我老特来声援哭包# Piebridge - 鹊桥
m*i
1 楼
2009年， 我在版上第一次公布了我的Stock holding， 其中有二个股票 PMI/RDN，
当时，RDN的股价同今天差不多，3块出头。
一周以后, RDN有好的季报，股票当天涨了三快多钱(翻了一倍)。这二个股票引起很多
同学的注意，RDN曾经到过接近20，但是我在20没有买，大约掉到12左右买掉了。
有些同学(包括我), 在这个股票上挣了不少钱。
在2009年
1) RDN book value was around 30, PMI's was over 10, so price/Book was very
attractive
2) People expected the housing crisis would be over(or close over) by now(
2011-2012).
但看看现在
1) RDN's book value is under 7, PMI is under 2(I expect that PMI's book
value should be close to $1 after next month earning).
2) No immediate housing recovery in site
这就是为什么几个月前，我short MTG/RDN(PMI's price was below $5 and I could
not short with Scottrade),在股版上也喊了很多次!
现在股票价格掉了很多，是不是可以买?
1) Mortgage companies need strong capital position to run their business,
their loan(risk)/Capital ratio is very high right now. They are really short
in Capital
2) They will not get the same settlement like AGO to bank of America, simply
MI denied some of the claim based on the false document...
3) These is no recovery for housing market in sight.
4) Mortgage insurance might not be a viable business modal if you understand
US foreclosure procedure.
Conclusion:
大家炒抄可以(play short term bounce)，不要赌大。 PMI从一块到是8块不会Repeat
的!
I am still very bearish for the whole group.
My 2 cents
当时，RDN的股价同今天差不多，3块出头。
一周以后, RDN有好的季报，股票当天涨了三快多钱(翻了一倍)。这二个股票引起很多
同学的注意，RDN曾经到过接近20，但是我在20没有买，大约掉到12左右买掉了。
有些同学(包括我), 在这个股票上挣了不少钱。
在2009年
1) RDN book value was around 30, PMI's was over 10, so price/Book was very
attractive
2) People expected the housing crisis would be over(or close over) by now(
2011-2012).
但看看现在
1) RDN's book value is under 7, PMI is under 2(I expect that PMI's book
value should be close to $1 after next month earning).
2) No immediate housing recovery in site
这就是为什么几个月前，我short MTG/RDN(PMI's price was below $5 and I could
not short with Scottrade),在股版上也喊了很多次!
现在股票价格掉了很多，是不是可以买?
1) Mortgage companies need strong capital position to run their business,
their loan(risk)/Capital ratio is very high right now. They are really short
in Capital
2) They will not get the same settlement like AGO to bank of America, simply
MI denied some of the claim based on the false document...
3) These is no recovery for housing market in sight.
4) Mortgage insurance might not be a viable business modal if you understand
US foreclosure procedure.
Conclusion:
大家炒抄可以(play short term bounce)，不要赌大。 PMI从一块到是8块不会Repeat
的!
I am still very bearish for the whole group.
My 2 cents
