转一篇比较有意思的文字:很长
March 10, 2015
Six Days Until Bond Market Crash Begins
By EconMatters
Run for the Exits
Early on Tuesday morning, realizing this was going to be a robust selloff
in equities, the ‘smart money’, i.e., the big banks, investments banks,
hedge funds and the like, ran to the old staple of buying bonds hand over
fist with little regard for the yield they are getting paid for stepping in
front of the freight train of rate rises coming down the tracks.
FOMC Meeting & Press Conference
Just six days away from the most important FOMC meeting in the last seven
years, and another 300k employment report in the rear view mirror, this
looks like an excellent place to hide for nervous investors who have far
more money than they have grains of common sense. Newsflash for these
investors, yes markets are over-valued, and you need to get out of Apple,
and about 100 other high flying overpriced momentum stocks, but you can`t
hide out in bonds this time. That party is over, and next Wednesday`s FOMC
meeting is going to make this point abundantly clear.
Read More >> The Bond Market Has Reached Tulip Bubble Proportions
Cash is King
There is no place to hide except cash. You should have thought about that
before you gorged yourself on ZIRP to the point where you have pushed stocks
and bonds to unsupportable price levels, and you keep begging for the Fed
to stall just another six months, so you can continue to buy more stocks and
bonds. Well you have done an excellent job hoodwinking the Fed to wait
until June, you should thank your lucky stars you have done such a good job
manipulating the Federal Reserve; but just like the boy crying wolf, this
strategy loses its effectiveness over time.
Red More >> Cushing and Gulf Coast Storage Filling Up Fast
Throwing another temper tantrum right before another important FOMC meeting
hoping that Janet Yellen will be alarmed by these Pre-FOMC Selloffs to put
off another six months the inevitable rate hike, this blackmail strategy has
run its course. The Fed is forced to finally start the Rate Hiking Cycle
after 7 plus years of Recession era Fed policies by an overheating labor
market.
Denial is a Powerful Drug
You knew this day was going to come, but most of you are still in denial.
What the heck were you buying 10-year bonds with a 1.6% yield five months
before a rate hike?? You only have yourself to blame for the 65 basis point
backup in yields on that disaster of an “Investment”. But really what were
you thinking here?? That is the problem when the Fed has incentivized such
poor investment decisions and poor allocation of capital to useful, growth
oriented projects over the past 7 plus years of ZIRP that these ‘investors
’ don`t think at all, they have become behaviorally trained ZIRP Crack
Addicts!
But the Dollar is Strong, our Currency is holding too much of a store of its
value
They can cry over the strong dollar, have a couple of 300 point Dow Selloffs
, scare monger over Europe or Emerging Market currencies, but the fact is
that the due date has come on your stupidity. You bought all this crap, and
now you have to sell it! Well too freaking bad, boo hoo, you shouldn`t have
bought so many worthless stocks and bonds at unsustainable levels in the
first place. Well the Fed cannot save you from your stupidity forever, and
that day of reckoning has finally come, rates are going to rise in the
United States of America!
Read More >> The Fed Waited Too Long: Here Comes Inflation
D-DAY for Bondholders
Six more days and counting until all those hiding out in Bonds will start to
realize that the Fed Funds Rate is going to be higher than their precious
yield play of the worthless paper that they are holding onto for dear life.
Like a junkie in a state of denial with their crack pipe and there's no
more ZIRP to save them from their poor investment decisions. You play with
fire long enough, and eventually you get burned!