bring down all other bonds, TIP, corporate and junk bonds. It is a crazy world.Fed will have to intervene to exit Qulititave E faster to protect bond market.
Yeah, big crash today. Yield at 18-months high now. But what do you mean by "intervene to exit QE faster to protect bond market"? I thought you'd say "keep QE in place for extended period of time to protect bond market"...
world.Fed will have to intervene to exit Qulititave E faster to protect bond market.
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】 : bring down all other bonds, TIP, corporate and junk bonds. It is a crazy world.Fed will have to intervene to exit Qulititave E faster to protect bond market.
c*b
4 楼
never heard of that.能不能先把横着长的先拔掉,然后把那个45斜着长的纠正成正常 竖直长,然后再拔? bone graft如果是别人的,会不会有排异反应啊?
no, if u see 扬汤止沸 not working anymore,u have to 釜底抽薪。
market"? protect bond
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】 : Yeah, big crash today. Yield at 18-months high now. : But what do you mean by "intervene to exit QE faster to protect bond market"? : I thought you'd say "keep QE in place for extended period of time to protect : bond market"... : : world.Fed will have to intervene to exit Qulititave E faster to protect bond : market.
s*n
6 楼
I doubt Fed will ever 釜底抽薪.
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】 : no, if u see 扬汤止沸 not working anymore,u have to 釜底抽薪。 : : market"? : protect : bond
m*a
7 楼
But Fed will have no choice. They still have to sell $80 billions bonds each week for the fiscal stimulus plan. Image how much more interest they will have to pay for the new debt. I believe that Fed will do something to ensure that stability of the bond market. If 10 year treasury spikes to 4.5% and have the possibility to go higher, it is really bad. China and Japan will not want to be a bagholder that buy a lot of bonds at 4%.
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】 : no, if u see 扬汤止沸 not working anymore,u have to 釜底抽薪。 : : market"? : protect : bond
L*a
8 楼
才 4%, no big deal ah. 2006,2007 都到过 5%. 90 年代 到过 8%, 80 年代到过 14%. 说 crash 还太早吧。
according to wsj today, Fed still has internal debate as to whether imminent danger is deflation or inflation. don't expect it to tighten monetary policy anytime soon. and stock has another leg to go.
k*u
11 楼
another 50 bp will negate all the 8000 and 10000 哭胖s for the housing market. and will add too many variables into the borrowing environment.. hehe 好玩儿了。
another 50 bp will negate all the 8000 and 10000 哭胖s for the housing market. and will add too many variables into the borrowing environment.. hehe 好玩儿了。
账不能这么算的。8000 是 instant rebate,利息再涨也无非每个月多付几十块钱。 虽然 time value 可能是一样的,对普通消费者却完全是两码事。 Treasury bond will crash. But it's not in crash stage now. 4% is still belongs to very low range for 10-yr note. BTW, may I ask what your nickname “最后的决战”means?
【在 k**u 的大作中提到】 : another 50 bp will negate all the 8000 and 10000 哭胖s for the housing : market. : and will add too many variables into the borrowing environment.. hehe : 好玩儿了。
m*a
14 楼
Put the current rate into a historic perspective is not a good way to compare the seriousness of the bond market. I agree the current rate is lower (4%) than the historic norm 5.48% for 10 year treasury bonds. But you have to remember that growth rate and more importantly inflation rate are very high in 70-80-90s. Inflation was close to or above 10% in 80s. We have very low growth rate and low inflation and possible deflation environment. So the spread between the rate and inflation is actually