How likely is it?# Investment - 投资
K*D
1 楼
that inflation comes before housing market bottoms, i.e., house prices
are still low, while everything else start to raise prices?
are still low, while everything else start to raise prices?
u*n
2 楼
50% chance.
The playout could be: economy start recover, say two years from now, CPI
start to pickup with commodity owing to excessive liquidity pumped recently,
then long-term bond start crash (obvious inflation always crash bonds),
yield of bond rise (worse, skyrocket), morgate rate rising push housing
price further down. I do not believe house market will recover in any shape
before economy get way pass recover. People are always back-wards looking:
after many rounds of layoff, people will be
The playout could be: economy start recover, say two years from now, CPI
start to pickup with commodity owing to excessive liquidity pumped recently,
then long-term bond start crash (obvious inflation always crash bonds),
yield of bond rise (worse, skyrocket), morgate rate rising push housing
price further down. I do not believe house market will recover in any shape
before economy get way pass recover. People are always back-wards looking:
after many rounds of layoff, people will be
o*c
3 楼
I would say Inflation will have nothing to do with the next housing market
bottoms.
inflation is determined by money supply and money velocity in a simple way.
OB and Fed is/will print lots of T$ in next several years, but that doesn't
offset the shrinking real money supply from M3(credit) and M4(other
derivative). We couldn't see speed up of money velocity from banks and
taxpayers in short time.
I guess we might not see any inflation any time soon even when the housing
market bottoms.
just my 2
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: that inflation comes before housing market bottoms, i.e., house prices
: are still low, while everything else start to raise prices?
bottoms.
inflation is determined by money supply and money velocity in a simple way.
OB and Fed is/will print lots of T$ in next several years, but that doesn't
offset the shrinking real money supply from M3(credit) and M4(other
derivative). We couldn't see speed up of money velocity from banks and
taxpayers in short time.
I guess we might not see any inflation any time soon even when the housing
market bottoms.
just my 2
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: that inflation comes before housing market bottoms, i.e., house prices
: are still low, while everything else start to raise prices?
k*t
4 楼
not likely. if everything (lumber, metal, labor, energy...) goes up, housing
will go up, probably except some area supply is way more than demand (
population loss, too much speculation). my housing insurance still goes up
every year when the agent calculates the cost of replacement, although
housing is flat for 08
will go up, probably except some area supply is way more than demand (
population loss, too much speculation). my housing insurance still goes up
every year when the agent calculates the cost of replacement, although
housing is flat for 08
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