R*w
2 楼
All in $3.3 in Mid April, 80% out at 3.56 before Thursday Report. Added some
Dgaz Thursday after report at $3.17.
天然气MM太坏! let me Vacation one month, anyway, got around 10% profit...
天然气下周:NG price should be around $4.35-$4.55 (may reach to up $4.6, or
down to $4.3 area shortly) next week, May 25th is the June contract
expiration date. Last year June NG price closed around $4.3. This year June
close price should be higher than last year because of Inventory (probably
around $4.5 for June contract price).
The week real inject is 105B, however, EIA make Reclassifications that 8B as
working gas, see the following link of EIA expectation, you can understand
the intention of EIA.
http://www.platts.com/pressreleases/2014/051414.
Next week report, Supply increase 0.86%, demand decrease 2.3% than last week
, 80% Nuclear and Coal power maintaince done and back online,Inject should
be over 108B, however, it is not mean NG price will fall after report, check
the press release for EIA expectation late Wed (May 21th) to make your
decision keep long or short before report.
After June contract expiration, situation probably will change, a few 3
digit Injection, Inventory will be over 1500B at end of May, NG price long
term depends on supply/Demand, Inventory, weather (Short term depends on MM
how to play the game).
Time play for NG bear now (mild summer and large Injection),I'm holding 2/3
Cash, will re-enter Dgaz when NG price reach around $4.55, Dgaz mostly
around $3.00-$3.10, if lucky hoping I can get in below $3..Ugaz should be
around $25.2 ( good point to short).
天然气下周: my opinion: When NG down to $4.35 then long, when NG up to $4.55
area, then short...
Good luck!
【在 I**C 的大作中提到】
: 是上还是下？
: 请回帖
: 统计后
: 按多数人的意见
: 反向做
Dgaz Thursday after report at $3.17.
天然气MM太坏! let me Vacation one month, anyway, got around 10% profit...
天然气下周:NG price should be around $4.35-$4.55 (may reach to up $4.6, or
down to $4.3 area shortly) next week, May 25th is the June contract
expiration date. Last year June NG price closed around $4.3. This year June
close price should be higher than last year because of Inventory (probably
around $4.5 for June contract price).
The week real inject is 105B, however, EIA make Reclassifications that 8B as
working gas, see the following link of EIA expectation, you can understand
the intention of EIA.
http://www.platts.com/pressreleases/2014/051414.
Next week report, Supply increase 0.86%, demand decrease 2.3% than last week
, 80% Nuclear and Coal power maintaince done and back online,Inject should
be over 108B, however, it is not mean NG price will fall after report, check
the press release for EIA expectation late Wed (May 21th) to make your
decision keep long or short before report.
After June contract expiration, situation probably will change, a few 3
digit Injection, Inventory will be over 1500B at end of May, NG price long
term depends on supply/Demand, Inventory, weather (Short term depends on MM
how to play the game).
Time play for NG bear now (mild summer and large Injection),I'm holding 2/3
Cash, will re-enter Dgaz when NG price reach around $4.55, Dgaz mostly
around $3.00-$3.10, if lucky hoping I can get in below $3..Ugaz should be
around $25.2 ( good point to short).
天然气下周: my opinion: When NG down to $4.35 then long, when NG up to $4.55
area, then short...
Good luck!
【在 I**C 的大作中提到】
: 是上还是下？
: 请回帖
: 统计后
: 按多数人的意见
: 反向做
I*C
3 楼
老大你怎么挺过来的？
3.3入的，最低降到过2.6吧？
中间加仓了么？
一个月挣10%好牛啊
这个天然气，好像大家都在挣钱
但是我的入点不是过早就是太晚
现在还损几个百分点
some
June
as
understand
【在 R******w 的大作中提到】
: All in $3.3 in Mid April, 80% out at 3.56 before Thursday Report. Added some
: Dgaz Thursday after report at $3.17.
: 天然气MM太坏! let me Vacation one month, anyway, got around 10% profit...
: 天然气下周:NG price should be around $4.35-$4.55 (may reach to up $4.6, or
: down to $4.3 area shortly) next week, May 25th is the June contract
: expiration date. Last year June NG price closed around $4.3. This year June
: close price should be higher than last year because of Inventory (probably
: around $4.5 for June contract price).
: The week real inject is 105B, however, EIA make Reclassifications that 8B as
: working gas, see the following link of EIA expectation, you can understand
3.3入的，最低降到过2.6吧？
中间加仓了么？
一个月挣10%好牛啊
这个天然气，好像大家都在挣钱
但是我的入点不是过早就是太晚
现在还损几个百分点
some
June
as
understand
【在 R******w 的大作中提到】
: All in $3.3 in Mid April, 80% out at 3.56 before Thursday Report. Added some
: Dgaz Thursday after report at $3.17.
: 天然气MM太坏! let me Vacation one month, anyway, got around 10% profit...
: 天然气下周:NG price should be around $4.35-$4.55 (may reach to up $4.6, or
: down to $4.3 area shortly) next week, May 25th is the June contract
: expiration date. Last year June NG price closed around $4.3. This year June
: close price should be higher than last year because of Inventory (probably
: around $4.5 for June contract price).
: The week real inject is 105B, however, EIA make Reclassifications that 8B as
: working gas, see the following link of EIA expectation, you can understand
s*d
4 楼
看多 这个夏天会很热。
【在 I**C 的大作中提到】
: 老大你怎么挺过来的？
: 3.3入的，最低降到过2.6吧？
: 中间加仓了么？
: 一个月挣10%好牛啊
: 这个天然气，好像大家都在挣钱
: 但是我的入点不是过早就是太晚
: 现在还损几个百分点
:
: some
: June
【在 I**C 的大作中提到】
: 老大你怎么挺过来的？
: 3.3入的，最低降到过2.6吧？
: 中间加仓了么？
: 一个月挣10%好牛啊
: 这个天然气，好像大家都在挣钱
: 但是我的入点不是过早就是太晚
: 现在还损几个百分点
:
: some
: June
I*C
5 楼
下周涨？ 夏天跌？
【在 s***d 的大作中提到】
: 看多 这个夏天会很热。
【在 s***d 的大作中提到】
: 看多 这个夏天会很热。
s*d
6 楼
加州干旱 用电肯定新高 天然气也发电
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.8
【在 I**C 的大作中提到】
: 下周涨？ 夏天跌？
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.8
【在 I**C 的大作中提到】
: 下周涨？ 夏天跌？
R*w
7 楼
I sold 1/2 ($3.28) once before Thursday Reports (April 17th), and bought
back after Inventory report ($2.86). and Sold 1/2 April 25th ($2.95) before
weekend and bought back at April 29th ($2.66), this is 2 successful trade I
made during this period. this Average Down.
Added some Dgaz at $3.15 yesterday, this week inventory report should be 3
digits. mostly like >108B, it is large Inject, I usually check EIA
expectation and First EnterCast Financial estimate (see following link), 3
rigs added last week.
http://www.firstenercastfinancial.com/
However, I'm feeling MM may still pull-up the NG price this week after
inventory report (no reason, MM seem still want to kill bears this week), I'
ll probably sell 1/2 Dgaz before the Reports if the NG down to $4.35 area.
After this week, next 2 months ( June and July) should be good for Dgaz, The
next 4 week injections will be between 105 to 125 BCF per week. Summer will
be mild, a few over 100B injection should push the NG price down to $4.2
area, probably end of May or early June...
【在 I**C 的大作中提到】
: 老大你怎么挺过来的？
: 3.3入的，最低降到过2.6吧？
: 中间加仓了么？
: 一个月挣10%好牛啊
: 这个天然气，好像大家都在挣钱
: 但是我的入点不是过早就是太晚
: 现在还损几个百分点
:
: some
: June
back after Inventory report ($2.86). and Sold 1/2 April 25th ($2.95) before
weekend and bought back at April 29th ($2.66), this is 2 successful trade I
made during this period. this Average Down.
Added some Dgaz at $3.15 yesterday, this week inventory report should be 3
digits. mostly like >108B, it is large Inject, I usually check EIA
expectation and First EnterCast Financial estimate (see following link), 3
rigs added last week.
http://www.firstenercastfinancial.com/
However, I'm feeling MM may still pull-up the NG price this week after
inventory report (no reason, MM seem still want to kill bears this week), I'
ll probably sell 1/2 Dgaz before the Reports if the NG down to $4.35 area.
After this week, next 2 months ( June and July) should be good for Dgaz, The
next 4 week injections will be between 105 to 125 BCF per week. Summer will
be mild, a few over 100B injection should push the NG price down to $4.2
area, probably end of May or early June...
【在 I**C 的大作中提到】
: 老大你怎么挺过来的？
: 3.3入的，最低降到过2.6吧？
: 中间加仓了么？
: 一个月挣10%好牛啊
: 这个天然气，好像大家都在挣钱
: 但是我的入点不是过早就是太晚
: 现在还损几个百分点
:
: some
: June
R*w
8 楼
Haha, I'm in the opposite, Summer will be mild, NG Injection 8% more than
last year, more Rigs will be Added on North Dakota this summer soon. Supply/
demand will be reverse.
El Niño will come to North America (Mostly October) which will cause
warmer winter, If El Niño come in October or November, NG will go
down to $3.0- $3.5.
【在 s***d 的大作中提到】
: 看多 这个夏天会很热。
last year, more Rigs will be Added on North Dakota this summer soon. Supply/
demand will be reverse.
El Niño will come to North America (Mostly October) which will cause
warmer winter, If El Niño come in October or November, NG will go
down to $3.0- $3.5.
【在 s***d 的大作中提到】
: 看多 这个夏天会很热。
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