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uaua刚才一个over 1M的单
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uaua刚才一个over 1M的单# Stock
L*u
1
大神们给说说,还能不能前进了?
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p*i
2
怕怕
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c*s
3
感觉悬


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a*e
4
don't worry ... that is 油工's order :-)
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n*a
5
ROW都退了,前进个鬼哦
10月再见了
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l*f
6
都快绿了,shit

【在 p**i 的大作中提到】
: 怕怕
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L*u
7
和row绑定的原因是啥呢?row退了中国就不能前进了吗?

【在 n******a 的大作中提到】
: ROW都退了,前进个鬼哦
: 10月再见了

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c*m
8
靠,大逆轉啊。
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L*u
9
详细说说?

【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: 感觉悬
:
: :
: :

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l*u
10
20没过啊,过了就是20.5*
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n*a
11
移民法规定了每个国家上限不超过7%,没有规定必须给中国7%
所以,如果中国快过ROW,从字面上看,这就等于给中国保留了7%的名额,这不符合法
律要求。
比如,如果9月份EB2,中国前进一个月到2017-02-01,ROW停留在2017-01-01。有个PD
2017-01-02的印度人9月份找了个墨西哥老婆,那他就不能以老婆的ROW身份提交485。
但一个中国的PD 2017-01-31的人可以交。作为那个印度人,就可以说国务院没有按法
律操作,因为他的PD在那个中国人之前,但移民局把该给他的名额保留给了中国。
(这样之所以不行,因为这是在同一个排期表内)
所以,任何国家的排期都不可能超过ROW。如果今年EB2/3没发满,只能说奥本之前放得
太慢。但一旦ROW后退,中国是不可能超过ROW前进的
(之所以中国少发没问题,因为每个月的排期表是预测的,预测不准并不违法)

【在 L****u 的大作中提到】
: 和row绑定的原因是啥呢?row退了中国就不能前进了吗?
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p*i
12
明天uaua要飙了把.
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c*s
13
row刚出现排期 (8月eb23 row 从C变到有排期) 这是一种退。9月回不来, eb23C要保
持不超过row, 9月最乐观的话应该是和row一起原地踏步。。。大概率和row同退

:详细说说?
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L*u
14
感谢分析!
我经常听到“中印不能超过row”的说法,技术讨论下。
“不符合法律要求”的地方在哪里呢,似乎给了7%也没有违背“不超过7%”的这条规定?
所以我的理解是,中国不能快过row更像是一种既成事实/默认操作手法,而并不是有什
么硬性法律
条文限制?

PD

【在 n******a 的大作中提到】
: 移民法规定了每个国家上限不超过7%,没有规定必须给中国7%
: 所以,如果中国快过ROW,从字面上看,这就等于给中国保留了7%的名额,这不符合法
: 律要求。
: 比如,如果9月份EB2,中国前进一个月到2017-02-01,ROW停留在2017-01-01。有个PD
: 2017-01-02的印度人9月份找了个墨西哥老婆,那他就不能以老婆的ROW身份提交485。
: 但一个中国的PD 2017-01-31的人可以交。作为那个印度人,就可以说国务院没有按法
: 律操作,因为他的PD在那个中国人之前,但移民局把该给他的名额保留给了中国。
: (这样之所以不行,因为这是在同一个排期表内)
: 所以,任何国家的排期都不可能超过ROW。如果今年EB2/3没发满,只能说奥本之前放得
: 太慢。但一旦ROW后退,中国是不可能超过ROW前进的

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c*s
15
如果中印能交表 row pd在中印前的必须也要能交表


:感谢分析!
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y*8
16
大概率不会动 小概率到退 没概率前进
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l*e
17
你可以这么理解:给中印等国单独排队并设下7%的配额是为了限制,而不是为了保护。
如果中印排期超过了ROW,即便有7%的制约,也会出现中印交表其他国家交不了的情况
,这就变成保护你一定达到7%了。所以中印排期最快不能超过ROW。
反过来你可以想想H1给新加坡智利单独留配额,别人抽签,那就是保护而不是限制

定?

【在 L****u 的大作中提到】
: 感谢分析!
: 我经常听到“中印不能超过row”的说法,技术讨论下。
: “不符合法律要求”的地方在哪里呢,似乎给了7%也没有违背“不超过7%”的这条规定?
: 所以我的理解是,中国不能快过row更像是一种既成事实/默认操作手法,而并不是有什
: 么硬性法律
: 条文限制?
:
: PD

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a*g
18
ROW过去十几年没有连退两个月的记录,所以感觉EB2九月应该不会被ROW卡着后退,自
己会不会退就不知道了。。。我觉得大概率不动吧,搞不好人品爆发下个月ROW进一点
EB2也能跟着进一点呢XD
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L*u
19
这个“必须也要能交表”是为啥我还是没太懂……

【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: 如果中印能交表 row pd在中印前的必须也要能交表
:
: :
: :感谢分析!

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n*a
20
这有啥不好理解的。楼上其他人也说了,7%是限制,不是保留。所以,中国印度是二等
公民,ROW是大爷。大爷的PD只要在你们之前,二等公民必须让路。你把自己当大爷,
这心态就错了。
如果是H1b的新加坡名额,那就是保留的,他们是大爷,不会有人抢他们的名额,但他
们可以来抢别人的(自己的名额用完以后,可以来抽签)

【在 L****u 的大作中提到】
: 这个“必须也要能交表”是为啥我还是没太懂……
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L*u
21
谢谢
这句话字面理解都没问题吧
问题在于背后的法理依据是啥
必须让路还是当大爷这都不是事儿
还是探讨技术问题,找出“必须也要能交表”真正原因来

【在 n******a 的大作中提到】
: 这有啥不好理解的。楼上其他人也说了,7%是限制,不是保留。所以,中国印度是二等
: 公民,ROW是大爷。大爷的PD只要在你们之前,二等公民必须让路。你把自己当大爷,
: 这心态就错了。
: 如果是H1b的新加坡名额,那就是保留的,他们是大爷,不会有人抢他们的名额,但他
: 们可以来抢别人的(自己的名额用完以后,可以来抽签)

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s*k
22
感谢分享。不过你的分析是基于ROW不动的前提,记得上个月奥本是说ROW递交有增快,
最后导致了整体排期调整性倒退,但是没有说ROW已经U了。如果ROW下月小进的话EB23C
也可以进一点不是吗?
我的感觉还是今年EB23C没有发满,奥本用ROW倒退和EB23C不能超过ROW这个限制来找个
好由头。


: 移民法规定了每个国家上限不超过7%,没有规定必须给中国7%

: 所以,如果中国快过ROW,从字面上看,这就等于给中国保留了7%的名额,这不
符合法

: 律要求。

: 比如,如果9月份EB2,中国前进一个月到2017-02-01,ROW停留在2017-01-01。
有个PD

: 2017-01-02的印度人9月份找了个墨西哥老婆,那他就不能以老婆的ROW身份提交
485。

: 但一个中国的PD 2017-01-31的人可以交。作为那个印度人,就可以说国务院没
有按法

: 律操作,因为他的PD在那个中国人之前,但移民局把该给他的名额保留给了中国。

: (这样之所以不行,因为这是在同一个排期表内)

: 所以,任何国家的排期都不可能超过ROW。如果今年EB2/3没发满,只能说奥本之
前放得

: 太慢。但一旦ROW后退,中国是不可能超过ROW前进的



【在 n******a 的大作中提到】
: 这有啥不好理解的。楼上其他人也说了,7%是限制,不是保留。所以,中国印度是二等
: 公民,ROW是大爷。大爷的PD只要在你们之前,二等公民必须让路。你把自己当大爷,
: 这心态就错了。
: 如果是H1b的新加坡名额,那就是保留的,他们是大爷,不会有人抢他们的名额,但他
: 们可以来抢别人的(自己的名额用完以后,可以来抽签)

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c*s
23
Row是多数。。。非row要给row让路

:这个“必须也要能交表”是为啥我还是没太懂……
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n*a
24
先来后到啊,人家先来的,又没有达到国家上限,凭什么不让人家绿,让你绿?
你的思路:我们中国人被压在7%里,所以要发满7%
正确的思路:默认的情况下就是先到先得,除非有特殊情况:(1)国家上限(2)保留名额
。国籍法只规定了国家上限,没有给中国保留名额。所以不管9月剩下多少名额、中国
少发了多少名额,剩下的都是先到先得,不会让中国的日期超过ROW。中国的日期超过
ROW是没有法律依据的(因为法律没有给中国保留名额)

谢谢

【在 L****u 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢
: 这句话字面理解都没问题吧
: 问题在于背后的法理依据是啥
: 必须让路还是当大爷这都不是事儿
: 还是探讨技术问题,找出“必须也要能交表”真正原因来

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L*u
25
谢谢解释
大概懂了
没有人非要发满7%,这里探讨的是后面的法理依据。就事论事而已

【在 n******a 的大作中提到】
: 先来后到啊,人家先来的,又没有达到国家上限,凭什么不让人家绿,让你绿?
: 你的思路:我们中国人被压在7%里,所以要发满7%
: 正确的思路:默认的情况下就是先到先得,除非有特殊情况:(1)国家上限(2)保留名额
: 。国籍法只规定了国家上限,没有给中国保留名额。所以不管9月剩下多少名额、中国
: 少发了多少名额,剩下的都是先到先得,不会让中国的日期超过ROW。中国的日期超过
: ROW是没有法律依据的(因为法律没有给中国保留名额)
:
: 谢谢

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L*u
26
跟着一起进?
这倒也不是没可能。。。

【在 a******g 的大作中提到】
: ROW过去十几年没有连退两个月的记录,所以感觉EB2九月应该不会被ROW卡着后退,自
: 己会不会退就不知道了。。。我觉得大概率不动吧,搞不好人品爆发下个月ROW进一点
: EB2也能跟着进一点呢XD

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n*a
27
移民法呀,最近HR1044不是闹得挺火的么,就是要修改移民法的这一段。
现在的文字是:
8 U.S.C. 1152(a)(2) Per country levels for family-sponsored and employment-
based immigrants
Subject to paragraphs (3), (4), and (5), the total number of immigrant visas
made available to natives of any single foreign state or dependent area
under subsections (a) and (b) of section 1153 of this title in any fiscal
year may not exceed 7 percent (in the case of a single foreign state) or 2
percent (in the case of a dependent area) of the total number of such visas
made available under such subsections in that fiscal year.
单一国家不能超过7%,非国家地区(如香港)不超过2%

【在 L****u 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢解释
: 大概懂了
: 没有人非要发满7%,这里探讨的是后面的法理依据。就事论事而已

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L*u
28
理解了
大神你为何如此优秀

visas
visas

【在 n******a 的大作中提到】
: 移民法呀,最近HR1044不是闹得挺火的么,就是要修改移民法的这一段。
: 现在的文字是:
: 8 U.S.C. 1152(a)(2) Per country levels for family-sponsored and employment-
: based immigrants
: Subject to paragraphs (3), (4), and (5), the total number of immigrant visas
: made available to natives of any single foreign state or dependent area
: under subsections (a) and (b) of section 1153 of this title in any fiscal
: year may not exceed 7 percent (in the case of a single foreign state) or 2
: percent (in the case of a dependent area) of the total number of such visas
: made available under such subsections in that fiscal year.

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a*g
29
以前不是有个什么奥本发的pdf还是什么的。提前预告下个月的排期,这个月有吗?
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c*s
30
月底

:以前不是有个什么奥本发的pdf还是什么的。提前预告下个月的排期,这个月有吗?
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z*g
31
香港是单独作为一个国家算的,所以也有7%。
澳门倒是作为dependent area,但是是算作葡萄牙的dependent area。

visas
visas

【在 n******a 的大作中提到】
: 移民法呀,最近HR1044不是闹得挺火的么,就是要修改移民法的这一段。
: 现在的文字是:
: 8 U.S.C. 1152(a)(2) Per country levels for family-sponsored and employment-
: based immigrants
: Subject to paragraphs (3), (4), and (5), the total number of immigrant visas
: made available to natives of any single foreign state or dependent area
: under subsections (a) and (b) of section 1153 of this title in any fiscal
: year may not exceed 7 percent (in the case of a single foreign state) or 2
: percent (in the case of a dependent area) of the total number of such visas
: made available under such subsections in that fiscal year.

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x*n
32
Why not taking reference to Visa Bulletin? It has its own prediction every
month. It's waste time predicting ourselves.
////////////////
D. ESTABLISHMENT AND RETROGRESSION OF AUGUST EMPLOYMENT-BASED FINAL ACTION
DATES
There has been a steadily increasing level of Employment applicant demand
since late May for adjustment of status cases filed with U.S. Citizenship
and Immigration Services, and there is no indication that this increase will
end. Therefore, it has been necessary to establish or retrogress many of
the August Final Action Dates in an effort to hold worldwide number use
within the maximum allowed under the respective FY-2019 annual limits.
The implementation of the above mentioned dates is expected to be only a
temporary issue. For October, the first month of fiscal year 2020, every
effort will be made to return these final action dates to those which
applied for July.
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n*a
33
王老板说的对。香港最近闹事,美国的威胁就是要撤销这个国家待遇
没把这两件事联系起来....

【在 z****g 的大作中提到】
: 香港是单独作为一个国家算的,所以也有7%。
: 澳门倒是作为dependent area,但是是算作葡萄牙的dependent area。
:
: visas
: visas

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s*t
34
https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/
啥情况eb3这是
EB-3:
EB-3 China Other Workers holds at November 22, 2007
The August 2019 Final Action Date for EB-3 Worldwide, EB-3 El Salvador,
Guatemala and Honduras, EB-3 Mexico, EB-3 Philippines, and EB-3 Vietnam
remains at July 1, 2016. Charlie indicated that it is very difficult to say
at this time whether these categories will become current again in October
2019. EB-3 India, which already had a Final Action Date, retrogresses
further to January 1, 2006 in August.
Between April and May 2019, EB-3 demand increased over 25%. From May to June
, the overall demand increased by more than 45%. During the first week of
July 2019, EB-3 had already used 36% of the total numbers used during the
entire month of June. This in turn necessitated immediate action to limit
future number use by applicants with priority dates later than the Final
Action Dates imposed for each country in the August 2019 Visa Bulletin. This
is happening because number use is approaching the worldwide annual limit,
and some countries have reached or are very close to reaching, their annual
limits. USCIS interviews that were already scheduled may continue in USCIS’
s discretion. If the application is approvable, rather than receiving a visa
number, USCIS’s request for a visa number will be placed in Charlie’s
pending demand file and will be authorized for use once the applicant’s
priority date is once again “current”. Having cases in the pending demand
file provides Charlie with much needed visibility to demand which allows him
to move the Final Action Dates in a more calculated manner.
Charlie cautions that an immediate cut-off in visa usage could very well
occur in the EB-1 and EB-2 categories at any time before the end of the
fiscal year if demand continues to remain high.
The fact that demand has increased so dramatically is not a surprise to
Charlie. What is unexpected is that it is happening much sooner than
expected. Prior to FY2018, if such corrective action was required, it
normally occurred in September. In addition, the issues that arose in FY2018
were attributed to the changes in USCIS processing of employment cases.
At a macro level, the fact that it may be necessary to limit/cut-off future
use of numbers means that all of the numbers available under the applicable
annual limits will have been used. However, for applicants for which the
ability to immediately file an I-485 adjustment of status application is
critical to remaining in the U.S., the retrogression may have significant
negative impact.
avatar
s*t
35
请问奥本这说的啥
https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/
EB-3:
EB-3 China Other Workers holds at November 22, 2007
The August 2019 Final Action Date for EB-3 Worldwide, EB-3 El Salvador,
Guatemala and Honduras, EB-3 Mexico, EB-3 Philippines, and EB-3 Vietnam
remains at July 1, 2016. Charlie indicated that it is very difficult to say
at this time whether these categories will become current again in October
2019. EB-3 India, which already had a Final Action Date, retrogresses
further to January 1, 2006 in August.
Between April and May 2019, EB-3 demand increased over 25%. From May to June
, the overall demand increased by more than 45%. During the first week of
July 2019, EB-3 had already used 36% of the total numbers used during the
entire month of June. This in turn necessitated immediate action to limit
future number use by applicants with priority dates later than the Final
Action Dates imposed for each country in the August 2019 Visa Bulletin. This
is happening because number use is approaching the worldwide annual limit,
and some countries have reached or are very close to reaching, their annual
limits. USCIS interviews that were already scheduled may continue in USCIS’
s discretion. If the application is approvable, rather than receiving a visa
number, USCIS’s request for a visa number will be placed in Charlie’s
pending demand file and will be authorized for use once the applicant’s
priority date is once again “current”. Having cases in the pending demand
file provides Charlie with much needed visibility to demand which allows him
to move the Final Action Dates in a more calculated manner.
Charlie cautions that an immediate cut-off in visa usage could very well
occur in the EB-1 and EB-2 categories at any time before the end of the
fiscal year if demand continues to remain high.
The fact that demand has increased so dramatically is not a surprise to
Charlie. What is unexpected is that it is happening much sooner than
expected. Prior to FY2018, if such corrective action was required, it
normally occurred in September. In addition, the issues that arose in FY2018
were attributed to the changes in USCIS processing of employment cases.
At a macro level, the fact that it may be necessary to limit/cut-off future
use of numbers means that all of the numbers available under the applicable
annual limits will have been used. However, for applicants for which the
ability to immediately file an I-485 adjustment of status application is
critical to remaining in the U.S., the retrogression may have significant
negative impact.
avatar
a*5
37
EB-3 China Other Workers holds at November 22, 2007
里面说的是EB3 Othere worker种类
EB3分两种你知道吧
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c*s
38
其他的也讲了

:EB-3 China Other Workers holds at November 22, 2007
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f*f
39
这有什么好争的,ROW本来就不是一个国家,而是所有名额没用超过7%的国家的集合,
中国如果申请人数长期减少(当然这是我在幻想),排期追上ROW,那就是变成ROW的一
部分而已,不会单列出来,何来排期超过ROW一说?跟保不保护、鄙不鄙视没什么关系
。。。
avatar
c*s
40
正解

:这有什么好争的,ROW本来就不是一个国家,而是所有名额没用超过7%的国家的集合,
:中国如果申请人数长期减少(当然这是我在幻想),排期追上ROW,那就是变成ROW的
一部分而已,不会单列出来,何来排期超过ROW一说?跟保不保护、鄙不鄙视没什么关系
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