基本面来说，现在还是银行股和油股比较好 - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

基本面来说，现在还是银行股和油股比较好# Stock

p*r2012-07-26 07:07

1 楼

Most of banks have PE less than 10, and quite few have PB less than 1, even
less than 0.5. C, BAC, JPM, BCS, MS, GS all have PE less than 10.
The one I like most now is the C, PE around 7, PB is only 0.5(against
tangible book value). BCS is the next one I am watching. I may buy large
position after it find good CEO if its stock price still under $10.
Among all commodities, only oil is good. Think about if China stops massive
construction, there will be less and less demand for steel, and
consequently, less demand for the 矿砂(see CLF today). While oil
is completely different. People in China, Indian and many emerging countries
become richer. They will buy car, will consume more oil too. Oil price only
can go up long term. Due to the Euro debts issue. Oil price went down. Many
oil related stock went down quite bit. Now some oil related stocks are
really bargain. Their PE less than 10, some even have PB less than 1. APC/
HES/BP is in this kind of situation.
不要去碰ZNGA, FB, GPRN 这类股票。还有　AMZN/NFLX/CRM　之类的 overvalued 股票。
一个earning, overnight. 就掉20-50% because they are just overvalued.

d*k2012-07-26 07:07

2 楼

看PE显然是不靠谱的，太容易造假了。看PB要看是什么公司了，用来看银行恐怕不行，
因为它们leverage（asset)太大了，一个小小的错误（计算或经营），就把它们的book
value给抹平了。
对了，油股的话，因为经济不强，整个油价在下调中，所以并不看好。

T*C2012-07-26 07:07

3 楼

昨天是BP很好的进入点，不过我对大盘有点恐慌，没有进

even
massive
countries
only

【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】

: Most of banks have PE less than 10, and quite few have PB less than 1, even
: less than 0.5. C, BAC, JPM, BCS, MS, GS all have PE less than 10.
: The one I like most now is the C, PE around 7, PB is only 0.5(against
: tangible book value). BCS is the next one I am watching. I may buy large
: position after it find good CEO if its stock price still under $10.
: Among all commodities, only oil is good. Think about if China stops massive
: construction, there will be less and less demand for steel, and
: consequently, less demand for the 矿砂(see CLF today). While oil
: is completely different. People in China, Indian and many emerging countries
: become richer. They will buy car, will consume more oil too. Oil price only

M*h2012-07-26 07:07

4 楼

好文。股市取胜指南。

even
massive
countries
only

【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】

: Most of banks have PE less than 10, and quite few have PB less than 1, even
: less than 0.5. C, BAC, JPM, BCS, MS, GS all have PE less than 10.
: The one I like most now is the C, PE around 7, PB is only 0.5(against
: tangible book value). BCS is the next one I am watching. I may buy large
: position after it find good CEO if its stock price still under $10.
: Among all commodities, only oil is good. Think about if China stops massive
: construction, there will be less and less demand for steel, and
: consequently, less demand for the 矿砂(see CLF today). While oil
: is completely different. People in China, Indian and many emerging countries
: become richer. They will buy car, will consume more oil too. Oil price only

p*r2012-07-26 07:07

5 楼

book
So, nothing to buy. Your money will be worth less and less when everyone
prints more money. Euro debts issues will be addressed by printing more
money. There is no other solution, and ECB definitely will not let Spain/
Italy default.

【在 d**k 的大作中提到】

: 看PE显然是不靠谱的，太容易造假了。看PB要看是什么公司了，用来看银行恐怕不行，
: 因为它们leverage（asset)太大了，一个小小的错误（计算或经营），就把它们的book
: value给抹平了。
: 对了，油股的话，因为经济不强，整个油价在下调中，所以并不看好。

c*r2012-07-26 07:07

6 楼

These days, no one (including its CEO) knows what's on a bank's book.
Go figure...

even
massive
countries
only

【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】

: Most of banks have PE less than 10, and quite few have PB less than 1, even
: less than 0.5. C, BAC, JPM, BCS, MS, GS all have PE less than 10.
: The one I like most now is the C, PE around 7, PB is only 0.5(against
: tangible book value). BCS is the next one I am watching. I may buy large
: position after it find good CEO if its stock price still under $10.
: Among all commodities, only oil is good. Think about if China stops massive
: construction, there will be less and less demand for steel, and
: consequently, less demand for the 矿砂(see CLF today). While oil
: is completely different. People in China, Indian and many emerging countries
: become richer. They will buy car, will consume more oil too. Oil price only

x*n2012-07-26 07:07

7 楼

it is very true for crude oil not for banks.

d*k2012-07-26 07:07

8 楼

我只是就事论事，也不是没有什么好买的，可以买指数啊。

【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】

:
: book
: So, nothing to buy. Your money will be worth less and less when everyone
: prints more money. Euro debts issues will be addressed by printing more
: money. There is no other solution, and ECB definitely will not let Spain/
: Italy default.

p*r2012-07-26 07:07

9 楼

High risk and high award. I think some banks could go up 30-50%% from here
in 12-18 months. At the current price I also don't think downside risk is
big(over 20%) for some of the banks. C at the current price is similar to
BAC at around $5 last year. It can make $10-$13B a year. The management
wants to buy back shares at the current price. It did not get Fed approval
in
Apr, it will re-submit request next year. If it can make over $10 this year,
it will get approval next year. At that time its stock price probably would
have gone up over 30%($35 range).
For the oil stocks probably it will go up 20-30% from here in 12-18 months.

【在 x*********n 的大作中提到】

: it is very true for crude oil not for banks.

x*n2012-07-26 07:07

10 楼

banking industry is not that simple.
But for oil industry it is.

year,
would
.

【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】

:
: High risk and high award. I think some banks could go up 30-50%% from here
: in 12-18 months. At the current price I also don't think downside risk is
: big(over 20%) for some of the banks. C at the current price is similar to
: BAC at around $5 last year. It can make $10-$13B a year. The management
: wants to buy back shares at the current price. It did not get Fed approval
: in
: Apr, it will re-submit request next year. If it can make over $10 this year,
: it will get approval next year. At that time its stock price probably would
: have gone up over 30%($35 range).

p*r2012-07-26 07:07

11 楼

Both banks and oil related stocks went up more than 10% in the last 2 weeks.
I will take some profit if next two days my holding go up another 5%. The
big market may continue go up till Friday.

i*h2012-07-26 07:07

12 楼

that's where the fun is
as long as you can handle the pressure, kaka

票。
一个earning, overnight. 就掉20-50% because they are just overvalued.

【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】

: Both banks and oil related stocks went up more than 10% in the last 2 weeks.
: I will take some profit if next two days my holding go up another 5%. The
: big market may continue go up till Friday.

h*a2012-07-26 07:07

13 楼

Held hal for a year, didnt go anywhere. Took a small loss.

L*n2012-07-26 07:07

14 楼

刚看到，这个是fa的牛人。版主赶快马克吧
楼主说说现在GRPN的value如何。现在有了新CEO，很像街上又重新给机会了。现在在
关键的点位上，我是看长的，但今天的走势让人担忧。

even
massive
countries
only

【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】

: Most of banks have PE less than 10, and quite few have PB less than 1, even
: less than 0.5. C, BAC, JPM, BCS, MS, GS all have PE less than 10.
: The one I like most now is the C, PE around 7, PB is only 0.5(against
: tangible book value). BCS is the next one I am watching. I may buy large
: position after it find good CEO if its stock price still under $10.
: Among all commodities, only oil is good. Think about if China stops massive
: construction, there will be less and less demand for steel, and
: consequently, less demand for the 矿砂(see CLF today). While oil
: is completely different. People in China, Indian and many emerging countries
: become richer. They will buy car, will consume more oil too. Oil price only

x*n2012-07-26 07:07

15 楼

同意，我也只做这2个+科技。
C我背书，最好之一。
你每天喊的COF，其实是我心里喊了无数遍的#1无脑加仓股，我自己也偷偷的买了很多
。看完ER report发现good-will的比例太高，这也就是为啥ER盘后我割肉出局的原因，
现在想想也不后悔，请兄弟多看保重！有空我们COF讨论一下。
“APC/
HES/BP is in this kind of situation. ”
APC是overvalued了，这点我和你看法相反。
HES我在班上喊过，我2013能源世界文章提到的重点pick，不过现在涨了这么多了，而
且庄狠，盘子小（相对而言）我建议不要轻举妄动。
BP是undervalued，however，我有比它更好的！哈哈哈。不断无脑加仓中！

p*e2012-07-26 07:07

16 楼

赞分析。

p*r2012-07-26 07:07

17 楼

That's my last year post. How come it got bump up again ?
Back to your question.
Overall, I don't like GPRN type of business. Now I just notice it is
gradually changed to be an online retailer(sell products) instead of only
posting AD for the retailers. A couple important reasons that I don't like
this type of business.
* Entry barrier is too low. Anyone can get into the business easily.
* Consumers have no loyalty. They only have loyalty to the price. So,
margin is limited. This is the same problem that AMZN retail business
has. When it starts collecting sales tax, consumers are moving to newegg,
B&H, buydig and ebay. I am in CA, 9% tax is quite high.
If you don't own it, don't touch it. Look for something has
* consistent good margin.
* less competitive.
* really undervalued.
* brand new emerging industry.
If you already have it, find a chance to dump it whenever there are some
major announcements. Switch to the one at least meet above requirement. I
make mistake too, but I will try to find time to switch when I realize
the one I have is obviously not good one in the next 12-18 months.

G*m2012-07-26 07:07

18 楼

这些股票我都有。

p*s2012-07-26 07:07

19 楼

仰视一下大牛

【在 G*******m 的大作中提到】

: 这些股票我都有。