Today, 05:13 PM
gcwait2007
Given below is the present position:
Comparison of cumulative demand data for EB2 India, since Oct 2010:
Source: EB2-I USCIS Data - Immigration Wiki
Month Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11
CY-2006 13125 13150 13125 13150 13175
CY-2007 22850 22850 22825 22900 22975
CY-2010 22925 23000 22925 23000 23025
The above data can be interpreted that EB3I to EB2I porting happens and that
demand matches or almost over takes the supply/ availability of visas.
The published Visa Bulletin Priority Dates since are given below:
Month EB2-CH EB2-IN
02/01/2011 07/01/2006 05/08/2006
01/01/2011 06/22/2006 05/08/2006
12/01/2010 06/08/2006 05/08/2006
11/01/2010 06/01/2006 05/08/2006
10/01/2010 05/22/2006 05/08/2006
Source: Past Visa Bulletin Data - Immigration Wiki
I-485 Inventory data is given below:
Month India China Cumulative Total
May-06 1110 0 1110
Jun-06 1696 0 2806
Jul-06 1505 620 4931
Aug-06 1677 693 7301
Sep-06 1745 773 9819
Oct-06 1747 732 12298
Nov-06 1737 667 14702
Dec-06 1881 770 17353
Jan-07 1540 654 19547
Feb-07 1444 615 21606
16082 5524
Without spillover visas, the current visa allocation per month for EB2 India
and EB2 China are as follows:
Annual Quota for EB2 India: 2987
Divided by 12, we get monthly quota: 2987/ 12 = 249 visas.
The porting from EB3I to EB2I is in the range of 270 to 275 visas each month
, in the last few months.
EB2 India will get 1000 visas in next 4 months (from March 2011 to June 2011
), however my assumption is that these 1000 visas will go for EB3India to
EB2India porting. The cut-off date for EB2 India as of June 2011 will be 8-
May-2006.
EB2 China will clear 1000 visas in next 4 months (from March 2011 to June
2011) and they will reach cut- off date of 15-Aug-2006 in June 2011.
The spillover season starts in July 2011.
Calculation of availability of spillover visas:
EB4 Religious workers will consume all the allocated visas.
EB5 have been providing about 8K to 9K visas as spillover year after year.
EB4 and 5 spillovers will go to EB1.
EB1 India, China and Philippines consume more than their allocated quota
year after year. Last year there was some marginal spillover, otherwise
there were no spillovers from EB1 to EB2 in the previous years.
From the other websites, there are indications that EB1 is somewhat
moderately down. It may be possible that the filers may not use the websites
to keep track of the data. EB1 spillover to EB2 will be about 4K.
Porting from EB3 ROW to EB2ROW is also happening. EB2 ROW to EB2 India and
China spillover is expected to be 10K to 12K.
The availability spillover visas: 8K+4K+10K = 22K
USCIS will try to split the spillover over 3 months, each month allocating
8K visas.
For July 2011 Visa Bulletin, EB2 India and China will be 22-Sep-2006 (about
8K visas)
For August 2011 Visa Bulletin, EB2 India and China will be 22-Dec-2006 (
about 8K visas).
For Sept 2011 Visa Bulletin, EB2 India and China will be either end of Feb
2007 (about 4.5K visas) or end of March 2007 (about 6.5K visas).