看到一个小印rajni16比较详细的排期和485批准日期分析, 原帖照抄如下(仅代表作者
ranjni16个人观点, 本人并不支持或者否认其结论, 各位兄弟自己参考就好):
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Posted by rajni16 (9) 5 hours 57 minutes ago
My FY 2012 Predictions (based on the assumption that HR 3012 is not passed):
March 2012 Bulletin: Jul 15 2010 (as per inventory report dated Jan 12 2012,
approx 30,000 applications are in EB2 Inventory. By the time this bulletin
is released, data upto December bulletin will be accurate approx 36,000
applications)
Apr 2012 Bulletin: Oct 1 2010 (by the time this bulletin is released, data
upto January bulletin will be accurate. approx 41K - 42K)
May 2012 Bulletin: Apr 15 2008 (by the time this bulletin is released, data
upto February bulletin will be accurate. more than 42K. so retro is sure.)
June 2012 Bulletin: either Apr 15 2008 or movement upto May 15 2008)
July 2012 Bulletin: July 1st 2008 (as last quarter FY 2012 spill overs will
start; slight movement is expected)
August 2012 Bulletin: August 15 2008 (slight movement due to last quarter FY
2012 spillovers)
September 2012 Bulletin: October 1 2008 (slight movement due to last quarter
FY 2012 spillovers)
at this time, I'm expecting around 25K in the form of spillovers to EB2. If
it is less than 25K, then by the end of FY 2012, dates may settle around Aug
1 2008 - Sep 15 2008
bottom line: Even if hr 3012 is not passed, people with priority dates less
than 2009 will get their GC's by the end of FY 2013
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Posted by rajni16 (9) 2 hours 54 minutes ago
to vgraj1:
This year, so far 6500-7000 cases got approved in EB1 (3.5 mons..due to
holiday season we can assume it is a 3 mon number)
so by end of sep 2012 (assuming same frequency), 28K applications will be
filed in EB1
so 12K spill over
no spill over from EB4
around 4K spill over is expected from EB5
EB2 india/china quota: 5600
around 1500 is filed so far in EB2-ROW category
assuming with HR 3012 updates/news around, frequency of slighlty more than
3K is expected in the next 3 quarters
around 12K out of 34,400
so 22,400 spill over
22400 + 12000 + 4000 + 5600 = 44,000 visa categories (4K for consular
processing) ~ 40K
around 10K spillovers are supposed to be used by now by India and China in
reality
but only 5K-6K were used so far..
so there are still 30K-34K left for this year.
from my previous post, according to Jan 12 2012 inventory report there are
30K pending cases in I485 inventory
data till Nov 2011 bulletin is accurate (I guess) which means priority dates
until Oct 31 2007.
for priority dates Nov 2007 - Mar 15 2008: data is 60% accurate I guess (
2400 more can be assumed for EB2I). As per report, for 2007: 7600 cases are
pending..so 10K for 2007
for priority dates Mar 15 2008 - Jan 1 2009: data is 35% accurate I guess (
8300 more can be assumed). As per report, for 2008: 3700 cases are pending..
so 12K for 2008
around 11K EB2I cases for 2009 (11K is an assumption based on the Jan 12
inventory report)
so 2007 - 2009: there are 33K cases pending just for India
Prior to 2007: around 2200 EB2 cases are pending
2007 - 2012: 12.5K ROW cases (non India/china) are pending
for china: 2007 - 2008 (so far) some 3.5K..another 5K is expected for them
also for ROW: between now and sep 2012: around 8K can be expected
so total EB2 inventory will show up as (around May 2012): 8.5K + 12.5K + 2.
2K + 33K + 8K = 64K can be expected..
as mentioned above, this year 30-34K (lets say 32K) in the form of spill
overs is expected..
that leaves 32K..
according to your analysis some 26K is left as closing inventory (from
previous years) so with the above calculations it is 6K more..so dates for
India might be in Q1 2009 at the end of FY 2012
But according to rumors, the dates might move to June 2010 in the upcoming
bulletin and then retro later, then with 0.7 as PERM to 485 conversion
factor (actually now a days it is much more less than that) but 0.7 is a
good conversion factor in my opinion..
15K more can be expected for India and China..
so 15K + 6K = 21K, EB2I/C dates might end up at Aug-Oct 2008 at the end of
FY 2012..
so that's the reason, I concluded in my earlier post that PD's < 2009, will
get their GC by FY 2013.
