表白了？ 第四章（38）履任# paladin - 谈古论金，黄梁一梦
i*8
1 楼
如果我投资MutulFund 和ETFs，我的目标是保持平均每年15%的return,大家认为这个
return 的比率高吗或者说，是不是很难实现?
谢谢！
return 的比率高吗或者说，是不是很难实现?
谢谢！
b*u
2 楼
我父母第一次出国，到底特律来参加我的毕业典礼，我很不放心，
不知道有不有人乘坐同一天的航班，可以跟我父母一起过关，相互照应！
不甚感激！
如有意，请回站内信箱，谢谢！
不知道有不有人乘坐同一天的航班，可以跟我父母一起过关，相互照应！
不甚感激！
如有意，请回站内信箱，谢谢！
m*s
3 楼
第四章 第四章（38）履任
吃罢夜饭，商成就在陈璞和郭表的陪同下，直接到燕山卫中军上任了。
他的到来让燕山中军上下都感到震惊，并立刻引起高度的关注。
自从五月份邓司马在第一次黑水河战役里中了药矢被送回后方之后，关于谁来继任军司
马的猜测，就一直没有停止过，哪怕再是军情紧急战事胶着，人们在空暇时依然会不时
地提起这个话题。即便军中有司专门为此出面打过招呼，严禁军官们在背后议论这件事
，可效果不大。唉，如此重大的人事安排，想不让人议论是完全不可能的，尤其是那些
旅级以上的军官，简直就是不由自主。
两个多月里，在新任军司马的人选问题上，传出了不少的小道消息。最开始的说法是行
营将另外委派一员将领来指挥燕山中军，毅国公王义、通县侯曹宾、游骑将军武陵……
所有正五品以上的闲职或者担任着不那么重要副职的将军，都可能成为新的军司马。可
随着时间的推移，人们发现这些传扬得有鼻子有眼睛的继任者一个都没来，而行营在这
个问题上又迟迟不表态，于是，另外一种说法很快就流传开：行营本来想让临时顶替邓
司马指挥全军的司马都尉来担当这个职务，只是因为这种或者那种原因，任命才暂时没
有下达。然而，随着司马都尉战死在撤
吃罢夜饭，商成就在陈璞和郭表的陪同下，直接到燕山卫中军上任了。
他的到来让燕山中军上下都感到震惊，并立刻引起高度的关注。
自从五月份邓司马在第一次黑水河战役里中了药矢被送回后方之后，关于谁来继任军司
马的猜测，就一直没有停止过，哪怕再是军情紧急战事胶着，人们在空暇时依然会不时
地提起这个话题。即便军中有司专门为此出面打过招呼，严禁军官们在背后议论这件事
，可效果不大。唉，如此重大的人事安排，想不让人议论是完全不可能的，尤其是那些
旅级以上的军官，简直就是不由自主。
两个多月里，在新任军司马的人选问题上，传出了不少的小道消息。最开始的说法是行
营将另外委派一员将领来指挥燕山中军，毅国公王义、通县侯曹宾、游骑将军武陵……
所有正五品以上的闲职或者担任着不那么重要副职的将军，都可能成为新的军司马。可
随着时间的推移，人们发现这些传扬得有鼻子有眼睛的继任者一个都没来，而行营在这
个问题上又迟迟不表态，于是，另外一种说法很快就流传开：行营本来想让临时顶替邓
司马指挥全军的司马都尉来担当这个职务，只是因为这种或者那种原因，任命才暂时没
有下达。然而，随着司马都尉战死在撤
s*n
4 楼
Not a realistic expectation. If you can get 8% a year, that's
already very very good. Under current condition, 4-5% will be
a better guideline. Note that I am not talking about the return
in certain period, I am talking about the average return over
maybe 20 years.
【在 i********8 的大作中提到】
: 如果我投资MutulFund 和ETFs，我的目标是保持平均每年15%的return,大家认为这个
: return 的比率高吗或者说，是不是很难实现?
: 谢谢！
already very very good. Under current condition, 4-5% will be
a better guideline. Note that I am not talking about the return
in certain period, I am talking about the average return over
maybe 20 years.
【在 i********8 的大作中提到】
: 如果我投资MutulFund 和ETFs，我的目标是保持平均每年15%的return,大家认为这个
: return 的比率高吗或者说，是不是很难实现?
: 谢谢！
a*n
5 楼
4%一年，20年 是 2.2倍
就是翻倍多点
看来以后要靠工资了
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Not a realistic expectation. If you can get 8% a year, that's
: already very very good. Under current condition, 4-5% will be
: a better guideline. Note that I am not talking about the return
: in certain period, I am talking about the average return over
: maybe 20 years.
就是翻倍多点
看来以后要靠工资了
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Not a realistic expectation. If you can get 8% a year, that's
: already very very good. Under current condition, 4-5% will be
: a better guideline. Note that I am not talking about the return
: in certain period, I am talking about the average return over
: maybe 20 years.
i*8
6 楼
really? my expectations is about average return during 10-15 years.
getting 8% is very good ??
what do you think of Gold /metal funds, they have been doing very good in
the past a few years.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Not a realistic expectation. If you can get 8% a year, that's
: already very very good. Under current condition, 4-5% will be
: a better guideline. Note that I am not talking about the return
: in certain period, I am talking about the average return over
: maybe 20 years.
getting 8% is very good ??
what do you think of Gold /metal funds, they have been doing very good in
the past a few years.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Not a realistic expectation. If you can get 8% a year, that's
: already very very good. Under current condition, 4-5% will be
: a better guideline. Note that I am not talking about the return
: in certain period, I am talking about the average return over
: maybe 20 years.
k*n
7 楼
in 2006, people said the same thing for the stock market
past performance does not gurantee you good return in the next 10-15 years
【在 i********8 的大作中提到】
: really? my expectations is about average return during 10-15 years.
: getting 8% is very good ??
: what do you think of Gold /metal funds, they have been doing very good in
: the past a few years.
past performance does not gurantee you good return in the next 10-15 years
【在 i********8 的大作中提到】
: really? my expectations is about average return during 10-15 years.
: getting 8% is very good ??
: what do you think of Gold /metal funds, they have been doing very good in
: the past a few years.
c*x
8 楼
You will be sorely disappointed
【在 i********8 的大作中提到】
: really? my expectations is about average return during 10-15 years.
: getting 8% is very good ??
: what do you think of Gold /metal funds, they have been doing very good in
: the past a few years.
D*t
9 楼
Madoff can do that.
【在 i********8 的大作中提到】
: 如果我投资MutulFund 和ETFs，我的目标是保持平均每年15%的return,大家认为这个
: return 的比率高吗或者说，是不是很难实现?
: 谢谢！
【在 i********8 的大作中提到】
: 如果我投资MutulFund 和ETFs，我的目标是保持平均每年15%的return,大家认为这个
: return 的比率高吗或者说，是不是很难实现?
: 谢谢！
s*u
10 楼
So you do subscibe to Bill Gross's theory of " New Normal"? He argued that the next decade is going to see an annual return of about 6%. I am not so sure since it is so hard to make long term economic predictions.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Not a realistic expectation. If you can get 8% a year, that's
: already very very good. Under current condition, 4-5% will be
: a better guideline. Note that I am not talking about the return
: in certain period, I am talking about the average return over
: maybe 20 years.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Not a realistic expectation. If you can get 8% a year, that's
: already very very good. Under current condition, 4-5% will be
: a better guideline. Note that I am not talking about the return
: in certain period, I am talking about the average return over
: maybe 20 years.
s*u
11 楼
我今年买的股票基金+ 债券基金的投资组合大概 BEAT 大盘 (S&P 500 INDEX) 4，5个百分点。 要是我的 这个 投资组合可以在今后10年长期保持这个水平， 我就肯定心满意足了。(我一年大概会调整一两次)。 要是遇到2008年那种股灾， BEAT 大盘几个百分点照样亏很多。 我想这是你要长期投资就必须接受的。
【在 i********8 的大作中提到】
: 如果我投资MutulFund 和ETFs，我的目标是保持平均每年15%的return,大家认为这个
: return 的比率高吗或者说，是不是很难实现?
: 谢谢！
【在 i********8 的大作中提到】
: 如果我投资MutulFund 和ETFs，我的目标是保持平均每年15%的return,大家认为这个
: return 的比率高吗或者说，是不是很难实现?
: 谢谢！
s*n
12 楼
To me, the uncertainty is the inflation, I have no idea where it will go.
The certainty is the economy, it has nowhere to go but hell.
A 1-2% return in real term will be very good for the next decade. But in
nominal term, it will depend on inflation.
that the next decade is going to see an annual return of about 6%. I am not
so sure since it is so hard to make long term economic predictions.
【在 s********u 的大作中提到】
: 我今年买的股票基金+ 债券基金的投资组合大概 BEAT 大盘 (S&P 500 INDEX) 4，5个百分点。 要是我的 这个 投资组合可以在今后10年长期保持这个水平， 我就肯定心满意足了。(我一年大概会调整一两次)。 要是遇到2008年那种股灾， BEAT 大盘几个百分点照样亏很多。 我想这是你要长期投资就必须接受的。
The certainty is the economy, it has nowhere to go but hell.
A 1-2% return in real term will be very good for the next decade. But in
nominal term, it will depend on inflation.
that the next decade is going to see an annual return of about 6%. I am not
so sure since it is so hard to make long term economic predictions.
【在 s********u 的大作中提到】
: 我今年买的股票基金+ 债券基金的投资组合大概 BEAT 大盘 (S&P 500 INDEX) 4，5个百分点。 要是我的 这个 投资组合可以在今后10年长期保持这个水平， 我就肯定心满意足了。(我一年大概会调整一两次)。 要是遇到2008年那种股灾， BEAT 大盘几个百分点照样亏很多。 我想这是你要长期投资就必须接受的。
T*t
13 楼
the stock market will keep up with inflation for sure...
otherwise, where would the inflated money go?
not
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: To me, the uncertainty is the inflation, I have no idea where it will go.
: The certainty is the economy, it has nowhere to go but hell.
: A 1-2% return in real term will be very good for the next decade. But in
: nominal term, it will depend on inflation.
:
: that the next decade is going to see an annual return of about 6%. I am not
: so sure since it is so hard to make long term economic predictions.
otherwise, where would the inflated money go?
not
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: To me, the uncertainty is the inflation, I have no idea where it will go.
: The certainty is the economy, it has nowhere to go but hell.
: A 1-2% return in real term will be very good for the next decade. But in
: nominal term, it will depend on inflation.
:
: that the next decade is going to see an annual return of about 6%. I am not
: so sure since it is so hard to make long term economic predictions.
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