s*n
4 楼
while gold price is violate because the market is relatively small, I
don't see any strong reason to short gold.
1. physical demand is high by investors (although not consumers)
2. supply is shrinking.
3. Precious metals are the strongest market so far comparing with
stock, bond, agriculture, and oil.
4. why fight the trend anyway?
【在 t**3 的大作中提到】
: 我会在适当的时候卖空黄金
: $1000下方是个比较理想的位置,虽然我怀疑到不了1000就会倒跌了
don't see any strong reason to short gold.
1. physical demand is high by investors (although not consumers)
2. supply is shrinking.
3. Precious metals are the strongest market so far comparing with
stock, bond, agriculture, and oil.
4. why fight the trend anyway?
【在 t**3 的大作中提到】
: 我会在适当的时候卖空黄金
: $1000下方是个比较理想的位置,虽然我怀疑到不了1000就会倒跌了
t*3
5 楼
if you consider the ratio of gold/silver, you will find another answer
historically, the ratio is 16 on average. While the production ratio of
silver to gold is only 8 to 1, based on the data of recent year average.
Even you consider the ratio of gold/crude oil and many other commodities
on average in history, the gold is over-priced too much.
黄金白银的总储量比值也是1:8左右
现在1:60的比值如果不是黄金overpriced,就是白银太便宜了。考虑所有其它商品
和黄金的比价关系,黄金仍然是过于昂贵了。
personally, I hold silver as a substitute to avoid inflation, while I s
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: while gold price is violate because the market is relatively small, I
: don't see any strong reason to short gold.
: 1. physical demand is high by investors (although not consumers)
: 2. supply is shrinking.
: 3. Precious metals are the strongest market so far comparing with
: stock, bond, agriculture, and oil.
: 4. why fight the trend anyway?
historically, the ratio is 16 on average. While the production ratio of
silver to gold is only 8 to 1, based on the data of recent year average.
Even you consider the ratio of gold/crude oil and many other commodities
on average in history, the gold is over-priced too much.
黄金白银的总储量比值也是1:8左右
现在1:60的比值如果不是黄金overpriced,就是白银太便宜了。考虑所有其它商品
和黄金的比价关系,黄金仍然是过于昂贵了。
personally, I hold silver as a substitute to avoid inflation, while I s
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: while gold price is violate because the market is relatively small, I
: don't see any strong reason to short gold.
: 1. physical demand is high by investors (although not consumers)
: 2. supply is shrinking.
: 3. Precious metals are the strongest market so far comparing with
: stock, bond, agriculture, and oil.
: 4. why fight the trend anyway?
s*n
6 楼
For one thing, over-pricing can last a long time and go to extremes.
For another, there is some serious contango problem going on with
crude oil. I cannot say the oil price is unfair, but I am sure
somebody out there are really frustrated.
personally I don't see too much meaning in gold/silver ratio, because
silver is more an industrial metal nowsaday, while gold is not. However,
even it means something, it could also imply that the silver price is
low...
【在 t**3 的大作中提到】
: if you consider the ratio of gold/silver, you will find another answer
: historically, the ratio is 16 on average. While the production ratio of
: silver to gold is only 8 to 1, based on the data of recent year average.
: Even you consider the ratio of gold/crude oil and many other commodities
: on average in history, the gold is over-priced too much.
: 黄金白银的总储量比值也是1:8左右
: 现在1:60的比值如果不是黄金overpriced,就是白银太便宜了。考虑所有其它商品
: 和黄金的比价关系,黄金仍然是过于昂贵了。
: personally, I hold silver as a substitute to avoid inflation, while I s
For another, there is some serious contango problem going on with
crude oil. I cannot say the oil price is unfair, but I am sure
somebody out there are really frustrated.
personally I don't see too much meaning in gold/silver ratio, because
silver is more an industrial metal nowsaday, while gold is not. However,
even it means something, it could also imply that the silver price is
low...
【在 t**3 的大作中提到】
: if you consider the ratio of gold/silver, you will find another answer
: historically, the ratio is 16 on average. While the production ratio of
: silver to gold is only 8 to 1, based on the data of recent year average.
: Even you consider the ratio of gold/crude oil and many other commodities
: on average in history, the gold is over-priced too much.
: 黄金白银的总储量比值也是1:8左右
: 现在1:60的比值如果不是黄金overpriced,就是白银太便宜了。考虑所有其它商品
: 和黄金的比价关系,黄金仍然是过于昂贵了。
: personally, I hold silver as a substitute to avoid inflation, while I s
t*3
7 楼
你是对的,泡沫也可以吹的很大,但总有破裂的一天。
黄金和石油受各类资金操纵的情况更多,但联系各类商品的比价关系得出黄金价格过高
的结论还是非常公平的。
如果要规避通胀,可以考虑买入几种标的。买入黄金的同时,也买进白银和其它贵
金属。如果你相信黄金会不断新高,那可以考虑更为稀有的白金,因为白金的生成
量只有黄金的1/10,但是价格基本相等。
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: For one thing, over-pricing can last a long time and go to extremes.
: For another, there is some serious contango problem going on with
: crude oil. I cannot say the oil price is unfair, but I am sure
: somebody out there are really frustrated.
: personally I don't see too much meaning in gold/silver ratio, because
: silver is more an industrial metal nowsaday, while gold is not. However,
: even it means something, it could also imply that the silver price is
: low...
黄金和石油受各类资金操纵的情况更多,但联系各类商品的比价关系得出黄金价格过高
的结论还是非常公平的。
如果要规避通胀,可以考虑买入几种标的。买入黄金的同时,也买进白银和其它贵
金属。如果你相信黄金会不断新高,那可以考虑更为稀有的白金,因为白金的生成
量只有黄金的1/10,但是价格基本相等。
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: For one thing, over-pricing can last a long time and go to extremes.
: For another, there is some serious contango problem going on with
: crude oil. I cannot say the oil price is unfair, but I am sure
: somebody out there are really frustrated.
: personally I don't see too much meaning in gold/silver ratio, because
: silver is more an industrial metal nowsaday, while gold is not. However,
: even it means something, it could also imply that the silver price is
: low...
f*t
9 楼
so the oil price would be up or down?
thanks.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: For one thing, over-pricing can last a long time and go to extremes.
: For another, there is some serious contango problem going on with
: crude oil. I cannot say the oil price is unfair, but I am sure
: somebody out there are really frustrated.
: personally I don't see too much meaning in gold/silver ratio, because
: silver is more an industrial metal nowsaday, while gold is not. However,
: even it means something, it could also imply that the silver price is
: low...
y*a
16 楼
"黄金白银的总储量比值也是1:8左右"
where do u get this data? I highly doubt it is true.
still
two,
【在 t**3 的大作中提到】
: if you consider the ratio of gold/silver, you will find another answer
: historically, the ratio is 16 on average. While the production ratio of
: silver to gold is only 8 to 1, based on the data of recent year average.
: Even you consider the ratio of gold/crude oil and many other commodities
: on average in history, the gold is over-priced too much.
: 黄金白银的总储量比值也是1:8左右
: 现在1:60的比值如果不是黄金overpriced,就是白银太便宜了。考虑所有其它商品
: 和黄金的比价关系,黄金仍然是过于昂贵了。
: personally, I hold silver as a substitute to avoid inflation, while I s
where do u get this data? I highly doubt it is true.
still
two,
【在 t**3 的大作中提到】
: if you consider the ratio of gold/silver, you will find another answer
: historically, the ratio is 16 on average. While the production ratio of
: silver to gold is only 8 to 1, based on the data of recent year average.
: Even you consider the ratio of gold/crude oil and many other commodities
: on average in history, the gold is over-priced too much.
: 黄金白银的总储量比值也是1:8左右
: 现在1:60的比值如果不是黄金overpriced,就是白银太便宜了。考虑所有其它商品
: 和黄金的比价关系,黄金仍然是过于昂贵了。
: personally, I hold silver as a substitute to avoid inflation, while I s
g*g
20 楼
silver is between copper/gold, so it drops between copper/gold.
still
two,
【在 t**3 的大作中提到】
: if you consider the ratio of gold/silver, you will find another answer
: historically, the ratio is 16 on average. While the production ratio of
: silver to gold is only 8 to 1, based on the data of recent year average.
: Even you consider the ratio of gold/crude oil and many other commodities
: on average in history, the gold is over-priced too much.
: 黄金白银的总储量比值也是1:8左右
: 现在1:60的比值如果不是黄金overpriced,就是白银太便宜了。考虑所有其它商品
: 和黄金的比价关系,黄金仍然是过于昂贵了。
: personally, I hold silver as a substitute to avoid inflation, while I s
still
two,
【在 t**3 的大作中提到】
: if you consider the ratio of gold/silver, you will find another answer
: historically, the ratio is 16 on average. While the production ratio of
: silver to gold is only 8 to 1, based on the data of recent year average.
: Even you consider the ratio of gold/crude oil and many other commodities
: on average in history, the gold is over-priced too much.
: 黄金白银的总储量比值也是1:8左右
: 现在1:60的比值如果不是黄金overpriced,就是白银太便宜了。考虑所有其它商品
: 和黄金的比价关系,黄金仍然是过于昂贵了。
: personally, I hold silver as a substitute to avoid inflation, while I s
o*c
22 楼
sometimes, extreme gold/silver ratio shows the scare in the equity market.
Gold is not just a metal commodity like silver.
still
two,
【在 t**3 的大作中提到】
: if you consider the ratio of gold/silver, you will find another answer
: historically, the ratio is 16 on average. While the production ratio of
: silver to gold is only 8 to 1, based on the data of recent year average.
: Even you consider the ratio of gold/crude oil and many other commodities
: on average in history, the gold is over-priced too much.
: 黄金白银的总储量比值也是1:8左右
: 现在1:60的比值如果不是黄金overpriced,就是白银太便宜了。考虑所有其它商品
: 和黄金的比价关系,黄金仍然是过于昂贵了。
: personally, I hold silver as a substitute to avoid inflation, while I s
Gold is not just a metal commodity like silver.
still
two,
【在 t**3 的大作中提到】
: if you consider the ratio of gold/silver, you will find another answer
: historically, the ratio is 16 on average. While the production ratio of
: silver to gold is only 8 to 1, based on the data of recent year average.
: Even you consider the ratio of gold/crude oil and many other commodities
: on average in history, the gold is over-priced too much.
: 黄金白银的总储量比值也是1:8左右
: 现在1:60的比值如果不是黄金overpriced,就是白银太便宜了。考虑所有其它商品
: 和黄金的比价关系,黄金仍然是过于昂贵了。
: personally, I hold silver as a substitute to avoid inflation, while I s
K*l
26 楼
even in that case, inflation will bring Dow up to 10000+, so gold will be
at
least 3000
Since US can't afford a second Paul Volcker, as long as real interest rate
is less than 5%, gold will continue to go up.
If gold standard comes back, 50000$/oz is a piece of cake.
【在 p******h 的大作中提到】
: I am predicting a DOW/GOLD ratio of 3, so maybe DOW 6000, GOLD 2000
: if US dollar doesn't collapse totally.
at
least 3000
Since US can't afford a second Paul Volcker, as long as real interest rate
is less than 5%, gold will continue to go up.
If gold standard comes back, 50000$/oz is a piece of cake.
【在 p******h 的大作中提到】
: I am predicting a DOW/GOLD ratio of 3, so maybe DOW 6000, GOLD 2000
: if US dollar doesn't collapse totally.
m*h
27 楼
hehe, when gold standard comes back, government loses power to inflate any
enonomy, like now, japanese style deep deflation is expected.
【在 K******l 的大作中提到】
: even in that case, inflation will bring Dow up to 10000+, so gold will be
: at
: least 3000
: Since US can't afford a second Paul Volcker, as long as real interest rate
: is less than 5%, gold will continue to go up.
: If gold standard comes back, 50000$/oz is a piece of cake.
enonomy, like now, japanese style deep deflation is expected.
【在 K******l 的大作中提到】
: even in that case, inflation will bring Dow up to 10000+, so gold will be
: at
: least 3000
: Since US can't afford a second Paul Volcker, as long as real interest rate
: is less than 5%, gold will continue to go up.
: If gold standard comes back, 50000$/oz is a piece of cake.
K*l
28 楼
that deflation will be a new currency with gold standard, then deflation.
Now, if we want to go back to gold standard, dollar has to go deeply down to
let gold skyrocket.
And actually Japan is not deflation, It exports inflation. carry-trade based
on JPY contributes a lot to commodities bull and financial derivative bull.
Now it collapses.
People criticize Greenspan for his low interest rate. Ben "cures" this by
doing exactly the same mistake Greenspan did.Lower interest rate, roaring M0
.
If US
【在 m*h 的大作中提到】
: hehe, when gold standard comes back, government loses power to inflate any
: enonomy, like now, japanese style deep deflation is expected.
Now, if we want to go back to gold standard, dollar has to go deeply down to
let gold skyrocket.
And actually Japan is not deflation, It exports inflation. carry-trade based
on JPY contributes a lot to commodities bull and financial derivative bull.
Now it collapses.
People criticize Greenspan for his low interest rate. Ben "cures" this by
doing exactly the same mistake Greenspan did.Lower interest rate, roaring M0
.
If US
【在 m*h 的大作中提到】
: hehe, when gold standard comes back, government loses power to inflate any
: enonomy, like now, japanese style deep deflation is expected.
f*t
29 楼
He wants to be. But not sure he can or not :)
When was the gold confiscation rule gone?
this rule is very interesting one, since gold is a private property.
【在 K******l 的大作中提到】
: that deflation will be a new currency with gold standard, then deflation.
: Now, if we want to go back to gold standard, dollar has to go deeply down to
: let gold skyrocket.
: And actually Japan is not deflation, It exports inflation. carry-trade based
: on JPY contributes a lot to commodities bull and financial derivative bull.
: Now it collapses.
: People criticize Greenspan for his low interest rate. Ben "cures" this by
: doing exactly the same mistake Greenspan did.Lower interest rate, roaring M0
: .
: If US
g*g
30 楼
be aware of setback
t*3
31 楼
Monthly update:
closed below 900 today.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: while gold price is violate because the market is relatively small, I
: don't see any strong reason to short gold.
: 1. physical demand is high by investors (although not consumers)
: 2. supply is shrinking.
: 3. Precious metals are the strongest market so far comparing with
: stock, bond, agriculture, and oil.
: 4. why fight the trend anyway?
closed below 900 today.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: while gold price is violate because the market is relatively small, I
: don't see any strong reason to short gold.
: 1. physical demand is high by investors (although not consumers)
: 2. supply is shrinking.
: 3. Precious metals are the strongest market so far comparing with
: stock, bond, agriculture, and oil.
: 4. why fight the trend anyway?
m*r
32 楼
如何买白金? PTM?PGM?
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