y*n
2 楼
没想到中国股市后劲挺大的。希望会软下来。
y*n
3 楼
呵呵，已经3.3%，希望继续下去。
T*R
4 楼
今天站上3200点，明天ASHR35块高开。
y*n
5 楼
即使上3200，明天ashr还是应该会跌。何况好像没有那么容易。
【在 T*R 的大作中提到】
: 今天站上3200点，明天ASHR35块高开。
【在 T*R 的大作中提到】
: 今天站上3200点，明天ASHR35块高开。
T*R
6 楼
不好说，如果今天涨5%以上，明天美股肯定也是涨。
ASHR会继续溢价，以前也不是没有过，最多都有10%+的情况。
两边大盘都涨的情况下，ASHR一般不会跌的。
如果下周美国银行股ER不好带动大盘下跌，那么有可能ASHR会不动，即使国内股市涨。
还有一个可能就是目前做空的OPTION量比较大，MM在逼空。
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
: 即使上3200，明天ashr还是应该会跌。何况好像没有那么容易。
ASHR会继续溢价，以前也不是没有过，最多都有10%+的情况。
两边大盘都涨的情况下，ASHR一般不会跌的。
如果下周美国银行股ER不好带动大盘下跌，那么有可能ASHR会不动，即使国内股市涨。
还有一个可能就是目前做空的OPTION量比较大，MM在逼空。
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
: 即使上3200，明天ashr还是应该会跌。何况好像没有那么容易。
y*n
7 楼
如果收在3150，明天ashr会是$33多一点，捞回2400股。
m*y
8 楼
太多人套了，应该有不少逃兵 啥意思？
谁被套了？
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
: 太多人套了，应该有不少逃兵。
谁被套了？
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
: 太多人套了，应该有不少逃兵。
T*R
9 楼
明天不可能低于34块的。
你要是真这么想，那你今天为什么不买点本周的PUT？35块的PUT才0.9
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
: 如果收在3150，明天ashr会是$33多一点，捞回2400股。
你要是真这么想，那你今天为什么不买点本周的PUT？35块的PUT才0.9
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
: 如果收在3150，明天ashr会是$33多一点，捞回2400股。
f*e
10 楼
应该不会跌，甚至可能小涨，但溢价肯定是大幅下降的。10%的情况是当时creation
unit不够，ASHR的MM流动性不足，现在不可能了。
【在 T*R 的大作中提到】
: 不好说，如果今天涨5%以上，明天美股肯定也是涨。
: ASHR会继续溢价，以前也不是没有过，最多都有10%+的情况。
: 两边大盘都涨的情况下，ASHR一般不会跌的。
: 如果下周美国银行股ER不好带动大盘下跌，那么有可能ASHR会不动，即使国内股市涨。
: 还有一个可能就是目前做空的OPTION量比较大，MM在逼空。
unit不够，ASHR的MM流动性不足，现在不可能了。
【在 T*R 的大作中提到】
: 不好说，如果今天涨5%以上，明天美股肯定也是涨。
: ASHR会继续溢价，以前也不是没有过，最多都有10%+的情况。
: 两边大盘都涨的情况下，ASHR一般不会跌的。
: 如果下周美国银行股ER不好带动大盘下跌，那么有可能ASHR会不动，即使国内股市涨。
: 还有一个可能就是目前做空的OPTION量比较大，MM在逼空。
y*n
11 楼
风险太大，搏0.9赚不到0.9,50%的机率都没有，不会做这个的。
【在 T*R 的大作中提到】
: 明天不可能低于34块的。
: 你要是真这么想，那你今天为什么不买点本周的PUT？35块的PUT才0.9
【在 T*R 的大作中提到】
: 明天不可能低于34块的。
: 你要是真这么想，那你今天为什么不买点本周的PUT？35块的PUT才0.9
y*n
12 楼
睡觉了，希望明天一早能捞到ashr残骸。
S*n
13 楼
只有3%，没救了。明天ashr会大跌
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
: 太多人套了，应该有不少逃兵。
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
: 太多人套了，应该有不少逃兵。
g*t
14 楼
追高的逻辑是什么呢？
我还是看不懂这次为啥反弹啊
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
: 睡觉了，希望明天一早能捞到ashr残骸。
我还是看不懂这次为啥反弹啊
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
: 睡觉了，希望明天一早能捞到ashr残骸。
g*t
15 楼
3200点有成交量peak
是不是套牢的，就见仁见智了
【在 m*****y 的大作中提到】
: 太多人套了，应该有不少逃兵 啥意思？
: 谁被套了？
是不是套牢的，就见仁见智了
【在 m*****y 的大作中提到】
: 太多人套了，应该有不少逃兵 啥意思？
: 谁被套了？
p*r
16 楼
ASHR涨了好几天了，明天估计是下跌的。
y*n
17 楼
我也不知道。大家都太看好A股了吧。不过有arbitrage的时机,我是不会放过的。
【在 g****t 的大作中提到】
: 追高的逻辑是什么呢？
: 我还是看不懂这次为啥反弹啊
【在 g****t 的大作中提到】
: 追高的逻辑是什么呢？
: 我还是看不懂这次为啥反弹啊
y*n
18 楼
我说的是散户，一有解套就跑路了。
【在 g****t 的大作中提到】
: 3200点有成交量peak
: 是不是套牢的，就见仁见智了
【在 g****t 的大作中提到】
: 3200点有成交量peak
: 是不是套牢的，就见仁见智了
T*R
19 楼
百万兄今天还捞吗？
y*n
20 楼
当然捞。捞回2400股
B*e
21 楼
你对土共很有信心啊。
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
: 当然捞。捞回2400股
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
: 当然捞。捞回2400股
y*n
22 楼
中国经济那么好，西媒还天天说不好，不要给他们洗脑了。
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
: 你对土共很有信心啊。
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
: 你对土共很有信心啊。
B*e
23 楼
Based on my own observation when I go back to China, Chinese economy has
serious structural issues that will make it the next Japan in the best
scenario. Too much bad loans and too much over investment in waste projects.
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
: 中国经济那么好，西媒还天天说不好，不要给他们洗脑了。
serious structural issues that will make it the next Japan in the best
scenario. Too much bad loans and too much over investment in waste projects.
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
: 中国经济那么好，西媒还天天说不好，不要给他们洗脑了。
y*n
24 楼
too much bad loans? Why don't you do a comparison with US and Europe banks.
Blindly reading news article without doing analysis yourself cannot give you
a true picture.
Again, same thing with over investment. You cannot take few investment
example and think it is like that everywhere in China. Real estate
investment is already slowed a lot even though demand is still there.
projects.
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
: Based on my own observation when I go back to China, Chinese economy has
: serious structural issues that will make it the next Japan in the best
: scenario. Too much bad loans and too much over investment in waste projects.
Blindly reading news article without doing analysis yourself cannot give you
a true picture.
Again, same thing with over investment. You cannot take few investment
example and think it is like that everywhere in China. Real estate
investment is already slowed a lot even though demand is still there.
projects.
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
: Based on my own observation when I go back to China, Chinese economy has
: serious structural issues that will make it the next Japan in the best
: scenario. Too much bad loans and too much over investment in waste projects.
y*n
25 楼
西媒喜欢抓住别人一点点东西，然后放的很大很大。自己非常大的问题放的很小很小。
B*e
26 楼
What if I tell you for at least one major state-owned bank 60% of the loan
on its loan books are zombie loans, which is higher than Citi, the zombiest
bank in the U.S.. I know this because I have insider information from this
particular bank.
Investment in excessive roads and bridges are universal in China. Only those
invested in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta may not be called
overinvestment, but they themselves cannot drive the economy to grow. The
three provinces in the Northeast have negative growth rates for the first
six months of this year and the middle part is slowing down. I am not really
talking about real estate investment but it is not helping either. The core
issue is the vested interest that is on the way of reforming to make the
economy more efficient. If this issue cannot be addressed, there is no hope
for China. Its consumers may still drive Chinese economy for a while, but
with very small economic growth this cannot sustain as Chinese consumers
cannot borrow as freely as the U.S.. Eventually all of the bad loans will
show up, making the bank reluctant to lend to anybody. Such reluctance
result in less projects being financed, contributing to slow economic growth
, resulting in more people not being able to repay their loan and the whole
vicious cycle. Japan is a real example and I do not see any reason China can
do better than Japan.
.
you
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
: too much bad loans? Why don't you do a comparison with US and Europe banks.
: Blindly reading news article without doing analysis yourself cannot give you
: a true picture.
: Again, same thing with over investment. You cannot take few investment
: example and think it is like that everywhere in China. Real estate
: investment is already slowed a lot even though demand is still there.
:
: projects.
on its loan books are zombie loans, which is higher than Citi, the zombiest
bank in the U.S.. I know this because I have insider information from this
particular bank.
Investment in excessive roads and bridges are universal in China. Only those
invested in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta may not be called
overinvestment, but they themselves cannot drive the economy to grow. The
three provinces in the Northeast have negative growth rates for the first
six months of this year and the middle part is slowing down. I am not really
talking about real estate investment but it is not helping either. The core
issue is the vested interest that is on the way of reforming to make the
economy more efficient. If this issue cannot be addressed, there is no hope
for China. Its consumers may still drive Chinese economy for a while, but
with very small economic growth this cannot sustain as Chinese consumers
cannot borrow as freely as the U.S.. Eventually all of the bad loans will
show up, making the bank reluctant to lend to anybody. Such reluctance
result in less projects being financed, contributing to slow economic growth
, resulting in more people not being able to repay their loan and the whole
vicious cycle. Japan is a real example and I do not see any reason China can
do better than Japan.
.
you
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
: too much bad loans? Why don't you do a comparison with US and Europe banks.
: Blindly reading news article without doing analysis yourself cannot give you
: a true picture.
: Again, same thing with over investment. You cannot take few investment
: example and think it is like that everywhere in China. Real estate
: investment is already slowed a lot even though demand is still there.
:
: projects.
y*n
27 楼
You are too focused on the bad side which to me is not a big deal. If you
look at US, it has worse situation than China, why invest in U.S. Then? I
will continue invest in both US and China.
牛者见牛，熊者见熊。As long as you know what you are doing, you will make
money.
zombiest
those
called
really
core
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
: What if I tell you for at least one major state-owned bank 60% of the loan
: on its loan books are zombie loans, which is higher than Citi, the zombiest
: bank in the U.S.. I know this because I have insider information from this
: particular bank.
: Investment in excessive roads and bridges are universal in China. Only those
: invested in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta may not be called
: overinvestment, but they themselves cannot drive the economy to grow. The
: three provinces in the Northeast have negative growth rates for the first
: six months of this year and the middle part is slowing down. I am not really
: talking about real estate investment but it is not helping either. The core
look at US, it has worse situation than China, why invest in U.S. Then? I
will continue invest in both US and China.
牛者见牛，熊者见熊。As long as you know what you are doing, you will make
money.
zombiest
those
called
really
core
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
: What if I tell you for at least one major state-owned bank 60% of the loan
: on its loan books are zombie loans, which is higher than Citi, the zombiest
: bank in the U.S.. I know this because I have insider information from this
: particular bank.
: Investment in excessive roads and bridges are universal in China. Only those
: invested in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta may not be called
: overinvestment, but they themselves cannot drive the economy to grow. The
: three provinces in the Northeast have negative growth rates for the first
: six months of this year and the middle part is slowing down. I am not really
: talking about real estate investment but it is not helping either. The core
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