怎么看待stock analyst# Stock
o*s
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From Barry Ritholtz, editor of The Big Picture and all around good egg.
Not at all contrary to the generally held opinion, stock analysts are often
wrong. Usually wrong, in fact.
1. Analysts are almost always too optimistic. "Looking a year out, their
earnings expectations are about twice the growth rate we've averaged," he
says. So far pretty much in line with what we thought, but it gets better
from here.
2. Analysts are "especially wrong at turning points as you head into a
recession."
3. The "only time they weren't too bullish," Ritholtz notes, "was right in
the middle of a recession."
As a rule and according to Ritholtz's work, analysts are too optimistic at any point other than the middle of a recession.
The trade isn't shorting their optimism, which is nearly constant. The trade is buying their pessimism, which is specific to the lows of a recession.
Not at all contrary to the generally held opinion, stock analysts are often
wrong. Usually wrong, in fact.
1. Analysts are almost always too optimistic. "Looking a year out, their
earnings expectations are about twice the growth rate we've averaged," he
says. So far pretty much in line with what we thought, but it gets better
from here.
2. Analysts are "especially wrong at turning points as you head into a
recession."
3. The "only time they weren't too bullish," Ritholtz notes, "was right in
the middle of a recession."
As a rule and according to Ritholtz's work, analysts are too optimistic at any point other than the middle of a recession.
The trade isn't shorting their optimism, which is nearly constant. The trade is buying their pessimism, which is specific to the lows of a recession.
