p*r
6 楼
Yes, keep close eye one the oil price, OPEC activities and US shale oil
companies. Mostly like we will see the opportunity of getting 3-5X return
from some small oil E&P companies.
companies. Mostly like we will see the opportunity of getting 3-5X return
from some small oil E&P companies.
o*1
9 楼
中国国航和南航昨天都涨停, 我估计还有一波
b*d
11 楼
哥不会等不到黎明到来了把?。。。
前两天木忍住,卖了一些,又买了一堆油股。。。今天跌了稀里哗啦啊
前两天木忍住,卖了一些,又买了一堆油股。。。今天跌了稀里哗啦啊
c*w
13 楼
前几年天然气公司批量破产是个昨天的写照
这种周线直线坠落不带坎,跌倒a猫a狗都不认识了的走法,基本不太可能深v。
best scenario是跌到不能再跌了,反弹之后开始低位channel横向长期盘整
低位channel横向长期盘整,意味着一轮漫长的石油公司批量破产
前几年天然气公司批量破产是个昨天的写照
这种周线直线坠落不带坎,跌倒a猫a狗都不认识了的走法,基本不太可能深v。
best scenario是跌到不能再跌了,反弹之后开始低位channel横向长期盘整
低位channel横向长期盘整,意味着一轮漫长的石油公司批量破产
前几年天然气公司批量破产是个昨天的写照
O*p
14 楼
油价下60的时候,基金破产
油价下50的时候,公司破产
油价下40的时候,国家破产
油价下30的时候,股市破产
油价下50的时候,公司破产
油价下40的时候,国家破产
油价下30的时候,股市破产
c*w
16 楼
就算要炒反弹,也得直接上石油
jnug和gld的走法是今天的写照
jnug和gld的走法是今天的写照
N*d
17 楼
12年初银行被打压,12年底计算机硬件被打压,现在是石油。
这些跟经济密切相关的板块,迟早会回来的。因为相关公司加起来市值巨大,除了很多
大庄联手,还要靠制造舆论。
这些跟经济密切相关的板块,迟早会回来的。因为相关公司加起来市值巨大,除了很多
大庄联手,还要靠制造舆论。
b*e
20 楼
Jung不是马上要reverse split了?又有了新的下跌空间
a*1
23 楼
I agree and the reason is storage. Gold is much easier to store than oil.
Thus GLD buys physical gold while USO buys future. In the case of contango,
you lose value over time quickly.
The oversupply of oil is much easier to correct than gold (and natural gas).
I would predict that correction in oil should be much faster than gold as
gold has no physical use.
Shale oil loses productivity about 60-80% in the first year. If CapEX cut 25
% in 2015, the oil production is barely enough to maintain 2014 level. And
that is enough to balance the world wide supply and demand later in 2015.
Deeper cut in 2015 will restore balance faster.
Right now is the momentum selling and tax selling. My prediction is that oil
will bottom at the turn of the year.If you want to see the full picture,
just look at nature gas price from Jun 2008 on. Again, oil will be better
than nature gas because we are just flooded with nature gas with both gas
wells and oil wells.
History never repeats but rhymes --- Mark Twin.
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
:
: 怎么直接上石油 ? 石油没有像 GLD 一样的东西。
: jnug 是 3X 指数,有太多的 time value.
: USO 也是期指,跟 GLD 不一样。 根本不能碰。
: 我在 2009 年,油价$40 多时, $35-$37 买过 USO,
: 油价涨,但它不涨。有时还跌,就扔了。
: 这两年油价在 $100 左右,USO 也只是 $40 左右。
Thus GLD buys physical gold while USO buys future. In the case of contango,
you lose value over time quickly.
The oversupply of oil is much easier to correct than gold (and natural gas).
I would predict that correction in oil should be much faster than gold as
gold has no physical use.
Shale oil loses productivity about 60-80% in the first year. If CapEX cut 25
% in 2015, the oil production is barely enough to maintain 2014 level. And
that is enough to balance the world wide supply and demand later in 2015.
Deeper cut in 2015 will restore balance faster.
Right now is the momentum selling and tax selling. My prediction is that oil
will bottom at the turn of the year.If you want to see the full picture,
just look at nature gas price from Jun 2008 on. Again, oil will be better
than nature gas because we are just flooded with nature gas with both gas
wells and oil wells.
History never repeats but rhymes --- Mark Twin.
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
:
: 怎么直接上石油 ? 石油没有像 GLD 一样的东西。
: jnug 是 3X 指数,有太多的 time value.
: USO 也是期指,跟 GLD 不一样。 根本不能碰。
: 我在 2009 年,油价$40 多时, $35-$37 买过 USO,
: 油价涨,但它不涨。有时还跌,就扔了。
: 这两年油价在 $100 左右,USO 也只是 $40 左右。
O*p
24 楼
Right now too many institutions and hedge funds are shorting oil and oil
companies, if one day Saudi surprises the market by annoucing production cut
, the short squeeze will be no less epic than the fall we saw recently.
companies, if one day Saudi surprises the market by annoucing production cut
, the short squeeze will be no less epic than the fall we saw recently.
a*1
25 楼
Well said. The million dollar question is when.
Saudi might have already made money on the way down, there is no reason they
won't make the same amount of money on the way up.
cut
【在 O***p 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: Right now too many institutions and hedge funds are shorting oil and oil
: companies, if one day Saudi surprises the market by annoucing production cut
: , the short squeeze will be no less epic than the fall we saw recently.
Saudi might have already made money on the way down, there is no reason they
won't make the same amount of money on the way up.
cut
【在 O***p 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: Right now too many institutions and hedge funds are shorting oil and oil
: companies, if one day Saudi surprises the market by annoucing production cut
: , the short squeeze will be no less epic than the fall we saw recently.
x*s
26 楼
喜欢这种有技术含量的帖子。问个问题,有人能列出一些比较好的和石油相关的公司以
及比较差的有可能破产的公司好吗?
及比较差的有可能破产的公司好吗?
m*n
27 楼
可USO已经跌得很惨了,这个时候还要甩掉还是留着等哪怕回到30+?以后也不敢碰这种
股票了。
股票了。
a*1
28 楼
100% sell.
Oil might bounce back, but not USO. With current contango, the value will
drop very fast. And I don't see quick rebounce.
If you want to bet on quick oil bounce, buy E&P that is about to bankrupt.
PWE, PGH, GDP, HK... The list can go on.
【在 m****n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 可USO已经跌得很惨了,这个时候还要甩掉还是留着等哪怕回到30+?以后也不敢碰这种
: 股票了。
Oil might bounce back, but not USO. With current contango, the value will
drop very fast. And I don't see quick rebounce.
If you want to bet on quick oil bounce, buy E&P that is about to bankrupt.
PWE, PGH, GDP, HK... The list can go on.
【在 m****n 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 可USO已经跌得很惨了,这个时候还要甩掉还是留着等哪怕回到30+?以后也不敢碰这种
: 股票了。
p*r
30 楼
今天 PGH 牛啊, 逆势反涨。 看了它的材料,好像不错。
77% of 2014 oil production hedged at $84 US dollar(也没几天了).
63% of 2015 oil production hedge at $83 US dollar.
33% of 2016 oil production hedge at $83 US dollar.
只要油在明年反弹到 $80, 它的新油田就可大赚。 它的新油田是 heavy oil,
much less competition from US shale oil. 好像预估开采成本不到 $50/b.
唯一的 concern 是 debt 大了些, $1.5B, 但在 2017 年后才开始还。
able101, 你看它如何 ?
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 100% sell.
: Oil might bounce back, but not USO. With current contango, the value will
: drop very fast. And I don't see quick rebounce.
: If you want to bet on quick oil bounce, buy E&P that is about to bankrupt.
: PWE, PGH, GDP, HK... The list can go on.
a*1
31 楼
你跟我想的一样。
早上开盘买了。比PWE强。
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t0/Stock/35930043.html
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
:
: 今天 PGH 牛啊, 逆势反涨。 看了它的材料,好像不错。
: 77% of 2014 oil production hedged at $84 US dollar(也没几天了).
: 63% of 2015 oil production hedge at $83 US dollar.
: 33% of 2016 oil production hedge at $83 US dollar.
: 只要油在明年反弹到 $80, 它的新油田就可大赚。 它的新油田是 heavy oil,
: much less competition from US shale oil. 好像预估开采成本不到 $50/b.
: 唯一的 concern 是 debt 大了些, $1.5B, 但在 2017 年后才开始还。
: able101, 你看它如何 ?
早上开盘买了。比PWE强。
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t0/Stock/35930043.html
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
:
: 今天 PGH 牛啊, 逆势反涨。 看了它的材料,好像不错。
: 77% of 2014 oil production hedged at $84 US dollar(也没几天了).
: 63% of 2015 oil production hedge at $83 US dollar.
: 33% of 2016 oil production hedge at $83 US dollar.
: 只要油在明年反弹到 $80, 它的新油田就可大赚。 它的新油田是 heavy oil,
: much less competition from US shale oil. 好像预估开采成本不到 $50/b.
: 唯一的 concern 是 debt 大了些, $1.5B, 但在 2017 年后才开始还。
: able101, 你看它如何 ?
p*r
32 楼
今天很多油股逆势反涨,是不是预示油价差不多到底了。
在这个价位($57),Opec 很多成员国要急了,这是清仓价啊.
等于给石油进口国送钱啊。 美国一半以上 shale oil
是亏的如果低于 $60.
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 你跟我想的一样。
: 早上开盘买了。比PWE强。
: http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t0/Stock/35930043.html
p*r
33 楼
US 这星期 Rig Count 比上星期 少了 27,这个趋势会继续。
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