managed funds are good place to start with.

d*02009-12-13 08:12

122 楼

嗯，和偶的情况一样，音箱只好放客厅。自己房间里放耳机。

【在 m****m 的大作中提到】

: 4BR都在2楼
: 孩子都睡了就没法放了
: 这里都没有地下室的

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

123 楼

I did not expect to meet someone in virtual internet world showing certain
characteristic depicted in Lu Xun's only novella. I guess I was wrong.

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: suddenly mute about concrete fund selection after such a windy argument?
: i guess case closed then.

a*s2009-12-13 08:12

124 楼

摇滚旋律不太好又太吵的出高清很没意思,双盲测这类的估计很挑战.

smashing

【在 a****a 的大作中提到】

: content provider的现在很多阿。HDtracks这个公司是现在最知名的一个，另外还有很
: 多发烧唱片公司都开始提供自己出版的唱片的hi res下载。不仅是古典爵士，就连流行
: 摇滚界也已经开始了，paul mccartney, beatles, paul simon, tom petty, smashing
: pumpkins, nine inch nails。。。。太多了

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

125 楼

not sure what you were trying to say. apparently one cannot make a strong
argument without backing it up with evidence.

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: I did not expect to meet someone in virtual internet world showing certain
: characteristic depicted in Lu Xun's only novella. I guess I was wrong.

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

126 楼

Never mind.
The evidence are Vanguard actively managed funds.

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: not sure what you were trying to say. apparently one cannot make a strong
: argument without backing it up with evidence.

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

127 楼

i wish you gave me other examples. isn't it ironic that john bogle was the
founder of vangard?

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: Never mind.
: The evidence are Vanguard actively managed funds.

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

128 楼

Why? Jack uses both index and actively managed funds, such as Wellington, he
also think bond index does not make sense, at least now. I do not find
anything ironic here.
I kinda suspect VG actively managed funds drive some of his acolytes nuts.

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: i wish you gave me other examples. isn't it ironic that john bogle was the
: founder of vangard?

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

129 楼

let's face it, actively managed fund is side dish for vanguard. bogle just
talked about "two dates" in fund history. http://johncbogle.com/wordpress/category/recent-speeches/
seems to me that u have ur own definition of mf. that's ok. it makes ur
argument skewed though if u insist using it to compare with index funds.

he

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: Why? Jack uses both index and actively managed funds, such as Wellington, he
: also think bond index does not make sense, at least now. I do not find
: anything ironic here.
: I kinda suspect VG actively managed funds drive some of his acolytes nuts.

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

130 楼

It is too bad that VG actively managed funds outperform, and the fact in
itself drives some ideologues nuts.
And I stand by my statement that any research which is not AUM weighted,
include high ER and closet-index funds are intellectually lazy and dishonest.

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: let's face it, actively managed fund is side dish for vanguard. bogle just
: talked about "two dates" in fund history. http://johncbogle.com/wordpress/category/recent-speeches/
: seems to me that u have ur own definition of mf. that's ok. it makes ur
: argument skewed though if u insist using it to compare with index funds.
:
: he

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

131 楼

it drives no one here nuts. there are many studies that index funds
outperform actively managed funds with evidence of many years' data. if you
pick a thin slice of mfs with relatively short period of data, u still want
to claim "outperform", the argument is weak at best, misleading at worst. at
the end of day, people will vote with their $.

dishonest.

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: It is too bad that VG actively managed funds outperform, and the fact in
: itself drives some ideologues nuts.
: And I stand by my statement that any research which is not AUM weighted,
: include high ER and closet-index funds are intellectually lazy and dishonest.

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

132 楼

Those studies have something in common, they compare the whole active funds
universe and equal weight, which are intellectually lazy and dishonest. Any
investor who do his or her DD won't invest that way. Or you try to tell me
ER and AUM has no signifivant negetive impact on TR? Or anyone should be
surprised that closet-index funds will underperform, given they closely
mirron index yet charge higher fees?
Actually I love to see people move to index funds, it is of my interest for
at least two reasons, one, it increases competition in pricing and hopefully
drive ER down for the funds that I own, and two, it increase the
inefficiency of the market and create more mispricing opportunities for my
funds managers to take advantage.

you
want
at

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: it drives no one here nuts. there are many studies that index funds
: outperform actively managed funds with evidence of many years' data. if you
: pick a thin slice of mfs with relatively short period of data, u still want
: to claim "outperform", the argument is weak at best, misleading at worst. at
: the end of day, people will vote with their $.
:
: dishonest.

l*g2009-12-13 08:12

133 楼

well said

you
want
at

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: it drives no one here nuts. there are many studies that index funds
: outperform actively managed funds with evidence of many years' data. if you
: pick a thin slice of mfs with relatively short period of data, u still want
: to claim "outperform", the argument is weak at best, misleading at worst. at
: the end of day, people will vote with their $.
:
: dishonest.

s*i2009-12-13 08:12

134 楼

20% can beat. it is a big percentage in my opinion.

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

135 楼

Would u keep buying lottery with the same odds?

20% can beat. it is a big percentage in my opinion.

【在 s********i 的大作中提到】

: 20% can beat. it is a big percentage in my opinion.

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

136 楼

Are you assuming investors are dart throwing monkeys?

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: Would u keep buying lottery with the same odds?
:
: 20% can beat. it is a big percentage in my opinion.

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

137 楼

Be cool. No one is fighting with you here, but I am not seeing any new from
your 1st posting and 10th.
We can better use time somewhere else. Happy investing.

Those studies have something in common, they compare the whole active funds
universe and........

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: Those studies have something in common, they compare the whole active funds
: universe and equal weight, which are intellectually lazy and dishonest. Any
: investor who do his or her DD won't invest that way. Or you try to tell me
: ER and AUM has no signifivant negetive impact on TR? Or anyone should be
: surprised that closet-index funds will underperform, given they closely
: mirron index yet charge higher fees?
: Actually I love to see people move to index funds, it is of my interest for
: at least two reasons, one, it increases competition in pricing and hopefully
: drive ER down for the funds that I own, and two, it increase the
: inefficiency of the market and create more mispricing opportunities for my

r*m2009-12-13 08:12

138 楼

I remember there have been quite a few studies in the past decade that
showed investors (or fund managers for this matter) were even worse than
dart throwing monkeys?

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: Are you assuming investors are dart throwing monkeys?

k*n2009-12-13 08:12

139 楼

I dislike those brokers who sell actively managed fund to potential
passive investors without disclosing that most of them indeed lose to
index funds in a long run.
But let's face it, index funds are for idiots, who dont need to spend
time and energy but can get an average return, which is actually very good
but treating it like a religion and claiming this passive way is near
unbeatable is another extreme, and plain ridiculous.

from
funds

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: Be cool. No one is fighting with you here, but I am not seeing any new from
: your 1st posting and 10th.
: We can better use time somewhere else. Happy investing.
:
: Those studies have something in common, they compare the whole active funds
: universe and........

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

140 楼

I actually have a slightly different opinion. I dislike folks like Rick
Ferri even more who sell index funds and charge 0.5-1% fees, sometimes more.
I mean, it is a fantastic business with minimum stress, you do not need to
explain to your client much when things went wrong, just point to the market
, and those "studies". I have to congrutulate them as good businesmen. It is
their business interest in keep publishing those "studies".
As a side note, the biggest losers collectively are actually not investors
who choose either active or passive investment vehicles. It is obvious if
one looks at the difference between fund total return and investor return.
These informations are readily available in M*.

【在 k***n 的大作中提到】

: I dislike those brokers who sell actively managed fund to potential
: passive investors without disclosing that most of them indeed lose to
: index funds in a long run.
: But let's face it, index funds are for idiots, who dont need to spend
: time and energy but can get an average return, which is actually very good
: but treating it like a religion and claiming this passive way is near
: unbeatable is another extreme, and plain ridiculous.
:
: from
: funds

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

141 楼

human emotion is usually a negative force in investing.

I remember there have been quite a few studies in the past decade that
showed investors ........

【在 r****m 的大作中提到】

: I remember there have been quite a few studies in the past decade that
: showed investors (or fund managers for this matter) were even worse than
: dart throwing monkeys?

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

142 楼

That is sadly true that investor returns lag fund returns significantly. My
impression is the higher the volatility of the fund, the bigger the
difference is. The poster child is CGMFX.

【在 r****m 的大作中提到】

: I remember there have been quite a few studies in the past decade that
: showed investors (or fund managers for this matter) were even worse than
: dart throwing monkeys?

k*n2009-12-13 08:12

143 楼

so you can use it in the opposite way and get higher winning odds, lol

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: human emotion is usually a negative force in investing.
:
: I remember there have been quite a few studies in the past decade that
: showed investors ........

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

144 楼

no need to fight with human nature. stocks appreciate in long run; i would
be happy as long as i can get my slice of share.

【在 k***n 的大作中提到】

: so you can use it in the opposite way and get higher winning odds, lol

s*i2009-12-13 08:12

145 楼

五张彩票就能中一张，当然买。

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: Would u keep buying lottery with the same odds?
:
: 20% can beat. it is a big percentage in my opinion.

s*i2009-12-13 08:12

146 楼

如果真有20%能beat，那么用过去的performance简单做一个screening，挑出20%去做，
那么最后beat的概率会很高，如果不是100%beat的话。

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

147 楼

are you serious? this is one of the most common mistakes an investor can
make when pick a fund.

【在 s********i 的大作中提到】

: 如果真有20%能beat，那么用过去的performance简单做一个screening，挑出20%去做，
: 那么最后beat的概率会很高，如果不是100%beat的话。

s*n2009-12-13 08:12

148 楼

LOL. What if the list changed completely after 6 months?

【在 s********i 的大作中提到】

: 如果真有20%能beat，那么用过去的performance简单做一个screening，挑出20%去做，
: 那么最后beat的概率会很高，如果不是100%beat的话。

l*g2009-12-13 08:12

149 楼

那就再来一轮，呵呵

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】

: LOL. What if the list changed completely after 6 months?

x*n2009-12-13 08:12

150 楼

大家是不是都犯了一个错误：把"cannot beat"等同于"lose to"了
除了输、赢外，还有一种可能就是打平。两者（某基金和指数)的表现相差
在足够小的范围内算作打平。对于一个人作为养老的几十万美元长期投资，
最终差个几十百把块真的没什么区别。
所以在考虑到基金的管理费时，20%好于指数，40%差于指数，40%基本打平从
而造成"80% cannot beat index"就没那么匪夷所思了

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: It is ironic that bogleheads brought up such cliche that 80% (or whatever
: percentage) MM lose to index and at the same time use market-cap weighted
: index.
: What about AUM weighted active MM performance? I am sure the index will
: still has tiny little edges, but the margin will be significantly smaller.
: How about throw out high-fees and closet index funds? Vangaurd's active
: funds anyone?
: An average Joe trained tennis for a few days can say his tennis skill is
: better than 80% or maybe 90% world population, is he a good tennis player?

x*n2009-12-13 08:12

151 楼

没有人能提前确定将来是一个prolonged bear market
这些事情只能赌，赌对了就是那20%的基金；赌错了，前面的大牛市一脚踏空
就亏到姥姥家了。
例如2009年3月，从之前的种种股市走向和经济形势来看都是一个大熊市，然后
你就卖股票换现金，然后。。。

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: Well not necessarily. For example, in a prolonged bear market, actvie
: managed funds could collectively raise cash and sell equities to ...whom,
: yes index funds investors, assuming indexer are all B&H, DCA type of guys.

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

152 楼

let's not underestimate the expense ratio over long term.
it doesn't look a big deal, avg expense ratio for large funds is 1.2%.
for a time horizon of 10 years, a quick math is (1-0.012) power 10 = 0.886.
for SPY index fund, (1- 0.001) power 10 = 0.99.

【在 x******n 的大作中提到】

: 大家是不是都犯了一个错误：把"cannot beat"等同于"lose to"了
: 除了输、赢外，还有一种可能就是打平。两者（某基金和指数)的表现相差
: 在足够小的范围内算作打平。对于一个人作为养老的几十万美元长期投资，
: 最终差个几十百把块真的没什么区别。
: 所以在考虑到基金的管理费时，20%好于指数，40%差于指数，40%基本打平从
: 而造成"80% cannot beat index"就没那么匪夷所思了

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

153 楼

Same here. And I do not think 100 junk researches make the claim any more
credible.

from
funds

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: Be cool. No one is fighting with you here, but I am not seeing any new from
: your 1st posting and 10th.
: We can better use time somewhere else. Happy investing.
:
: Those studies have something in common, they compare the whole active funds
: universe and........

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

154 楼

u made ur point already. take a hint, let's talk to others.

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: Same here. And I do not think 100 junk researches make the claim any more
: credible.
:
: from
: funds

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

155 楼

I made my point clear from the opening post, but it does not stop people
bring those junk studies.

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: u made ur point already. take a hint, let's talk to others.

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

156 楼

lol.

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: I made my point clear from the opening post, but it does not stop people
: bring those junk studies.

s*i2009-12-13 08:12

157 楼

i am not picking A fund. I am picking 20% of funds or a fund index.

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: are you serious? this is one of the most common mistakes an investor can
: make when pick a fund.

s*i2009-12-13 08:12

158 楼

会吗？don't just what if...

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】

: LOL. What if the list changed completely after 6 months?

r*z2009-12-13 08:12

159 楼

也许会，也许不会。
然后，~~~~~~~~~~~ 您打算赌一把吗？

【在 s********i 的大作中提到】

: 会吗？don't just what if...

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

160 楼

how? no one with even modest experience in investing will chase past fund
performance like you proposed here...

如果真有20%能beat，那么用过去的performance简单做一个screening，挑出20%去做，
那么最后beat的概率会很高，如果不是100%beat的话。

【在 s********i 的大作中提到】

: i am not picking A fund. I am picking 20% of funds or a fund index.

s*i2009-12-13 08:12

161 楼

举个例子，sp500其中的股票，有些跑过sp500（20%），有些没跑过（80%），那么我设
计一个fund，把过去10或15年每年按跑过的按ranking统计出来，按top 20%取个交集，
well，可能选出来只有10%或更少，但我相信不会是空集，也就是说跑过和没跑过的不
可能是random的，再从剩下的按most recent performance比较好的补上10%，这样我就
有sp500的20%，你觉得我这20%的sp500下一年能跑过sp500的概率是多少？50-50?

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: how? no one with even modest experience in investing will chase past fund
: performance like you proposed here...
:
: 如果真有20%能beat，那么用过去的performance简单做一个screening，挑出20%去做，
: 那么最后beat的概率会很高，如果不是100%beat的话。

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

162 楼

past performance is not an indicator for future performance. people say that
for a reason. your plan can easily collect many maturing companies with
faded glory. microsoft can get into it in 2000, apple can in 2012.

【在 s********i 的大作中提到】

: 举个例子，sp500其中的股票，有些跑过sp500（20%），有些没跑过（80%），那么我设
: 计一个fund，把过去10或15年每年按跑过的按ranking统计出来，按top 20%取个交集，
: well，可能选出来只有10%或更少，但我相信不会是空集，也就是说跑过和没跑过的不
: 可能是random的，再从剩下的按most recent performance比较好的补上10%，这样我就
: 有sp500的20%，你觉得我这20%的sp500下一年能跑过sp500的概率是多少？50-50?

s*f2009-12-13 08:12

163 楼

我觉得你最后这个说的挺对，指数就是赢过大部分啥都不懂瞎炒股的，这就够了。
我个人的体会是，如果不是专业或者有很大兴趣，炒股要赢过指数，需要投入学
习的知识和精力，和直接买指数比起来得不偿失。至于你说只要训练过就能轻易
战胜指数，这个我也挺怀疑的：如果是这样，绝大部分MF，扣除费用，应该都在
指数之上？实际是这样吗？指数基金是不是赢过大多数的MF，我也不知道。你不
妨随机挑几个剔除high-fee的MF比比，给我们看看结果，也算是普及了啊。

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: It is ironic that bogleheads brought up such cliche that 80% (or whatever
: percentage) MM lose to index and at the same time use market-cap weighted
: index.
: What about AUM weighted active MM performance? I am sure the index will
: still has tiny little edges, but the margin will be significantly smaller.
: How about throw out high-fees and closet index funds? Vangaurd's active
: funds anyone?
: An average Joe trained tennis for a few days can say his tennis skill is
: better than 80% or maybe 90% world population, is he a good tennis player?

s*i2009-12-13 08:12

164 楼

for a single fund or stock, that is true. however, for a collection of
stocks or funds, it is different. another example, Dow30 may beat SP500
consistently.

that

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: past performance is not an indicator for future performance. people say that
: for a reason. your plan can easily collect many maturing companies with
: faded glory. microsoft can get into it in 2000, apple can in 2012.

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

165 楼

from long term, dow30 performance is almost identical with sp500. remember,
if you can find such rules that are consistently valid, you will be very
very rich using leverage or derivative.

【在 s********i 的大作中提到】

: for a single fund or stock, that is true. however, for a collection of
: stocks or funds, it is different. another example, Dow30 may beat SP500
: consistently.
:
: that

s*i2009-12-13 08:12

166 楼

ok, let's say dow30 and sp500 are identical. if 20% vs 80% theory is true
and past performance is not for future, dow30 should do much worse than
sp500, right? because you only pick up 30 stocks vs 500.

,

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: from long term, dow30 performance is almost identical with sp500. remember,
: if you can find such rules that are consistently valid, you will be very
: very rich using leverage or derivative.

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

167 楼

sorry. It doesn't make sense to me.
I am not sure how well u know about investing , probably someone here can
understand u better.

ok, let's say dow30 and sp500 are identical. if 20% vs 80% theory is true
and past perfo........

【在 s********i 的大作中提到】

: ok, let's say dow30 and sp500 are identical. if 20% vs 80% theory is true
: and past performance is not for future, dow30 should do much worse than
: sp500, right? because you only pick up 30 stocks vs 500.
:
: ,

s*i2009-12-13 08:12

168 楼

按照你的理论当然不make sense。为什么Dow30会和SP500一样的performance？这说明
这30只股票挑选的有道理，而不是任选30只股票就可以的。回到原始的话题，能不能挑
出20%的fund而使其beat大盘的概率高于平均？我觉得短期内或是中期内是可以的。
投资理论有很多assumption和似是而非的东西，fund的performance也受很多因素影响
，比如最简单的随着fund size的增长要保持它的投资理念就会很难。
我个人觉得，投资其实是个很虚的概念，因为影响因素太多，最简单的办法就是index
funds+portfolio management+rebalance，啥也别想。

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: sorry. It doesn't make sense to me.
: I am not sure how well u know about investing , probably someone here can
: understand u better.
:
: ok, let's say dow30 and sp500 are identical. if 20% vs 80% theory is true
: and past perfo........

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

169 楼

dow 30 were picked because of those companies are representatives of US
economy. it has nothing to do the company stock performance.

index

【在 s********i 的大作中提到】

: 按照你的理论当然不make sense。为什么Dow30会和SP500一样的performance？这说明
: 这30只股票挑选的有道理，而不是任选30只股票就可以的。回到原始的话题，能不能挑
: 出20%的fund而使其beat大盘的概率高于平均？我觉得短期内或是中期内是可以的。
: 投资理论有很多assumption和似是而非的东西，fund的performance也受很多因素影响
: ，比如最简单的随着fund size的增长要保持它的投资理念就会很难。
: 我个人觉得，投资其实是个很虚的概念，因为影响因素太多，最简单的办法就是index
: funds+portfolio management+rebalance，啥也别想。

s*i2009-12-13 08:12

170 楼

i never said dow30 are picked by performance. all i am saying is that it is
possible to pick stocks to do something, for example, have "better chance"
to have higher performance under some conditions.

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: dow 30 were picked because of those companies are representatives of US
: economy. it has nothing to do the company stock performance.
:
: index

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

171 楼

ok, that's fair. can you read your posting again and explain your thinking
here. it sounds gibberish to me.
"ok, let's say dow30 and sp500 are identical. if 20% vs 80% theory is true
and past performance is not for future, dow30 should do much worse than
sp500, right? because you only pick up 30 stocks vs 500."

is

【在 s********i 的大作中提到】

: i never said dow30 are picked by performance. all i am saying is that it is
: possible to pick stocks to do something, for example, have "better chance"
: to have higher performance under some conditions.

s*i2009-12-13 08:12

172 楼

ok. here what i am thinking, dow30 is the same performance as sp500 and
dow30 is only 6% of sp500. if stock performance is totally random, i.e., one
cannot predict that any stock can beat or miss sp500 in the near future
based on past performance, then the performance of any 6% of sp500 should
behave the same as dow30 or sp500.

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: ok, that's fair. can you read your posting again and explain your thinking
: here. it sounds gibberish to me.
: "ok, let's say dow30 and sp500 are identical. if 20% vs 80% theory is true
: and past performance is not for future, dow30 should do much worse than
: sp500, right? because you only pick up 30 stocks vs 500."
:
: is

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

173 楼

that's more like it.

one

【在 s********i 的大作中提到】

: ok. here what i am thinking, dow30 is the same performance as sp500 and
: dow30 is only 6% of sp500. if stock performance is totally random, i.e., one
: cannot predict that any stock can beat or miss sp500 in the near future
: based on past performance, then the performance of any 6% of sp500 should
: behave the same as dow30 or sp500.

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

174 楼

The majority (~70%) of Vanguard actively managed funds beat their benchmark
(index) over 10 and 15 years.

【在 s**f 的大作中提到】

: 我觉得你最后这个说的挺对，指数就是赢过大部分啥都不懂瞎炒股的，这就够了。
: 我个人的体会是，如果不是专业或者有很大兴趣，炒股要赢过指数，需要投入学
: 习的知识和精力，和直接买指数比起来得不偿失。至于你说只要训练过就能轻易
: 战胜指数，这个我也挺怀疑的：如果是这样，绝大部分MF，扣除费用，应该都在
: 指数之上？实际是这样吗？指数基金是不是赢过大多数的MF，我也不知道。你不
: 妨随机挑几个剔除high-fee的MF比比，给我们看看结果，也算是普及了啊。

w*n2009-12-13 08:12

175 楼

大家还在辩论这个话题啊？
别说Bogle的这个结论有它非常误导人的地方，就算是准确的也很正常。这就是个
Pareto 80－20 law。
你当然可以因为只有20%的同学能考到80分以上就放弃好好学习，或是选择抄袭一个中
等生的答卷；你也可以好好努力，争取拿到优等生才有的成绩。compounding 决定了哪
怕你只是拿到85分，几十年下来都比80分的有天壤之别。正是由于有这样的天壤之别，
多拿一分都很不容易，愿不愿意下苦功就是个人选择了。

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

176 楼

do u really think "下苦功" is really sufficient for a good performance in
stock market? jim cramer probably agrees with you, but i don't. of course,
some people can beat s&p year after year. it demands skills a vast majority
of people here don't have.

【在 w***n 的大作中提到】

: 大家还在辩论这个话题啊？
: 别说Bogle的这个结论有它非常误导人的地方，就算是准确的也很正常。这就是个
: Pareto 80－20 law。
: 你当然可以因为只有20%的同学能考到80分以上就放弃好好学习，或是选择抄袭一个中
: 等生的答卷；你也可以好好努力，争取拿到优等生才有的成绩。compounding 决定了哪
: 怕你只是拿到85分，几十年下来都比80分的有天壤之别。正是由于有这样的天壤之别，
: 多拿一分都很不容易，愿不愿意下苦功就是个人选择了。

l*g2009-12-13 08:12

177 楼

呵呵，投你一票

majority

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: do u really think "下苦功" is really sufficient for a good performance in
: stock market? jim cramer probably agrees with you, but i don't. of course,
: some people can beat s&p year after year. it demands skills a vast majority
: of people here don't have.

l*g2009-12-13 08:12

178 楼

those who consistently beat the market are insiders

majority

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: do u really think "下苦功" is really sufficient for a good performance in
: stock market? jim cramer probably agrees with you, but i don't. of course,
: some people can beat s&p year after year. it demands skills a vast majority
: of people here don't have.

w*n2009-12-13 08:12

179 楼

Of course working hard alone is not sufficient. You need talent too. I do
agree with you that majority of people don't have it. Here is no different
than the general public. There is no argument about that.
No matter what people do, majority are mediocre, only a small percentage can
be very successful. Why would investing be different?
But I wouldn't discourage others who want to excel in investing, only
because I don't have the talent or I don't want to do diligence.

majority

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: do u really think "下苦功" is really sufficient for a good performance in
: stock market? jim cramer probably agrees with you, but i don't. of course,
: some people can beat s&p year after year. it demands skills a vast majority
: of people here don't have.

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

180 楼

i never dissuaded all the people from DIY stock picking. if we really know
ourselves and difficulty of stock/fund picking, relying on hope is never a
good strategy.

【在 w***n 的大作中提到】

: Of course working hard alone is not sufficient. You need talent too. I do
: agree with you that majority of people don't have it. Here is no different
: than the general public. There is no argument about that.
: No matter what people do, majority are mediocre, only a small percentage can
: be very successful. Why would investing be different?
: But I wouldn't discourage others who want to excel in investing, only
: because I don't have the talent or I don't want to do diligence.
:
: majority

w*n2009-12-13 08:12

181 楼

Okay, then at least we have a little common ground. But I don't get where
relying on hope comes from. Only a small percentage can be successful in
about anything. Does that statement sound hopeful to you? The glass is 20%
full rather than 80% empty? LOL I like the spirit.
If you take all the funds/investors in the universe, then of course the
majority have mediocre performance if not failure. At least to me, that is
not a convincing reason that one should just surrender and accept mediocrity
.
When someone suggests average investors should just give up and invest in
index funds, and later active funds from his own company after he left prove
active funds can do very well even if they don't have Peter Lynch. We
should at least think about it...

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: i never dissuaded all the people from DIY stock picking. if we really know
: ourselves and difficulty of stock/fund picking, relying on hope is never a
: good strategy.

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

182 楼

hedge fund managers don;t win by their spirit but by more resource, more
star managers and perhaps more info we don't have access to.
also be more quantitative about fee/commission/tax when u look into the
investing universe. for people actively trading in the market, usually
middlemen and irs win, and investor lose, so it is not exactly a 0 sum game.
i have waited for a while to see what active managed funds beat sp500 in
long term. too bad no one can share a ticker here. in another thread, i
mentioned, do ur own math, a 1.2% expense ratio can eat 30% of ur
investment in 30 yr period.

mediocrity
prove

【在 w***n 的大作中提到】

: Okay, then at least we have a little common ground. But I don't get where
: relying on hope comes from. Only a small percentage can be successful in
: about anything. Does that statement sound hopeful to you? The glass is 20%
: full rather than 80% empty? LOL I like the spirit.
: If you take all the funds/investors in the universe, then of course the
: majority have mediocre performance if not failure. At least to me, that is
: not a convincing reason that one should just surrender and accept mediocrity
: .
: When someone suggests average investors should just give up and invest in
: index funds, and later active funds from his own company after he left prove

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

183 楼

Why active traders has anything to do with this thread? Investors can
passively hold active funds, or actively trade passive funds, but it has
nothing to do with the topic at hand.
some VFINX statistics
Trailing Returns (06/30/2013) 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 15-
Year
Investor Return % 26.75 17.21 1.72 7.41 3.35
Total Return % 20.42 18.28 6.91 7.18 4.
16
% Rank in Category (Inv Rtn) 47 16 59 30 49
That difficult? Or refuse to looking?

game.

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: hedge fund managers don;t win by their spirit but by more resource, more
: star managers and perhaps more info we don't have access to.
: also be more quantitative about fee/commission/tax when u look into the
: investing universe. for people actively trading in the market, usually
: middlemen and irs win, and investor lose, so it is not exactly a 0 sum game.
: i have waited for a while to see what active managed funds beat sp500 in
: long term. too bad no one can share a ticker here. in another thread, i
: mentioned, do ur own math, a 1.2% expense ratio can eat 30% of ur
: investment in 30 yr period.
:

w*n2009-12-13 08:12

184 楼

Seriously? There are many active funds that beat the crap out of index funds
. Just to name a few to jump start the search process:
T Rowe Price New Horizons
Fidelity Contrafund
Columbia Acorn Z

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: hedge fund managers don;t win by their spirit but by more resource, more
: star managers and perhaps more info we don't have access to.
: also be more quantitative about fee/commission/tax when u look into the
: investing universe. for people actively trading in the market, usually
: middlemen and irs win, and investor lose, so it is not exactly a 0 sum game.
: i have waited for a while to see what active managed funds beat sp500 in
: long term. too bad no one can share a ticker here. in another thread, i
: mentioned, do ur own math, a 1.2% expense ratio can eat 30% of ur
: investment in 30 yr period.
:

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

185 楼

I am not familiar with the funds you mentioned other than FCNTX, mainly
because it is in our 401(k). Will is a great manager, IMHO one of the best
in business, but it irks me a lot that Fido keeps it open at nearly $100B.
Adding other funds Will managed with similar style, the total probably is
above $120B. The only thing I can think of positively is the fees reduced a
little bit to 0.74%. Going forward, he will be hard-pressed to outperform
benchmark, it is just a cash cow for Fido.
Accroding to GMO's Grantham whom I pay close attention to what he has to
say,
Grantham's perspective on asset bloat (2006):
"Fifteen years ago or so I proposed at one of our client conferences a rule
for relating size of assets to value added, or alpha: every time you double
your assets, you lower a positive alpha by 30%, or if you quadruple your
assets, you will halve your alpha if you prefer. Fifteen years later, it
still seems like as well informed a guess as I can come up with."
So my prediction is Will may generate 0.5-1% exepcted excessive return going
forward, and the majority of it will go to the fees. The only positive
thing I can think of, after said all that, is FCNTX appears to be less
volatile than its peers.

funds

【在 w***n 的大作中提到】

: Seriously? There are many active funds that beat the crap out of index funds
: . Just to name a few to jump start the search process:
: T Rowe Price New Horizons
: Fidelity Contrafund
: Columbia Acorn Z

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

186 楼

"just to name a few"? let's face it, the funds u listed here are nothing but
avg among mfs.
even so "beat the crap"? take the arguably most famous fidelity FCNTX as an
example, r u seeing a different chart from the rest of us? i am not seeing
where "beat the crap" comes from? PRNHX had a very good run in 2010. it has
been lagging sp500 for last 2 years.

funds

【在 w***n 的大作中提到】

: Seriously? There are many active funds that beat the crap out of index funds
: . Just to name a few to jump start the search process:
: T Rowe Price New Horizons
: Fidelity Contrafund
: Columbia Acorn Z

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

187 楼

i was just talking to wltsn. no need to inject urself into it.

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: Why active traders has anything to do with this thread? Investors can
: passively hold active funds, or actively trade passive funds, but it has
: nothing to do with the topic at hand.
: some VFINX statistics
: Trailing Returns (06/30/2013) 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 15-
: Year
: Investor Return % 26.75 17.21 1.72 7.41 3.35
: Total Return % 20.42 18.28 6.91 7.18 4.
: 16
: % Rank in Category (Inv Rtn) 47 16 59 30 49

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

188 楼

Now the "long-term" catchword get thrown out of the window?

but
an
has

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: "just to name a few"? let's face it, the funds u listed here are nothing but
: avg among mfs.
: even so "beat the crap"? take the arguably most famous fidelity FCNTX as an
: example, r u seeing a different chart from the rest of us? i am not seeing
: where "beat the crap" comes from? PRNHX had a very good run in 2010. it has
: been lagging sp500 for last 2 years.
:
: funds

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

189 楼

if u cannot take a hint. let me be more blunt. please don't respond to my
discussion, thanks.

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: Now the "long-term" catchword get thrown out of the window?
:
: but
: an
: has

w*n2009-12-13 08:12

190 楼

You're right. When the fund gets larger and larger, it's harder for the
manager to keep out-performing the index. He has to lower his bar so to
speak in order to invest all that money.
Also, even if he has bearish view on AAPL for example, he's just not able to
sell all those shares in a short period.

a

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: I am not familiar with the funds you mentioned other than FCNTX, mainly
: because it is in our 401(k). Will is a great manager, IMHO one of the best
: in business, but it irks me a lot that Fido keeps it open at nearly $100B.
: Adding other funds Will managed with similar style, the total probably is
: above $120B. The only thing I can think of positively is the fees reduced a
: little bit to 0.74%. Going forward, he will be hard-pressed to outperform
: benchmark, it is just a cash cow for Fido.
: Accroding to GMO's Grantham whom I pay close attention to what he has to
: say,
: Grantham's perspective on asset bloat (2006):

w*n2009-12-13 08:12

191 楼

Alternatively, he could do what New Horizon did, which is to close the door
to new investors...

to

【在 w***n 的大作中提到】

: You're right. When the fund gets larger and larger, it's harder for the
: manager to keep out-performing the index. He has to lower his bar so to
: speak in order to invest all that money.
: Also, even if he has bearish view on AAPL for example, he's just not able to
: sell all those shares in a short period.
:
: a

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

192 楼

You are welcome to stop posting at all if you do not want to be talked to,
it is an open forum firstly, and my thread (distant) secondly. Not least the
post is not just for you, but mainly for the lurkers to see.

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: i was just talking to wltsn. no need to inject urself into it.

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

193 楼

of course. then i always have right not to respond to you, just be clear
here.

the

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: You are welcome to stop posting at all if you do not want to be talked to,
: it is an open forum firstly, and my thread (distant) secondly. Not least the
: post is not just for you, but mainly for the lurkers to see.

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

194 楼

The stop post on this forum at all.

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: if u cannot take a hint. let me be more blunt. please don't respond to my
: discussion, thanks.

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

195 楼

I could care less if you respond to me or not, it is your choice.

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: of course. then i always have right not to respond to you, just be clear
: here.
:
: the

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

196 楼

lol.

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: The stop post on this forum at all.

w*n2009-12-13 08:12

197 楼

"avg among mfs"? I'm confused. They rank relatively high among their peers.
If you see them as average, you already know what consistently beat index
funds, then why you sounded like you don't know any that can do just that?
I certainly was looking at the wrong chart. In the last 10 years, FCNTX is
up 102.15% whereas SPY is up 56%. If that doesn't count as "beat the crap",
I don't know what does. I don't know about you, I certainly wouldn't mind
paying a little higher fees for that performance.

but
an
has

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: "just to name a few"? let's face it, the funds u listed here are nothing but
: avg among mfs.
: even so "beat the crap"? take the arguably most famous fidelity FCNTX as an
: example, r u seeing a different chart from the rest of us? i am not seeing
: where "beat the crap" comes from? PRNHX had a very good run in 2010. it has
: been lagging sp500 for last 2 years.
:
: funds

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

198 楼

I am not sure he has all the say regarding closing the fund. But seriously,
there is not many money managers who want to be one of the greatest
investors in history, really want to make money for his shareholders and
relatively oblivious to financial rewards.

door

【在 w***n 的大作中提到】

: Alternatively, he could do what New Horizon did, which is to close the door
: to new investors...
:
: to

k*n2009-12-13 08:12

199 楼

he is going to tell you "past performance does not....."
I have said it is like a religion for some people

.
,

【在 w***n 的大作中提到】

: "avg among mfs"? I'm confused. They rank relatively high among their peers.
: If you see them as average, you already know what consistently beat index
: funds, then why you sounded like you don't know any that can do just that?
: I certainly was looking at the wrong chart. In the last 10 years, FCNTX is
: up 102.15% whereas SPY is up 56%. If that doesn't count as "beat the crap",
: I don't know what does. I don't know about you, I certainly wouldn't mind
: paying a little higher fees for that performance.
:
: but
: an

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

200 楼

The catchword need to be thrown out of the window whenever it fits one's
narrative. It will be brought back later in the right scenario.

.
,

【在 w***n 的大作中提到】

: "avg among mfs"? I'm confused. They rank relatively high among their peers.
: If you see them as average, you already know what consistently beat index
: funds, then why you sounded like you don't know any that can do just that?
: I certainly was looking at the wrong chart. In the last 10 years, FCNTX is
: up 102.15% whereas SPY is up 56%. If that doesn't count as "beat the crap",
: I don't know what does. I don't know about you, I certainly wouldn't mind
: paying a little higher fees for that performance.
:
: but
: an

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

201 楼

"relatively high" is an understatement. FCNTX was 3 out 300+ mfs have beat
sp500 from an article i read. also when you pick a star fund， there are
always at least 3 factors u need to consider.
1. the flow is enemy of a fund future performance.
2. the tenure a star manager of a star fund.
3. the "reversion to the mean" of a fund.
there were many legendary funds in investing history. how many keep
performing year after year? i understand u want to pay extra for high
performance mfs today, i would not put my money betting on them.

.
,

【在 w***n 的大作中提到】

: "avg among mfs"? I'm confused. They rank relatively high among their peers.
: If you see them as average, you already know what consistently beat index
: funds, then why you sounded like you don't know any that can do just that?
: I certainly was looking at the wrong chart. In the last 10 years, FCNTX is
: up 102.15% whereas SPY is up 56%. If that doesn't count as "beat the crap",
: I don't know what does. I don't know about you, I certainly wouldn't mind
: paying a little higher fees for that performance.
:
: but
: an

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

202 楼

of course "past performance does not...". i have listed at least 3 reasons
here.
1. the flow is enemy of a fund future performance.
2. the tenure a star manager of a star fund.
3. the "reversion to the mean" of a fund.
no need for name calling btw.

【在 k***n 的大作中提到】

: he is going to tell you "past performance does not....."
: I have said it is like a religion for some people
:
: .
: ,

w*n2009-12-13 08:12

203 楼

You do have some good points, but it's quite difficult to keep this type of
conversation, when you one moment ago said it's avg among mfs and a while
later say "relatively high is an understatement".
Let's get the fact straight first. They are star funds, not average funds.
They have out-performed the index over a 10 year span, so they are not
simply lucky.
About past performance doesn't blablabla, these a few fund managers, among
other stars, have proven record telling you that they can do much better
than the clue-less. They earned the premium that some of us are willing to
pay. I don't expect that they won't have some bad years, but I don't believe
they would suddenly lost the magic touch forever and become worse than the
clue-less either. There are something consistent in them that you can't
simply dismiss by saying past doesn't mean anything...

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: "relatively high" is an understatement. FCNTX was 3 out 300+ mfs have beat
: sp500 from an article i read. also when you pick a star fund， there are
: always at least 3 factors u need to consider.
: 1. the flow is enemy of a fund future performance.
: 2. the tenure a star manager of a star fund.
: 3. the "reversion to the mean" of a fund.
: there were many legendary funds in investing history. how many keep
: performing year after year? i understand u want to pay extra for high
: performance mfs today, i would not put my money betting on them.
:

w*n2009-12-13 08:12

204 楼

Your market timing is very impressive. I've read some of your posts in the
stock board.
Who says market timing is mission impossible? Only those who can't. LOL

【在 k***n 的大作中提到】

: he is going to tell you "past performance does not....."
: I have said it is like a religion for some people
:
: .
: ,

w*n2009-12-13 08:12

205 楼

I'm actually glad he didn't close the fund. If every successful manager
close their doors, I wouldn't be able to get a piece of the good ones.

,

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: I am not sure he has all the say regarding closing the fund. But seriously,
: there is not many money managers who want to be one of the greatest
: investors in history, really want to make money for his shareholders and
: relatively oblivious to financial rewards.
:
: door

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

206 楼

sorry, i meant to say "anything but avg"... but came out as "nothing but avg
".

of
believe

【在 w***n 的大作中提到】

: You do have some good points, but it's quite difficult to keep this type of
: conversation, when you one moment ago said it's avg among mfs and a while
: later say "relatively high is an understatement".
: Let's get the fact straight first. They are star funds, not average funds.
: They have out-performed the index over a 10 year span, so they are not
: simply lucky.
: About past performance doesn't blablabla, these a few fund managers, among
: other stars, have proven record telling you that they can do much better
: than the clue-less. They earned the premium that some of us are willing to
: pay. I don't expect that they won't have some bad years, but I don't believe

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

207 楼

i didn;t know he was good at timing market. i know i am not. most people
around me r not either.

【在 w***n 的大作中提到】

: Your market timing is very impressive. I've read some of your posts in the
: stock board.
: Who says market timing is mission impossible? Only those who can't. LOL

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

208 楼

I am guilty of reverse performance chasing, in addition to my criteria on
selecting active funds, on the assumption that smart people won't suddenly
become dumb, so I often add to my existing funds when they lags in short
term.

of
believe

【在 w***n 的大作中提到】

: You do have some good points, but it's quite difficult to keep this type of
: conversation, when you one moment ago said it's avg among mfs and a while
: later say "relatively high is an understatement".
: Let's get the fact straight first. They are star funds, not average funds.
: They have out-performed the index over a 10 year span, so they are not
: simply lucky.
: About past performance doesn't blablabla, these a few fund managers, among
: other stars, have proven record telling you that they can do much better
: than the clue-less. They earned the premium that some of us are willing to
: pay. I don't expect that they won't have some bad years, but I don't believe

k*n2009-12-13 08:12

209 楼

sorry if it sounded offensive to you
but I respect all opinions regardless it is religion-like or not
in fact, my own approach has religion roots
and I suggested many times on the board that people who do not want
to spend extra time and energy should stay with index funds to get
an average return.
by definition, index funds get an average return, so I simply can not agree
that they are unbeatable over long term. It may be my religion-like
argument too, lol

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: of course "past performance does not...". i have listed at least 3 reasons
: here.
: 1. the flow is enemy of a fund future performance.
: 2. the tenure a star manager of a star fund.
: 3. the "reversion to the mean" of a fund.
: no need for name calling btw.

k*n2009-12-13 08:12

210 楼

I do hope I can keep this performance, lol
I will calmly accept it if I lose to the index in the end.

【在 w***n 的大作中提到】

: Your market timing is very impressive. I've read some of your posts in the
: stock board.
: Who says market timing is mission impossible? Only those who can't. LOL

S*C2009-12-13 08:12

211 楼

It is one thing at a few billion, but quite another at $100B.
Let's look at Warren Buffet. He closed his partnership to new investment in
1965 at an asset level of $43 million, that's about 320 million today's
dollar, the reason is he thought his performance would be impaired by
further asset bloat.
Use this data and GMO's rule of thumb regarding asset bloat impact on WB's
performance
Asset Size....Expected Alpha
$320M.........22%
$1.3B.........11%
$5.1B.........5.5%
$20B..........2.8%
$80B..........1.4%
Any active equity fund which AUM close to $80B, charge close to 1%, you may
ask yourself if Warren may not be able to pull it off, why the guy can going
forward?

【在 w***n 的大作中提到】

: I'm actually glad he didn't close the fund. If every successful manager
: close their doors, I wouldn't be able to get a piece of the good ones.
:
: ,

s*y2009-12-13 08:12

212 楼

that's ok. i was reading a book 'the ivy portfolio' few weeks ago. the
authors proposed a practical strategy to combine index etfs and market
timing. it beats sp500 handily. i will look into it more before trying it
out with money.

agree

【在 k***n 的大作中提到】

: sorry if it sounded offensive to you
: but I respect all opinions regardless it is religion-like or not
: in fact, my own approach has religion roots
: and I suggested many times on the board that people who do not want
: to spend extra time and energy should stay with index funds to get
: an average return.
: by definition, index funds get an average return, so I simply can not agree
: that they are unbeatable over long term. It may be my religion-like
: argument too, lol

w*n2009-12-13 08:12

213 楼

No one knows for sure whether they really become dumb, but I think you are
doing the right thing. It's a probability game after all. When you are
stacking the odds in your favor, I think you can forget about the results
for a while. Very likely they will "reversion to the mean" as others pointed
out, except that the mean of star funds is different from the mean of
clueless.

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: I am guilty of reverse performance chasing, in addition to my criteria on
: selecting active funds, on the assumption that smart people won't suddenly
: become dumb, so I often add to my existing funds when they lags in short
: term.
:
: of
: believe

w*n2009-12-13 08:12

214 楼

Very interesting. I didn't know this method of estimating asset bloat impact
. Thanks for sharing!

in

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: It is one thing at a few billion, but quite another at $100B.
: Let's look at Warren Buffet. He closed his partnership to new investment in
: 1965 at an asset level of $43 million, that's about 320 million today's
: dollar, the reason is he thought his performance would be impaired by
: further asset bloat.
: Use this data and GMO's rule of thumb regarding asset bloat impact on WB's
: performance
: Asset Size....Expected Alpha
: $320M.........22%
: $1.3B.........11%

w*n2009-12-13 08:12

215 楼

I see. No problem.
It's no surprise that I wasn't able to find an average fund that
consistently beat the average index. I didn't even both to try. That's the
norm. Only the extraordinary funds kick the ass of average ones.

avg

【在 s********y 的大作中提到】

: sorry, i meant to say "anything but avg"... but came out as "nothing but avg
: ".
:
: of
: believe