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Dow雷2500，Dupont雷1500

Dow雷2500，Dupont雷1500# Chemistry - 化学

k*g2012-10-23 07:10

1 楼

泡沫当然是越早破越好，因为越是到后边，泡沫的炒作也就越大，带来的危害程度也就越大。目前看来，国内至少已经认识到了房地产泡沫，这两个月连续四次提出要抑制资产泡沫。而美国现在全都沉浸在特朗普大牛市之中，全然不顾他们的周期市盈率已经仅次于2000年互联网泡沫，而房地产也超过了历史最高水平。
当然，更为关键的是二者的复原力。首先是是两国对待危机的经验。中国08年金融危机后的应对经验，明显是有点用力过猛。不过当衰退发生时，通过财政政策和货币政策来刺激经济，已经是中美两国的共识，这方面，中国的刺激比美国的刺激要来得有效率一些。
美国已经面临了两次危机，1929年的大萧条和2008年的次贷危机，很显然，美国还是积累了不少的经验。但能否发挥出这种优势，要看执政者的水平了。
目前两国债务对比，债务比例相当。差不多总体负债占GDP的比例都是2.5倍左右，不过美国的国债已经超过GDP，而中国的国债比例占GDP只有50%。中国主要是企业的负债，居民方面的负债也比美国要小。这会让美国的政策受到很多掣肘，奥巴马很多改革法案都是因为国债问题给搞黄了。
综合看来，中国未来的复原力要强于美国，但是如果特朗普脑子一热，直接来个美债违约，然后轻装上证的话，就很难说了。好在我们能够见证这两个世纪级的泡沫的对决，还是挺荣幸的，一生也就这么一次机会了，好好把握吧。

t*h2012-10-23 07:10

2 楼

请教各位专家，谢谢。
My American friend has such question: if there is a way for a clinic that is
a nonprofit but is NOT associated with an educational institution to be
exempt from the h1b cap?

x*82012-10-23 07:10

3 楼

启动后只显示需和itune连接，用usb连上我的电脑，运行itune也没用，电脑不能显示
ipod touch connected. 是不是电脑太久，5年前买的？

r*g2012-10-23 07:10

4 楼

看来化工厂也药厂也好不了多少啊。
有内幕的说说研发人员会不会受影响？

N*n2012-10-23 07:10

5 楼

股票增长是对民主党，川普1.5万亿经济刺激的超前反应

：泡沫当然是越早破越好，因为越是到后边，泡沫的炒作也就越大，带来的危害程度也
就越大。目前看来，国内至少已经认识到了房地产泡沫，这两个月连续四次提出要抑制
资产泡沫。而美国现在全都沉浸在特朗普大牛市之中，全然不顾他们的周期市盈率已经
仅次于2000年互联网泡沫，而房地产也超过了历史最高水平。
：

t*h2012-10-23 07:10

6 楼

x*02012-10-23 07:10

7 楼

Updated to latest itune

y*i2012-10-23 07:10

8 楼

数目准确吗？传言早有了，像你这样能给个数倒少。

D*d2012-10-23 07:10

9 楼

关于中美我和你观点非常接近，不同的是，如果真出现全球性的衰退，我认为欧洲和日
本会死在前面，没有同一财政政策的欧元和日本的国债更没法看。我称之为新四大家族
，最佳的结果大家就这么耗着，都继续宽松，稀释债务。

t*h2012-10-23 07:10

10 楼

C*b2012-10-23 07:10

11 楼

听在P&G的朋友说，P&G今年也是北美消减10%-15%，亚洲区增加10%。不知道是真的假的
。工作都转移了，老美以后靠啥挣钱？花街？！

【在 r*******g 的大作中提到】

: 看来化工厂也药厂也好不了多少啊。
: 有内幕的说说研发人员会不会受影响？

c*t2012-10-23 07:10

12 楼

不光看国债，要看加民间债务的总额，还有持有结构和资产项

：关于中美我和你观点非常接近，不同的是，如果真出现全球性的衰退，我认为欧洲和
日本会死在前面，没有同一财政政策的欧元和日本的国债更没法看。我称之为新四大家
族，最佳的结果大家就这么耗着，都继续宽松，稀释债务。

l*g2012-10-23 07:10

13 楼

是因为现在赚钱能力不行了，才被迫转走高薪的北美工作，增加低收入的亚洲区工作，
同时加强本地化，好在亚洲区多赚点钱。公司赢利不变，股价依旧坚挺，但北美的WSN
们惨了

【在 C*******b 的大作中提到】

: 听在P&G的朋友说，P&G今年也是北美消减10%-15%，亚洲区增加10%。不知道是真的假的
: 。工作都转移了，老美以后靠啥挣钱？花街？！

l*72012-10-23 07:10

14 楼

dow ,dupont 的share 跌的一塌糊涂
Dow Chemical Co. (DOW), the largest U.S. chemical maker by sales, will cut
about 2,400 jobs and shut 20 manufacturing plants to reduce annual costs by
$500 million in the face of slow global economic growth.
The facilities to be closed are in the U.S., Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain
, the U.K. and Japan, the Midland, Michigan- based company said in a
statement released after it inadvertently e-mailed a draft copy to Bloomberg
News earlier yesterday. An additional $500 million will be saved by cutting
capital spending and curtailing some investments, Dow said.
The job cuts, which amount to 5 percent of Dow’s global workforce, follow
DuPont Co.’s announcement yesterday that it’s eliminating 1,500 jobs in
part because of declining demand for paint pigment and solar cells. Dow
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Andrew Liveris said in July the company
is operating in the worst conditions since 2009.
“Chemicals are a very economically sensitive industry,” Jake Dollarhide,
CEO of Tulsa, Oklahoma-based Longbow Asset Management, said in a phone
interview. “Economic growth in 2012 has slowed to a trickle, and that has
spooked a lot of people.”
The job cuts announced by the two largest U.S. chemical makers are a
reflection of a global economy still struggling to fully recover from
recession, said Dollarhide, who helps manage $60 million including DuPont
shares. DuPont is the largest U.S. chemical company by market valuation.
Dow fell (DOW) 0.7 percent to $28.35 at 5:14 p.m. in New York, after the
close of regular trading. DuPont fell 9.1 percent to $45.25 yesterday, the
biggest decline since December 2008.
‘Slow Growth’
“The reality is we are operating in a slow-growth environment in the near-
term,” Liveris said in the statement. “While these actions are difficult,
they demonstrate our resolve to tightly manage operations -- particularly in
Europe - - and mitigate the impact of current market dynamics.”
Annual costs savings should be realized by the end of 2014, Dow said. Fourth
-quarter earnings will be reduced by 50 cents to 60 cents a share for
expenses related to asset impairments, write-offs, severance and other costs
, the company said.
The reductions won’t affect plans for new factories on the U.S. Gulf Coast
and in Saudi Arabia, or opportunities in the agriculture and electronics
units, the company said.
The facilities to be shutdown over the next two years include a polyethylene
plastics plant in Belgium, a factory that makes diesel-particulate filters
for autos in Michigan and an epoxy resins plant in Japan.
Spanish Facilities
Also closing are factories in Spain, the U.K. and Ohio, that are part of the
formulated systems unit, which makes polyurethane foams and epoxy products.
A plant in the Netherlands also will close.
Dow plans to write down the assets of Dow Kokam LLC, a joint venture,
because of low demand globally for lithium-ion batteries. It also will
consolidate assets in its oxygenated solvents business and shut a number of
other small facilities.
Dow is scheduled to release third-quarter earnings tomorrow.
To contact the reporter on this story: Jack Kaskey in Houston at [email protected]
bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Steven Frank at [email protected]
bloomberg.net