CHK - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

a*12015-06-12 07:06

1 楼

CHK has a strong balance sheet and is not going to bankrupt. However, with
about 80% NG vs 20% liquid and the pricing of NG depressed as is, it is very
difficult for it go back to $20 in the near term.
NG trend is going up regardless of what the short term price is. However,
there are two things against CHK. One is the differential CHK realized NG
price vs Henry Hub. With the HH spot price of $2.8, CHK only realizes about
$1.5 for 50% of the NG it produces. As a matter of fact, more than 90% of
the NG it sells are below the HH price.
The other part is the fixed long term contract for mid-stream transportation
cost CHK committed. That might be related to the issue I mentioned above,
but as long as the realized NG price stays below $3, CHK is losing money.
The more it produces, the more it losses money.
CHK is dying, long live CHK!

T*R2015-06-12 07:06

2 楼

其实都是MM在演戏。
那些油气田是实实在在的，
就和以前国企改革一样，资产评估完都是负的，然后一转手就发财了。
现在就是有人想多占些CHK的份额，把散户给震出去。就看谁耗得过谁了。
做OPTION的就要小心了。

a*o2015-06-12 07:06

3 楼

What about the hedge position for CHK this year?

very
about
transportation

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: CHK has a strong balance sheet and is not going to bankrupt. However, with
: about 80% NG vs 20% liquid and the pricing of NG depressed as is, it is very
: difficult for it go back to $20 in the near term.
: NG trend is going up regardless of what the short term price is. However,
: there are two things against CHK. One is the differential CHK realized NG
: price vs Henry Hub. With the HH spot price of $2.8, CHK only realizes about
: $1.5 for 50% of the NG it produces. As a matter of fact, more than 90% of
: the NG it sells are below the HH price.
: The other part is the fixed long term contract for mid-stream transportation
: cost CHK committed. That might be related to the issue I mentioned above,

p*32015-06-12 07:06

4 楼

你说到实质。

【在 T*R 的大作中提到】

: 其实都是MM在演戏。
: 那些油气田是实实在在的，
: 就和以前国企改革一样，资产评估完都是负的，然后一转手就发财了。
: 现在就是有人想多占些CHK的份额，把散户给震出去。就看谁耗得过谁了。
: 做OPTION的就要小心了。

s*e2015-06-12 07:06

5 楼

现在气价这么低，怎么hedge呢？

【在 a****o 的大作中提到】

: What about the hedge position for CHK this year?
:
: very
: about
: transportation

t*y2015-06-12 07:06

6 楼

大牛，给几个a股的pick吧

【在 T*R 的大作中提到】

: 其实都是MM在演戏。
: 那些油气田是实实在在的，
: 就和以前国企改革一样，资产评估完都是负的，然后一转手就发财了。
: 现在就是有人想多占些CHK的份额，把散户给震出去。就看谁耗得过谁了。
: 做OPTION的就要小心了。

T*o2015-06-12 07:06

7 楼

这个分析的好，应该早点贴出来

u*n2015-06-12 07:06

8 楼

这chk估计马上就来个几空。。

t*y2015-06-12 07:06

9 楼

上个季报，chk说要关掉总共64个rig中的25-35个

very
about
transportation

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: CHK has a strong balance sheet and is not going to bankrupt. However, with
: about 80% NG vs 20% liquid and the pricing of NG depressed as is, it is very
: difficult for it go back to $20 in the near term.
: NG trend is going up regardless of what the short term price is. However,
: there are two things against CHK. One is the differential CHK realized NG
: price vs Henry Hub. With the HH spot price of $2.8, CHK only realizes about
: $1.5 for 50% of the NG it produces. As a matter of fact, more than 90% of
: the NG it sells are below the HH price.
: The other part is the fixed long term contract for mid-stream transportation
: cost CHK committed. That might be related to the issue I mentioned above,

a*12015-06-12 07:06

10 楼

At the end of Q1, Approximately 40% of the company's remaining projected
2015 natural gas production has downside protection at an average price of $
3.85 per one thousand cubic feet of natural gas (mcf), of which 14% is
hedged under three-way collar arrangements based on an average bought put
NYMEX price of $4.17 per mcf and exposure below an average sold put NYMEX
price of $3.38 per mcf.

【在 a****o 的大作中提到】

: What about the hedge position for CHK this year?
:
: very
: about
: transportation

T*R2015-06-12 07:06

11 楼

？？
XXR有个股pick。
我只买ASHR，老婆连CHAU都不让买。

【在 t****y 的大作中提到】

: 大牛，给几个a股的pick吧

x*92015-06-12 07:06

12 楼

看似MM不把CHK甩到10以下不会罢手呀。。。能捞在10以下大家就真的有福了
后面千军万马等着上它呢

T*R2015-06-12 07:06

13 楼

CHK碰10还是有可能的。
下一个季报后还得跌一段。
油气股今年的大反弹我个人觉得应该是在加息前，这样可以避免大盘过度暴跌，以利于
MM控盘。升早了，到时就没手段稳住大盘了。

s*e2015-06-12 07:06

14 楼

institutional ownership 已经 93% 了。没有多少散户 shares 好收割了吧？

【在 x****9 的大作中提到】

: 看似MM不把CHK甩到10以下不会罢手呀。。。能捞在10以下大家就真的有福了
: 后面千军万马等着上它呢

x*92015-06-12 07:06

15 楼

兄弟你泄露天机。。。小心象教授一样被消失

【在 T*R 的大作中提到】

: CHK碰10还是有可能的。
: 下一个季报后还得跌一段。
: 油气股今年的大反弹我个人觉得应该是在加息前，这样可以避免大盘过度暴跌，以利于
: MM控盘。升早了，到时就没手段稳住大盘了。

a*o2015-06-12 07:06

16 楼

Thanks!

$

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: At the end of Q1, Approximately 40% of the company's remaining projected
: 2015 natural gas production has downside protection at an average price of $
: 3.85 per one thousand cubic feet of natural gas (mcf), of which 14% is
: hedged under three-way collar arrangements based on an average bought put
: NYMEX price of $4.17 per mcf and exposure below an average sold put NYMEX
: price of $3.38 per mcf.

t*i2015-06-12 07:06

17 楼

晕死了，都说到10了。

a*h2015-06-12 07:06

18 楼

现在放量下跌，到10不是没可能

【在 t*******i 的大作中提到】

: 晕死了，都说到10了。

s*12015-06-12 07:06

19 楼

记得你说过history repeats，但是这个帖子意思CHK还要接着走一段下坡路，这次跟08
年应该不一样了

h*d2015-06-12 07:06

20 楼

都说到10，那就到不了10

【在 t*******i 的大作中提到】

: 晕死了，都说到10了。

a*12015-06-12 07:06

21 楼

This is what I quote:
History Does Not Repeat Itself, But It Rhymes---Mark Twain.
I was talking about oil and NG price and companies in general using CHK as
an indicator. I never meant to say the individual stock such as CHK was
going to repeat historical pattern. The oil and NG price and stock ETF
movement does rhymes with 2008-2009 movement.
CHK's bottom is falling out, it must rhyme with something, I just don't know
what it is this time. God bless.

08

【在 s******1 的大作中提到】

: 记得你说过history repeats，但是这个帖子意思CHK还要接着走一段下坡路，这次跟08
: 年应该不一样了

i*c2015-06-12 07:06

22 楼

好久不见able大牛露面
请教一下，为啥“CHK only realizes about $1.5 for 50% of the NG it produces.
”？

very
about
transportation

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: CHK has a strong balance sheet and is not going to bankrupt. However, with
: about 80% NG vs 20% liquid and the pricing of NG depressed as is, it is very
: difficult for it go back to $20 in the near term.
: NG trend is going up regardless of what the short term price is. However,
: there are two things against CHK. One is the differential CHK realized NG
: price vs Henry Hub. With the HH spot price of $2.8, CHK only realizes about
: $1.5 for 50% of the NG it produces. As a matter of fact, more than 90% of
: the NG it sells are below the HH price.
: The other part is the fixed long term contract for mid-stream transportation
: cost CHK committed. That might be related to the issue I mentioned above,

a*o2015-06-12 07:06

23 楼

实际到手的钱。

produces.

【在 i********c 的大作中提到】

: 好久不见able大牛露面
: 请教一下，为啥“CHK only realizes about $1.5 for 50% of the NG it produces.
: ”？
:
: very
: about
: transportation

i*c2015-06-12 07:06

24 楼

油田位置不好，运输成本太高？

【在 a****o 的大作中提到】

: 实际到手的钱。
:
: produces.

c*a2015-06-12 07:06

25 楼

CHK的Net Debt/EBITDA现在大概多少了？感觉near term的liquidity应该不是问题，也
没有default的风险。最大的问题还是像你说的，realized price太低了。

very
about
transportation

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: CHK has a strong balance sheet and is not going to bankrupt. However, with
: about 80% NG vs 20% liquid and the pricing of NG depressed as is, it is very
: difficult for it go back to $20 in the near term.
: NG trend is going up regardless of what the short term price is. However,
: there are two things against CHK. One is the differential CHK realized NG
: price vs Henry Hub. With the HH spot price of $2.8, CHK only realizes about
: $1.5 for 50% of the NG it produces. As a matter of fact, more than 90% of
: the NG it sells are below the HH price.
: The other part is the fixed long term contract for mid-stream transportation
: cost CHK committed. That might be related to the issue I mentioned above,

c*92015-06-12 07:06

26 楼

can they join A share?

a*12015-06-12 07:06

27 楼

Debt is not the problem, just look at its bond price, it is trading like AAA
rated company.

【在 c********a 的大作中提到】

: CHK的Net Debt/EBITDA现在大概多少了？感觉near term的liquidity应该不是问题，也
: 没有default的风险。最大的问题还是像你说的，realized price太低了。
:
: very
: about
: transportation

l*e2015-06-12 07:06

28 楼

mark

g*e2015-06-12 07:06

29 楼

就是说不会破产
但是明后年都是亏

a*12015-06-12 07:06

30 楼

short term is ugly and might go down below 10.
Long term is still solid, and you need to guess the oil and NG price before
give it a value to CHK.
TA is ugly, no bottom in sight.
FA is mixed. Sound management and Inside buying and Icahn support. Bad oil
and gas price.
Repeat, CHK is NOT going to bankrupt.

very
about
transportation

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: CHK has a strong balance sheet and is not going to bankrupt. However, with
: about 80% NG vs 20% liquid and the pricing of NG depressed as is, it is very
: difficult for it go back to $20 in the near term.
: NG trend is going up regardless of what the short term price is. However,
: there are two things against CHK. One is the differential CHK realized NG
: price vs Henry Hub. With the HH spot price of $2.8, CHK only realizes about
: $1.5 for 50% of the NG it produces. As a matter of fact, more than 90% of
: the NG it sells are below the HH price.
: The other part is the fixed long term contract for mid-stream transportation
: cost CHK committed. That might be related to the issue I mentioned above,

h*r2015-06-12 07:06

31 楼

able101的分析还是靠谱的。不过抄底真是很危险，谁知道哪里是底？

before

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: short term is ugly and might go down below 10.
: Long term is still solid, and you need to guess the oil and NG price before
: give it a value to CHK.
: TA is ugly, no bottom in sight.
: FA is mixed. Sound management and Inside buying and Icahn support. Bad oil
: and gas price.
: Repeat, CHK is NOT going to bankrupt.
:
: very
: about

l*e2015-06-12 07:06

32 楼

谢谢你的分析，希望能尽快到底反转！

before

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: short term is ugly and might go down below 10.
: Long term is still solid, and you need to guess the oil and NG price before
: give it a value to CHK.
: TA is ugly, no bottom in sight.
: FA is mixed. Sound management and Inside buying and Icahn support. Bad oil
: and gas price.
: Repeat, CHK is NOT going to bankrupt.
:
: very
: about

x*n2015-06-12 07:06

33 楼

你这个帖子，让我怀疑你是庄托。
呵呵呵。

【在 p*****3 的大作中提到】

: 你说到实质。

j*o2015-06-12 07:06

34 楼

油气田是实实在在的，但是保不齐公司可以先破产，然后把小股民wipe out，换个名字
再上市。看了今天的MCP，估计就是那样，矿都是还在的吧。。。当然估计CHK可能还不
至于破产，不过也不好说。。。

【在 T*R 的大作中提到】

: 其实都是MM在演戏。
: 那些油气田是实实在在的，
: 就和以前国企改革一样，资产评估完都是负的，然后一转手就发财了。
: 现在就是有人想多占些CHK的份额，把散户给震出去。就看谁耗得过谁了。
: 做OPTION的就要小心了。

a*12015-06-12 07:06

35 楼

不知道有多少人又栽在里头？

very
about
transportation

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: CHK has a strong balance sheet and is not going to bankrupt. However, with
: about 80% NG vs 20% liquid and the pricing of NG depressed as is, it is very
: difficult for it go back to $20 in the near term.
: NG trend is going up regardless of what the short term price is. However,
: there are two things against CHK. One is the differential CHK realized NG
: price vs Henry Hub. With the HH spot price of $2.8, CHK only realizes about
: $1.5 for 50% of the NG it produces. As a matter of fact, more than 90% of
: the NG it sells are below the HH price.
: The other part is the fixed long term contract for mid-stream transportation
: cost CHK committed. That might be related to the issue I mentioned above,

d*22015-06-12 07:06

36 楼

你觉得gas上面哪家比较好点?
CVX?
但是这货拿了很多cash会四处并购吧, 很影响股价吧.
还有很多小公司, 账面好看些, 但是很可能会public offerring筹钱买field吧.
这个时机该怎么把握?
等acquisition尘埃落定?

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: 不知道有多少人又栽在里头？
:
: very
: about
: transportation

a*12015-06-12 07:06

37 楼

SWN.

【在 d*********2 的大作中提到】

: 你觉得gas上面哪家比较好点?
: CVX?
: 但是这货拿了很多cash会四处并购吧, 很影响股价吧.
: 还有很多小公司, 账面好看些, 但是很可能会public offerring筹钱买field吧.
: 这个时机该怎么把握?
: 等acquisition尘埃落定?

H*s2015-06-12 07:06

38 楼

finviz 上面看chk 大概97% institution ownership，总共650M shrs，也就是只有3
% shrs （20M) 在外面， 30%+ short这些股票都是借来的，万一大家都买来hold，空
头怎么cover？？
现在每天的交易量都30M+,比实际全部available的shr还多，所以看现在交易量在不断
下降，等没有散户割肉，看空头就必然要抢着cover，是这样吗？

l*e2015-06-12 07:06

39 楼

这个97% institution ownership是上个财报后公布的，现在这些机构也许都套现了吧
，这能等下个财报才能看出机构持股。

有3

【在 H*******s 的大作中提到】

: finviz 上面看chk 大概97% institution ownership，总共650M shrs，也就是只有3
: % shrs （20M) 在外面， 30%+ short这些股票都是借来的，万一大家都买来hold，空
: 头怎么cover？？
: 现在每天的交易量都30M+,比实际全部available的shr还多，所以看现在交易量在不断
: 下降，等没有散户割肉，看空头就必然要抢着cover，是这样吗？

t*c2015-06-12 07:06

40 楼

这货我有一点，水下

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: SWN.

a*12015-06-12 07:06

41 楼

要赌可以买option了，以小博大。

very
about
transportation

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: CHK has a strong balance sheet and is not going to bankrupt. However, with
: about 80% NG vs 20% liquid and the pricing of NG depressed as is, it is very
: difficult for it go back to $20 in the near term.
: NG trend is going up regardless of what the short term price is. However,
: there are two things against CHK. One is the differential CHK realized NG
: price vs Henry Hub. With the HH spot price of $2.8, CHK only realizes about
: $1.5 for 50% of the NG it produces. As a matter of fact, more than 90% of
: the NG it sells are below the HH price.
: The other part is the fixed long term contract for mid-stream transportation
: cost CHK committed. That might be related to the issue I mentioned above,

a*12015-06-12 07:06

42 楼

10个月来第一次看见可以赌博的机会。

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: 要赌可以买option了，以小博大。
:
: very
: about
: transportation

t*c2015-06-12 07:06

43 楼

call 还是 put？

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: 要赌可以买option了，以小博大。
:
: very
: about
: transportation

a*12015-06-12 07:06

44 楼

Long term OTM call

【在 t**c 的大作中提到】

: call 还是 put？

a*12015-06-12 07:06

45 楼

自己顶一下。

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: Long term OTM call

d*m2015-06-12 07:06

46 楼

来顶一下 able 大牛。分析精彩，明确，不故弄玄虚。而且有理有据。
手里没有油股，但还是希望油价早点爬起来。毕竟也是在这个圈子里混饭吃。

w*k2015-06-12 07:06

47 楼

看ID就知道

【在 d*******m 的大作中提到】

: 来顶一下 able 大牛。分析精彩，明确，不故弄玄虚。而且有理有据。
: 手里没有油股，但还是希望油价早点爬起来。毕竟也是在这个圈子里混饭吃。