p*7
2 楼
FAS for sure if you're bullish on financials.
r*d
3 楼
Could you explain why you are bullish on financials? Note that. Buffet and 3
big banks are like 50% of the xlf. I am xlf holder. But i don't see
positive outlook for rest of the year unless there aee more rate hikes and
degregulation
【在 p**********7 的大作中提到】
: FAS for sure if you're bullish on financials.
big banks are like 50% of the xlf. I am xlf holder. But i don't see
positive outlook for rest of the year unless there aee more rate hikes and
degregulation
【在 p**********7 的大作中提到】
: FAS for sure if you're bullish on financials.
v*8
4 楼
ETF is the way to go when the entire sector is undervalued, or the entire
sector will go up a lot in the next 6-18 months.
Financial XLF is not the case now, some of banks already showed
overvaluation last year, such as WFC (before the account scandal exposed).
Now it is the time to go with the one that has not gone up a lot, has good
fundamental, and still undervalued. I think C is the one that has potential
to go up to $70 level to catch up the BAC and JPM(BAC or JPM will be around
their current 52wk high level in the next 12 months).
You will see what I mean when Federal reserve releases CCAR next month, and
their approved capital return program.
By the way, Buffet's pick for the financial was good long time ago, may be
15-20 years back. He somehow too much fall in love what he selected, caused
his financial stocks are under performed in the last 2 years.
His financial sector would/could perform much better if
* He switched all his WFC to JPM, BAC or C when the WFC news was just
released last year.
* He switched AXP to V or C when the Costco news was just released.
My credit card monthly bill is around 1.5-2K, used to be on all AXP/Costco
card. Now all on C/Visa card. I have several friends like this too because
we do go to the Costco weekly basis, and just keep using the same credit
card when shopping somewhere else. Just think about how much AXP revenue
loss from its Costco business. I think AXP around $80 is the peak in the
next 12 months.
sector will go up a lot in the next 6-18 months.
Financial XLF is not the case now, some of banks already showed
overvaluation last year, such as WFC (before the account scandal exposed).
Now it is the time to go with the one that has not gone up a lot, has good
fundamental, and still undervalued. I think C is the one that has potential
to go up to $70 level to catch up the BAC and JPM(BAC or JPM will be around
their current 52wk high level in the next 12 months).
You will see what I mean when Federal reserve releases CCAR next month, and
their approved capital return program.
By the way, Buffet's pick for the financial was good long time ago, may be
15-20 years back. He somehow too much fall in love what he selected, caused
his financial stocks are under performed in the last 2 years.
His financial sector would/could perform much better if
* He switched all his WFC to JPM, BAC or C when the WFC news was just
released last year.
* He switched AXP to V or C when the Costco news was just released.
My credit card monthly bill is around 1.5-2K, used to be on all AXP/Costco
card. Now all on C/Visa card. I have several friends like this too because
we do go to the Costco weekly basis, and just keep using the same credit
card when shopping somewhere else. Just think about how much AXP revenue
loss from its Costco business. I think AXP around $80 is the peak in the
next 12 months.
p*7
5 楼
Good analysis. I don't hold XLF or FAS, which have out-run for the past year
. No mid-term know momentum for now until probably a year or so...
. No mid-term know momentum for now until probably a year or so...
f*s
6 楼
要搏整个加息周期对银行行业的影响，买XLF即可。至于除了beta还想alpha
，有这个精力不如去研究high tech的股票，因为银行的报表特别复杂，有少金融衍
生品，而且还有不少表外业务，risk相当大。WFC之所以溢价高，是因为majority of
Financial analysts认为它的报表简单，盈利方式稳定，风险比小。感觉金融市场没出
大事很久了，需要提防个股的event risk，这个基本防不胜防
本人申明，本人有XLF也有WFC，但都是去年买的
，有这个精力不如去研究high tech的股票，因为银行的报表特别复杂，有少金融衍
生品，而且还有不少表外业务，risk相当大。WFC之所以溢价高，是因为majority of
Financial analysts认为它的报表简单，盈利方式稳定，风险比小。感觉金融市场没出
大事很久了，需要提防个股的event risk，这个基本防不胜防
本人申明，本人有XLF也有WFC，但都是去年买的
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