关于cellulose insulation，再说说"interest groups". (转载) - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

国际科技财经博客移民网络热点娱乐民生时事公众号

Redian新闻

>未名空间

>Living

关于cellulose insulation，再说说"interest groups". (转载)

关于cellulose insulation，再说说"interest groups". (转载)# Living

a*h2010-10-27 07:10

1 楼

什么牌子的比较好呢?
还想请教面包也是需要发酵粉的吧?
做这些东西用面包机发面的话是1，2个小时就可以发好吧
如果有很容易成功的recipe就太好了，因为网上看到的很多，但是不知道哪个很简单易行
非常感谢

j*22010-10-27 07:10

2 楼

如果频繁的用chase quickpay给别人send money，比如每天都转1000多块，这样会不会
引起chase的风险控制部门的review？搞太多了是不是也会被关账户？
还是这本来就是我自己的钱，chse并不care？

j*b2010-10-27 07:10

3 楼

【以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区】
发信人: jszhb (金嗓子喉宝), 信区: Stock
标题: 关于cellulose insulation，再说说"interest groups".
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Oct 27 23:32:59 2010, 美东)
最近在考虑加insulation的问题。在cellulose和fiberglass之间犹豫不决。于是上网
做了些research。有以下发现：
首先，cellulose有很多由于fiberglass的地方。便宜，不透气，驱虫，驱老鼠。等等
。但是我在一个论坛上发现许多post说cellulose有火灾危险。一些说的很耸人听闻。
多年形成的敏感性立刻让我感觉这里有interest group。于是上wiki看了一下，发现一
下段落：
"The fiberglass industry meanwhile benefited from most of the regulations
passed by the federal government. The heavy lobbying by the more centralized
fiberglass and mineral insulation manufacturers helped pass the tough fire
standards for cellulose insulation. These standards were reinforced by
technical bulletins published by the Mineral Insulation Manufacturers
Association (currently known as the North American Insulation Manufacturers
Association) that promoted fire hazard claims against cellulose insulation.
These claims were not independently verified, faced little scientific review
, and were misleading and untrue"
其实美国各个领域都充斥这种interest group。比如global warming。somehow，极多
美国人都相信不是利益相关的大石油公司收买了一些mouth piece，而是相信全世界的
科学家都被不知道什么人收买。再有就是以前一个帖子里面关于石棉的，以及我提到的
关于granite counter top的。石棉对肺的（独特的）伤害是已经确证了的。但是有些
id却认为石棉和其它粉尘差不多。这些明显是受了interest group的宣传的影响。

e*72010-10-27 07:10

4 楼

易行
超市，Walmart, Costco 等都有。牌子不那么重要，大瓶便宜，小带的贵(每克)。
什么面包馒头都是这个，1磅面粉用10克左右，2tsb，不用那么准。面团别太硬。夏天1
-2小时，冬天2-3小时。
馒头用中筋粉(All purpose)，面包用高筋粉(bread flour, high gluten flour ), 这
个比较重要。一般要二次发酵。
祝成功！

【在 a****h 的大作中提到】

: 什么牌子的比较好呢?
: 还想请教面包也是需要发酵粉的吧?
: 做这些东西用面包机发面的话是1，2个小时就可以发好吧
: 如果有很容易成功的recipe就太好了，因为网上看到的很多，但是不知道哪个很简单易行
: 非常感谢

j*22010-10-27 07:10

5 楼

有人知道吗？

【在 j********2 的大作中提到】

: 如果频繁的用chase quickpay给别人send money，比如每天都转1000多块，这样会不会
: 引起chase的风险控制部门的review？搞太多了是不是也会被关账户？
: 还是这本来就是我自己的钱，chse并不care？

j*b2010-10-27 07:10

6 楼

By the way, be careful with fiberglass insulation. I'm still feeling itchy in my throat after like a week. That stuff isn't much safer. Actually, I think cellulose is way better than fiberglass. I wish I had it in my house, but it isn't.
When look at stats, don't just be assured by the low fatality rate. You can be very miserable and ... alive.

r*r2010-10-27 07:10

7 楼

一般有两种，instant dry和active dry. Instant的可以直接放入面粉快速发酵，
active的要兑温水等十分钟左右，再放入面里揉匀。

天1

【在 e****7 的大作中提到】

:
: 易行
: 超市，Walmart, Costco 等都有。牌子不那么重要，大瓶便宜，小带的贵(每克)。
: 什么面包馒头都是这个，1磅面粉用10克左右，2tsb，不用那么准。面团别太硬。夏天1
: -2小时，冬天2-3小时。
: 馒头用中筋粉(All purpose)，面包用高筋粉(bread flour, high gluten flour ), 这
: 个比较重要。一般要二次发酵。
: 祝成功！

i*d2010-10-27 07:10

8 楼

不会. 因为Quickpay有limit的. 2k/day, 8k/week, 16k/month. 不是你想转多少就能
多少的, 所以risk是可控的

f*r2010-10-27 07:10

9 楼

那是你小看了fiberglass，没把装备弄好

r*r2010-10-27 07:10

10 楼

Costco卖的是active dry的，很大一包，只要几块钱，算下来比买单个小包便宜7，8倍。

【在 r****r 的大作中提到】

: 一般有两种，instant dry和active dry. Instant的可以直接放入面粉快速发酵，
: active的要兑温水等十分钟左右，再放入面里揉匀。
:
: 天1

j*22010-10-27 07:10

11 楼

是这样啊。
我还和怎不知道有16k/month的limit。

【在 i****d 的大作中提到】

: 不会. 因为Quickpay有limit的. 2k/day, 8k/week, 16k/month. 不是你想转多少就能
: 多少的, 所以risk是可控的

j*b2010-10-27 07:10

12 楼

The fact that fiberglass isn't as emphasized as a health hazard as Shi2
Mian2 (I can never spell that word) is partially because the heavy lobbying
of the fiberglass industry. It used to be consider as causing lung cancer, but
then removed from the list.
If I build a new house in the future, I will see to it that only cellulose insulation is used. It performs better because it prevents air leak. Fiberglass is very poor insulator since it allows air to flow through it rather easily. It's said that in the coldest condition, Blown in fiberglass loses half of it's R-value due to air convection. Cellulose have none of this problem. It will actually seal the house to some degree.

【在 f********r 的大作中提到】

: 那是你小看了fiberglass，没把装备弄好

l*z2010-10-27 07:10

13 楼

刚在BJ's买了，4。59一大包，里面两个1磅的独立包装。保守估计也得用上一年多，我
常常每周都做面食的。。。。

h*92010-10-27 07:10

14 楼

那这个会不会像paypal，有多少笔交易的限制阿，会不会被上报irs

f*i2010-10-27 07:10

15 楼

美国到处都是interest group，连libreal环保主义者也是，自己留个心眼就是了
你是不是对万恶的美帝国主义幻想太多了？

lobbying
but

【在 j***b 的大作中提到】

: The fact that fiberglass isn't as emphasized as a health hazard as Shi2
: Mian2 (I can never spell that word) is partially because the heavy lobbying
: of the fiberglass industry. It used to be consider as causing lung cancer, but
: then removed from the list.
: If I build a new house in the future, I will see to it that only cellulose insulation is used. It performs better because it prevents air leak. Fiberglass is very poor insulator since it allows air to flow through it rather easily. It's said that in the coldest condition, Blown in fiberglass loses half of it's R-value due to air convection. Cellulose have none of this problem. It will actually seal the house to some degree.

l*z2010-10-27 07:10

16 楼

http://maomaomom.com/%E8%A5%BF%E5%BC%8F%E7%82%B9%E5%BF%83%E5%88

j*22010-10-27 07:10

17 楼

我就是担心这个呢。
会不会啊。

【在 h*********9 的大作中提到】

: 那这个会不会像paypal，有多少笔交易的限制阿，会不会被上报irs

j*b2010-10-27 07:10

18 楼

Of course not. It's just that last night I discovered this particular case
about fiberglass insulation. I can see lots of people here know even less
about the danger of fiberglass than I did (before I made this discovery).

【在 f****i 的大作中提到】

: 美国到处都是interest group，连libreal环保主义者也是，自己留个心眼就是了
: 你是不是对万恶的美帝国主义幻想太多了？
:
: lobbying
: but

d*a2010-10-27 07:10

19 楼

用n年用不完。。。

倍。

【在 r****r 的大作中提到】

: Costco卖的是active dry的，很大一包，只要几块钱，算下来比买单个小包便宜7，8倍。

j*22010-10-27 07:10

20 楼

谁知道会不会啊？给别人转钱转多了，会不会被调查啊。

【在 j********2 的大作中提到】

: 我就是担心这个呢。
: 会不会啊。

f*i2010-10-27 07:10

21 楼

你再挖挖，就会发现每个东西后面都有一堆故事

【在 j***b 的大作中提到】

: Of course not. It's just that last night I discovered this particular case
: about fiberglass insulation. I can see lots of people here know even less
: about the danger of fiberglass than I did (before I made this discovery).

j*b2010-10-27 07:10

22 楼

Don't pretend like you know all those stories. Apparently you don't judging from the previous discussions. What you said is basically meaningless. It's not that I'm naive that I don't know there are interest groups pushing certain ideas. Apparently I knew this. It's all about the specific case of fiberglass. Knowing that there are such interest groups is different from knowing every single thing that pushed by every single interest group.
People need to learn to be specific about things. Don't make unjustified generalizations, like thinking fearing Lu Chong is the same thing as fearing Shi2 Mian2.

【在 f****i 的大作中提到】

: 你再挖挖，就会发现每个东西后面都有一堆故事

f*i2010-10-27 07:10

23 楼

火气蛮大

judging from the previous discussions. What you said is basically
meaningless. It's not that I'm naive that I don't know there are interest
groups pushing certain ideas. Apparently I knew this. It's all about the
specific case of fiberglass. Knowing that there are such interest groups is
different from knowing every single thing that pushed by every single
interest group.
generalizations, like thinking fearing Lu Chong is the same thing as fearing
Shi2 Mian2.

【在 j***b 的大作中提到】

: Don't pretend like you know all those stories. Apparently you don't judging from the previous discussions. What you said is basically meaningless. It's not that I'm naive that I don't know there are interest groups pushing certain ideas. Apparently I knew this. It's all about the specific case of fiberglass. Knowing that there are such interest groups is different from knowing every single thing that pushed by every single interest group.
: People need to learn to be specific about things. Don't make unjustified generalizations, like thinking fearing Lu Chong is the same thing as fearing Shi2 Mian2.

j*b2010-10-27 07:10

24 楼

Why can't take some frankness?

is
fearing

【在 f****i 的大作中提到】

: 火气蛮大
:
: judging from the previous discussions. What you said is basically
: meaningless. It's not that I'm naive that I don't know there are interest
: groups pushing certain ideas. Apparently I knew this. It's all about the
: specific case of fiberglass. Knowing that there are such interest groups is
: different from knowing every single thing that pushed by every single
: interest group.
: generalizations, like thinking fearing Lu Chong is the same thing as fearing
: Shi2 Mian2.

f*i2010-10-27 07:10

25 楼

我哪里说错了？

【在 j***b 的大作中提到】

: Why can't take some frankness?
:
: is
: fearing

j*b2010-10-27 07:10

26 楼

What do you mean by 火气蛮大? I didn't attack you or anything.

【在 f****i 的大作中提到】

: 我哪里说错了？

f*i2010-10-27 07:10

27 楼

Never mind.

【在 j***b 的大作中提到】

: What do you mean by 火气蛮大? I didn't attack you or anything.

s*i2010-10-27 07:10

28 楼

wiki说的就一定正确？你还有别的论据没？

【在 j***b 的大作中提到】

: 【以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区】
: 发信人: jszhb (金嗓子喉宝), 信区: Stock
: 标题: 关于cellulose insulation，再说说"interest groups".
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Oct 27 23:32:59 2010, 美东)
: 最近在考虑加insulation的问题。在cellulose和fiberglass之间犹豫不决。于是上网
: 做了些research。有以下发现：
: 首先，cellulose有很多由于fiberglass的地方。便宜，不透气，驱虫，驱老鼠。等等
: 。但是我在一个论坛上发现许多post说cellulose有火灾危险。一些说的很耸人听闻。
: 多年形成的敏感性立刻让我感觉这里有interest group。于是上wiki看了一下，发现一
: 下段落：

j*b2010-10-27 07:10

29 楼

I also judge from the way an argument is made.
For example, those argue against cellulose say that it can't be guaranteed that every single bag of the insulation is well treated with chemical so that it won't burn. This is typical fear tactic. This argument can be used in anything. So anything is unsafe if this argument is valid.
I also love the way wiki is always discredited left and right. Like it's just a useless website.

【在 s*i 的大作中提到】

: wiki说的就一定正确？你还有别的论据没？

s*i2010-10-27 07:10

30 楼

你的结论就建立在你对几个论坛帖子的分析上？肯定有关于这两个产品易燃性的比较
研究吧，还是说你觉这些研究都不公正？

that every single bag of the insulation is well treated with chemical so
that it won't burn. This is typical fear tactic. This argument can be used
in anything. So anything is
just a useless website.

【在 j***b 的大作中提到】

: I also judge from the way an argument is made.
: For example, those argue against cellulose say that it can't be guaranteed that every single bag of the insulation is well treated with chemical so that it won't burn. This is typical fear tactic. This argument can be used in anything. So anything is unsafe if this argument is valid.
: I also love the way wiki is always discredited left and right. Like it's just a useless website.

j*b2010-10-27 07:10

31 楼

There is no research or scientific evidence that shows cellulose is flammable. There are only anecdotal evidence "I know someone..." and so on. Or even worse, simply fear mongering arguments that's not even backed by anecdotal evidence.

【在 s*i 的大作中提到】

: 你的结论就建立在你对几个论坛帖子的分析上？肯定有关于这两个产品易燃性的比较
: 研究吧，还是说你觉这些研究都不公正？
:
: that every single bag of the insulation is well treated with chemical so
: that it won't burn. This is typical fear tactic. This argument can be used
: in anything. So anything is
: just a useless website.

j*b2010-10-27 07:10

32 楼

Actually, if you compare cellulose against fiberglass, the fact is that
fiberglass insulation has no reason to be still in the market. Cellulose
simply does everything better than fiberglass.

s*i2010-10-27 07:10

33 楼

我铺过fiber glass，cellulose必须要那个机器喷出来吧，方便这一点上，还是fiber
glass好一点。

【在 j***b 的大作中提到】

: Actually, if you compare cellulose against fiberglass, the fact is that
: fiberglass insulation has no reason to be still in the market. Cellulose
: simply does everything better than fiberglass.

b*a2010-10-27 07:10

34 楼

你怎么知道你看的这篇文章不是利益集团雇枪手写的？

centralized
fire
Manufacturers
.
review

【在 j***b 的大作中提到】

f*i2010-10-27 07:10

35 楼

易发霉

【在 j***b 的大作中提到】

: Actually, if you compare cellulose against fiberglass, the fact is that
: fiberglass insulation has no reason to be still in the market. Cellulose
: simply does everything better than fiberglass.

f*i2010-10-27 07:10

36 楼

LZ可以敏感得觉察出那篇文章不是利益集团雇枪手写的

【在 b*a 的大作中提到】

: 你怎么知道你看的这篇文章不是利益集团雇枪手写的？
:
: centralized
: fire
: Manufacturers
: .
: review

j*b2010-10-27 07:10

37 楼

Believe me, fiberglass insulation will be phase out in the matter of a
decade or so. There's no reason not to. Cellulose is a better insulator, it
also provides air sealing ability. If you insulate with cellulose, you don't
need vapor barrier, again saves money. It's estimated that using cellulose
will make your energy bill about 20% less than if you use fiberglass. It's
cheaper than fiber glass, and it's green.
The only reason fiberglass is still in use is because first, the lobbying of
the fiberglass industry, second, the inertia of construction industry.

fiber

【在 s*i 的大作中提到】

: 我铺过fiber glass，cellulose必须要那个机器喷出来吧，方便这一点上，还是fiber
: glass好一点。

j*b2010-10-27 07:10

38 楼

That's one of the lies being spread by the fiberglass industry.
http://www.cellulose.org/BuildersContractors/DispellingMyths.php

【在 f****i 的大作中提到】

: 易发霉

f*i2010-10-27 07:10

39 楼

我家阁楼上两个都有，cellulose明显味道大

【在 j***b 的大作中提到】

: That's one of the lies being spread by the fiberglass industry.
: http://www.cellulose.org/BuildersContractors/DispellingMyths.php

f*i2010-10-27 07:10

40 楼

你给的链接也太利益集团了

【在 j***b 的大作中提到】

: That's one of the lies being spread by the fiberglass industry.
: http://www.cellulose.org/BuildersContractors/DispellingMyths.php

s*i2010-10-27 07:10

41 楼

这话说的，你这些claim难道不是cellulose的lobby集团搞出来的？

it
't
cellulose
of

【在 j***b 的大作中提到】

: Believe me, fiberglass insulation will be phase out in the matter of a
: decade or so. There's no reason not to. Cellulose is a better insulator, it
: also provides air sealing ability. If you insulate with cellulose, you don't
: need vapor barrier, again saves money. It's estimated that using cellulose
: will make your energy bill about 20% less than if you use fiberglass. It's
: cheaper than fiber glass, and it's green.
: The only reason fiberglass is still in use is because first, the lobbying of
: the fiberglass industry, second, the inertia of construction industry.
:
: fiber

j*b2010-10-27 07:10

42 楼

These are backed by experiments.
Even the fiberglass industry don't claim they have scientific evidence that fiberglass is better.

【在 s*i 的大作中提到】

: 这话说的，你这些claim难道不是cellulose的lobby集团搞出来的？
:
: it
: 't
: cellulose
: of

j*b2010-10-27 07:10

43 楼

Eventually, it's not really about who said it. It's still going to be said
by someone. Everyone has interest. So it's still yourself who make the
conclusion. Even interest groups seldom made official claims that are false.
They don't say they have scientific evidence because they don't have.
From wiki
Mold and Pest Control
The borates in cellulose insulation provide superior control against mold.
Installations have shown that even several months of water-saturation and
improper installation did not result in mold. [4]
It is a common misconception that the mere presence of crude borates in
cellulose insulation provides pest control properties to the product. While
boric acid itself does kill self-grooming insects if ingested, it must be
presented to an insect in both sufficient concentration and in an ingestible
form in order to achieve insect fatality. Proper testing of products
containing borates must be performed in order to determine whether dosage
and presentation are sufficient to kill insects. Once tested, registration
with the EPA as a pesticide is required before a product may be touted as
having pesticidal capabilities.

【在 f****i 的大作中提到】

: 你给的链接也太利益集团了

f*i2010-10-27 07:10

44 楼

look at your statement:
Even interest groups seldom made official claims that are false.
那你第一个帖子发出来还有啥意义？不是自相矛盾吗？

false.

【在 j***b 的大作中提到】

: Eventually, it's not really about who said it. It's still going to be said
: by someone. Everyone has interest. So it's still yourself who make the
: conclusion. Even interest groups seldom made official claims that are false.
: They don't say they have scientific evidence because they don't have.
: From wiki
: Mold and Pest Control
: The borates in cellulose insulation provide superior control against mold.
: Installations have shown that even several months of water-saturation and
: improper installation did not result in mold. [4]
: It is a common misconception that the mere presence of crude borates in

j*b2010-10-27 07:10

45 楼

Let's put it this way, they don't say something that are out right lies.
They may say something vague but usually not OUT RIGHT LIES.
For example, if they don't have scientific evidence, they will not say they have, because it's OUT RIGHT LIE. But they will still say that cellulose is a fire hazard, which is false.
I hope I have got myself understood.

【在 f****i 的大作中提到】

: look at your statement:
: Even interest groups seldom made official claims that are false.
: 那你第一个帖子发出来还有啥意义？不是自相矛盾吗？
:
: false.

f*i2010-10-27 07:10

46 楼

那你认为global warming论使用的线性外推法是不是bloody lie？

they have, because it's OUT RIGHT LIE. But they will still say that
cellulose is a fire hazard, which is false.

【在 j***b 的大作中提到】

: Let's put it this way, they don't say something that are out right lies.
: They may say something vague but usually not OUT RIGHT LIES.
: For example, if they don't have scientific evidence, they will not say they have, because it's OUT RIGHT LIE. But they will still say that cellulose is a fire hazard, which is false.
: I hope I have got myself understood.

j*b2010-10-27 07:10

47 楼

No. People use 线性外推 all the time. It's not totally reliable, but it's
still tells something.

【在 f****i 的大作中提到】

: 那你认为global warming论使用的线性外推法是不是bloody lie？
:
: they have, because it's OUT RIGHT LIE. But they will still say that
: cellulose is a fire hazard, which is false.

f*i2010-10-27 07:10

48 楼

在一个三阶以上的模型不明复杂系统里面做外推就是自找麻烦，特别是在预测时间跟观
察时间基本上差不多的情况下。
举个例子：昨天和今天都是晴天，所以明天会是晴天，后天也是？

【在 j***b 的大作中提到】

: No. People use 线性外推 all the time. It's not totally reliable, but it's
: still tells something.

j*b2010-10-27 07:10

49 楼

你的意思是不要预测未来的气候，走着瞧？

【在 f****i 的大作中提到】

: 在一个三阶以上的模型不明复杂系统里面做外推就是自找麻烦，特别是在预测时间跟观
: 察时间基本上差不多的情况下。
: 举个例子：昨天和今天都是晴天，所以明天会是晴天，后天也是？

f*i2010-10-27 07:10

50 楼

预测了，结果呢？连哥本哈根会议名称都从global warming改成了climate change

【在 j***b 的大作中提到】

: 你的意思是不要预测未来的气候，走着瞧？

j*b2010-10-27 07:10

51 楼

climate change这个叫法的原因似乎是因为global warming并不只是天气变暖，还有气候变化，比如飓风增加，极端气候频繁等等。
其实我觉得把"现行外推"叫做bloody lie才是不诚实。难道你看着气温不断增高就不能推测一下如果这个趋势持续下去会怎样？

【在 f****i 的大作中提到】

: 预测了，结果呢？连哥本哈根会议名称都从global warming改成了climate change

f*r2010-10-27 07:10

52 楼

真够酸的，

f*i2010-10-27 07:10

53 楼

大气系统对我们来说是不是可控的都不知道
你继续忧天吧，我闪了

气候变化，比如飓风增加，极端气候频繁等等。
能推测一下如果这个趋势持续下去会怎样？

【在 j***b 的大作中提到】

: climate change这个叫法的原因似乎是因为global warming并不只是天气变暖，还有气候变化，比如飓风增加，极端气候频繁等等。
: 其实我觉得把"现行外推"叫做bloody lie才是不诚实。难道你看着气温不断增高就不能推测一下如果这个趋势持续下去会怎样？

j*b2010-10-27 07:10

54 楼

你不忧天是一回事。别人忧了就说别人是bloody lie?
现行趋势的延伸这个是很常用的。气候短期效应起伏很大。但是长期平均值还是有一定趋势。对趋势的现行延伸是很常规的处理。而把这叫做bloody lie说明的是根本就没想做学术探讨，而是要摸黑对方。
你不同意别人的理论没什么。为什么一定要这么激烈地攻击对方呢？否认全球变暖的人太热衷这种人身攻击了。全球变暖方面的几个头面人物，比如戈尔，汉森等等关于他们的很恶毒的攻击非常之多。
另外就是反对全球变暖的人经常故意的misinform。比如他们说水蒸气的温室效应比二氧化碳还强。却不提水循环跟碳循环根本就没有可比性。其实水蒸气的温室效应稍微深入了解一些的人都知道怎么回事。但是他们说这个却能唬住很多大众。这就是我觉得反对全球变暖阵营的不诚实性。类似的事情还有很多。

【在 f****i 的大作中提到】

: 大气系统对我们来说是不是可控的都不知道
: 你继续忧天吧，我闪了
:
: 气候变化，比如飓风增加，极端气候频繁等等。
: 能推测一下如果这个趋势持续下去会怎样？

f*i2010-10-27 07:10

55 楼

我都跟你说了是个高阶系统了，你也不深入了解一下
至于戈尔，这是一个被美国总统说是“flip flop”的人

定趋势。对趋势的现行延伸是很常规的处理。而把这叫做bloody lie说明的是根本就没
想做学术探讨，而是要摸黑对方。
人太热衷这种人身攻击了。全球变暖方面的几个头面人物，比如戈尔，汉森等等关于他
们的很恶毒的攻击非常之多。
二氧化碳还强。却不提水循环跟碳循环根本就没有可比性。其实水蒸气的温室效应稍微
深入了解一些的人都知道怎么回事。但是他们说这个却能唬住很多大众。这就是我觉得
反对全球变暖阵营的不诚

【在 j***b 的大作中提到】

: 你不忧天是一回事。别人忧了就说别人是bloody lie?
: 现行趋势的延伸这个是很常用的。气候短期效应起伏很大。但是长期平均值还是有一定趋势。对趋势的现行延伸是很常规的处理。而把这叫做bloody lie说明的是根本就没想做学术探讨，而是要摸黑对方。
: 你不同意别人的理论没什么。为什么一定要这么激烈地攻击对方呢？否认全球变暖的人太热衷这种人身攻击了。全球变暖方面的几个头面人物，比如戈尔，汉森等等关于他们的很恶毒的攻击非常之多。
: 另外就是反对全球变暖的人经常故意的misinform。比如他们说水蒸气的温室效应比二氧化碳还强。却不提水循环跟碳循环根本就没有可比性。其实水蒸气的温室效应稍微深入了解一些的人都知道怎么回事。但是他们说这个却能唬住很多大众。这就是我觉得反对全球变暖阵营的不诚实性。类似的事情还有很多。

j*b2010-10-27 07:10

56 楼

你具体给个文献吧。怎么个高阶法。

【在 f****i 的大作中提到】

: 我都跟你说了是个高阶系统了，你也不深入了解一下
: 至于戈尔，这是一个被美国总统说是“flip flop”的人
:
: 定趋势。对趋势的现行延伸是很常规的处理。而把这叫做bloody lie说明的是根本就没
: 想做学术探讨，而是要摸黑对方。
: 人太热衷这种人身攻击了。全球变暖方面的几个头面人物，比如戈尔，汉森等等关于他
: 们的很恶毒的攻击非常之多。
: 二氧化碳还强。却不提水循环跟碳循环根本就没有可比性。其实水蒸气的温室效应稍微
: 深入了解一些的人都知道怎么回事。但是他们说这个却能唬住很多大众。这就是我觉得
: 反对全球变暖阵营的不诚

f*i2010-10-27 07:10

57 楼

J. F. Robin McIlveen, Fundamentals of Weather and Climate, section 1
introduction;
Ivan Zelinka, Evolutionary Algorithms and Chaotic Systems, section 3.3
Universal feathers of chaos;

【在 j***b 的大作中提到】

: 你具体给个文献吧。怎么个高阶法。

j*b2010-10-27 07:10

58 楼

Fine. I'd rather be a bloody liar.

【在 f****i 的大作中提到】

: J. F. Robin McIlveen, Fundamentals of Weather and Climate, section 1
: introduction;
: Ivan Zelinka, Evolutionary Algorithms and Chaotic Systems, section 3.3
: Universal feathers of chaos;

f*i2010-10-27 07:10

59 楼

你不qualify。把水搅混了难道你能拿到钱？

【在 j***b 的大作中提到】

: Fine. I'd rather be a bloody liar.

j*b2010-10-27 07:10

60 楼

Don't get it to serious. I just don't want to invest to much time by getting to much into the global warming mess. Let's just say that I trust the scientist more than the oil big moneys, and I believe you can get more money speaking for the big money industry.
I also trust common sense. If you think weather is too complicated, then I think linear extension is more appropriate than "higher rank".

【在 f****i 的大作中提到】

: 你不qualify。把水搅混了难道你能拿到钱？

b*a2010-10-27 07:10

61 楼

我看明白了，当当当是玻璃纤维的枪手；金嗓子是植物纤维的先锋。

getting to much into the global warming mess. Let's just say that I trust
the scientist more than the oil big moneys, and I believe you can get more
money speaking for the big money indu:
think linear extension is more appropriate than "higher rank".

【在 j***b 的大作中提到】

: Don't get it to serious. I just don't want to invest to much time by getting to much into the global warming mess. Let's just say that I trust the scientist more than the oil big moneys, and I believe you can get more money speaking for the big money industry.
: I also trust common sense. If you think weather is too complicated, then I think linear extension is more appropriate than "higher rank".

f*i2010-10-27 07:10

62 楼

嗯
谁把我家阁楼的保温材料换新的我就跟谁混好了

【在 b*a 的大作中提到】

: 我看明白了，当当当是玻璃纤维的枪手；金嗓子是植物纤维的先锋。
:
: getting to much into the global warming mess. Let's just say that I trust
: the scientist more than the oil big moneys, and I believe you can get more
: money speaking for the big money indu:
: think linear extension is more appropriate than "higher rank".