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Just for fun: Why don’t people wanna stay in US?

Just for fun: Why don’t people wanna stay in US?# Returnee - 海归

l*o2011-05-27 07:05

1 楼

看了一篇题为 “Why some people still wanna stay in US so much?”的英文文章后
,于是决定利用这个长周末前的星期五写一篇中文的反驳文增加一点生活的乐趣. 请注
意本文的主旨不在于对是否应该海归发表意见,本文旨在反击美国衰落说.
美国衰落论者的一个最强的观点就是美国深陷巨额的债务中,将无法维持,而且许多人视
美国将步PIGS的后尘陷入债务危机中. 这是许多人错误地理解了现代货币原理导致的认
识误区.巴菲特简洁明了地说过: “只要我们发行的债券是以我们自己的货币(来计价的
),美国就不会有任何种类的债务危机.”伯南克也在国会表达了类似的观点.但是为什么
财经界和政界还是有许许多多的人在炒作这个话题呢.一个当然是为了引人注目,比如说
前段时间美女Meredith Whitney宣称市政债券危机一样;还有一个原因是一些政客为了
借此施压政府消减开支.前一种炒作已经一遍遍地被证明是不会发生的,后一种炒作其实
有利于美国的经济,因为政府的开支很大一部分是对资金的低效使用,比如说对高铁的补
贴等等.所以其实美国国债并不会导致美国衰败,而且对其的担忧和争论其实将有助于国
家发现问题,解决问题.
美国衰落论者的另一个理据是美国制造业的衰落.事实上美国迄今为止仍然是世界上最
大的制造产出国.根据目前拥有的2009年全球制造业产出数据,美国的产出比中国仍然高
出45%.之所以美国的制造业给人的感觉在衰落的原因有以下几点:制造业在整体GDP中的
比例在不断下降,制造业提供的工作机会大大下降,日常使用的产品很多来自国外制造.
造成这些现象的原因是什么呢?一方面是美国社会的转型,服务业的蓬勃发展,比如说
1947年你花$100购买一项服务,今天你得花$1250,但是如果你是购买的$100使用物品,现
在你仅需要$314.另一方面则是美国制造业效率的大大提高和低端劳动密集型制造业的
流出.今天美国一个工人一年的平均产出是$180,000,而1972年这个数据是$60,000.所以
美国的制造业并没有衰落,只是转向于高效高端而已.其实这样的转变在美国历史上也发
生过,那就是农业机械化的过程.
美国衰落论者的另一个理据是美国生活方式对石油这个不可再生资源的过度依赖.就在
全世界的政客们都在为太阳能,风能,核能这些所谓的清洁能源而高潮不已时,美国充满
创新精神的私营企业主和技术人员们开发出了新的开采技术来开发shale gas. 这一技
术的发展将使美国已经探明的天然气储量可以供应美国使用一个世纪以上.就在政客们
还在为那些 “性感” 的新能源提供政府补贴浪费钱时,这一新技术导致的清洁能源天
然气的供应已经使美国站在了一场能源革命的门槛上.
好了,再换个角度看看美国的优势:
人均real GDP: 美国1878 $2800, 中国2010 $2800
全球最有价值品牌100强: 美国50个,日本6个,韩国2个,中国,新加坡 0个;
税负从重到轻: 中国全球No.2,日本No.15,美国No.48.
最后一点我最喜欢美国的:
拥有全球最好的体育赛事,全球最好的娱乐包括电影,电视,电玩,Casino 等等.
所以Why don’t some people wanna stay in US?

h*r2011-05-27 07:05

2 楼

只要美元不是世界货币就行了，看美国还能有今天这样的生活？

dn2011-05-27 07:05

3 楼

This won't happen as long as US military force is still No.1.
In another word, this won't change unless there is a WWIII.

【在 h********r 的大作中提到】

: 只要美元不是世界货币就行了，看美国还能有今天这样的生活？

dn2011-05-27 07:05

4 楼

This won't happen as long as US military force is still No.1.
In another word, this won't change unless there is a WWIII.

【在 h********r 的大作中提到】

: 只要美元不是世界货币就行了，看美国还能有今天这样的生活？

W*e2011-05-27 07:05

5 楼

If this indeed comes into reality, you guys will all go to concentration
camps, no doubt about it. Just look at 2008 torch relay, you can see the
real face of white American.

【在 dn 的大作中提到】

: This won't happen as long as US military force is still No.1.
: In another word, this won't change unless there is a WWIII.

a*s2011-05-27 07:05

6 楼

回国的决定就能让你对在美华人落井下石？
美国现在的人权概念比二战的时候进步了不知道多少，绝对不可能把自己
国家的一个民族全部放进集中营。
从人权的角度讲，两国战争中，在美华人的处境肯定比在华海归的处境好。
看看美国如何对待释放回来的美籍战俘，和中国如何对待释放回来的中籍
战俘，就可以知道。中国政府非常容不下“可能”有异心的人。
anyway, 战争是不会发生的，看看那么多贝勒格格都在美国安居，他们的父母
或者爷爷奶奶怎么可能跟美国开战呢。

【在 W*****e 的大作中提到】

: If this indeed comes into reality, you guys will all go to concentration
: camps, no doubt about it. Just look at 2008 torch relay, you can see the
: real face of white American.

o*y2011-05-27 07:05

7 楼

Thank you for your comments. It's always delighted to learn new things from
debates.
看了一篇题为 “Why some people still wanna stay in US so much?”的英文文章后
,于是决定利用这个长周末前的星期五写一篇中文的反驳文增加一点生活的乐趣. 请注
意本文的主旨不在于对是否应该海归发表意见,本文旨在反击美国衰落说.
美国衰落论者的一个最强的观点就是美国深陷巨额的债务中,将无法维持,而且许多人视
美国将步PIGS的后尘陷入债务危机中. 这是许多人错误地理解了现代货币原理导致的认
识误区.巴菲特简洁明了地说过: “只要我们发行的债券是以我们自己的货币(来计价的
),美国就不会有任何种类的债务危机.”伯南克也在国会表达了类似的观点.但是为什么
财经界和政界还是有许许多多的人在炒作这个话题呢.一个当然是为了引人注目,比如说
前段时间美女Meredith Whitney宣称市政债券危机一样;还有一个原因是一些政客为了
借此施压政府消减开支.前一种炒作已经一遍遍地被证明是不会发生的,后一种炒作其实
有利于美国的经济,因为政府的开支很大一部分是对资金的低效使用,比如说对高铁的补
贴等等.所以其实美国国债并不会导致美国衰败,而且对其的担忧和争论其实将有助于国
家发现问题,解决问题.
I absolutely understand your arguments. However, you have ignored there are
some possibilities that US economy will collapse due to the deepest debt in
the history of the world.
First, you assume that US dollar will continue to be the reserve currency
permanently. Before arguing why this may not be true. Let's review the
history, UK was the strongest country in 19th century, UK had the largest
terrotories in the world, UK had controled most of the natural resources,
and Britsh Pound was the reserve currency. However, the situation changed
quickly when time stepping into 20th century. Anyways, 19th century is the
century of UK, 20th century is the century of US, and 21st century is the
century of China, if you don't believe that, most governments believe that.
Many people believe that US dollar will permanently be the researve currency
, like believing in a religion, at least this is illogical. As I mentioned
in my post, US government keep debasing its currency, priting more money,
save those "too big to fail" companies, it will never be able to pay off the
debts.
Second, you assume that Chinese, Japanese and Saudis will permantly keep
buying US govenment bonds, there is a big question mark here. In fact, many
countries are doing something to change this situation. China would rather
buy Greece bond nowadays instead of US bonds, because when China buys Greece
in euros, they sell US dollars, and the portfolio is diversified. China
thinks Greece and EU have better credit records than US does, what an irony.
OPEC is considering the possibility of oil trade using other major
currencies, such as euros, yen, and RMB. Iran and Venezuela has already
publicly said no to US dollar.
Anyways, if these two possibilities come to be true, all American dreams are
over, there is no question about it. You may say US millitary is still NO.1
, but again, review the history about how the global millitary dominance
shifted from UK to US, and check the situation now, China also has stealth
aircraft as well as aircraft carrier, and Chinese millitary will be stronger
in future. Talking about US politics, those politicians like Ron Paul may
save US, but Ron Paul is a backbone, spending cut means degradation of life
quality, US voters will say no to him. Every politician only cares about
their elections, otherwise they will not be elected, this is the
disadvantage of democracy. In one sentence, US is doomed.
美国衰落论者的另一个理据是美国制造业的衰落.事实上美国迄今为止仍然是世界上最
大的制造产出国.根据目前拥有的2009年全球制造业产出数据,美国的产出比中国仍然高
出45%.之所以美国的制造业给人的感觉在衰落的原因有以下几点:制造业在整体GDP中的
比例在不断下降,制造业提供的工作机会大大下降,日常使用的产品很多来自国外制造.
造成这些现象的原因是什么呢?一方面是美国社会的转型,服务业的蓬勃发展,比如说
1947年你花$100购买一项服务,今天你得花$1250,但是如果你是购买的$100使用物品,现
在你仅需要$314.另一方面则是美国制造业效率的大大提高和低端劳动密集型制造业的
流出.今天美国一个工人一年的平均产出是$180,000,而1972年这个数据是$60,000.所以
美国的制造业并没有衰落,只是转向于高效高端而已.其实这样的转变在美国历史上也发
生过,那就是农业机械化的过程.
I agree with you that manufacture in US is still strong compared with other
countries. But if you look in the long trend, since the past 30 years,
manufacture in US is decaying all the time, firstly challenged by Japan, and
then China, and the trend will continue, the proportion of manufacture in
GDP will be smaller and smaller. There will be no turnaround even if there
might be some minor rebounds becasue the price of US goods is not
competitive. If you review the US stock market, the blue chip of the bluest
in 1970s was GM, then IBM in the 1980s, then high-tech in the 1990s, then
financials and Apple in this decade. Americans are overlooking the real
economy more and more. There will be no rebound for the real economy like
automobile industry, I can assure you that. US still has lots of core
technologies that China doesn't have, but this imbalance will change.
Science and technology always go where money is, as long as China is still
attractive for investment in high-tech, just like today, China will
eventually replace US as the largest high-tech exporter.
美国衰落论者的另一个理据是美国生活方式对石油这个不可再生资源的过度依赖.就在
全世界的政客们都在为太阳能,风能,核能这些所谓的清洁能源而高潮不已时,美国充满
创新精神的私营企业主和技术人员们开发出了新的开采技术来开发shale gas. 这一技
术的发展将使美国已经探明的天然气储量可以供应美国使用一个世纪以上.就在政客们
还在为那些 “性感” 的新能源提供政府补贴浪费钱时,这一新技术导致的清洁能源天
然气的供应已经使美国站在了一场能源革命的门槛上.
You have neglected the economic factors. You do have a lot of shale gas in
US and tar sands in Canada, and presalt in Brazil. But converting those
natural resources into usable energy costs a lot more than the traditional
crude oil. Think about it, although you can possibly make gasoline from
shale gas someday, the gas price will be $10/gallon, would you afford to
drive everyday?
好了,再换个角度看看美国的优势:
人均real GDP: 美国1878 $2800, 中国2010 $2800
全球最有价值品牌100强: 美国50个,日本6个,韩国2个,中国,新加坡 0个;
税负从重到轻: 中国全球No.2,日本No.15,美国No.48.
最后一点我最喜欢美国的:
拥有全球最好的体育赛事,全球最好的娱乐包括电影,电视,电玩,Casino 等等.
所以Why don’t some people wanna stay in US?

【在 l*****o 的大作中提到】

: 看了一篇题为 “Why some people still wanna stay in US so much?”的英文文章后
: ,于是决定利用这个长周末前的星期五写一篇中文的反驳文增加一点生活的乐趣. 请注
: 意本文的主旨不在于对是否应该海归发表意见,本文旨在反击美国衰落说.
: 美国衰落论者的一个最强的观点就是美国深陷巨额的债务中,将无法维持,而且许多人视
: 美国将步PIGS的后尘陷入债务危机中. 这是许多人错误地理解了现代货币原理导致的认
: 识误区.巴菲特简洁明了地说过: “只要我们发行的债券是以我们自己的货币(来计价的
: ),美国就不会有任何种类的债务危机.”伯南克也在国会表达了类似的观点.但是为什么
: 财经界和政界还是有许许多多的人在炒作这个话题呢.一个当然是为了引人注目,比如说
: 前段时间美女Meredith Whitney宣称市政债券危机一样;还有一个原因是一些政客为了
: 借此施压政府消减开支.前一种炒作已经一遍遍地被证明是不会发生的,后一种炒作其实

l*o2011-05-27 07:05

8 楼

1. 买美国国债跟美元是否是储备货币没有必要关系,跟相互之间的贸易有重要关系.所
以只要中国,日本,沙特保持对美国的贸易逆差,他们就要买下去. 事实上美国已经有讨
论让美元不在作为惟一的储备货币了,这反而有利于美国的经济.用英国当年和美国比,
表明你确实不了解现代货币学原理;
2.你似乎没有看懂我给出的数据,美国的制造业没有 "decaying",只是在提高效率等方
面转型而已;
3.看来你不知道shale gas是什么东西. nature gas 比石油便宜许多.

from

【在 o**y 的大作中提到】

:
: Thank you for your comments. It's always delighted to learn new things from
: debates.
: 看了一篇题为 “Why some people still wanna stay in US so much?”的英文文章后
: ,于是决定利用这个长周末前的星期五写一篇中文的反驳文增加一点生活的乐趣. 请注
: 意本文的主旨不在于对是否应该海归发表意见,本文旨在反击美国衰落说.
: 美国衰落论者的一个最强的观点就是美国深陷巨额的债务中,将无法维持,而且许多人视
: 美国将步PIGS的后尘陷入债务危机中. 这是许多人错误地理解了现代货币原理导致的认
: 识误区.巴菲特简洁明了地说过: “只要我们发行的债券是以我们自己的货币(来计价的
: ),美国就不会有任何种类的债务危机.”伯南克也在国会表达了类似的观点.但是为什么

l*y2011-05-27 07:05

9 楼

However, there is growing evidence that the extraction and use of shale gas
results in the release of more greenhouse gases than conventional natural
gas,
and may lead to emissions greater than those of oil or coal (see '
Environment'
below)

【在 l*****o 的大作中提到】

: 1. 买美国国债跟美元是否是储备货币没有必要关系,跟相互之间的贸易有重要关系.所
: 以只要中国,日本,沙特保持对美国的贸易逆差,他们就要买下去. 事实上美国已经有讨
: 论让美元不在作为惟一的储备货币了,这反而有利于美国的经济.用英国当年和美国比,
: 表明你确实不了解现代货币学原理;
: 2.你似乎没有看懂我给出的数据,美国的制造业没有 "decaying",只是在提高效率等方
: 面转型而已;
: 3.看来你不知道shale gas是什么东西. nature gas 比石油便宜许多.
:
: from

o*y2011-05-27 07:05

10 楼

Don't get me wrong. I didn't conclude any relationship between US dollar as
a researve currency and the US government bonds. For now, the answer is yes,
as long as US keep the huge trade deficit, China, Japan and Saudi have to
keep US dollars. But as I said, if the US dollar is no longer the reserve
currency, Americans will have to use Japanese yen to buy Japanese goods, use
RMB to buy Chinese goods, and probably use Euros to buy oil.
My goodness, you beat my nerves. I don't know how you know US is discussing
not to use US dollar as the only researve currency, who said that? when?
where? US will never do that. When Iraq decided to use Euro for oil trade,
US started a war...
In the past 40 years, manufacture in US is not decaying? Where is the trade
deficit from? How did Japan and China rise?
You beat my nerves again. Don't tell me you know oil industry better than me
. Natural gas is always dirt cheap compared to oil. But, if order to convert
natural gas into a usable energy which can fuel your car, you need to do
several costly process, transportation is a big cost, then you have to use
methane reformer to make syngas, than use FTS process to make a combustable
liquid fuel. You know how much that cost??

【在 l*****o 的大作中提到】

o*y2011-05-27 07:05

11 楼

Yes, environmetal factor is another big issue, not only for shale gas, but
also for tar sands in Canada.

gas

【在 l*y 的大作中提到】

: However, there is growing evidence that the extraction and use of shale gas
: results in the release of more greenhouse gases than conventional natural
: gas,
: and may lead to emissions greater than those of oil or coal (see '
: Environment'
: below)

l*o2011-05-27 07:05

12 楼

1. 看起来你还是不明白贸易逆差跟债务的关系.
你应该 "beat your nerves",http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-10/stiglitz-calls-for-new-global-reserve-currency-to-prevent-trade-imbalances.html
2. 如果你认为美国制造业产出仍然年复一年地增长是"decaying",我赞成你;如果你认
为美国不再生产衣服鞋袜这些东西,或者让人廉价代工一些低端产品是美国制造业"
decaying",我赞成你;
3. 资源有了,剩下的就是利用了,如何利用就是我在正文里指的革命啊.知道当年汽车用
什么驱动吗,后来是怎么一步步让价钱降下来的吗? 更何况现在已经有了天然气汽车了,
这样的技术发展会很难吗? 而其本来我原文主旨是指出所谓的能源危机是不可能发生的
.100多年前就有人担心煤用完了怎么办,今天你还担心吗?

as
yes,
use
discussing

【在 o**y 的大作中提到】

: Yes, environmetal factor is another big issue, not only for shale gas, but
: also for tar sands in Canada.
:
: gas

z*n2011-05-27 07:05

13 楼

他是一个去年还在担心没法办H1留不下来的学化学的学生...你费这劲干什么?
这种没有任何社会经历的人的观点可以直接忽视. 他自己连自己本人的发展方向都几天一个主意, 明天也许就转身一变成老将反过来说中国不是了.

了,

【在 l*****o 的大作中提到】

: 1. 看起来你还是不明白贸易逆差跟债务的关系.
: 你应该 "beat your nerves",http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-10/stiglitz-calls-for-new-global-reserve-currency-to-prevent-trade-imbalances.html
: 2. 如果你认为美国制造业产出仍然年复一年地增长是"decaying",我赞成你;如果你认
: 为美国不再生产衣服鞋袜这些东西,或者让人廉价代工一些低端产品是美国制造业"
: decaying",我赞成你;
: 3. 资源有了,剩下的就是利用了,如何利用就是我在正文里指的革命啊.知道当年汽车用
: 什么驱动吗,后来是怎么一步步让价钱降下来的吗? 更何况现在已经有了天然气汽车了,
: 这样的技术发展会很难吗? 而其本来我原文主旨是指出所谓的能源危机是不可能发生的
: .100多年前就有人担心煤用完了怎么办,今天你还担心吗?
:

o*y2011-05-27 07:05

14 楼

Hehe, Stigliz's opinions just supported my arguments in my post, US dollar
is possible to lose its position as a reserve currency. You should pay
attention that, Stigliz is not standing on the perspective of US benefits
only, he is standing on a global context, therefore US government will never
agree with him. Well, US has freedom of speech, so scholars can publish
their ideas opposite to the national benefit, there is quite different from
China, I agree.
This is what's happening, look at the all time high trade deficit year by
year.
如果你认为美国不再生产衣服鞋袜这些东西,或者让人廉价代工一些低端产品是美国制
造业"decaying",我赞成你;
I don't mean that. outsourcing those labor-intensive manufacture was the
first step which happened 20 years ago, nowadays, more companines are
outsourcing its R&D and other capital-intensive manufactures. At the same
time, competition from Japan and China on those high-tech products is
getting more tense. Therefore, US manufacture as a whole is definitely
shrinking. Apple is successful, but how big is the size of that?
了,
Yes, I never deny there will be industrial revolution in energy sector or
any sector consuming less and less oil. But the reality is the world is
running out of known researves of oil at a rate of 6% per year, according to
IEA data. 10 to 20 years later, you can't buy any crude oil at any price.
Whatever improvement in the alternative energies will doubtedly provide any
cheap energy, at that time, US is the one who is starving for energy most.

【在 l*****o 的大作中提到】

h*72011-05-27 07:05

15 楼

楼主 over-rate 那个 shale gas 了. 好像那个页岩天然气就是世界能源问题的灵丹妙
药了. 其实这是过分乐观.
能源结构必须得改革, 必须得多样化. 这是大势所趋. 把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里是危险的
.

b*g2011-05-27 07:05

16 楼

中国的制造业最近十几年进步很快，但是和美国相比差距还非常大，再给几十年也很难
赶上。中国制造业如果真的很牛比，美国的航母也就不会到黄海来显摆了。

W*e2011-05-27 07:05

17 楼

为保住美国的世界老大的地位华人算个屁啊.算了,赶飞机去了,大家保重

【在 a***s 的大作中提到】

: 回国的决定就能让你对在美华人落井下石？
: 美国现在的人权概念比二战的时候进步了不知道多少，绝对不可能把自己
: 国家的一个民族全部放进集中营。
: 从人权的角度讲，两国战争中，在美华人的处境肯定比在华海归的处境好。
: 看看美国如何对待释放回来的美籍战俘，和中国如何对待释放回来的中籍
: 战俘，就可以知道。中国政府非常容不下“可能”有异心的人。
: anyway, 战争是不会发生的，看看那么多贝勒格格都在美国安居，他们的父母
: 或者爷爷奶奶怎么可能跟美国开战呢。