浅谈 GILD TSLA GOOG AAPL GE （转了头肩原因）# Stock
w*n
1 楼
GILD TSLA GOOG AAPL GE呈现复杂的头肩，会反弹，但是很难超过肩膀线，可参照
technical analysis of stock trends by John Murphy, 看看头肩形成的原因。大家
请自行体会。
小股票如RMTI, KITE, CERS, XGTI, MCP, SIGA, ECYT, PLUG, FCEL, 就要看"庄家克星
"，TA作用微乎甚微。本蝌蚪也在研究中。 感觉新型能源小股短期内有起色的可能不大。
--本人蝌蚪，只是想提醒一下。来股板后受益匪浅，即使娱乐篇也可以怡情。希望有所
帮助。
从TA 书上page 57 找到的，不多，不算侵犯版权， 呵呵。
Time Required to Reverse Trend
But we do not need to lean on a racing automobile analogy to explain why
it takes time (and volume and price action) to produce an important Trend
Reversal. The logic of it is plain enough, if we take but a moment to
examine it. We can do so most easily by describing what might have (and,
doubtless,
many times has) happened in specific terms. Suppose a certain well-informed
and well-financed coterie (EN9: A congerie of mutual funds, for
example.) decides that the shares of a certain company, now selling around
40, are cheap, that this company’s affairs are progressing so
satisfactorily
that, before long, it will attract the attention of many investors and its
stock will be in demand at much higher levels, perhaps at 60 or 65. Our
group
realizes that if they manage their market operations skillfully, if nothing
unforeseen intervenes to upset their calculations, they can “take” 20
points out of the situation. So they proceed to buy in all offerings, going
about
this business as quietly as possible, until they have accumulated their “
line,”
which may run to several thousand shares and represent practically all of
the current floating supply of the issue. Then they wait. Presently,
professionals become suspicious and the rumor circulates that there is “
something
doing in PDQ,” or other canny bargain hunters discover the company’s
bright prospects, or chart analysts detect the signs of accumulation in the
stock’s action. Buyers now find that the stock is scarce; there are few
offerings on the books and they have to raise their bids to get it. An
advance starts.
The up-move gathers momentum as more and more traders are attracted by
rising prices. It is helped along by the good reports (higher earnings,
increased dividend, etc.) which our group knew were to be 58 Technical
Analysis of Stock Trends expected. Eventually, prices approach the level at
which they had planned
to take profits. But this operation, the “distribution” of their holdings,
may require even more patient and skillful handling than did the
accumulation.
Suppose they have 20,000 shares to unload. They cannot throw all on the
market at once; to do so would defeat their own ends immediately and,
perhaps, permanently. They must feed their line out little by little, trying
toavoid attention, feeling their way along and never permitting a surplus
of
offerings to kill the demand. If activity in their stock has reached a level
of, say, 2000 shares transferred daily, they may be able to dispose of 500
shares a day from their holdings without bringing the price down. (They will
be
competing, sooner or later, with others who have followed their play, who
bought lower down and will be ready to take profits as soon as the advance
shows signs of weakening.) So they start to sell when the rising Trend
appears to have attained maximum momentum, or as it nears their price
objective, but well before it has reached its probable limit, and they push
out their shares as rapidly as buyers will take them.
Before long, as a rule — before they have distributed their entire line —
a lull in demand will occur. Perhaps prospective buyers sense the increase
in supply. A reaction develops. Our group quickly ceases selling, withdraws
its offers, perhaps even buys back a few shares to support prices if they
threaten to drop too far. With supply temporarily held off the market, the
decline halts and the advance resumes. Our group lets it proceed this time
until it carries prices into new high ground; this reassures other holders
and brings in more buyers. As soon as the pot is once again merrily boiling,
distribution is started anew and, if the maneuver has been well directed,
completed in perhaps 2 or 3 weeks, before the second wave of demand has
been exhausted.
Our group is now out of its stock with a nice profit; its 20,000 shares
have passed into other hands. If they gauged the market correctly and
distributed their line at a price about as high as the situation would bear,
demand will have been satiated for a long time to come. Prices will probably
first drift back to somewhere near the level where they were supported on
the previous dip, then rally feebly on the strength of a little new buying
from traders who were waiting for just such a Minor Reaction, meet sales
from
other traders who failed to seize the opportunity to take their profits on
the preceding volume Top and are now anxious to get out, and then break down
into a decline of Intermediate or Major proportions.
technical analysis of stock trends by John Murphy, 看看头肩形成的原因。大家
请自行体会。
小股票如RMTI, KITE, CERS, XGTI, MCP, SIGA, ECYT, PLUG, FCEL, 就要看"庄家克星
"，TA作用微乎甚微。本蝌蚪也在研究中。 感觉新型能源小股短期内有起色的可能不大。
--本人蝌蚪，只是想提醒一下。来股板后受益匪浅，即使娱乐篇也可以怡情。希望有所
帮助。
从TA 书上page 57 找到的，不多，不算侵犯版权， 呵呵。
Time Required to Reverse Trend
But we do not need to lean on a racing automobile analogy to explain why
it takes time (and volume and price action) to produce an important Trend
Reversal. The logic of it is plain enough, if we take but a moment to
examine it. We can do so most easily by describing what might have (and,
doubtless,
many times has) happened in specific terms. Suppose a certain well-informed
and well-financed coterie (EN9: A congerie of mutual funds, for
example.) decides that the shares of a certain company, now selling around
40, are cheap, that this company’s affairs are progressing so
satisfactorily
that, before long, it will attract the attention of many investors and its
stock will be in demand at much higher levels, perhaps at 60 or 65. Our
group
realizes that if they manage their market operations skillfully, if nothing
unforeseen intervenes to upset their calculations, they can “take” 20
points out of the situation. So they proceed to buy in all offerings, going
about
this business as quietly as possible, until they have accumulated their “
line,”
which may run to several thousand shares and represent practically all of
the current floating supply of the issue. Then they wait. Presently,
professionals become suspicious and the rumor circulates that there is “
something
doing in PDQ,” or other canny bargain hunters discover the company’s
bright prospects, or chart analysts detect the signs of accumulation in the
stock’s action. Buyers now find that the stock is scarce; there are few
offerings on the books and they have to raise their bids to get it. An
advance starts.
The up-move gathers momentum as more and more traders are attracted by
rising prices. It is helped along by the good reports (higher earnings,
increased dividend, etc.) which our group knew were to be 58 Technical
Analysis of Stock Trends expected. Eventually, prices approach the level at
which they had planned
to take profits. But this operation, the “distribution” of their holdings,
may require even more patient and skillful handling than did the
accumulation.
Suppose they have 20,000 shares to unload. They cannot throw all on the
market at once; to do so would defeat their own ends immediately and,
perhaps, permanently. They must feed their line out little by little, trying
toavoid attention, feeling their way along and never permitting a surplus
of
offerings to kill the demand. If activity in their stock has reached a level
of, say, 2000 shares transferred daily, they may be able to dispose of 500
shares a day from their holdings without bringing the price down. (They will
be
competing, sooner or later, with others who have followed their play, who
bought lower down and will be ready to take profits as soon as the advance
shows signs of weakening.) So they start to sell when the rising Trend
appears to have attained maximum momentum, or as it nears their price
objective, but well before it has reached its probable limit, and they push
out their shares as rapidly as buyers will take them.
Before long, as a rule — before they have distributed their entire line —
a lull in demand will occur. Perhaps prospective buyers sense the increase
in supply. A reaction develops. Our group quickly ceases selling, withdraws
its offers, perhaps even buys back a few shares to support prices if they
threaten to drop too far. With supply temporarily held off the market, the
decline halts and the advance resumes. Our group lets it proceed this time
until it carries prices into new high ground; this reassures other holders
and brings in more buyers. As soon as the pot is once again merrily boiling,
distribution is started anew and, if the maneuver has been well directed,
completed in perhaps 2 or 3 weeks, before the second wave of demand has
been exhausted.
Our group is now out of its stock with a nice profit; its 20,000 shares
have passed into other hands. If they gauged the market correctly and
distributed their line at a price about as high as the situation would bear,
demand will have been satiated for a long time to come. Prices will probably
first drift back to somewhere near the level where they were supported on
the previous dip, then rally feebly on the strength of a little new buying
from traders who were waiting for just such a Minor Reaction, meet sales
from
other traders who failed to seize the opportunity to take their profits on
the preceding volume Top and are now anxious to get out, and then break down
into a decline of Intermediate or Major proportions.
