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1 J.C. Penney - Down 54%
For a department store that has a century of history behind it, 2013 may be
one of its worst years. In the spring, the board fired former Apple
wunderkind Ron Johnson, the man who they hired to bring that high-tech
pizzazz to the floundering chain. Mr. Johnson’s flair for retail looked
fantastic when it was wrapping up iPads and iPods and Macs; it was far less
effective in selling Penney’s down-market goods. In April, the company
acknowledged the failure, and sacked Mr. Johnson.
To rub salt in that wound, the company brought back Myron Ullman, the man Mr
. Johnson replaced. As if all that wasn’t bad enough, the stock’s
precipitous drop drove it right out of the S&P 500 – especially painful as
J.C. Penney was an original member of the index, going back to its start in
1957 (there are 67 left). After trading as high as $87 in 2007, Penney
shares sank to as low as $6.24 in 2013.
The company will likely spend 2014 shaking off the afterburn of the Johnson
era, while trying to move into a new one with its old CEO. “We expect
another roller coaster ride next year,” Sterne Agee wrote. “Buckle up!”
2 Newmont Mining - Down 50%
It hasn’t been an easy year for anybody associated with the gold market,
which careened out of a 13-year bull market in 2013. Slowing emerging
markets, changes in the way the mining industry operates, and of course
changes in how gold and inflation and central banks all interoperate have
conspired to drive gold prices down.
The miners took it especially hard. Newmont Mining has been hammered. Apart
from its plunge during the Panic of 2008, Newmont stock has not been this
low since 2002. While it’s down about 50% this year, it’s down nearly 70%
since its all-time high of $70.49 in November 2011. Investors shouldn’t
plan on a return to those levels.
“We probably won’t get back to the boom days of 2012 any time soon,”
former Newmont CEO (who now runs Boart Longyear) Richard O’Brien said back
in October.
For risk takers, gold’s annus horribilis could presage an opportunity for
2014. The lower prices will force miners to cut costs and improve operations
, and those with stable mines should outperform their peers, J.P. Morgan
said. “Down cycles improve miners’ skills and create opportunities,” the
firm said, paraphrasing Newmont’s North American chief, Tom Kerr.
That may not help Newmont in the near term, though. J.P. Morgan lowered its
price target on the stock to $28 from $36. That’s up from the current price
, which is around $23, but not by much.
3 BlackBerry - Down 39%
BlackBerry founder Mike Lazaridis got plaudits after announcing that he was
selling a part of his stake in the company. “Smart move,” the Street said.
What would have been a really smart move would’ve been to sell the entire
company years ago.
BlackBerry, until this year called Research in Motion, has been losing
market share to the competition for several years, but never has the company
’s future seemed so bleak. It brought in a new CEO, a new business plan, a
new strategy. Things look marginally better than they did a month or so ago,
when the stock bottomed out at $5.68. Still, this is a company most people
have written off. The mean price target on the Street, according to FactSet
, is just $6.36. That’s below the $7.30 price it closed at Friday, a day
after Mr. Lazaridis announced his sale.
“Even with a sharper direction the company may still be on a path to
destroy shareholder capital,” BGC Financial tech analyst Colin Gillis wrote.
$148.13 The all-time high price for BlackBerry stock, set on June 20, 2008,
when the company was still known as Research In Motion.
4 Abercrombie & Fitch - Down 30%
Once upon a time, Abercrombie & Fitch was a bastion of Hemingway-esque
adventurers and travelers, selling sporting goods and gear. Then it got
bought out, and the new owners ditched the safari duds for hip, sexy, and
young clothing. Sales took off. But Abercrombie’s flavor went stale this
year, and the company’s had a brutal year. Sales are down, the stock is
down, and A&F is another retailer that got booted out of the S&P 500.
After trading in the $80 during 2007, Abercrombie shares are down around $33.
Getting back on their game won’t be easy. A&F has been an aggressive
discounter this holiday season, with most items off 50% or more, according
to Susquehanna Financial Group. The discounting will cut into the bottom
line, and Susquehanna sees A&F earning 83 cents a share in the fourth-
quarter, with 2013 EPS at $1.40. But it pegs 2014 earnings at $2.77, nearly
double. Still, that’s down from 2012′s $2.91, to say nothing of the $5.16
a share the company earned in 2007.
Of course, it all depends upon what the cool kids are doing next year.
5 Peabody - Down 28%
It hasn’t been an easy year for coal miners, and Peabody’s performance led
that dismal parade. Much like Newmont, Peabody has suffered as the
commodity cycle has turned on it. The increase in natural gas use has hurt
coal, and the slowdown in China, which is a huge coal importer of Australian
coal, has also been a major issue.
The key for Peabody in 2014 will obviously hinge on coal prices. “More than
one-third of [metallurgical] coal producers globally are not making money
at current prices,” Sterne Agee wrote. It expects prices will “normalize”
in 2014, possibly in the second half, and Peabody’s put itself in a good
position should that happen, said the firm, which has a $30 price target on
the company.
Peabody settled labor negotiations with workers at its Metropolitan mine in
Australia, and is expected to begin a new type of mining, called longwall
caving technology, at its North Goonyella mine within the next few weeks.
The firm sees 2013 earnings of only 30 cents a share, but expects that to
improve to $1 a share in 2014.
For a department store that has a century of history behind it, 2013 may be
one of its worst years. In the spring, the board fired former Apple
wunderkind Ron Johnson, the man who they hired to bring that high-tech
pizzazz to the floundering chain. Mr. Johnson’s flair for retail looked
fantastic when it was wrapping up iPads and iPods and Macs; it was far less
effective in selling Penney’s down-market goods. In April, the company
acknowledged the failure, and sacked Mr. Johnson.
To rub salt in that wound, the company brought back Myron Ullman, the man Mr
. Johnson replaced. As if all that wasn’t bad enough, the stock’s
precipitous drop drove it right out of the S&P 500 – especially painful as
J.C. Penney was an original member of the index, going back to its start in
1957 (there are 67 left). After trading as high as $87 in 2007, Penney
shares sank to as low as $6.24 in 2013.
The company will likely spend 2014 shaking off the afterburn of the Johnson
era, while trying to move into a new one with its old CEO. “We expect
another roller coaster ride next year,” Sterne Agee wrote. “Buckle up!”
2 Newmont Mining - Down 50%
It hasn’t been an easy year for anybody associated with the gold market,
which careened out of a 13-year bull market in 2013. Slowing emerging
markets, changes in the way the mining industry operates, and of course
changes in how gold and inflation and central banks all interoperate have
conspired to drive gold prices down.
The miners took it especially hard. Newmont Mining has been hammered. Apart
from its plunge during the Panic of 2008, Newmont stock has not been this
low since 2002. While it’s down about 50% this year, it’s down nearly 70%
since its all-time high of $70.49 in November 2011. Investors shouldn’t
plan on a return to those levels.
“We probably won’t get back to the boom days of 2012 any time soon,”
former Newmont CEO (who now runs Boart Longyear) Richard O’Brien said back
in October.
For risk takers, gold’s annus horribilis could presage an opportunity for
2014. The lower prices will force miners to cut costs and improve operations
, and those with stable mines should outperform their peers, J.P. Morgan
said. “Down cycles improve miners’ skills and create opportunities,” the
firm said, paraphrasing Newmont’s North American chief, Tom Kerr.
That may not help Newmont in the near term, though. J.P. Morgan lowered its
price target on the stock to $28 from $36. That’s up from the current price
, which is around $23, but not by much.
3 BlackBerry - Down 39%
BlackBerry founder Mike Lazaridis got plaudits after announcing that he was
selling a part of his stake in the company. “Smart move,” the Street said.
What would have been a really smart move would’ve been to sell the entire
company years ago.
BlackBerry, until this year called Research in Motion, has been losing
market share to the competition for several years, but never has the company
’s future seemed so bleak. It brought in a new CEO, a new business plan, a
new strategy. Things look marginally better than they did a month or so ago,
when the stock bottomed out at $5.68. Still, this is a company most people
have written off. The mean price target on the Street, according to FactSet
, is just $6.36. That’s below the $7.30 price it closed at Friday, a day
after Mr. Lazaridis announced his sale.
“Even with a sharper direction the company may still be on a path to
destroy shareholder capital,” BGC Financial tech analyst Colin Gillis wrote.
$148.13 The all-time high price for BlackBerry stock, set on June 20, 2008,
when the company was still known as Research In Motion.
4 Abercrombie & Fitch - Down 30%
Once upon a time, Abercrombie & Fitch was a bastion of Hemingway-esque
adventurers and travelers, selling sporting goods and gear. Then it got
bought out, and the new owners ditched the safari duds for hip, sexy, and
young clothing. Sales took off. But Abercrombie’s flavor went stale this
year, and the company’s had a brutal year. Sales are down, the stock is
down, and A&F is another retailer that got booted out of the S&P 500.
After trading in the $80 during 2007, Abercrombie shares are down around $33.
Getting back on their game won’t be easy. A&F has been an aggressive
discounter this holiday season, with most items off 50% or more, according
to Susquehanna Financial Group. The discounting will cut into the bottom
line, and Susquehanna sees A&F earning 83 cents a share in the fourth-
quarter, with 2013 EPS at $1.40. But it pegs 2014 earnings at $2.77, nearly
double. Still, that’s down from 2012′s $2.91, to say nothing of the $5.16
a share the company earned in 2007.
Of course, it all depends upon what the cool kids are doing next year.
5 Peabody - Down 28%
It hasn’t been an easy year for coal miners, and Peabody’s performance led
that dismal parade. Much like Newmont, Peabody has suffered as the
commodity cycle has turned on it. The increase in natural gas use has hurt
coal, and the slowdown in China, which is a huge coal importer of Australian
coal, has also been a major issue.
The key for Peabody in 2014 will obviously hinge on coal prices. “More than
one-third of [metallurgical] coal producers globally are not making money
at current prices,” Sterne Agee wrote. It expects prices will “normalize”
in 2014, possibly in the second half, and Peabody’s put itself in a good
position should that happen, said the firm, which has a $30 price target on
the company.
Peabody settled labor negotiations with workers at its Metropolitan mine in
Australia, and is expected to begin a new type of mining, called longwall
caving technology, at its North Goonyella mine within the next few weeks.
The firm sees 2013 earnings of only 30 cents a share, but expects that to
improve to $1 a share in 2014.
