b*c
2 楼
人家连数字都不说……谁会知道多少chance...之前大家还估计不会超过10万呢，现在
看来没办法估计啊
看来没办法估计啊
g*u
3 楼
Take the numbers in 2008 as prior:
Reg: 131800, Adv 31200;
Given this year's total petition number is 124000, Adv # is 23735
This year's Adv chance should be
( Adv # - 20000)*(65000/(124000-20000)) + 20000)/ Adv #
which is about 94.1%.
Correct me if I am wrong.
Reg: 131800, Adv 31200;
Given this year's total petition number is 124000, Adv # is 23735
This year's Adv chance should be
( Adv # - 20000)*(65000/(124000-20000)) + 20000)/ Adv #
which is about 94.1%.
Correct me if I am wrong.
r*s
4 楼
p = 1-(1-20000/x)*(1-65000/104000)
x是adv的总数
x是adv的总数
m*u
5 楼
时代不同了，那时候没有那么多的自费master
【在 g******u 的大作中提到】
: Take the numbers in 2008 as prior:
: Reg: 131800, Adv 31200;
: Given this year's total petition number is 124000, Adv # is 23735
: This year's Adv chance should be
: ( Adv # - 20000)*(65000/(124000-20000)) + 20000)/ Adv #
: which is about 94.1%.
: Correct me if I am wrong.
【在 g******u 的大作中提到】
: Take the numbers in 2008 as prior:
: Reg: 131800, Adv 31200;
: Given this year's total petition number is 124000, Adv # is 23735
: This year's Adv chance should be
: ( Adv # - 20000)*(65000/(124000-20000)) + 20000)/ Adv #
: which is about 94.1%.
: Correct me if I am wrong.
k*e
6 楼
probability不错，发offer一枚，签证需要到火星面签
【在 g******u 的大作中提到】
: Take the numbers in 2008 as prior:
: Reg: 131800, Adv 31200;
: Given this year's total petition number is 124000, Adv # is 23735
: This year's Adv chance should be
: ( Adv # - 20000)*(65000/(124000-20000)) + 20000)/ Adv #
: which is about 94.1%.
: Correct me if I am wrong.
【在 g******u 的大作中提到】
: Take the numbers in 2008 as prior:
: Reg: 131800, Adv 31200;
: Given this year's total petition number is 124000, Adv # is 23735
: This year's Adv chance should be
: ( Adv # - 20000)*(65000/(124000-20000)) + 20000)/ Adv #
: which is about 94.1%.
: Correct me if I am wrong.
l*c
7 楼
advanced应该至少有80％的概率，假设和总体的比例差不多为1比2的话。
g*u
8 楼
Right, the two methods come to the same result: 94.1%, assuming the same
percentage of Adv as in 2008.
【在 r*****s 的大作中提到】
: p = 1-(1-20000/x)*(1-65000/104000)
: x是adv的总数
percentage of Adv as in 2008.
【在 r*****s 的大作中提到】
: p = 1-(1-20000/x)*(1-65000/104000)
: x是adv的总数
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