微软现在市值已经被google拉开，也被ibm超过
沦落到it业市值第四的尴尬地位上
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Q4 Earnings Preview: Surface And Windows 8 Not
So Magic?
January 23, 2013 01:26 PM
Stocks: MSFT,
inShare
(By Rich Bieglmeier) Microsoft Corporation (MSFT : 27.5, 0.35) is expected
to report earnings after the market closes on Thursday, January 24, 2013 at
2:30 PM - PT. Wall Street anticipates that MSFT will earn $0.75 for its
fiscal 2013 2nd quarter. iStock expects the Dow and NASDAQ 100 member to
report earnings that will exceed Wall Street's consensus number. The
iEstimate is $0.76 – a 1 cent upside surprise.
Microsoft Corporation develops, licenses, and supports software products and
services; and designs and sells hardware worldwide.
MSFT has beat Wall Street's target 10 or its last 16 quarterly checkups, hit
the target another four announcements, and for those of you keeping score,
Microsoft missed twice in last four years, including last quarter. However,
beat, miss, or bulls ‘eye, trading Microsoft's earnings has been
frustration for the tech leader. For the last 16, the stock price has gone
up eight times, by an average of 4.85%, and down 8 times with an average
loss of 3.26%.
Heads or tails for Friday? Options traders have put their chips on heads as
the number of contracts traded. Open interest for January 2013 calls for the
strike prices of 27, 27.5, and 28 is 168% higher than January put open
interest for the strike prices of 27.5, 27, and 26.5. Today's activity is no
different as 8,995 calls and 4,687 puts have traded with the same strikes
outlined above as we type. For many investors, the call/put ratio in MSFT's
case would be considered a contrarian indicator and bearish for tomorrow's
earnings.
iStock thinks the two most important items Wall Street will be watching
include Windows 8 and Surface Tablet sales. UBS analyst Brent Thill thinks
Microsoft sold fewer than one million during the holiday quarter. He sees
something in the 500,000-600,000 range. Google Trends show the Surface
Tablet running way behind the iPad, Samsung Galaxy Tablet, and Kindle during
October – December 2012. Meanwhile, it is keeping company with Google's
Nexus tablet with 1/27th the search volume intensity as the iPad.
As for Windows 8, there is little doubt that PC are getting hammered,
HAMMERED, by tablet sales. Research firms Gartner and IDC say for the first
time in four years, PC sales fell in the fourth quarter of 2012. IDC reports
that personal computer sales were down dipped 6.4 % for Q4 2012 versus Q4
2011. Gartner added, "The launch of Microsoft's Windows 8 did not have a
significant impact on PC shipments in the fourth quarter." Ouch. Between the
two, the estimate is hardware makers delivered 90 million PCs in Q4 2012,
down from 95.5 million in 2011.
Consumer research group, NPD reports since Windows 8's launch "Windows
device sales have fallen 21 percent versus the same period last year" while
desktop sales fell 9%.
Last year, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) earned 78 cents for its fourth
quarter. Based on slowing Q4 PC sales and potentially underwhelming Surface
sales, iStock thinks 75-76 cents seems about right.
