国内有一些人民币，现在是不是该兑换美元出来了? (转载) - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

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国内有一些人民币，现在是不是该兑换美元出来了? (转载)

国内有一些人民币，现在是不是该兑换美元出来了? (转载)# WaterWorld - 未名水世界

t*g2011-09-25 07:09

1 楼

【以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区】
发信人: thanksgiving (###), 信区: Stock
标题: 国内有一些人民币，现在是不是该兑换美元出来了?
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Sep 25 20:47:13 2011, 美东)
现在有人民币在国内的，是不是该逐步换成美元了？看着人民币汇率堪忧啊。搞不好哪
天人民币挺不住了大跌。

p*w2011-09-25 07:09

2 楼

人民币很古怪……对内贬值，对外升值，看你怎么办

【在 t**********g 的大作中提到】

: 【以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区】
: 发信人: thanksgiving (###), 信区: Stock
: 标题: 国内有一些人民币，现在是不是该兑换美元出来了?
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Sep 25 20:47:13 2011, 美东)
: 现在有人民币在国内的，是不是该逐步换成美元了？看着人民币汇率堪忧啊。搞不好哪
: 天人民币挺不住了大跌。

V*B2011-09-25 07:09

3 楼

还没到时候呢
我觉得还可以观望几个月
现在通胀的这么厉害，卖房也不是不卖也不是

【在 t**********g 的大作中提到】

t*g2011-09-25 07:09

4 楼

上周人民币已经大跌了，老兄

【在 V******B 的大作中提到】

: 还没到时候呢
: 我觉得还可以观望几个月
: 现在通胀的这么厉害，卖房也不是不卖也不是

m*l2011-09-25 07:09

5 楼

exchange rate vs inflation.
different concept

【在 p*********w 的大作中提到】

: 人民币很古怪……对内贬值，对外升值，看你怎么办

V*B2011-09-25 07:09

6 楼

美国经济现在也不好，怎么波动还不知道呢
美国肯定还要施压的

【在 t**********g 的大作中提到】

: 上周人民币已经大跌了，老兄

r*l2011-09-25 07:09

7 楼

这种内跌外涨得趋势不能持久。否则过不了多久卖掉北京的房子就可以买下整个美国了。

【在 m********l 的大作中提到】

: exchange rate vs inflation.
: different concept

m*l2011-09-25 07:09

8 楼

why not?
well, yes, you are right.
eventually it won't last, eventually they will have to unpeg/appreciate
against US dollar.
But they can still last for a long time
That's the whole point:
中国政府硬要说人民币值那么少的美元
为了维持这关系，中国政府要拼命的印钱
他们要印的是:
% money supply growth = % internal GDP growth + % US internal growth.
不印那么多的话，人民币就出现缺少现象，整个经济会可能停止交易而导致瘫痪

了。

【在 r*****l 的大作中提到】

: 这种内跌外涨得趋势不能持久。否则过不了多久卖掉北京的房子就可以买下整个美国了。

l*k2011-09-25 07:09

9 楼

是美元因为OT升值了，人民币不愿意跟。过几天qe3出来之后，人民币会回来的。

【在 t**********g 的大作中提到】

: 上周人民币已经大跌了，老兄

p*d2011-09-25 07:09

10 楼

美金最近大漲，不用美金換人民幣，卻反向操作，難道目標是賠錢嗎？

【在 t**********g 的大作中提到】

: 上周人民币已经大跌了，老兄

p*n2011-09-25 07:09

11 楼

就跟以前的日本一樣
要記得在崩盤前賣出就成了

了。

【在 r*****l 的大作中提到】

: 这种内跌外涨得趋势不能持久。否则过不了多久卖掉北京的房子就可以买下整个美国了。

x*o2011-09-25 07:09

12 楼

only if you do not believe in purchase power parity or even relative ppp

【在 m********l 的大作中提到】

: exchange rate vs inflation.
: different concept

m*l2011-09-25 07:09

13 楼

huh?
don't apply to China.
Everything is fixed/influenced by the government.
e.g. farmer's produce price

【在 x******o 的大作中提到】

: only if you do not believe in purchase power parity or even relative ppp

r*l2011-09-25 07:09

14 楼

At least I cannot time the market right. Maybe now is right before crash?
Who knows.
Look at US in 2008. The market turned direction very quickly.

【在 p***n 的大作中提到】

: 就跟以前的日本一樣
: 要記得在崩盤前賣出就成了
:
: 了。

r*l2011-09-25 07:09

15 楼

The bad thing is that we don't know how long the "long time" will last. It
can be a month, or years.
And it small fish like me can smell bad, then it might be already too late
to react.

【在 m********l 的大作中提到】

: why not?
: well, yes, you are right.
: eventually it won't last, eventually they will have to unpeg/appreciate
: against US dollar.
: But they can still last for a long time
: That's the whole point:
: 中国政府硬要说人民币值那么少的美元
: 为了维持这关系，中国政府要拼命的印钱
: 他们要印的是:
: % money supply growth = % internal GDP growth + % US internal growth.

p*i2011-09-25 07:09

16 楼

Even if you do, it does not apply to China, because the RMB exchange rate is
controlled by the government.

【在 x******o 的大作中提到】

: only if you do not believe in purchase power parity or even relative ppp

s*a2011-09-25 07:09

17 楼

If you do believe in purchase power parity, that will exactly
explain at this stage why RMB can have inflation and appreciation
at the same time.
I am not saying it will last forever, but the existence of this
phenomenon in a fast growing country is inevitable.

【在 x******o 的大作中提到】

: only if you do not believe in purchase power parity or even relative ppp

s*a2011-09-25 07:09

18 楼

Well, put it in a simple way ---
inflation + appreciation = some constant.
This 'some constant' is determined by lots of economic factors,
especially the growth rate, but definitely out of the government's
control.
On the left of the equation, the government can pick one to
control, but it cannot control both at the same time.
In China, they decide to keep appreciation under control, that
is exactly why you see the inflation is out of control.

is

【在 p***i 的大作中提到】

: Even if you do, it does not apply to China, because the RMB exchange rate is
: controlled by the government.

p*n2011-09-25 07:09

19 楼

你想
我要算得準
還用在這邊瞎聊嗎?
咱們這種沒有內線的
是沒法賺最後的百分之二十的
房價漲了四倍就可以脫手了
後面就算還有三倍
輪不到你賺

【在 r*****l 的大作中提到】

: At least I cannot time the market right. Maybe now is right before crash?
: Who knows.
: Look at US in 2008. The market turned direction very quickly.

m*l2011-09-25 07:09

20 楼

lol
so, what the heck is some constant? same for every country?
i think this theory is wrong.
people produce economic values (but, yes, not all economic values), that's
why economics grow

【在 s**********a 的大作中提到】

: Well, put it in a simple way ---
: inflation + appreciation = some constant.
: This 'some constant' is determined by lots of economic factors,
: especially the growth rate, but definitely out of the government's
: control.
: On the left of the equation, the government can pick one to
: control, but it cannot control both at the same time.
: In China, they decide to keep appreciation under control, that
: is exactly why you see the inflation is out of control.
:

s*a2011-09-25 07:09

21 楼

The point is not about how to get this constant or even what
it is. It's definitely not same for every country and it will
change over time for each country as well.
If you really think about it, it's actually more related to
how countries move closer or away from purchase power parity.
In the case of US and China, there used to be a huge purchase
power disparity, and as China is catching up quickly, this
disparity is diminishing.
The point is the government cannot control appreciation and
inflation at the same time when the purchase power disparity
is diminishing.

【在 m********l 的大作中提到】

: lol
: so, what the heck is some constant? same for every country?
: i think this theory is wrong.
: people produce economic values (but, yes, not all economic values), that's
: why economics grow

n*u2011-09-25 07:09

22 楼

快跌啊
人民币太挺。。。。。。。。。。

【在 t**********g 的大作中提到】

: 上周人民币已经大跌了，老兄