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Our office just came back from a discussion session here in Washington, DC
with Charles Oppenheim. Mr. Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and
Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State. For many, he is simply
known as the person responsible for the monthly and annual visa number
allocations for family- and employment-based green cards. He is also the
person who prepares and publishes the monthly visa bulletin which is highly
anticipated every month.
We are asked on a daily basis by our clients to provide visa bulletin
predictions and when a particular priority date may become current. As a
result, on behalf of our clients, we appreciate the opportunity Mr.
Oppenheim has afforded us to get some advance sense of the movement of the
priority dates and also on short- and long-term immigrant visa trends.
Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s Key Points
EB-2 China and India will advance significantly over the next few visa
bulletins. A possible slowdown (or retrogression) may come in the summer of
2012. EB-3 China and, specifically, India, will move very slowly and this
category is “ridiculously” oversubscribed — very long times to be
expected. Family-based dates will advance gradually.
General Visa Number Trends
Mr. Oppenheim reiterated the fact that in the employment-based context, each
green card application case is “larger” than previously expected and
instead of one visa number, if often includes two or three (because many
primary beneficiaries have married and have children). As a result, and in
recognition of the fact that many EB-3 India and China candidates are now
eligible for and applying under the EB-2 category, Mr. Oppenheim noted that
the EB-3 visa numbers are expected to remain oversubscribed and to move
slowly forward.
However, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2
China and India significantly over the next few months.
With respect to family-based cases, Mr. Oppenheim noted that the demand,
especially in the FB2 category has exceeded his expectations after the sharp
forward movement at the end of 2010. This sharp forward movement has
generated a significant demand for FB2 preference category visas and he has
had to retrogress significantly in order to control demand. He indicated
that slow forward movement is expected.
On a more general level, Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance
the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year (October, November
and December visa bulletins) and then, as he is able to gauge demand for a
particular preference category, adjust accordingly by either slowing down or
retrogressing (if demand is high) or advancing even more (is demand turns
out to be low).
Visa Bulletin Predictions – Employment-Based
Mr. Oppenheim was able to provide some predictions and expectations for
movement of visa numbers over the next few months. Please note that these
are short-term predictions and depending on the number of applications as a
result of the next few months’ visa numbers, the rate of cutoff date
movement may change.
EB-2 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to remain current
throughout the fiscal year.
EB-2 China and EB-2 India. These two categories are where the most action
is going to be over the next few months. Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he
expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the
next few visa bulletins. It is possible that the December 2011 Visa
Bulletin would advance EB-2 India and China to at least March 1, 2008 or
even further. Similar forward movement may be expected in the January 2012
and February 2012 Visa Bulletins. Mr. Oppenheim cautioned, however,
that if there is high demand (number of filings) in the EB-2 category, he
may hold or even retrogress towards the summer of 2012. He noted that
there is usually a 4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment
application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated —
this means that EB-2 India and China I-485 applications filed in the fall
will be need visa numbers in spring/summer of 2012 and this is when
retrogression may happen.
EB-3 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to move gradually
slightly forward for the next few visa bulletins — anticipated forward
movement of 3 to 4 weeks per month.
EB-3 China. This category is expected to move slowly forward – by 1-3
weeks per month for the next few months.
EB-3 India. Unfortunately, this category is, according to Mr. Oppenheim, “
ridiculously oversubscribed” and forward movement, if any, will be very
slow. This category is expected to remain unchanged or to move very
slowly forward (by a 1-2 weeks or so). This is mainly caused by the fact
that there are simply too many EB-3 India applicants waiting for a visa
number to become available. Mr. Oppenheim suggested that since the summer
of 2007, no new EB-3 India cases have been filed and there is a significant
number of EB-3 India candidates waiting for the priority dates to move
forward.
EB-3 India and China – 70 Years Wait for Green Card?
There have been a number of recent articles and comments on the possibility
that Indian and Chinese applicants who are in the EB-3 category may be
facing a 70-year wait to obtain a visa number. Mr. Oppenheim’s reaction:
that this is “plausible”.
As a background, according to a recent report, since the majority of
employment-based green card filings are from India and China, the current
per-country limit (which restricts the number of green cards awarded to any
country to 7% of the total) places a ceiling on how many EB-3 green cards
can be approved every year. For Indians, the limit of EB-3 green cards
that can be issued every year is fewer than 3,000. The estimate (
generally confirmed by Mr. Oppenheim) of the pending EB-3 cases is somewhere
around 210,000 (primary EB-3 candidates plus family members). As a result
, a simple calculation shows that it may take around 70 years for an EB-3
India candidate to obtain a green card.
Unfortunately, the estimates were generally confirmed by Mr. Oppenheim who,
while not specifically endorsing the 70-year wait period, confirmed that EB-
3 India will be very slow going forward due to very heavy demand. EB-3
China is in a very similar situation, even though the demand numbers are
proportionally lower.
Visa Bulletin Predictions – Family-Based
Mr. Oppenheim was also able to provide some predictions and expectations for
movement of the family-based visa numbers over the next few months. Unlike
the employment-based visa numbers, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that the family-
based visa numbers are likely to be fairly predictable.
FB 2A. According to Mr. Oppenheim, this family-based category has shown a
high demand as a result of the sudden forward movement at the end of 2010
and, as a result, had to be retrogressed. Now that the demand is fairly
predictable, a gradual forward movement of 3-6 weeks per month is to be
expected.
FB 2B and FB3. Forward movement in the 2B category is expected to be 1-2
weeks per month.
FB4. Forward movement of about one month per month is to be expected.
Conclusion
Mr. Oppenheim’s comments are extremely helpful to get a sense of the visa
cutoff dates over the next few months. Overall, Mr. Oppenheim’s comments
are likely to create some mixed feelings among our employment-based clients.
Although EB-2 is likely to move forward significantly over the next few
months, the long term prospects of EB-3 China and India are not good.
Our office is prepared to handle the anticipated significant forward
movement in the EB-2 China and India categories. Please do not hesitate
to contact us if we can review your case or answer any questions. We also
invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive
timely updates on this and related topics. Finally, if you already haven’
t, please consider our Visa Bulletin Predictions tool which provides
personalized predictions and charts helping you understand when a particular
priority date may become current and what are the movement patterns.
