高盛每日市场小结 4/2# Stock
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NY ROUNDUP – Wednesday, April 2, 2014
微信公众平台 USOPTIONS
COMMENTS
· Equities put in another day for the faithful and make new highs
yet again. The bourses came cruising out of the gate following consensus ADP
numbers and positive revisions as investors focused their sights on the end
-of-week employment metrics. The good spirit was almost universally felt as
all but one sector finish in the green (Utilities small -0.16%). SPX and
Nasdaq now +2.5% for the year, while DJIA is back to flat. Closing levels:
SPX 4276.46 (+0.3%); DJIA 16573.00 (+0.2%); and Nasdaq 4276.46 (+0.2%).
· The VIX is basically unch, -0.01 to 13.09.
· EURUSD drifts lower ahead of tomorrow’s ECB. Perhaps some
anticipation of easing tomorrow – but selloff in US rates also gave the
dollar a boost. USDJPY goes out near the day’s high as length is added in
advance of Friday’s NFP. The dollar makes modest gains against EM too. Only
TRY bucks that trend. USDTRY to a new low for 2014. On the flipside for the
day are NZD and RUB with weakness driven by milk and the resumption of
FinMin FX purchases respectably.
· Appetite for risk assets lit the match and US rates took off as
the set up for NFP began to materialize. Morning flows echoed the broader
move as the UST desk saw better selling, though it was felt mostly in
futures. Data failed to turn heads but selling continued into the morning
before USTs hit a lull at lunch and dribbled marginally cheaper over the
course of the day. The desk saw demand for left side gamma as accounts
looked at short dated expiries on 5s. Further out the surface, expiries on
longer tenors met resistance despite little flow on the day. We expect this
vol flow to continue as more accounts position for payrolls.
· The earthquake in Chile overnight sent copper markets rearing
higher as shorts quickly covered their positions.. prices pulled back later
in the session to finish only +20bps as reports showed that Chilean mines
were only marginally impacted by the quake. Energy markets quickly pulling
back in early morning trading with Libyan rebels reporting that they were
meeting with Libyan govt. officials to discuss the reopening of Eastern
Libya ports which have been closed for several months.. nothing concrete
seems to have come from the meetings but the threat of more crude in the
European market kept the Brent complex lower for the rest of the day – flat
price finished down 92c at $104.70/bbl. DOE’s out today relatively
constructive for WTI with Cushing drawing by another 1.2mm bbls and a total
crude draw of 2.4mm bbls, while refinery runs moved 1.7% higher and gasoline
stocks drew more than expected at -1.5mm… WTI structure and flat price
finishing weaker on the session, mainly dragged down by the Brent weakness.
· Tomorrow brings US Non-man ISM, Claims, Markit Composite PMI, and
Trade Balance; Services PMI for the Euro Area, the US, and Brazil;
Composite PMI for the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Russia, and Brazil;
Eurozone Retail Sales; and Turkey CPI. In terms of policy, the ECB will
decide on monetary policy, and GS is calling for a small cut in the refi
rate to 0.10% (from 0.25%) and/or new liquidity measures.
HIGHLIGHTS
· Reuters: Fed’s Lockhart says sustained three percent growth
would warrant rate hike
· WSJ: Private-Sector Adds Jobs, Moderate Job Growth Seen
· Reuters: IMF’s Lagarde calls on ECB to ease monetary policy
· ADP Employment Change: 191K – lower than expected. Consensus
195K. Previous 178K.
FLOWS (BONDS, EQUITIES, COMMODITIES)
US BONDS – 10 YR UST Down -0-13 at 99-18 YTM 2.802% 30 YR UST Down -0-22 at
99-20 YTM 3.645%
DJIA Up +40.39 at 16,573.00 (+0.24%) S&P Up +5.38 at 1,890.90 (+0.29%)
NASDAQ Up +8.42 at 4,276.46 (+0.20%)
GOLD Up +10.10 at 1,290.10 (+0.79%) WTI Down -.34 at 99.40 (-0.34%)
AMERICAS
Date Time
Event
Consensus
Actual
Previous
04/02/14 07:00
MBA Mortgage Applications
-1.20%
-3.50%
04/02/14 08:15
ADP Employment Change
195K
191K
178K
04/02/14 09:45
ISM New York
52
57
04/02/14 10:00
Factory Orders
1.20%
1.60%
-1.00%
· Reuters: Fed’s Lockhart says sustained three percent growth
would warrant rate hike. “The U.S. economy needs to be growing at roughly 3
percent in annual terms to justify a hike in interest rates by the Federal
Reserve in the second half of next year, a top Fed policymaker said on
Wednesday. In comments to a business event in Miami, Dennis Lockhart,
president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said he thinks the economy
will perform that well beginning in the current quarter. The faster
economic growth, he said, would help some part-time workers get more hours
at their jobs and also goad more people who are out of work to restart their
job hunts. Lockhart said he thought growth would trend at around a 3
percent annual rate in the second quarter of this year and beyond. Signs of
weak growth in the first quarter, he said, would likely prove temporary
because they were due to a severe winter.”
· WSJ: Private-Sector Adds Jobs, Moderate Job Growth Seen. “U.S.
businesses last month returned to the modest pace of hiring seen before
harsh winter weather curtailed job growth, a survey of private-sector hiring
said Wednesday. Private-sector payrolls in the U.S. increased by 191,000
new jobs in March, according to a national employment report compiled by
payroll processor Automatic Data Processing Inc. ADP -0.05% (ADP) and
forecasting firm Moody's Analytics. The result came in near the 200,000 new
jobs predicted by economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. The report
also flashed an optimistic sign for the pace of hiring by revising February
figures to 178,000 new jobs from the 139,000 reported a month ago.”
· Bloomberg: Yellen Jobs Dashboard Shows Rate Rise Far on Horizon:
Economy. “More than two-thirds of the gauges on Janet Yellen’s labor-
market dashboard are still showing worse readings than before the recession,
reinforcing her belief that the economy will need “extraordinary support”
from the Federal Reserve for “some time to come.” Only two of the nine
indicators flagged by the new Fed chair -- payroll growth and layoffs -- are
back to where they were in the four years leading up to the last economic
downturn. The seven others, including joblessness, underemployment and labor
-force participation, have yet to return to their 2004-to-2007 averages.”
WORLD
· Reuters: IMF’s Lagarde calls on ECB to ease monetary policy. “
The European Central Bank should ease monetary policy to combat the risk of
“low-flation” that could crimp euro zone output and consumer spending, the
head of the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday. IMF Managing
Director Christine Lagarde said the world's economy should pick up pace
above 3 percent this year and next. She warned, however, that the recovery
from the global financial crisis remained weak and that a prolonged period
of sluggish growth was a risk. She cited slow price growth in the euro zone,
geopolitical tensions in places like Ukraine, and market volatility as
factors that could drag on growth in the short-term. “In 2013, global
growth was about 3 percent; we project modest improvements in 2014 and 2015,
although still remaining below past trends,” Lagarde said in remarks
prepared for delivery at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International
Studies.”
· WSJ: Cyprus Bailout Remains on Track. “Cyprus remains on track
to implement its bailout program, the European Union's executive said in a
report Wednesday, with the country expected to return to growth next year.
In its third review of the country's 0 billion bailout program, the
European Commission said “Cyprus' program remains on track.” “Fiscal
targets for 2013 have been met with considerable margin due to both
continued prudent budget execution and a less severe recession that
anticipated,” the report said. The commission maintained its forecast that
the country's economy would shrink 4.8% this year and grow 0.9% in 2015.
Cyprus' economy is thought to have shrunk 6% last year. The commission also
said that despite very high levels of nonperforming loans, “signs of
stabilization are emerging in the banking sector, although significant
challenge remain.”
ECONOMIC/POLITICAL EVENTS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY:
Date Time
Country
Event
GS Forecast
Consensus
Previous
No Australia Releases
No New Zealand Releases
No Japan Releases
04/03/14 04:00
Eurozone
Markit Eurozone Services PMI
52.4
52.4
04/03/14 04:00
Eurozone
Markit Eurozone Composite PMI
53.2
53.2
04/03/14 04:30
Eurozone
Markit EU Composite PMI
54.5
04/03/14 04:30
Eurozone
Markit EU Services PMI
53.9
04/03/14 05:00
Eurozone
Retail Sales MoM
-0.50%
1.60%
04/03/14 05:00
Eurozone
Retail Sales YoY
0.70%
1.30%
04/03/14 07:45
Eurozone
ECB Announces Interest Rates
0.25%
0.25%
04/03/14 07:45
Eurozone
ECB Marginal Lending Facility
0.75%
0.75%
04/03/14 07:45
Eurozone
ECB Deposit Facility Rate
0.00%
0.00%
04/03/14 03:50
France
Markit France Composite PMI
51.6
51.6
04/03/14 03:50
France
Markit France Services PMI
51.4
51.4
04/03/14 03:55
Germany
Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI
55.0
55.0
04/03/14 03:55
Germany
Markit Germany Services PMI
54.0
54.0
04/03/14 03:45
Italy
Markit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI
53.4
04/03/14 03:45
Italy
Markit/ADACI Italy Services PMI
52.3
52.9
04/03/14 02:30
Sweden
PMI Services
56.5
56.8
04/03/14 04:30
United Kingdom
Official Reserves Changes
$1096M
04/03/14 04:30
United Kingdom
Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI
58.1
58.2
04/03/14 04:30
United Kingdom
Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI
58.2
58.2
04/03/14 04:30
United Kingdom
Credit Conditions Survey
04/03/14-04/08/14
United Kingdom
Halifax House Prices MoM
0.60%
2.40%
04/03/14-04/08/14
United Kingdom
Halifax House Price 3Mths/Year
9.40%
7.90%
04/03/14 07:30
United States
Challenger Job Cuts YoY
-24.40%
04/03/14 07:30
United States
RBC Consumer Outlook Index
51.8
04/03/14 08:30
United States
Jobless Claims Annual Revisions for Data From 2009-13
04/03/14 08:30
United States
Revisions for Initial Jobless Claims
04/03/14 08:30
United States
Trade Balance
-$39.0B
-$38.5B
-$39.1B
04/03/14 08:30
United States
Initial Jobless Claims
319K
311K
04/03/14 08:30
United States
Continuing Claims
2843K
2823K
04/03/14 09:45
United States
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
-31.5
04/03/14 09:45
United States
Markit US Services PMI
55.7
55.5
04/03/14 09:45
United States
Markit US Composite PMI
55.8
04/03/14 10:00
United States
ISM Non-Manf. Composite
53.5
53.5
51.6
04/03/14 08:30
Canada
Int'l Merchandise Trade
0.20B
-0.18B
微信公众平台 USOPTIONS
COMMENTS
· Equities put in another day for the faithful and make new highs
yet again. The bourses came cruising out of the gate following consensus ADP
numbers and positive revisions as investors focused their sights on the end
-of-week employment metrics. The good spirit was almost universally felt as
all but one sector finish in the green (Utilities small -0.16%). SPX and
Nasdaq now +2.5% for the year, while DJIA is back to flat. Closing levels:
SPX 4276.46 (+0.3%); DJIA 16573.00 (+0.2%); and Nasdaq 4276.46 (+0.2%).
· The VIX is basically unch, -0.01 to 13.09.
· EURUSD drifts lower ahead of tomorrow’s ECB. Perhaps some
anticipation of easing tomorrow – but selloff in US rates also gave the
dollar a boost. USDJPY goes out near the day’s high as length is added in
advance of Friday’s NFP. The dollar makes modest gains against EM too. Only
TRY bucks that trend. USDTRY to a new low for 2014. On the flipside for the
day are NZD and RUB with weakness driven by milk and the resumption of
FinMin FX purchases respectably.
· Appetite for risk assets lit the match and US rates took off as
the set up for NFP began to materialize. Morning flows echoed the broader
move as the UST desk saw better selling, though it was felt mostly in
futures. Data failed to turn heads but selling continued into the morning
before USTs hit a lull at lunch and dribbled marginally cheaper over the
course of the day. The desk saw demand for left side gamma as accounts
looked at short dated expiries on 5s. Further out the surface, expiries on
longer tenors met resistance despite little flow on the day. We expect this
vol flow to continue as more accounts position for payrolls.
· The earthquake in Chile overnight sent copper markets rearing
higher as shorts quickly covered their positions.. prices pulled back later
in the session to finish only +20bps as reports showed that Chilean mines
were only marginally impacted by the quake. Energy markets quickly pulling
back in early morning trading with Libyan rebels reporting that they were
meeting with Libyan govt. officials to discuss the reopening of Eastern
Libya ports which have been closed for several months.. nothing concrete
seems to have come from the meetings but the threat of more crude in the
European market kept the Brent complex lower for the rest of the day – flat
price finished down 92c at $104.70/bbl. DOE’s out today relatively
constructive for WTI with Cushing drawing by another 1.2mm bbls and a total
crude draw of 2.4mm bbls, while refinery runs moved 1.7% higher and gasoline
stocks drew more than expected at -1.5mm… WTI structure and flat price
finishing weaker on the session, mainly dragged down by the Brent weakness.
· Tomorrow brings US Non-man ISM, Claims, Markit Composite PMI, and
Trade Balance; Services PMI for the Euro Area, the US, and Brazil;
Composite PMI for the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Russia, and Brazil;
Eurozone Retail Sales; and Turkey CPI. In terms of policy, the ECB will
decide on monetary policy, and GS is calling for a small cut in the refi
rate to 0.10% (from 0.25%) and/or new liquidity measures.
HIGHLIGHTS
· Reuters: Fed’s Lockhart says sustained three percent growth
would warrant rate hike
· WSJ: Private-Sector Adds Jobs, Moderate Job Growth Seen
· Reuters: IMF’s Lagarde calls on ECB to ease monetary policy
· ADP Employment Change: 191K – lower than expected. Consensus
195K. Previous 178K.
FLOWS (BONDS, EQUITIES, COMMODITIES)
US BONDS – 10 YR UST Down -0-13 at 99-18 YTM 2.802% 30 YR UST Down -0-22 at
99-20 YTM 3.645%
DJIA Up +40.39 at 16,573.00 (+0.24%) S&P Up +5.38 at 1,890.90 (+0.29%)
NASDAQ Up +8.42 at 4,276.46 (+0.20%)
GOLD Up +10.10 at 1,290.10 (+0.79%) WTI Down -.34 at 99.40 (-0.34%)
AMERICAS
Date Time
Event
Consensus
Actual
Previous
04/02/14 07:00
MBA Mortgage Applications
-1.20%
-3.50%
04/02/14 08:15
ADP Employment Change
195K
191K
178K
04/02/14 09:45
ISM New York
52
57
04/02/14 10:00
Factory Orders
1.20%
1.60%
-1.00%
· Reuters: Fed’s Lockhart says sustained three percent growth
would warrant rate hike. “The U.S. economy needs to be growing at roughly 3
percent in annual terms to justify a hike in interest rates by the Federal
Reserve in the second half of next year, a top Fed policymaker said on
Wednesday. In comments to a business event in Miami, Dennis Lockhart,
president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said he thinks the economy
will perform that well beginning in the current quarter. The faster
economic growth, he said, would help some part-time workers get more hours
at their jobs and also goad more people who are out of work to restart their
job hunts. Lockhart said he thought growth would trend at around a 3
percent annual rate in the second quarter of this year and beyond. Signs of
weak growth in the first quarter, he said, would likely prove temporary
because they were due to a severe winter.”
· WSJ: Private-Sector Adds Jobs, Moderate Job Growth Seen. “U.S.
businesses last month returned to the modest pace of hiring seen before
harsh winter weather curtailed job growth, a survey of private-sector hiring
said Wednesday. Private-sector payrolls in the U.S. increased by 191,000
new jobs in March, according to a national employment report compiled by
payroll processor Automatic Data Processing Inc. ADP -0.05% (ADP) and
forecasting firm Moody's Analytics. The result came in near the 200,000 new
jobs predicted by economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. The report
also flashed an optimistic sign for the pace of hiring by revising February
figures to 178,000 new jobs from the 139,000 reported a month ago.”
· Bloomberg: Yellen Jobs Dashboard Shows Rate Rise Far on Horizon:
Economy. “More than two-thirds of the gauges on Janet Yellen’s labor-
market dashboard are still showing worse readings than before the recession,
reinforcing her belief that the economy will need “extraordinary support”
from the Federal Reserve for “some time to come.” Only two of the nine
indicators flagged by the new Fed chair -- payroll growth and layoffs -- are
back to where they were in the four years leading up to the last economic
downturn. The seven others, including joblessness, underemployment and labor
-force participation, have yet to return to their 2004-to-2007 averages.”
WORLD
· Reuters: IMF’s Lagarde calls on ECB to ease monetary policy. “
The European Central Bank should ease monetary policy to combat the risk of
“low-flation” that could crimp euro zone output and consumer spending, the
head of the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday. IMF Managing
Director Christine Lagarde said the world's economy should pick up pace
above 3 percent this year and next. She warned, however, that the recovery
from the global financial crisis remained weak and that a prolonged period
of sluggish growth was a risk. She cited slow price growth in the euro zone,
geopolitical tensions in places like Ukraine, and market volatility as
factors that could drag on growth in the short-term. “In 2013, global
growth was about 3 percent; we project modest improvements in 2014 and 2015,
although still remaining below past trends,” Lagarde said in remarks
prepared for delivery at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International
Studies.”
· WSJ: Cyprus Bailout Remains on Track. “Cyprus remains on track
to implement its bailout program, the European Union's executive said in a
report Wednesday, with the country expected to return to growth next year.
In its third review of the country's 0 billion bailout program, the
European Commission said “Cyprus' program remains on track.” “Fiscal
targets for 2013 have been met with considerable margin due to both
continued prudent budget execution and a less severe recession that
anticipated,” the report said. The commission maintained its forecast that
the country's economy would shrink 4.8% this year and grow 0.9% in 2015.
Cyprus' economy is thought to have shrunk 6% last year. The commission also
said that despite very high levels of nonperforming loans, “signs of
stabilization are emerging in the banking sector, although significant
challenge remain.”
ECONOMIC/POLITICAL EVENTS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY:
Date Time
Country
Event
GS Forecast
Consensus
Previous
No Australia Releases
No New Zealand Releases
No Japan Releases
04/03/14 04:00
Eurozone
Markit Eurozone Services PMI
52.4
52.4
04/03/14 04:00
Eurozone
Markit Eurozone Composite PMI
53.2
53.2
04/03/14 04:30
Eurozone
Markit EU Composite PMI
54.5
04/03/14 04:30
Eurozone
Markit EU Services PMI
53.9
04/03/14 05:00
Eurozone
Retail Sales MoM
-0.50%
1.60%
04/03/14 05:00
Eurozone
Retail Sales YoY
0.70%
1.30%
04/03/14 07:45
Eurozone
ECB Announces Interest Rates
0.25%
0.25%
04/03/14 07:45
Eurozone
ECB Marginal Lending Facility
0.75%
0.75%
04/03/14 07:45
Eurozone
ECB Deposit Facility Rate
0.00%
0.00%
04/03/14 03:50
France
Markit France Composite PMI
51.6
51.6
04/03/14 03:50
France
Markit France Services PMI
51.4
51.4
04/03/14 03:55
Germany
Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI
55.0
55.0
04/03/14 03:55
Germany
Markit Germany Services PMI
54.0
54.0
04/03/14 03:45
Italy
Markit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI
53.4
04/03/14 03:45
Italy
Markit/ADACI Italy Services PMI
52.3
52.9
04/03/14 02:30
Sweden
PMI Services
56.5
56.8
04/03/14 04:30
United Kingdom
Official Reserves Changes
$1096M
04/03/14 04:30
United Kingdom
Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI
58.1
58.2
04/03/14 04:30
United Kingdom
Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI
58.2
58.2
04/03/14 04:30
United Kingdom
Credit Conditions Survey
04/03/14-04/08/14
United Kingdom
Halifax House Prices MoM
0.60%
2.40%
04/03/14-04/08/14
United Kingdom
Halifax House Price 3Mths/Year
9.40%
7.90%
04/03/14 07:30
United States
Challenger Job Cuts YoY
-24.40%
04/03/14 07:30
United States
RBC Consumer Outlook Index
51.8
04/03/14 08:30
United States
Jobless Claims Annual Revisions for Data From 2009-13
04/03/14 08:30
United States
Revisions for Initial Jobless Claims
04/03/14 08:30
United States
Trade Balance
-$39.0B
-$38.5B
-$39.1B
04/03/14 08:30
United States
Initial Jobless Claims
319K
311K
04/03/14 08:30
United States
Continuing Claims
2843K
2823K
04/03/14 09:45
United States
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
-31.5
04/03/14 09:45
United States
Markit US Services PMI
55.7
55.5
04/03/14 09:45
United States
Markit US Composite PMI
55.8
04/03/14 10:00
United States
ISM Non-Manf. Composite
53.5
53.5
51.6
04/03/14 08:30
Canada
Int'l Merchandise Trade
0.20B
-0.18B