p*e
5 楼
我怎么觉得今年Carmel valley的房子比去年贵了不少啊.你是哪里拿到的数据?
w*y
7 楼
感觉是不准的,see below
for Home Sales Recorded in June 2011
% Change is for the median price from the same month last year
Resale
Single-Family
North County Coast 409 $502,500 -3.37%
Cardiff 92007 14 $650,000 -14.75%
Carlsbad NW 92008 17 $490,000 -20.65%
Carlsbad SE 92009 44 $725,000 11.54%
Carlsbad NE 92010 16 $438,750 -14.81%
Carlsbad SW 92011 26 $680,000 7.51%
Carmel Valley 92130 39 $855,000 -15.76%
Del Mar 92014 19 $1,250,000 18.76%
Encinitas 92024 42 $649,250 6.43%
Oceanside S 92054 26 $375,500 10.85%
Oceanside E 92056 66 $300,000 3.45%
Oceanside N 92057 68 $279,750 -9.76%
Oceanside (Central) 92058 11 $265,000 -25.98%
Solana Beach 92075 21 $945,000 -37.62%
【在 p*****e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 我怎么觉得今年Carmel valley的房子比去年贵了不少啊.你是哪里拿到的数据?
for Home Sales Recorded in June 2011
% Change is for the median price from the same month last year
Resale
Single-Family
North County Coast 409 $502,500 -3.37%
Cardiff 92007 14 $650,000 -14.75%
Carlsbad NW 92008 17 $490,000 -20.65%
Carlsbad SE 92009 44 $725,000 11.54%
Carlsbad NE 92010 16 $438,750 -14.81%
Carlsbad SW 92011 26 $680,000 7.51%
Carmel Valley 92130 39 $855,000 -15.76%
Del Mar 92014 19 $1,250,000 18.76%
Encinitas 92024 42 $649,250 6.43%
Oceanside S 92054 26 $375,500 10.85%
Oceanside E 92056 66 $300,000 3.45%
Oceanside N 92057 68 $279,750 -9.76%
Oceanside (Central) 92058 11 $265,000 -25.98%
Solana Beach 92075 21 $945,000 -37.62%
【在 p*****e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 我怎么觉得今年Carmel valley的房子比去年贵了不少啊.你是哪里拿到的数据?
p*e
8 楼
一个问题:这个median price是某zipcode所有房子的median price,还是卖出去的房子
的median price?如果是前者,说明房子确实是跌了.如果是后者,说明卖出去的低价房子
多了,高价房子少了,大家的购买力减弱了,但不能说明房价跌了.
的median price?如果是前者,说明房子确实是跌了.如果是后者,说明卖出去的低价房子
多了,高价房子少了,大家的购买力减弱了,但不能说明房价跌了.
K*y
9 楼
我感觉大于一米的高端房是跌的挺多的
老中能负担的起得八九十万的没怎么跌
【在 w******y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 感觉是不准的,see below
: for Home Sales Recorded in June 2011
: % Change is for the median price from the same month last year
: Resale
: Single-Family
: North County Coast 409 $502,500 -3.37%
: Cardiff 92007 14 $650,000 -14.75%
: Carlsbad NW 92008 17 $490,000 -20.65%
: Carlsbad SE 92009 44 $725,000 11.54%
: Carlsbad NE 92010 16 $438,750 -14.81%
老中能负担的起得八九十万的没怎么跌
【在 w******y 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 感觉是不准的,see below
: for Home Sales Recorded in June 2011
: % Change is for the median price from the same month last year
: Resale
: Single-Family
: North County Coast 409 $502,500 -3.37%
: Cardiff 92007 14 $650,000 -14.75%
: Carlsbad NW 92008 17 $490,000 -20.65%
: Carlsbad SE 92009 44 $725,000 11.54%
: Carlsbad NE 92010 16 $438,750 -14.81%
a*a
15 楼
This house 5937 Pebble Hill Ct , CA 91739 was foreclosed since 2009. We
stopped by and saw there were people living in the house. Does bank rent REO
house out?
stopped by and saw there were people living in the house. Does bank rent REO
house out?
Y*o
17 楼
That was all San Diego zip codes - which can not be generalized to be "南加
好区".
No way in Irvine to see -15% in one year.
【在 w******y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 感觉是不准的,see below
: for Home Sales Recorded in June 2011
: % Change is for the median price from the same month last year
: Resale
: Single-Family
: North County Coast 409 $502,500 -3.37%
: Cardiff 92007 14 $650,000 -14.75%
: Carlsbad NW 92008 17 $490,000 -20.65%
: Carlsbad SE 92009 44 $725,000 11.54%
: Carlsbad NE 92010 16 $438,750 -14.81%
好区".
No way in Irvine to see -15% in one year.
【在 w******y 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 感觉是不准的,see below
: for Home Sales Recorded in June 2011
: % Change is for the median price from the same month last year
: Resale
: Single-Family
: North County Coast 409 $502,500 -3.37%
: Cardiff 92007 14 $650,000 -14.75%
: Carlsbad NW 92008 17 $490,000 -20.65%
: Carlsbad SE 92009 44 $725,000 11.54%
: Carlsbad NE 92010 16 $438,750 -14.81%
y*i
20 楼
we need to be very careful with median prices because the mix of units can
really skew them.
a nice example here:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/05/median-price-mix-exam
specifically, in Carmel Valley 92130, the sharp drop in terms of median
price probably means more cheaper houses were closed compared to last June.
Region Neighborhood ZIP code SFR JUNE '10 SFR JUNE '11 SFR
Med JUNE '10 SFR Med JUNE '11 SFR % Chg, '10-'11
North County Coast Carmel Valley 92130 39 39 $1,015,000 $
855,000 -15.8%
【在 w******y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 感觉是不准的,see below
: for Home Sales Recorded in June 2011
: % Change is for the median price from the same month last year
: Resale
: Single-Family
: North County Coast 409 $502,500 -3.37%
: Cardiff 92007 14 $650,000 -14.75%
: Carlsbad NW 92008 17 $490,000 -20.65%
: Carlsbad SE 92009 44 $725,000 11.54%
: Carlsbad NE 92010 16 $438,750 -14.81%
really skew them.
a nice example here:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/05/median-price-mix-exam
specifically, in Carmel Valley 92130, the sharp drop in terms of median
price probably means more cheaper houses were closed compared to last June.
Region Neighborhood ZIP code SFR JUNE '10 SFR JUNE '11 SFR
Med JUNE '10 SFR Med JUNE '11 SFR % Chg, '10-'11
North County Coast Carmel Valley 92130 39 39 $1,015,000 $
855,000 -15.8%
【在 w******y 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 感觉是不准的,see below
: for Home Sales Recorded in June 2011
: % Change is for the median price from the same month last year
: Resale
: Single-Family
: North County Coast 409 $502,500 -3.37%
: Cardiff 92007 14 $650,000 -14.75%
: Carlsbad NW 92008 17 $490,000 -20.65%
: Carlsbad SE 92009 44 $725,000 11.54%
: Carlsbad NE 92010 16 $438,750 -14.81%
w*y
21 楼
Unfortunately it is not the case...
It is just the opposite
More and more 1M houses in CV were going down to 900K something in this
June
When you look at the per sqft price in CV, it dropped by 5%.
Combining these two numbers,
you figure out the composition of the houses sold in June.
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: we need to be very careful with median prices because the mix of units can
: really skew them.
: a nice example here:
: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/05/median-price-mix-exam
: specifically, in Carmel Valley 92130, the sharp drop in terms of median
: price probably means more cheaper houses were closed compared to last June.
: Region Neighborhood ZIP code SFR JUNE '10 SFR JUNE '11 SFR
: Med JUNE '10 SFR Med JUNE '11 SFR % Chg, '10-'11
: North County Coast Carmel Valley 92130 39 39 $1,015,000 $
: 855,000 -15.8%
It is just the opposite
More and more 1M houses in CV were going down to 900K something in this
June
When you look at the per sqft price in CV, it dropped by 5%.
Combining these two numbers,
you figure out the composition of the houses sold in June.
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: we need to be very careful with median prices because the mix of units can
: really skew them.
: a nice example here:
: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/05/median-price-mix-exam
: specifically, in Carmel Valley 92130, the sharp drop in terms of median
: price probably means more cheaper houses were closed compared to last June.
: Region Neighborhood ZIP code SFR JUNE '10 SFR JUNE '11 SFR
: Med JUNE '10 SFR Med JUNE '11 SFR % Chg, '10-'11
: North County Coast Carmel Valley 92130 39 39 $1,015,000 $
: 855,000 -15.8%
p*e
23 楼
挺一个
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: we need to be very careful with median prices because the mix of units can
: really skew them.
: a nice example here:
: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/05/median-price-mix-exam
: specifically, in Carmel Valley 92130, the sharp drop in terms of median
: price probably means more cheaper houses were closed compared to last June.
: Region Neighborhood ZIP code SFR JUNE '10 SFR JUNE '11 SFR
: Med JUNE '10 SFR Med JUNE '11 SFR % Chg, '10-'11
: North County Coast Carmel Valley 92130 39 39 $1,015,000 $
: 855,000 -15.8%
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: we need to be very careful with median prices because the mix of units can
: really skew them.
: a nice example here:
: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/05/median-price-mix-exam
: specifically, in Carmel Valley 92130, the sharp drop in terms of median
: price probably means more cheaper houses were closed compared to last June.
: Region Neighborhood ZIP code SFR JUNE '10 SFR JUNE '11 SFR
: Med JUNE '10 SFR Med JUNE '11 SFR % Chg, '10-'11
: North County Coast Carmel Valley 92130 39 39 $1,015,000 $
: 855,000 -15.8%
p*e
24 楼
我有个建议,你可以好好的研究一下92130最近几个月的sale record,和每个sale的房
子最近10年的估价变化,然后再看你这“15%跌价论”还能不能站得住脚。
【在 w******y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: Unfortunately it is not the case...
: It is just the opposite
: More and more 1M houses in CV were going down to 900K something in this
: June
: When you look at the per sqft price in CV, it dropped by 5%.
: Combining these two numbers,
: you figure out the composition of the houses sold in June.
子最近10年的估价变化,然后再看你这“15%跌价论”还能不能站得住脚。
【在 w******y 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: Unfortunately it is not the case...
: It is just the opposite
: More and more 1M houses in CV were going down to 900K something in this
: June
: When you look at the per sqft price in CV, it dropped by 5%.
: Combining these two numbers,
: you figure out the composition of the houses sold in June.
w*y
25 楼
请用数据说话
我数据都给你了, 逻辑推理我也送给你了,
如果是房价没变只是便宜房卖得多了你怎么协调这个-5%和-15%的数据?
你有何数据支持你说的6月份CV卖得都是便宜房嘛?数据拿来
而不是凭空想象, lol
请找到一批CV的 单价和总价都便宜的房子出来(I doubt there are such
houses out there)
最后,CV 1M+的房子在明显跌价,这个你可以自己去查6月record
而且有这个感觉的买家很多
【在 p*****e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 我有个建议,你可以好好的研究一下92130最近几个月的sale record,和每个sale的房
: 子最近10年的估价变化,然后再看你这“15%跌价论”还能不能站得住脚。
我数据都给你了, 逻辑推理我也送给你了,
如果是房价没变只是便宜房卖得多了你怎么协调这个-5%和-15%的数据?
你有何数据支持你说的6月份CV卖得都是便宜房嘛?数据拿来
而不是凭空想象, lol
请找到一批CV的 单价和总价都便宜的房子出来(I doubt there are such
houses out there)
最后,CV 1M+的房子在明显跌价,这个你可以自己去查6月record
而且有这个感觉的买家很多
【在 p*****e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 我有个建议,你可以好好的研究一下92130最近几个月的sale record,和每个sale的房
: 子最近10年的估价变化,然后再看你这“15%跌价论”还能不能站得住脚。
e*t
26 楼
房价跌是好事,应该庆祝。
y*i
27 楼
As illustrated by the calculatedrisk example, no matter the prices up or
down, the median can be all over the place depending on the mix.
June, 2011 92130 closings are here:
http://www.sdlookup.com/Closings-92130-Carmel_Valley
Who has June, 2010 data so we can compare?
I think PPSF is a closer market trend indicator:
Town or Area Zip Code 6/2009 6/2010 6/2011
closings/PPSF
Carmel Vly 92130 35/$344 40/$347 34/$337
a small 3% drop from 6/10 to 6/11.
【在 w******y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 请用数据说话
: 我数据都给你了, 逻辑推理我也送给你了,
: 如果是房价没变只是便宜房卖得多了你怎么协调这个-5%和-15%的数据?
: 你有何数据支持你说的6月份CV卖得都是便宜房嘛?数据拿来
: 而不是凭空想象, lol
: 请找到一批CV的 单价和总价都便宜的房子出来(I doubt there are such
: houses out there)
: 最后,CV 1M+的房子在明显跌价,这个你可以自己去查6月record
: 而且有这个感觉的买家很多
down, the median can be all over the place depending on the mix.
June, 2011 92130 closings are here:
http://www.sdlookup.com/Closings-92130-Carmel_Valley
Who has June, 2010 data so we can compare?
I think PPSF is a closer market trend indicator:
Town or Area Zip Code 6/2009 6/2010 6/2011
closings/PPSF
Carmel Vly 92130 35/$344 40/$347 34/$337
a small 3% drop from 6/10 to 6/11.
【在 w******y 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 请用数据说话
: 我数据都给你了, 逻辑推理我也送给你了,
: 如果是房价没变只是便宜房卖得多了你怎么协调这个-5%和-15%的数据?
: 你有何数据支持你说的6月份CV卖得都是便宜房嘛?数据拿来
: 而不是凭空想象, lol
: 请找到一批CV的 单价和总价都便宜的房子出来(I doubt there are such
: houses out there)
: 最后,CV 1M+的房子在明显跌价,这个你可以自己去查6月record
: 而且有这个感觉的买家很多
p*e
28 楼
这你倒是说对了:对你这种睁眼说瞎话,胡搅蛮缠的主儿,数据speaks!
下面的table包括我能找到的92130今年6月的sales record,我把zillow今年7月和去年7
月的估价做了个比较(卖出当月的zillow 估价不available,如果你有6月的估价那做好,
没有就凑合看7月的吧).最后一栏"delta"是2011年7月估价相对2010年估价的变化(%),
正是升,负是降.在卖出的18个sfh(4+ bedroom,<1M)里,10个比去年升,7个降,一个持平,
平均升1.54%, 我没看1M以上的,也许像大家说的1M的有所降价,你有兴趣可以自己列表.
address date price 2011/07 2010/07 Delta
11354 Black Colt Ln 3-Jun 840 832 783 6.25798212
4554 Calle Mar De Armonia 17-Jun 865 902 866 4.15704388
4372 Calle Mejillones Ct 8-Jun 820 844 897 -5.908584169
10938 Corte Mejillones 28-Jun 895 858 879 -2.389078498
10854 Cloverhurst Way 28-Jun 980 1050 1050 0
5471 Caminito Vista Lujo 24-Jun 918 921 895 2.905027933
5415 Caminito Exquisito 16-Jun 858 925 951 -2.733964248
5195 Ruette De Mer 3-Jun 942 1038 1000 3.8
5237 Beachcomber Ct 3-Jun 682 1031 1040 -0.
865384615
5453 White Oak Ln 20-Jun 820 815 764 6.67539267
5547 Mill Creek Rd 2-Jun 890 874 864 1.157407407
4479 Foxhollow Ct 27-Jun 665 964 992 -2.822580645
4215 Kerwood Ct 30-Jun 715 729 752 -3.058510638
4613 Bryson Ter 17-Jun 717 761 724 5.110497238
3325 Lower Ridge Rd 2-Jun 700 796 949 -16.12223393
13212 Capstone Dr 23-Jun 855 856 822 4.136253041
4613 Bryson Ter 17-Jun 717 761 724 5.110497238
6191 Valerian Vista Pl 30-Jun 970 1008 824 22.33009709
【在 w******y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 请用数据说话
: 我数据都给你了, 逻辑推理我也送给你了,
: 如果是房价没变只是便宜房卖得多了你怎么协调这个-5%和-15%的数据?
: 你有何数据支持你说的6月份CV卖得都是便宜房嘛?数据拿来
: 而不是凭空想象, lol
: 请找到一批CV的 单价和总价都便宜的房子出来(I doubt there are such
: houses out there)
: 最后,CV 1M+的房子在明显跌价,这个你可以自己去查6月record
: 而且有这个感觉的买家很多
下面的table包括我能找到的92130今年6月的sales record,我把zillow今年7月和去年7
月的估价做了个比较(卖出当月的zillow 估价不available,如果你有6月的估价那做好,
没有就凑合看7月的吧).最后一栏"delta"是2011年7月估价相对2010年估价的变化(%),
正是升,负是降.在卖出的18个sfh(4+ bedroom,<1M)里,10个比去年升,7个降,一个持平,
平均升1.54%, 我没看1M以上的,也许像大家说的1M的有所降价,你有兴趣可以自己列表.
address date price 2011/07 2010/07 Delta
11354 Black Colt Ln 3-Jun 840 832 783 6.25798212
4554 Calle Mar De Armonia 17-Jun 865 902 866 4.15704388
4372 Calle Mejillones Ct 8-Jun 820 844 897 -5.908584169
10938 Corte Mejillones 28-Jun 895 858 879 -2.389078498
10854 Cloverhurst Way 28-Jun 980 1050 1050 0
5471 Caminito Vista Lujo 24-Jun 918 921 895 2.905027933
5415 Caminito Exquisito 16-Jun 858 925 951 -2.733964248
5195 Ruette De Mer 3-Jun 942 1038 1000 3.8
5237 Beachcomber Ct 3-Jun 682 1031 1040 -0.
865384615
5453 White Oak Ln 20-Jun 820 815 764 6.67539267
5547 Mill Creek Rd 2-Jun 890 874 864 1.157407407
4479 Foxhollow Ct 27-Jun 665 964 992 -2.822580645
4215 Kerwood Ct 30-Jun 715 729 752 -3.058510638
4613 Bryson Ter 17-Jun 717 761 724 5.110497238
3325 Lower Ridge Rd 2-Jun 700 796 949 -16.12223393
13212 Capstone Dr 23-Jun 855 856 822 4.136253041
4613 Bryson Ter 17-Jun 717 761 724 5.110497238
6191 Valerian Vista Pl 30-Jun 970 1008 824 22.33009709
【在 w******y 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 请用数据说话
: 我数据都给你了, 逻辑推理我也送给你了,
: 如果是房价没变只是便宜房卖得多了你怎么协调这个-5%和-15%的数据?
: 你有何数据支持你说的6月份CV卖得都是便宜房嘛?数据拿来
: 而不是凭空想象, lol
: 请找到一批CV的 单价和总价都便宜的房子出来(I doubt there are such
: houses out there)
: 最后,CV 1M+的房子在明显跌价,这个你可以自己去查6月record
: 而且有这个感觉的买家很多
a*g
29 楼
这个很准。和我的感觉一致。综合起来:
老的房子,小的房子跌点。 大的房子,新的房子涨点。
没办法,球康不down,房价很难跌,主要是还是局部供求平衡决定的。
年7
好,
平,
表.
Delta
【在 p*****e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 这你倒是说对了:对你这种睁眼说瞎话,胡搅蛮缠的主儿,数据speaks!
: 下面的table包括我能找到的92130今年6月的sales record,我把zillow今年7月和去年7
: 月的估价做了个比较(卖出当月的zillow 估价不available,如果你有6月的估价那做好,
: 没有就凑合看7月的吧).最后一栏"delta"是2011年7月估价相对2010年估价的变化(%),
: 正是升,负是降.在卖出的18个sfh(4+ bedroom,<1M)里,10个比去年升,7个降,一个持平,
: 平均升1.54%, 我没看1M以上的,也许像大家说的1M的有所降价,你有兴趣可以自己列表.
: address date price 2011/07 2010/07 Delta
:
: 11354 Black Colt Ln 3-Jun 840 832 783 6.25798212
: 4554 Calle Mar De Armonia 17-Jun 865 902 866 4.15704388
老的房子,小的房子跌点。 大的房子,新的房子涨点。
没办法,球康不down,房价很难跌,主要是还是局部供求平衡决定的。
年7
好,
平,
表.
Delta
【在 p*****e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 这你倒是说对了:对你这种睁眼说瞎话,胡搅蛮缠的主儿,数据speaks!
: 下面的table包括我能找到的92130今年6月的sales record,我把zillow今年7月和去年7
: 月的估价做了个比较(卖出当月的zillow 估价不available,如果你有6月的估价那做好,
: 没有就凑合看7月的吧).最后一栏"delta"是2011年7月估价相对2010年估价的变化(%),
: 正是升,负是降.在卖出的18个sfh(4+ bedroom,<1M)里,10个比去年升,7个降,一个持平,
: 平均升1.54%, 我没看1M以上的,也许像大家说的1M的有所降价,你有兴趣可以自己列表.
: address date price 2011/07 2010/07 Delta
:
: 11354 Black Colt Ln 3-Jun 840 832 783 6.25798212
: 4554 Calle Mar De Armonia 17-Jun 865 902 866 4.15704388
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