Forecasts 2011: Airframers# Aviation - 航空航天
B*e
1 楼
组委会比赛没有结束就总结感谢发奖，
有没有考虑过最后一盘的荣誉之战选手的感受？
有没有考虑过菠菜参与人员的感受？
当初的规则有没有说明最后一盘在2：0的情况下不比了？
简直就是虎头蛇尾啊
有没有考虑过最后一盘的荣誉之战选手的感受？
有没有考虑过菠菜参与人员的感受？
当初的规则有没有说明最后一盘在2：0的情况下不比了？
简直就是虎头蛇尾啊
d*e
2 楼
By Niall O’Keeffe
For Airbus and Boeing, 2010 brought an orders bounceback that will surely
continue in 2011. In 2009, Airbus won 271 net orders while its US rival
notched just 142. But the relative buoyancy of the market in 2010 can be
gauged from tallies the airframers posted in November. For the first 11
months of the year, Airbus recorded 388 net orders. Boeing fared even better
, with a comparable figure of 489.
Regarding deliveries, the airframers' fortunes contrasted. After reaching
498 aircraft in 2009, Airbus delivered 461 in the first 11 months of 2010.
In mid-December, the European airframer insisted it was "on track for
another record year" with "total deliveries to be around 500". The precise
figure will be confirmed in mid-January.
Boeing, meanwhile, recorded 420 deliveries for the first 11 months, compared
with 481 in 2009. Richard Aboulafia, Teal Group's vice-president of
analysis, predicts that the coming 12 months "will see higher deliveries"
for commercial airframers. "Even if the market didn't want these planes,
both manufacturers need the revenue to pay for their very expensive new
development programmes," he says. "We should also see 747-8 and perhaps 787
deliveries help boost Boeing."
MORE DELIVERIES
The book-to-bill ratio was above one to one in 2010 and is likely to stay "
well above it" in 2011, Aboulafia says.
"So, at least superficially, it will look pretty good. But two things will
complicate that. One is a possible repeat of third-party finance inflating
orders, just as in 2010. That's not terrible, but it's somewhat speculative.
Also, we could see some [Airbus] A320neo orders that start to cannibalise
the existing backlog. If Boeing goes with a 737 re-engining, we could see
the same phenomenon there too."
Launched on 1 December, the A320neo was the long-awaited opening salvo in
the battle to produce the best answer to airlines' narrowbody needs. It
increases pressure on Boeing to commit to a re-engining of its cash-cow 737
types or plump for the riskier option of developing an all-new narrowbody
type. The latter option offers the promise of an efficiency boost, but in
what timeframe? With airlines' patience at a premium, re-engining looks more
likely to be the favoured option.
Canada's Bombardier Aerospace, which has edged into the single-aisle space
with its CSeries airliner, is also under pressure.
The Farnborough air show came and went without any new orders for the type,
and Bombardier is still to add to February's Republic Airways order, which
brought the CSeries' firm backlog to 90 aircraft. This context adds urgency
to the outcome of Gulf Air's three-way regional jet order contest, which
pits the CSeries against the Airbus A318 and Embraer E-Jets.
In October, Bombardier said it had conducted a successful test mating of an
advanced composite wing portion to a composite wing box. But the launch of
the A320neo has raised questions about the Bombardier type's commercial
prospects. In the damning verdict of Airbus's chief salesman, John Leahy: "
There is virtually no business case left for the CSeries." He says the
A320neo has the same number of seats and similar fuel burn, but a wider
fuselage and 1,200nm (2,200km) more range.
Bombardier has said that Airbus's re-engining move "changes nothing", and
that the CSeries can avail itself of "a considerable first-mover advantage"
by entering service in 2013. The A320neo is due to operate from spring 2016.
Bombardier will need to secure fresh CSeries business soon if it is to
dispel Leahy's notion that sales of the type have dried up. Airbus has said
it is discussing potential A320neo orders with airlines and lessors,
including AirAsia, GECAS, Indigo, International Lease Finance, Lufthansa and
Qatar Airways.
BUFFERS ERODED
Airbus's A350 XWB type is due to enter service in the second half of 2013,
but with programme buffers already eroded, it will be stunning if delays are
avoided. But in its A350 campaign, the airframer will progress from pre-
assembly at section and equipment level to the opening of the final assembly
line.
Wing assembly will begin at Airbus's North Factory in Broughton, UK. The
Rolls-Royce Trent XWB is due to fly, with A380 MSN001 as the testbed, in mid
-2011, and the iron-bird hydraulic/flight control system test rig is also
set to enter service this year.
The European airframer's list of 2011 targets does not stop there. It also
expects to begin manufacturing and flight-testing its "sharklet" wing-tip
extensions; reach 10,000 orders; and certificate a 235t A330-300 while
ramping up A330 production towards a goal of nine aircraft a month by 2012.
In June, Airbus delivered the first A330-200 freighter, to Etihad Airways.
Boeing missed a major deadline in 2010 by failing to deliver the first 787
widebody to Japan's All Nippon Airways. In August, the target shifted from
the end of the year to the middle of the first quarter of 2011, because of
engine-availability issues and the horizontal stabiliser needing inspections
and rework. Subsequently, an electrical fire aboard a 787 led to a
grounding of the test fleet.
In 2010, cancellations removed 41 787s from the Boeing backlog and turned
the type's net order total negative to five aircraft.
First delivery of Boeing's 747-8 freighter also slipped out of 2010. Launch
customer Cargolux is now set to receive its first in mid-2011. The delay
reflected a need to resolve the low-frequency vibration occurring in "
certain flight conditions". In addition, an inboard aileron actuator was not
working as expected.
PROGRAMME GLITCHES
Airbus is no stranger to programme glitches, and the A380's travails
continued into 2010. In May, Leahy conceded: "Airlines are making money with
it; unfortunately, we're not - but we will soon." For 2011, Airbus foresees
"ongoing ramp-up" in production of the type. China Southern and Korean
Airlines will join the ranks of A380 operators this year.
Meanwhile, the total production rate of Airbus's cash-cow A320 narrowbodies
is set to rise from 36 to 38 a month in August and to 40 in early 2012. The
plan foresees a final assembly line in China producing four aircraft a month
by the end of the year.
Boeing intends to lift 737 production from 31.5 to 35 a month by early 2012
and to 38 by the second quarter of 2013. Monthly output of 777s is to
increase from five to seven in mid-2011, and to 8.3 in the first quarter of
2013.
"We expect 2011 to be another good year for our industry," says Randy
Tinseth, vice-president of marketing at Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "We
project that the world economy will continue to expand, and that both
passenger and cargo traffic will grow above the long-term expected trend."
The International Air Transport Association is forecasting continued
profitability for airlines in 2011, notes Tinseth. "We don't forecast
expected orders, but clearly a good market for our customers means healthy
order levels for Boeing and growth in our services business," he adds.
In aircraft finance, 2011 will bring a need to adjust to the Organisation
for Economic Co-operation and Development's new aircraft sector
understanding agreement on export credits for civil aircraft, says Kostya
Zolotusky, managing director of capital markets at Boeing Capital. "In the
light of significant support provided by ECAs [export credit agencies] in
2009 and 2010 and the anticipated shift towards commercial finance in 2011,
we are going to see increased demand on all other aircraft-financing sources
," he says. "Commercial bank debt and capital markets are likely to absorb
the majority of the shift from ECA to commercial finance."
More widespread endorsement of the Cape Town Convention - which regulates
cross-border leasing of mobile assets - will also change the game, Zolotusky
adds.
"We anticipate continued growth in regional banking support for their
domestic airlines," he says. "But we believe capital markets will be the
most important source of innovation and liquidity over the next decade. New
structures to finance lessors, as well as the Cape Town treaty becoming
ubiquitous, should expand capital markets' role in aircraft finance."
For Airbus and Boeing, 2010 brought an orders bounceback that will surely
continue in 2011. In 2009, Airbus won 271 net orders while its US rival
notched just 142. But the relative buoyancy of the market in 2010 can be
gauged from tallies the airframers posted in November. For the first 11
months of the year, Airbus recorded 388 net orders. Boeing fared even better
, with a comparable figure of 489.
Regarding deliveries, the airframers' fortunes contrasted. After reaching
498 aircraft in 2009, Airbus delivered 461 in the first 11 months of 2010.
In mid-December, the European airframer insisted it was "on track for
another record year" with "total deliveries to be around 500". The precise
figure will be confirmed in mid-January.
Boeing, meanwhile, recorded 420 deliveries for the first 11 months, compared
with 481 in 2009. Richard Aboulafia, Teal Group's vice-president of
analysis, predicts that the coming 12 months "will see higher deliveries"
for commercial airframers. "Even if the market didn't want these planes,
both manufacturers need the revenue to pay for their very expensive new
development programmes," he says. "We should also see 747-8 and perhaps 787
deliveries help boost Boeing."
MORE DELIVERIES
The book-to-bill ratio was above one to one in 2010 and is likely to stay "
well above it" in 2011, Aboulafia says.
"So, at least superficially, it will look pretty good. But two things will
complicate that. One is a possible repeat of third-party finance inflating
orders, just as in 2010. That's not terrible, but it's somewhat speculative.
Also, we could see some [Airbus] A320neo orders that start to cannibalise
the existing backlog. If Boeing goes with a 737 re-engining, we could see
the same phenomenon there too."
Launched on 1 December, the A320neo was the long-awaited opening salvo in
the battle to produce the best answer to airlines' narrowbody needs. It
increases pressure on Boeing to commit to a re-engining of its cash-cow 737
types or plump for the riskier option of developing an all-new narrowbody
type. The latter option offers the promise of an efficiency boost, but in
what timeframe? With airlines' patience at a premium, re-engining looks more
likely to be the favoured option.
Canada's Bombardier Aerospace, which has edged into the single-aisle space
with its CSeries airliner, is also under pressure.
The Farnborough air show came and went without any new orders for the type,
and Bombardier is still to add to February's Republic Airways order, which
brought the CSeries' firm backlog to 90 aircraft. This context adds urgency
to the outcome of Gulf Air's three-way regional jet order contest, which
pits the CSeries against the Airbus A318 and Embraer E-Jets.
In October, Bombardier said it had conducted a successful test mating of an
advanced composite wing portion to a composite wing box. But the launch of
the A320neo has raised questions about the Bombardier type's commercial
prospects. In the damning verdict of Airbus's chief salesman, John Leahy: "
There is virtually no business case left for the CSeries." He says the
A320neo has the same number of seats and similar fuel burn, but a wider
fuselage and 1,200nm (2,200km) more range.
Bombardier has said that Airbus's re-engining move "changes nothing", and
that the CSeries can avail itself of "a considerable first-mover advantage"
by entering service in 2013. The A320neo is due to operate from spring 2016.
Bombardier will need to secure fresh CSeries business soon if it is to
dispel Leahy's notion that sales of the type have dried up. Airbus has said
it is discussing potential A320neo orders with airlines and lessors,
including AirAsia, GECAS, Indigo, International Lease Finance, Lufthansa and
Qatar Airways.
BUFFERS ERODED
Airbus's A350 XWB type is due to enter service in the second half of 2013,
but with programme buffers already eroded, it will be stunning if delays are
avoided. But in its A350 campaign, the airframer will progress from pre-
assembly at section and equipment level to the opening of the final assembly
line.
Wing assembly will begin at Airbus's North Factory in Broughton, UK. The
Rolls-Royce Trent XWB is due to fly, with A380 MSN001 as the testbed, in mid
-2011, and the iron-bird hydraulic/flight control system test rig is also
set to enter service this year.
The European airframer's list of 2011 targets does not stop there. It also
expects to begin manufacturing and flight-testing its "sharklet" wing-tip
extensions; reach 10,000 orders; and certificate a 235t A330-300 while
ramping up A330 production towards a goal of nine aircraft a month by 2012.
In June, Airbus delivered the first A330-200 freighter, to Etihad Airways.
Boeing missed a major deadline in 2010 by failing to deliver the first 787
widebody to Japan's All Nippon Airways. In August, the target shifted from
the end of the year to the middle of the first quarter of 2011, because of
engine-availability issues and the horizontal stabiliser needing inspections
and rework. Subsequently, an electrical fire aboard a 787 led to a
grounding of the test fleet.
In 2010, cancellations removed 41 787s from the Boeing backlog and turned
the type's net order total negative to five aircraft.
First delivery of Boeing's 747-8 freighter also slipped out of 2010. Launch
customer Cargolux is now set to receive its first in mid-2011. The delay
reflected a need to resolve the low-frequency vibration occurring in "
certain flight conditions". In addition, an inboard aileron actuator was not
working as expected.
PROGRAMME GLITCHES
Airbus is no stranger to programme glitches, and the A380's travails
continued into 2010. In May, Leahy conceded: "Airlines are making money with
it; unfortunately, we're not - but we will soon." For 2011, Airbus foresees
"ongoing ramp-up" in production of the type. China Southern and Korean
Airlines will join the ranks of A380 operators this year.
Meanwhile, the total production rate of Airbus's cash-cow A320 narrowbodies
is set to rise from 36 to 38 a month in August and to 40 in early 2012. The
plan foresees a final assembly line in China producing four aircraft a month
by the end of the year.
Boeing intends to lift 737 production from 31.5 to 35 a month by early 2012
and to 38 by the second quarter of 2013. Monthly output of 777s is to
increase from five to seven in mid-2011, and to 8.3 in the first quarter of
2013.
"We expect 2011 to be another good year for our industry," says Randy
Tinseth, vice-president of marketing at Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "We
project that the world economy will continue to expand, and that both
passenger and cargo traffic will grow above the long-term expected trend."
The International Air Transport Association is forecasting continued
profitability for airlines in 2011, notes Tinseth. "We don't forecast
expected orders, but clearly a good market for our customers means healthy
order levels for Boeing and growth in our services business," he adds.
In aircraft finance, 2011 will bring a need to adjust to the Organisation
for Economic Co-operation and Development's new aircraft sector
understanding agreement on export credits for civil aircraft, says Kostya
Zolotusky, managing director of capital markets at Boeing Capital. "In the
light of significant support provided by ECAs [export credit agencies] in
2009 and 2010 and the anticipated shift towards commercial finance in 2011,
we are going to see increased demand on all other aircraft-financing sources
," he says. "Commercial bank debt and capital markets are likely to absorb
the majority of the shift from ECA to commercial finance."
More widespread endorsement of the Cape Town Convention - which regulates
cross-border leasing of mobile assets - will also change the game, Zolotusky
adds.
"We anticipate continued growth in regional banking support for their
domestic airlines," he says. "But we believe capital markets will be the
most important source of innovation and liquidity over the next decade. New
structures to finance lessors, as well as the Cape Town treaty becoming
ubiquitous, should expand capital markets' role in aircraft finance."
D*l
3 楼
看选手怎么样选择，打不打对结果没有影响
你当最后一场裁判？
你当最后一场裁判？
F*r
4 楼
都说站着说话不腰疼
毛，还有叉着腰说话的主
那，啥是叉着腰说话的主？
就是鸡蛋里挑骨头乱tm喷的
【在 B*****e 的大作中提到】
: 组委会比赛没有结束就总结感谢发奖，
: 有没有考虑过最后一盘的荣誉之战选手的感受？
: 有没有考虑过菠菜参与人员的感受？
: 当初的规则有没有说明最后一盘在2：0的情况下不比了？
: 简直就是虎头蛇尾啊
毛，还有叉着腰说话的主
那，啥是叉着腰说话的主？
就是鸡蛋里挑骨头乱tm喷的
【在 B*****e 的大作中提到】
: 组委会比赛没有结束就总结感谢发奖，
: 有没有考虑过最后一盘的荣誉之战选手的感受？
: 有没有考虑过菠菜参与人员的感受？
: 当初的规则有没有说明最后一盘在2：0的情况下不比了？
: 简直就是虎头蛇尾啊
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