再给熊熊空军们一个新战场,新战机 --- TVIX# Stock
M*8
1 楼
空军目标:TVIX。
空军手段:卖空股票 (没有 Option 可做)
空军目的:和贪婪沽空的 MM 们抢钱。
对手可能反应:故意拉高挤空后再次沽空独享下跌暴利。
最新2011年10月19日对 TVIX 分析和对策如下:
2011年10月19日的最新数据:
TVIX, 20111019, 63.2000, -7.3549, -11.6,
这意味 TVIX 短期将会到比 63.20 还低 7.35 的未来价。
先推算 TVIX 短期下跌的谷底价的理论极限:
根据不久前的谷底极限,即 26.5%
26.5 + 11.6 = 38.1%
63.2 X (1-0.381) = 39.12
这 39.12 是理论的谷底极限,不代表一定会跌到。
现在推算 TVIX 的短期高峰极限:
根据不久前的高峰价极限,即 -21.3%
21.3 - 11.6 = 9.7%
63.2 X 1.097 = 69.33
这 69.33 是 TVIX 的未来短期高峰极限。
所以 TVIX 短期的上下,在 69.33 和 39.12 之间。
由于这是理论极限,波动幅度往往是小于这两个限度。
如果万一 TVIX 跌到接近 39.12,则大起的概率极高。
同理,如果万一 TVIX 升到接近 69.33 则很可能大跌。
由于过去至少预测的百分比必需大于 -11.8% 才有可能下跌,
目前的 -11.6% 可以说是基本达到了下跌的 -11.8% 阈值。
如果卖空,应该保存现金主力,准备万一接近 69.33 时加码。
因此结论明天可以卖空少许 TVIX。但必须准备应付更高价。
如果 TVIX 明天持续拉高,熊军们应该考虑在 69.33 附近加码。
可以用 UpTrend Line 帮助精准断定 MM 们短期挤空的高峰价。
一旦 UpTrend Line 破,而价格又接近 69.33,即可加码卖空。
关键是风险控制,绝对必须保持大量的现金,应付多变的MM。
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空军手段:卖空股票 (没有 Option 可做)
空军目的:和贪婪沽空的 MM 们抢钱。
对手可能反应:故意拉高挤空后再次沽空独享下跌暴利。
最新2011年10月19日对 TVIX 分析和对策如下:
2011年10月19日的最新数据:
TVIX, 20111019, 63.2000, -7.3549, -11.6,
这意味 TVIX 短期将会到比 63.20 还低 7.35 的未来价。
先推算 TVIX 短期下跌的谷底价的理论极限:
根据不久前的谷底极限,即 26.5%
26.5 + 11.6 = 38.1%
63.2 X (1-0.381) = 39.12
这 39.12 是理论的谷底极限,不代表一定会跌到。
现在推算 TVIX 的短期高峰极限:
根据不久前的高峰价极限,即 -21.3%
21.3 - 11.6 = 9.7%
63.2 X 1.097 = 69.33
这 69.33 是 TVIX 的未来短期高峰极限。
所以 TVIX 短期的上下,在 69.33 和 39.12 之间。
由于这是理论极限,波动幅度往往是小于这两个限度。
如果万一 TVIX 跌到接近 39.12,则大起的概率极高。
同理,如果万一 TVIX 升到接近 69.33 则很可能大跌。
由于过去至少预测的百分比必需大于 -11.8% 才有可能下跌,
目前的 -11.6% 可以说是基本达到了下跌的 -11.8% 阈值。
如果卖空,应该保存现金主力,准备万一接近 69.33 时加码。
因此结论明天可以卖空少许 TVIX。但必须准备应付更高价。
如果 TVIX 明天持续拉高,熊军们应该考虑在 69.33 附近加码。
可以用 UpTrend Line 帮助精准断定 MM 们短期挤空的高峰价。
一旦 UpTrend Line 破,而价格又接近 69.33,即可加码卖空。
关键是风险控制,绝对必须保持大量的现金,应付多变的MM。
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