two articles in SA about jcp values - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

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two articles in SA about jcp values

two articles in SA about jcp values# Stock

y*k2013-10-06 07:10

1 楼

两个文章的valuation差别也太大了。哪位会finance的给分析分析每个文章的model的
问题？
1. J.C. Penney Still Has Further To Fall - $7 Per Share Should Be A Ceiling,
Not A Floor
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1730392-j-c-penney-still-has-fu
2 J.C. Penney: Why It Can Go To $18+ Per Share And Is Good For At Least A
Trade
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1725772-j-c-penney-why-it-can-g

j*72013-10-06 07:10

2 楼

一个是立娟／RIM／爱丁堡写的，另一个是版上的basher写的。

B*r2013-10-06 07:10

3 楼

第二个有投机想法，已经输掉。

y*k2013-10-06 07:10

4 楼

康南大师能仔细讲讲第二篇文章的问题吗？多谢。

d*52013-10-06 07:10

5 楼

所谓牛眼看牛，熊眼看熊。JCP可上可下。时间框架很重要。

y*k2013-10-06 07:10

6 楼

我仔细比较了一下，好像两个的计算主要有一下的不同：
1. 在估价18块的那篇，它提到：
By going back to couponing and low-end private label brands that its old
customers liked, it is conceivable that JCP could get back to $15 billion of
top line - a little better than half way back. It also seems possible that
JCP could get back to a 11% EBITDA multiple on that sales base or $1.65
billion. 6x that number is $9.9 billion. I am going to assume it burns
through all the money just raised until break even hits and use the
Bloomberg net debt number of $4.3 billion, which gets you $5.6 billion of
equity. Divide that number by 304 million proforma shares and you are at $18
.42.
Several numbers here:
Sales: 15B
EBITDA/Sales: 11%
EV/EBITDA: 6
Debt: 4.3B
2. In the first article, in the bullish case, those numbers are:
Sales ($ Million) $15,000
Gross Margin (%) 37%
Gross Margin ($ Million) $5,550
SG&A ($ Million) $4,400
EBITDA $1,150
EV/EBITDA Multiple 6
Enterprise Value ($ Million) $6,900
Net Debt ($ Million) $4,780
So here EBITDA/Sales is 7.67%, which is much lower than 11%. And it also
uses $4780M debt, not 4.3B debt.
Thus it expects that the upper ceiling is 7, but the first article cacluates
it as 18.

g*c2013-10-06 07:10

7 楼

seekingalpha就是英文版mitBBS
那里的人水平比古板高，危害也比古板大
看古板的文章炒股，顶多就是割肉，割JJ
看seekingalpha的文章炒股，那就是割脑袋了
都是扯鸡巴蛋

Ceiling,

【在 y***k 的大作中提到】

: 两个文章的valuation差别也太大了。哪位会finance的给分析分析每个文章的model的
: 问题？
: 1. J.C. Penney Still Has Further To Fall - $7 Per Share Should Be A Ceiling,
: Not A Floor
: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1730392-j-c-penney-still-has-fu
: 2 J.C. Penney: Why It Can Go To $18+ Per Share And Is Good For At Least A
: Trade
: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1725772-j-c-penney-why-it-can-g

D*e2013-10-06 07:10

8 楼

找啊了发就是鬼屌丝意淫网
直接block了吧

【在 g***c 的大作中提到】

: seekingalpha就是英文版mitBBS
: 那里的人水平比古板高，危害也比古板大
: 看古板的文章炒股，顶多就是割肉，割JJ
: 看seekingalpha的文章炒股，那就是割脑袋了
: 都是扯鸡巴蛋
:
: Ceiling,

C*r2013-10-06 07:10

9 楼

著名英文反指？

【在 g***c 的大作中提到】

D*e2013-10-06 07:10

10 楼

狗日的在雅虎15时候就说雅虎个屁了
就是一块死肉

E*r2013-10-06 07:10

11 楼

哈哈，注意有女士在此浏览网页，用词注意文雅！

【在 g***c 的大作中提到】

C*r2013-10-06 07:10

12 楼

女士就是割咪咪

【在 E*********r 的大作中提到】

: 哈哈，注意有女士在此浏览网页，用词注意文雅！

l*m2013-10-06 07:10

13 楼

严重同意

【在 g***c 的大作中提到】

U*f2013-10-06 07:10

14 楼

I have been watching JCP closely the past few weeks with the most recent
quarter EBITDA margin (-9.5%) improved over the prior quarter (-13.3%)...
However, free cash flow was -$2.1 billion over the past 4 quarters (-$1.1
billion in the most recent quarter)... They're flying through cash (
increasing inventories as well as advertise spend and other store
improvements).. customers have not come running back to JCP yet and it would
seem difficult especially once people started getting used to alternatives.
.. sales improved only 1% over the sequential quarter whatever that means
after such a steep decline..

Ceiling,

【在 y***k 的大作中提到】