From Q's blog# EB23 - 劳工卡
r*n
1 楼
From Q's blog:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Prediction
Employment-based priority dates will advance again with the March Visa
Bulletin, likely by at least a few months. An advance of six months is
possible, although an advance of one year is not likely. He will know as
this month moves on. With normal USCIS adjustment of status processing times
of four-to-six months, March is the last time for Mr. Oppenheim to get the
AOS cases filed and possibly approved in FY2012. He will then probably hold
the priority date over the summer, and then retrogress or advance it if
needed. Mr. Oppenheim does not have enough data to predict demand and
priority date changes in the last quarter of FY2012.
Visa Office Update on Priority Dates and Demand
Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12012349 (posted Jan. 23, 2012)"
On Thursday, January 19, 2012, Business committee chair Mike Nowlan and
Students & Scholars committee member, Roberta Freedman, discussed the Visa
Bulletin, visa demand in the employment preference categories, and
predictions for FY2012 with Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office. Notes from
that discussion are:
•EB green card usage has been very slow in FY2012, so DOS is advancing
the dates to see how many cases are out there. Mr. Oppenheim is relying on
USCIS and their estimate. USCIS thought more would come in, but 50% their
estimate have actually filed an AOS. This movement is due in large part to
the clearing out of the EB-2 2007 AOS cases. Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that
DOS cannot "see" the I-140 cases that are approved and for which adjustment
of status had been requested prior to September 2010, though he can "see"
cases for which consular processing is requested.
•Mr. Oppenheim could not speculate why usage is slow/low. Economy?
Foreign nationals lost jobs?
•Low usage of EB-1 numbers is assumed again this year. A fall-down of
12,000 additional EB-1 numbers into EB-2 is calculated into Mr. Oppenheim's
projections for 2012, although he thinks EB-1 number availability may be
down by approximately 1,000 as compared to last year, due to heavier EB-5
usage since unused EB-5 numbers "spill up" to EB-1 and then down to EB-2.
•Mr. Oppenheim is very surprised by the severe downturn in EB-1
numbers. We cited the impact of Kazarian on USCIS filings and demand for EB-
1-1 numbers, and the fact that it is difficult for an owner-beneficiary to
obtain approval of EB-1-3 petitions.
•About 34% of the total number of permanent visas have been used this
year, and 45% should be used by end of February.
•Adjustment of status through USCIS accounts for 85% to 90% of all EB
green card cases.
•The impact on number usage of upgrades (EB-3 to EB-2) is still
unknown. Upgrades were the reason the priority dates advanced so slowly in
in the beginning of FY2011. For upgrades, the EB-3 case does not get cleared
out of the system until the EB-2 for the same person is approved.
•Mr. Oppenheim also wonders whether demand is weak for visas for
dependent family members, and so fewer green cards are needed.
•Mr. Oppenheim meets monthly with USCIS and the Ombudsman's office to
review the receipt of cases. There was a recent meeting to discuss December
numbers. There will be another review before he decides what he will do in
March.
Prediction:
•Employment-based priority dates will advance again with the March
Visa Bulletin, likely by at least a few months. An advance of six months is
possible, although an advance of one year is not likely. He will know as
this month moves on. With normal USCIS adjustment of status processing times
of four-to-six months, March is the last time for Mr. Oppenheim to get the
AOS cases filed and possibly approved in FY2012. He will then probably hold
the priority date over the summer, and then retrogress or advance it if
needed. Mr. Oppenheim does not have enough data to predict demand and
priority date changes in the last quarter of FY2012.
•• USCIS is agreeing to the priority date advances, though
significant advances are bit of a gamble for USCIS, because if they get
inundated with adjustment filings, and subsequently there is priority date
retrogression, USCIS will have to process EAD and advance parole extensions
without additional fees. As we all know, retrogression causes chaos.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Prediction
Employment-based priority dates will advance again with the March Visa
Bulletin, likely by at least a few months. An advance of six months is
possible, although an advance of one year is not likely. He will know as
this month moves on. With normal USCIS adjustment of status processing times
of four-to-six months, March is the last time for Mr. Oppenheim to get the
AOS cases filed and possibly approved in FY2012. He will then probably hold
the priority date over the summer, and then retrogress or advance it if
needed. Mr. Oppenheim does not have enough data to predict demand and
priority date changes in the last quarter of FY2012.
Visa Office Update on Priority Dates and Demand
Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12012349 (posted Jan. 23, 2012)"
On Thursday, January 19, 2012, Business committee chair Mike Nowlan and
Students & Scholars committee member, Roberta Freedman, discussed the Visa
Bulletin, visa demand in the employment preference categories, and
predictions for FY2012 with Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office. Notes from
that discussion are:
•EB green card usage has been very slow in FY2012, so DOS is advancing
the dates to see how many cases are out there. Mr. Oppenheim is relying on
USCIS and their estimate. USCIS thought more would come in, but 50% their
estimate have actually filed an AOS. This movement is due in large part to
the clearing out of the EB-2 2007 AOS cases. Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that
DOS cannot "see" the I-140 cases that are approved and for which adjustment
of status had been requested prior to September 2010, though he can "see"
cases for which consular processing is requested.
•Mr. Oppenheim could not speculate why usage is slow/low. Economy?
Foreign nationals lost jobs?
•Low usage of EB-1 numbers is assumed again this year. A fall-down of
12,000 additional EB-1 numbers into EB-2 is calculated into Mr. Oppenheim's
projections for 2012, although he thinks EB-1 number availability may be
down by approximately 1,000 as compared to last year, due to heavier EB-5
usage since unused EB-5 numbers "spill up" to EB-1 and then down to EB-2.
•Mr. Oppenheim is very surprised by the severe downturn in EB-1
numbers. We cited the impact of Kazarian on USCIS filings and demand for EB-
1-1 numbers, and the fact that it is difficult for an owner-beneficiary to
obtain approval of EB-1-3 petitions.
•About 34% of the total number of permanent visas have been used this
year, and 45% should be used by end of February.
•Adjustment of status through USCIS accounts for 85% to 90% of all EB
green card cases.
•The impact on number usage of upgrades (EB-3 to EB-2) is still
unknown. Upgrades were the reason the priority dates advanced so slowly in
in the beginning of FY2011. For upgrades, the EB-3 case does not get cleared
out of the system until the EB-2 for the same person is approved.
•Mr. Oppenheim also wonders whether demand is weak for visas for
dependent family members, and so fewer green cards are needed.
•Mr. Oppenheim meets monthly with USCIS and the Ombudsman's office to
review the receipt of cases. There was a recent meeting to discuss December
numbers. There will be another review before he decides what he will do in
March.
Prediction:
•Employment-based priority dates will advance again with the March
Visa Bulletin, likely by at least a few months. An advance of six months is
possible, although an advance of one year is not likely. He will know as
this month moves on. With normal USCIS adjustment of status processing times
of four-to-six months, March is the last time for Mr. Oppenheim to get the
AOS cases filed and possibly approved in FY2012. He will then probably hold
the priority date over the summer, and then retrogress or advance it if
needed. Mr. Oppenheim does not have enough data to predict demand and
priority date changes in the last quarter of FY2012.
•• USCIS is agreeing to the priority date advances, though
significant advances are bit of a gamble for USCIS, because if they get
inundated with adjustment filings, and subsequently there is priority date
retrogression, USCIS will have to process EAD and advance parole extensions
without additional fees. As we all know, retrogression causes chaos.
