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恐龙也有好处# Fashion - 美丽时尚
W*r
1
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-17/big-ipo-tiny-
Big IPO, Tiny Payout for Many Startup Workers
Jeff Sutton led the corporate IT team at Box for four years, as the online
file-sharing company grew from 50 employees to more than 1,000. He joined
Box from IBM, making about $95,000 a year—forgoing the higher salary
somebody with his decade of experience in systems administration could have
made so he could collect stock options, roughly 21,000 in all.
When Box went public at the beginning of 2015, Sutton’s bet seemed to be
paying off. On their first day on the New York Stock Exchange, the company’
s $14 shares jumped 66 percent, to $23.23. But Sutton, subject to an
employee lockup agreement, had to wait 180 days before he could cash out. By
then, the stock had fallen more than 20 percent from that high; it’s now
trading at about $13, below its initial public offering price. “I thought
the stock was going to keep skyrocketing,” Sutton says. “Obviously it didn
’t work out that great.”
Let’s be clear: Sutton knows it worked out just fine. He made about $350,
000 before taxes on his Box stock, more than enough to buy the world’s
smallest violin. It wasn’t, however, the life-changing windfall he’d hoped
to secure in exchange for four of his prime Silicon Valley years.
“It’s almost like winning the lottery for your company to do an IPO and do
well”
The frustrated expectations of early employees like Sutton have become a
common thread in the latest round of technology IPOs. It used to be “the
get-rich story happened for people who joined in the early days,” says Saar
Gur, general partner at Charles River Ventures. Now they can be among the
few left behind. Many executives, early investors, and even later investors
are able to cash out before the rank and file, or bargain for guarantees
that help ensure a bonanza.
In an era when multibillion-dollar private valuations have almost become the
norm in tech, employee stock options may appear more valuable than ever.
That, however, presumes a business’s public valuation keeps pace with the
often too optimistic internal one. Square, the mobile payment company,
maintained a website with an internal stock ticker before its IPO, showing
the estimated price steadily rising with each new private investment. Yet
when the company went public in November, it priced its shares at $9, well
below the expected range. One former employee says the internal ticker sat
at $16 when she got her options last year, and her boss told her to expect a
post-IPO jump to $50. As of Dec. 16, Square was trading at about $12.
Whatever happens with an IPO, executives tend to hang on to enough equity to
guarantee huge payouts when they sell their shares. Most early investors
get a chance to sell options on secondary markets before a company’s IPO.
Later investors increasingly demand preferential treatment, including
agreements that if an IPO underperforms the terms of their investment, they
’ll be made whole with an equivalent amount of additional shares. Late-
stage investors in both Box and Square had such so-called ratchet agreements
in place, further devaluing locked-up employee equity. When those kinds of
deals are in place, employees often find their payouts disappointing because
they’re so diluted, says Clara Sieg, a partner at Revolution Ventures. Box
and Square declined to comment for this story.
Ordinary employees are typically without meaningful financial protections or
even a clear sense of what their equity stakes mean, says Chris Zaharis,
who’s worked at startups for about 20 years and as a volunteer teaches
people about their equity rights. Options grants often don’t come with
information on strike prices (discounts on shares), preferential treatment,
or even the total number of shares outstanding. “People on average
overestimate what they are going to make by about 10X,” he says.
One employee at Jawbone, a maker of fitness-tracking wristbands, says he’s
no longer sure of the value of his options given the company’s recent round
of layoffs and debt financing. It looks less likely Jawbone will be able to
go public at or close to its $3.3 billion private valuation, he says, and
it may opt to stay out of public markets entirely, rendering the options
worthless. Jawbone declined to comment.
The current crop of overly optimistic workers reminds Brian O’Malley of his
younger self. O’Malley, a partner at venture fund Accel Partners, was
fresh out of college at software startup Bowstreet when the dot-com bubble
burst, taking with it the options the company told him would be worth six
figures at IPO. Like many of today’s employees, he says, he was too busy
counting his money to consider the risks. “Certain founders think it’s
their job to paint a rosy picture for employees,” he says. Luckily he found
a mentor who helped him shift to venture capital when Bowstreet crumbled.
He says he’s found it better to be as clear as possible with people about
their potential earnings to avoid dashed hopes later.
Again, none of this means startup workers are poor, even without accounting
for the catered meals, free laundry, lavish parties, and other perks in
their playground offices. Average engineers at early-stage startups make $
127,000 a year, estimates recruiter Riviera Partners. “It’s a pretty great
deal, if you ask me,” says Garrett Remes, an early employee at Zynga.
Remes, now a freelance graphic designer, in 2008 walked away from Zynga—and
options that eventually would’ve been worth $2 million—to co-found mobile
game maker Storm8. Less than a year later, after disagreements with his co-
founders, he left that company, too. Nonetheless, he says, the startup
lifestyle “was better than I was used to, living in the Midwest.”
Sutton hasn’t given up on the startup world, either. Since Box, he’s
managed IT for video advertising company BrightRoll, later bought by Yahoo!,
and is now a manager at Instacart, the food delivery startup. But he’s a
little more jaded. “It’s almost like winning the lottery for your company
to do an IPO and do well,” he says. “It’s definitely not something that
happens to everybody.”
The bottom line: When companies fail to meet expectations as they go public,
options-holding employees bear much of the brunt.
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p*2
2
一个星期了没任何通知啊
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C*D
3
万圣节就免化妆了,出门直接就能吓人
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d*e
4
其实startup return期望值远低于public company
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i*y
5
TSC大概两周,NSC还要长些

【在 p********2 的大作中提到】
: 一个星期了没任何通知啊
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g*y
6
bso!!!

【在 C**D 的大作中提到】
: 万圣节就免化妆了,出门直接就能吓人
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f*t
7
是啊,这世上一夜暴富终归只是神话,在稳定大公司细水长流其实是很不错的选择。尤
其在startup滥发超高包裹(当然能兑现多少就不知道了)的市场环境下,大公司给的
待遇也水涨船高。如今加息正式开始,趁码工市场还没萎缩赶紧找个稳定大公司是王道。

【在 d**********e 的大作中提到】
: 其实startup return期望值远低于public company
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p*2
8
啊,这么长时间。 NSC, 完了,年前ead/ap, 指纹都别想了
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C*D
9
哈哈,这个妹妹有幽默感

【在 g*****y 的大作中提到】
: bso!!!
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w*z
10
期望值一定是start up 高,只不过现实中99.9%的startup 失败。box的结局已经是不
错的了。

【在 d**********e 的大作中提到】
: 其实startup return期望值远低于public company
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l*j
11
I had waited exactly 9 days...NSC

【在 p********2 的大作中提到】
: 啊,这么长时间。 NSC, 完了,年前ead/ap, 指纹都别想了
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l*a
12
如果99.9%的都失败了,期望值依然是startup高,那么成功的那0.1%该翻多少倍啊。。

【在 w**z 的大作中提到】
: 期望值一定是start up 高,只不过现实中99.9%的startup 失败。box的结局已经是不
: 错的了。

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d*o
13
一个礼拜左右
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n*e
14
没学过数学的人就是无法交流
你说的是希望值或者意淫值,不是数学意义的期望值

【在 w**z 的大作中提到】
: 期望值一定是start up 高,只不过现实中99.9%的startup 失败。box的结局已经是不
: 错的了。

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h*o
15
运气很好阿
我等了3个多礼拜
不过我什么都慢
140等了7个月差1天, 485 receipt等了3个礼拜, FP notice等了5个礼拜, 打完指纹
已经是6个多礼拜的之后了
现在律师让我耐心等待,lol
bless

【在 l*******j 的大作中提到】
: I had waited exactly 9 days...NSC
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n*e
16
嗯,浆糊脑袋很多,跟他们解释期望值就是对牛弹琴

【在 l******a 的大作中提到】
: 如果99.9%的都失败了,期望值依然是startup高,那么成功的那0.1%该翻多少倍啊。。
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d*y
17
more than three weeks tsc

【在 p********2 的大作中提到】
: 一个星期了没任何通知啊
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w*z
18
靠,哥概率课差点挂了倒是真的。

【在 n****e 的大作中提到】
: 嗯,浆糊脑袋很多,跟他们解释期望值就是对牛弹琴
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l*z
19
混淆概念了不是,他说的是人的主观期望,不是数学统计的期望值

【在 n****e 的大作中提到】
: 嗯,浆糊脑袋很多,跟他们解释期望值就是对牛弹琴
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w*z
20
还是你懂我。

【在 l*****z 的大作中提到】
: 混淆概念了不是,他说的是人的主观期望,不是数学统计的期望值
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W*r
21
不会99.9%的,有一些成功的,我觉得估计5%成功的吧

【在 w**z 的大作中提到】
: 期望值一定是start up 高,只不过现实中99.9%的startup 失败。box的结局已经是不
: 错的了。

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w*z
22
99.9失败有些夸张了,但上市,还能赚的比flag多的,应该不到1%.

【在 W**********r 的大作中提到】
: 不会99.9%的,有一些成功的,我觉得估计5%成功的吧
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W*r
23
对,不如在IBM之类老老实实地呆着 :)

【在 w**z 的大作中提到】
: 99.9失败有些夸张了,但上市,还能赚的比flag多的,应该不到1%.
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W*r
24
"When the shakeout happens and the valuations come back down to earth, you’
re going to see an acceleration in the movement of startup employees to
bigger, more established companies because they realize they can’t handle
the risk"
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g*g
25
FLG's bar is much higher than average startups, so it's not a fair
comparison. I'd say top 3 hot startups' return is probably comparable to FLG
, if not higher. And top 1 hot startups' return is higher than FLG in
average, not saying there won't be flop.
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