英国电讯报道中国央行将购买BA/INTC/AAPL股票 （for real??）# Stock
b*r
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http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100
The debt markets have been warned.
A key rate setter-for China's central bank let slip – or was it a slip? –
that Beijing aims to run down its portfolio of US debt as soon as safely
possible.
"The incremental parts of our of our foreign reserve holdings should be
invested in physical assets," said Li Daokui at the World Economic Forum in
the very rainy city of Dalian – former Port Arthur from Russian colonial
days.
"We would like to buy stakes in Boeing, Intel, and Apple, and maybe we
should invest in these types of companies in a proactive way."
"Once the US Treasury market stabilizes we can liquidate more of our
holdings of Treasuries," he said.
To my knowledge, this is the first time that a top adviser to China's
central bank has uttered the word "liquidate". Until now the policy has been
to diversify slowly by investing the fresh $200bn accumulated each quarter
into other currencies and assets – chiefly AAA euro debt from Germany,
France and the hard core.
We don't know how much US debt is held by SAFE (State Administration of
Foreign Exchange), the bank's FX arm. The figure is thought to be over $2.2
trillion.
The Chinese are clearly vexed with Washington, viewing the Fed's QE as a
stealth default on US debt. Mr Li came close to calling America a basket
case, saying the picture is far worse than when Ronald Reagan and Margaret
Thatcher took over in the early 1980s.
Mr Li, one of three outside academics on China's MPC, described the debt
deals on Capitol Hill as "just trying to by time", saying it will not be
enough to stop America's "debt dynamic" turning dangerous.
Fair enough, but let us be clear: the reason China has accumulated the
equivalent of 6pc of global GDP in reserves (like the US in the 1920s) is
because it has held down its currency to gain market share. As Michael
Pettis from Beijing University points out tirelessly, the mercantilist
policy hollows out US industries and forces America to choose between debt
bubbles or unemployment – or, of course, protectionism, though we are not
there yet.
Until it abandons that core policy, it has to keep buying foreign assets and
lots of dollars. The euro can absorb only so much – 800bn euros so far –
before Europeans realize (the French already realize) that Chinese bond
purchases are double edged, and the yen the Swissie can't absorb anything at
all. (The governments are intervening to stop it). Besides, China has the
same misgivings about euro debt as it does about dollar debt. Perhaps more
so after Euroland's long-running soap opera.
So what Li Daokui said is not bad for the dollar as such. He said there is "
$10 trillion" waiting to be invested in the US, if America will open its
doors.
It is bad for bonds – or will be. The money will go into strategic land
purchases all over the world, until the backlash erupts in earnest. It will
go into equities, until Capitol Hill has a heart attack. It will go anywhere
but debt.
Yet another reason to be careful of 10-year Treasuries and Bunds below 2pc
yields. There is a big seller out there, just itching to let go.
The debt markets have been warned.
A key rate setter-for China's central bank let slip – or was it a slip? –
that Beijing aims to run down its portfolio of US debt as soon as safely
possible.
"The incremental parts of our of our foreign reserve holdings should be
invested in physical assets," said Li Daokui at the World Economic Forum in
the very rainy city of Dalian – former Port Arthur from Russian colonial
days.
"We would like to buy stakes in Boeing, Intel, and Apple, and maybe we
should invest in these types of companies in a proactive way."
"Once the US Treasury market stabilizes we can liquidate more of our
holdings of Treasuries," he said.
To my knowledge, this is the first time that a top adviser to China's
central bank has uttered the word "liquidate". Until now the policy has been
to diversify slowly by investing the fresh $200bn accumulated each quarter
into other currencies and assets – chiefly AAA euro debt from Germany,
France and the hard core.
We don't know how much US debt is held by SAFE (State Administration of
Foreign Exchange), the bank's FX arm. The figure is thought to be over $2.2
trillion.
The Chinese are clearly vexed with Washington, viewing the Fed's QE as a
stealth default on US debt. Mr Li came close to calling America a basket
case, saying the picture is far worse than when Ronald Reagan and Margaret
Thatcher took over in the early 1980s.
Mr Li, one of three outside academics on China's MPC, described the debt
deals on Capitol Hill as "just trying to by time", saying it will not be
enough to stop America's "debt dynamic" turning dangerous.
Fair enough, but let us be clear: the reason China has accumulated the
equivalent of 6pc of global GDP in reserves (like the US in the 1920s) is
because it has held down its currency to gain market share. As Michael
Pettis from Beijing University points out tirelessly, the mercantilist
policy hollows out US industries and forces America to choose between debt
bubbles or unemployment – or, of course, protectionism, though we are not
there yet.
Until it abandons that core policy, it has to keep buying foreign assets and
lots of dollars. The euro can absorb only so much – 800bn euros so far –
before Europeans realize (the French already realize) that Chinese bond
purchases are double edged, and the yen the Swissie can't absorb anything at
all. (The governments are intervening to stop it). Besides, China has the
same misgivings about euro debt as it does about dollar debt. Perhaps more
so after Euroland's long-running soap opera.
So what Li Daokui said is not bad for the dollar as such. He said there is "
$10 trillion" waiting to be invested in the US, if America will open its
doors.
It is bad for bonds – or will be. The money will go into strategic land
purchases all over the world, until the backlash erupts in earnest. It will
go into equities, until Capitol Hill has a heart attack. It will go anywhere
but debt.
Yet another reason to be careful of 10-year Treasuries and Bunds below 2pc
yields. There is a big seller out there, just itching to let go.
