黄金高涨是 Baby Boomers 发情在找第二春# Stock
w*2
1 楼
CNBC 真是太有才了。
金价银价近期看来要大涨了！
Marriage, Baby Boomers and the Case for Gold
Published: Saturday, 27 Aug 2011 | 10:46 AM ET
By: Patrick Allen
CNBC EMEA Head of News
With the Baby Boomer generation getting older and the market increasingly
volatile, there has been a lot of debate about how the aging population can
find an investment that will help pay for their retirement.
The San Francisco Fed released a study earlier this year that looks at the
life stages of Americans born between 1946 and 1964. Its findings do not
bode well for the stock markets, according to Nicholas Colas, the chief
market strategist at ConvergEx.
In order to make the case for how preferences change over the course of a
lifetime, Colas refers to what he describes as an "old wisdom" that you
should marry three times across the course of your life. The first marriage,
according to Colas, is for "physical companionship," the second spouse
should be family-focused, and the third should provide excellent emotional
and intellectual companionship to help you enjoy your old age.
“The aphorism seems to dismiss that romantic ideal in favor of hard-nosed
pragmatics, notwithstanding divorce lawyers and associated transaction costs
,” said Colas in a research note.
The marriages example shows how preferences can change over the course of
one’s life, and this same phenomenon in preferences can effect the way you
invest, according to Colas.
We tend to be less risk averse when young and willing to take bigger risks
in order to make bigger returns, but when then as we grow older, we seek
safety at the expense of profit.
In an attempt to follow this theory to its endpoint—while admitting the
whole concept of demographics-based valuation needs more scrutiny—Colas
applies the marriage theory to the market since the early 80’s.
“The first Boomers were born in 1946, making them 36 when the stock market
started its 1,100 percent move from 1982-2000,” Colas said.
“The relationship was exciting at first, with a seemingly endless new array
of investment opportunities. But after a while things just got too crazy,”
said Colas, referring to the tech bubble of the late 90’s.
The second phase, when you want a marriage based on family values, saw the
Baby Boomers snap up lots of property: bricks and mortar they could rely.
That went well until the housing market blew up. It was time for another
divorce.
Which means the Baby Boomers are now looking for some emotional and
intellectual companionship to help them enjoy their later years. But what
does that mean for the market?
“The Baby Boomer Investment Cycle doesn’t just explain dreadful equity
valuations; it also neatly outlines why interest rates are so low,” said
Colas. “Who else would accept a 2.22 percent yield for ten years, as any
buyer of U.S. Treasury notes currently does? Someone who just wants quiet
companionship with no drama.”
“Keep in mind that Baby Boomers aren’t going to go back to spouse number 1
(stocks). They tried that game in the 1990s and got burned. But offer them
a safe dividend yield, and that’s likely an asset class with which they
would be happy to spend winters in Boca,” he said.
The asset which Colas believes the Baby Boomers are now feeling good about
in their third marriage, then, is gold and other precious metals.
“If the demographic explanation for big moves in capital markets is to have
any validity, it has to explain gold. The yellow metal is well into its
11th year in rally mode, which makes me think that perhaps Boomers were
seeing gold 'on the side' when they were still married to their houses.”
“But gold as an investment seems to fit some of the requirements for a good
third spouse. Consider Wendy Deng Murdoch, who happens to be media mogul
Rupert’s third wife. Age appropriate? Whatever. She stepped in to protect
her husband when a proletarian ruffian tried to throw a cream pie. Gold is
that kind of third spouse, I think,” said Colas, who hopes the Baby Boomers
find a good investment spouse in their old age after the rocky ride on
their first two marriages.
金价银价近期看来要大涨了！
Marriage, Baby Boomers and the Case for Gold
Published: Saturday, 27 Aug 2011 | 10:46 AM ET
By: Patrick Allen
CNBC EMEA Head of News
With the Baby Boomer generation getting older and the market increasingly
volatile, there has been a lot of debate about how the aging population can
find an investment that will help pay for their retirement.
The San Francisco Fed released a study earlier this year that looks at the
life stages of Americans born between 1946 and 1964. Its findings do not
bode well for the stock markets, according to Nicholas Colas, the chief
market strategist at ConvergEx.
In order to make the case for how preferences change over the course of a
lifetime, Colas refers to what he describes as an "old wisdom" that you
should marry three times across the course of your life. The first marriage,
according to Colas, is for "physical companionship," the second spouse
should be family-focused, and the third should provide excellent emotional
and intellectual companionship to help you enjoy your old age.
“The aphorism seems to dismiss that romantic ideal in favor of hard-nosed
pragmatics, notwithstanding divorce lawyers and associated transaction costs
,” said Colas in a research note.
The marriages example shows how preferences can change over the course of
one’s life, and this same phenomenon in preferences can effect the way you
invest, according to Colas.
We tend to be less risk averse when young and willing to take bigger risks
in order to make bigger returns, but when then as we grow older, we seek
safety at the expense of profit.
In an attempt to follow this theory to its endpoint—while admitting the
whole concept of demographics-based valuation needs more scrutiny—Colas
applies the marriage theory to the market since the early 80’s.
“The first Boomers were born in 1946, making them 36 when the stock market
started its 1,100 percent move from 1982-2000,” Colas said.
“The relationship was exciting at first, with a seemingly endless new array
of investment opportunities. But after a while things just got too crazy,”
said Colas, referring to the tech bubble of the late 90’s.
The second phase, when you want a marriage based on family values, saw the
Baby Boomers snap up lots of property: bricks and mortar they could rely.
That went well until the housing market blew up. It was time for another
divorce.
Which means the Baby Boomers are now looking for some emotional and
intellectual companionship to help them enjoy their later years. But what
does that mean for the market?
“The Baby Boomer Investment Cycle doesn’t just explain dreadful equity
valuations; it also neatly outlines why interest rates are so low,” said
Colas. “Who else would accept a 2.22 percent yield for ten years, as any
buyer of U.S. Treasury notes currently does? Someone who just wants quiet
companionship with no drama.”
“Keep in mind that Baby Boomers aren’t going to go back to spouse number 1
(stocks). They tried that game in the 1990s and got burned. But offer them
a safe dividend yield, and that’s likely an asset class with which they
would be happy to spend winters in Boca,” he said.
The asset which Colas believes the Baby Boomers are now feeling good about
in their third marriage, then, is gold and other precious metals.
“If the demographic explanation for big moves in capital markets is to have
any validity, it has to explain gold. The yellow metal is well into its
11th year in rally mode, which makes me think that perhaps Boomers were
seeing gold 'on the side' when they were still married to their houses.”
“But gold as an investment seems to fit some of the requirements for a good
third spouse. Consider Wendy Deng Murdoch, who happens to be media mogul
Rupert’s third wife. Age appropriate? Whatever. She stepped in to protect
her husband when a proletarian ruffian tried to throw a cream pie. Gold is
that kind of third spouse, I think,” said Colas, who hopes the Baby Boomers
find a good investment spouse in their old age after the rocky ride on
their first two marriages.